Aplicação de classificadores Bayesianos e regressão logística na análise de desempenho dos alunos de graduação

Este trabalho minera as informações coletadas no processo de vestibular entre 2009 e 2012 para o curso de graduação de administração de empresas da FGV-EAESP, para estimar classificadores capazes de calcular a probabilidade de um novo aluno ter bom desempenho. O processo de KDD (Knowledge Discovery in Database) desenvolvido por Fayyad et al. (1996a) é a base da metodologia adotada e os classificadores serão estimados utilizando duas ferramentas matemáticas. A primeira é a regressão logística, muito usada por instituições financeiras para avaliar se um cliente será capaz de honrar com seus pagamentos e a segunda é a rede Bayesiana, proveniente do campo de inteligência artificial. Este estudo mostre que os dois modelos possuem o mesmo poder discriminatório, gerando resultados semelhantes. Além disso, as informações que influenciam a probabilidade de o aluno ter bom desempenho são a sua idade no ano de ingresso, a quantidade de vezes que ele prestou vestibular da FGV/EAESP antes de ser aprovado, a região do Brasil de onde é proveniente e as notas das provas de matemática fase 01 e fase 02, inglês, ciências humanas e redação. Aparentemente o grau de formação dos pais e o grau de decisão do aluno em estudar na FGV/EAESP não influenciam nessa probabilidade.

Autonomia administrativa financeira e orçamentária das defensorias públicas estaduais: análise e descrição dos seus modelos

Passados mais de dez anos do reconhecimento da autonomia administrativa, financeira e orçamentária às Defensorias Públicas Estaduais, o que se deu através da Emenda Constitucional n° 45/2004, ainda é possível encontrar instituições desta espécie que sofrem com interferências diárias nos mais variados aspectos de sua administração, em total desrespeito ao que determina a nossa Lei Fundamental. Entretanto, curiosamente este problema não tem se mostrado de maneira uniforme no cenário nacional, havendo estados onde as Defensorias Públicas gozam de mais autonomia e prestígio, enquanto existem outros onde estas sofrem para ter igual direito reconhecido. Neste sentido, partindo de um referencial teórico básico sobre autonomia da Defensoria Pública, a presente pesquisa teve por objetivo explorar os elementos que compõe tal conceito, buscando posteriormente verificar e descrever as assimetrias existentes entre os modelos de autonomia encontrados nas Defensorias Públicas estaduais ao redor do país. Para tanto, foram coletados dados através de observação direta, pesquisa documental e entrevistas, os quais foram posteriormente tratados e interpretados através da metodologia da análise de conteúdo. Os resultados obtidos através das consolidações efetuadas no âmbito das cincos categorias de análise propostas permitiram a conclusão de que a assimetria entre os modelos existentes é um fato, sendo perceptível principalmente nas áreas de Administração Financeira e Orçamentária, bem como na Formação da Alta Administração da Instituição. Também foram constatadas duas barreiras fundamentais para a implantação do modelo de autonomia preconizado pelo ordenamento, qual seja, a baixa autonomia na previsão de despesas no processo orçamentário e a ausência de limite próprio de pessoal para a Defensoria Pública na Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal.

Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency less attractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model and estimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from the dates surrounding the monetary policy committee meetings and the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. Indeed, we find that unexpected increases in interest rates tend to lead the Brazilian currency to depreciate. It follows that granting more independence to a central bank that focus solely on inflation is not always a free-lunch.

Comparando a saúde no Brasil com os países da OCDE: explorando dados de saúde pública

A atenção à saúde da população no Brasil gera um grande volume de dados sobre os serviços de saúde prestados. O tratamento adequado destes dados com técnicas de acesso à grande massa de dados pode permitir a extração de informações importantes para um melhor conhecimento do setor saúde. Avaliar o desempenho dos sistemas de saúde através da utilização da massa de dados produzida tem sido uma tendência mundial, uma vez que vários países já mantêm programas de avaliação baseados em dados e indicadores. Neste contexto, A OCDE – Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico, que é uma organização internacional que avalia as políticas econômicas de seus 34 países membros, possui uma publicação bienal, chamada Health at a Glance, que tem por objetivo fazer a comparação dos sistemas de saúde dos países membros da OCDE. Embora o Brasil não seja um membro, a OCDE procura incluí-lo no cálculo de alguns indicadores, quando os dados estão disponíveis, pois considera o Brasil como uma das maiores economias que não é um país membro. O presente estudo tem por objetivo propor e implementar, com base na metodologia da publicação Health at a Glance de 2015, o cálculo para o Brasil de 22 indicadores em saúde que compõem o domínio “utilização de serviços em saúde” da publicação da OCDE. Para isto foi feito um levantamento das principais bases de dados nacionais em saúde disponíveis que posteriormente foram capturadas, conforme necessidade, através de técnicas para acessar e tratar o grande volume de dados em saúde no Brasil. As bases de dados utilizadas são provenientes de três principais fontes remuneração: SUS, planos privados de saúde e outras fontes de remuneração como, por exemplo, planos públicos de saúde, DPVAT e particular. A realização deste trabalho permitiu verificar que os dados em saúde disponíveis publicamente no Brasil podem ser usados na avaliação do desempenho do sistema de saúde, e além de incluir o Brasil no benchmark internacional dos países da OCDE nestes 22 indicadores, promoveu a comparação destes indicadores entre o setor público de saúde do Brasil, o SUS, e o setor de planos privados de saúde, a chamada saúde suplementar. Além disso, também foi possível comparar os indicadores calculados para o SUS para cada UF, demonstrando assim as diferenças na prestação de serviços de saúde nos estados do Brasil para o setor público. A análise dos resultados demonstrou que, em geral, o Brasil comparado com os países da OCDE apresenta um desempenho abaixo da média dos demais países, o que indica necessidade de esforços para atingir um nível mais alto na prestação de serviços em saúde que estão no âmbito de avaliação dos indicadores calculados. Quando segmentado entre SUS e saúde suplementar, a análise dos resultados dos indicadores do Brasil aponta para uma aproximação do desempenho do setor de saúde suplementar em relação à média dos demais países da OCDE, e por outro lado um distanciamento do SUS em relação a esta média. Isto evidencia a diferença no nível de prestação de serviços dentro do Brasil entre o SUS e a saúde suplementar. Por fim, como proposta de melhoria na qualidade dos resultados obtidos neste estudo sugere-se o uso da base de dados do TISS/ANS para as informações provenientes do setor de saúde suplementar, uma vez que o TISS reflete toda a troca de informações entre os prestadores de serviços de saúde e as operadoras de planos privados de saúde para fins de pagamento dos serviços prestados.

Microcrédito emancipatório no nordeste do Brasil? : estudo de caso do Crediamigo Comunidade nos municípios de Caucaia-Ce e Maranguape-Ce

This piece of work consists in a study case of Crediamigo Comunidade, a product from the portfolio of Crediamigo Program of Banco do Nordeste, that uses the methodology of the Comunitary Banks in the concession of low amount loan to poor communities. The main question consists to understand how the Crediamigo Comunidade is characterized faced to the conflict of emancipatory versus liberal paradigms, that exists in the microcredit area. The main objective will analyze how the mechanisms: social capital, empowerment, formation to credit education and better conditions for economic and social issues promoted in the specific objectives of this product, before the dipute between these paradigms. The method adopted analyzed, in a longitudinal perspective, the three years of the product s existence (jun/2005 to jul 2008). Primary and secondary data made possible to identify qualitatively, emancipatory and non emancipatory attributes in the actions and results of Crediamigo Comunidade. It is concluded that the Crediamigo Comunidade works in a liberal logic of the Crediamigo Program, consequently, his focus is not in the emancipation of the poorest clients. The empowerment is individual and not communitary or Freiriano ; the social capital relations enlarges itself in its bounding and bridging ties, but not in its linkage ties, to have access to politic actors and consequently communitary strengthen. All the formation in the Crediamigo is strictly commercial. These characteristics happen by the liberal paradigm in the Crediamigo management and of all of its products, including the Crediamigo Comunidade

Sustentabilidade de EES: contribuições e desafios do PITCPES/UFPA a partir da análise da Cooperativa dos Fruticultores de Abaetetuba COFRUTA

The study aimed to understand how the methodology of hatching contributes to the sustainability of economic enterprises in solidarity. For analysis, we developed a study on the social economy and the incubation methodology, based on the program of teaching, research and extension - Technological Incubator of Popular Cooperatives and Entrepreneurship Solidarity (PITCPES), and as the survey of the Cooperative of Fruit of Abaetetuba - COFRUTA. We started from the exploratory-descriptive approach in a qualitative and quantitative, in order to demonstrate the process of sustainability under the dimensions of different kinds such as: the economic dimension, social dimension, the political dimension, size and scale management training. Based on the analysis of these different dimensions was reached results as: first the recognition that the incubator contributes to the sustainability of COFRUTA, especially with regard to planning, control and the need to diversify production. However, there was suggestion of cooperative for training and technical assistance is continued, to the extent that the performance of projects under the base leaves gaps for the learning and application of social technologies required to the Incubator. It also concluded that the dissertation contributes to the team of the incubator can assess their strengths and weaknesses in their performance

Sustentabilidade de EES: contribuições e desafios do PITCPES/UFPA a partir da análise da Cooperativa dos Fruticultores de Abaetetuba COFRUTA

The study aimed to understand how the methodology of hatching contributes to the sustainability of economic enterprises in solidarity. For analysis, we developed a study on the social economy and the incubation methodology, based on the program of teaching, research and extension - Technological Incubator of Popular Cooperatives and Entrepreneurship Solidarity (PITCPES), and as the survey of the Cooperative of Fruit of Abaetetuba - COFRUTA. We started from the exploratory-descriptive approach in a qualitative and quantitative, in order to demonstrate the process of sustainability under the dimensions of different kinds such as: the economic dimension, social dimension, the political dimension, size and scale management training. Based on the analysis of these different dimensions was reached results as: first the recognition that the incubator contributes to the sustainability of COFRUTA, especially with regard to planning, control and the need to diversify production. However, there was suggestion of cooperative for training and technical assistance is continued, to the extent that the performance of projects under the base leaves gaps for the learning and application of social technologies required to the Incubator. It also concluded that the dissertation contributes to the team of the incubator can assess their strengths and weaknesses in their performance

Processo de implantação de um sistema integrado de gestão em uma organização pública à luz da teoria da hospitalidade :um estudo de caso

In the present time, public organizations are employing more and more solutions that uses information technology in order to ofer more transparency and better services for all citizens. Integrated Systems are IT which carry in their kernel features of integration and the use of a unique database. These systems bring several benefits and face some obstacles that make their adoption difficult. The conversion to a integrated system may take years and, thus, the study of the adoption of this IT in public sector organizations become very stimulant due to some peculiarities of this sector and the features of this technology. First of all, information about the particular integrated system in study and about its process of conversion are offered. Then, the researcher designs the configuration of the conversion process aim of this study the agents envolved and the moments and the tools used to support the process in order to elaborate the methodology of the conversion process understood as the set of procedures and tools used during all the conversion process. After this, the researcher points out, together with all the members of the conversion team, the negative and positive factors during the project. Finally, these factors were analysed through the Hospitality Theory lens which, in the researcher opinion, was very useful to understand the elements, events and moments that interfered in the project. The results consolidated empirically the Hospitality Theory presumptions, showing yet a limitation of this theory in the case in study

Etnografia visual das mangabeiras nas matas do tabuleiro costeiro.

This work is an ethnographic research with collectors women of Mangaba in the village of Ponta Negra in Natal - RN. This Women also known as Mangabeira's women reproduce a practice learned with their ancestors, collecting this fruit in the coastal tablelands forests and latter commercializing it in the local markets. This research uses the methodology of oral history and visual anthropology with presentation of collected images on board. It is intended to emphasize the botanical and environmental aspects of the Mangabeira plant, its ecosystem, territorial, economic and historical aspects of it, also the knowledge of this extractive practice of our immaterial culture.

Mobilidade urbana sustentável em projetos estruturantes: analise urbanística e ambiental do corredor de transporte da Avenida Bernardo Vieira Natal/RN

The search for a sustainable urban mobility, has recast the public policy of transport and movement for all, in order to contribute to the welfare economic, social and environmental. Within this context, has as its main objective review here in the city of Natal in the state of Rio Grande Norte, the deployment of the new road infrastructure of the transport corridor of Bernardo Vieira Avenue and checking at least with regard to urban areas and environmental chosen here, as will indicators to assess sustainable urban mobility, that the theory has been well constructed, but in practice little way to apply the proposed guidelines for sustainability. To achieve this result, is initially a literature review with the principal investigators of the matter, since the concepts of indicators of sustainable urban mobility. And a second time, participating in to the case study, using the methodology of environmental awareness, through analysis photographs, notes and testimony in the study area ace to reach conclusions

Adequação bioclimática para os espaços urbanos abertos do centro de Fortaleza, CE

This research presents a study investigating the correlation between the environmental-physycal charcateristics of cities and the formation of its micro-climates. The study was conducted in the central area of Fortaleza characterized as a stable and consolidated area, where the city originated and currently faces serious problems in its urban dynamics. The points of measurements were determined by the elaboration and analysis of topography maps, height of buildings, land use, type of surface coating and vegetation, following the methodology of Katzschner (1997). A zoning map was then determined, according to common morphological characteristics of the 12 measurement points, which were based on a set of Romero s (2001) bioclimatic criteria. Air measurements, temperature, humidity, intensity and direction of winds were made in transect form in two different circuits in the study area, with six points of data collection in each area, in three different times: 6:00 am, 1:00pm and 7:00pm, during two periods of the year: August 2008 and March 2009. The results verified the influence of different environmental-physical types in the behavior of the climatic variables that were collected. A verticalização tão condenada em algumas situações se bem equilibrada e controlada pode reduzir as temperaturas do ar através do sombreamento dos espaços urbanos e possibilidade de maior permeabilidade a ventilação natural. The highest average air temperature and lower humidity were recorded at the point I at all times. This situation may have been in result of the high density, poor vegetation and extended paving of the ground. According to the results, it s clear the positive influence vegetation has on easing air temperature. Another indicator observed that areas with a greater variation in building heights tend to present decreased average air temperature. High rise structure, planned in accordance to urban air quality parameters, can reduce air temperatures by the shading of urban spaces and the possibility of greater penetration of natural ventilation

Visitabilidade-vivenciabilidade em assentamentos informais : um estudo da acessibilidade de percursos urbanos no Conjunto Santa Terezinha em Fortaleza-CE

This research approaches the issue of accessibility in informal settlements, seeking for the challenges and limits defined by informal urban settings, about the application of accessibility parameters. Take the empirical universe as the Conjunto Santa Terezinha, located in Fortaleza- Ce. Initially, the study presents a reflection about the housing issue in Brazil and the informal settlementes in view of the Right to the City. In this sense, the main references are, the works of Suzanne Pasternak (2008), Nabil Bonduki (1998) and Erminia Maricato (1996-97), among others. Follows with the discussion of the concepts and classifications of this type of settlement, making a content analysis of legislation and regulations relating to accessibility and proposed the discussion of the accessible route as the right strategy for the city. In another step, the methodology of 'walking together' created by Dischinger (2000) was applied in a passage previously chosen, which the researcher follows the disabled person during the journey through city making records like photos and video. The comments and perceptions are compared to the spatial analysis of urban morphology, made from the method of Del Rio (1990) and Panerai (2006), and the parameters of NBR 9050. Knowledge of the area is enriched by the methodology of the production of space made by Henri Lefebvre in his book 'The production of space' (1974) with these categories: space conceived, perceived and lived. Another key reference of this author it s the book 'The Right to the City' (991), which allowed in-depth reflections on the social function of town. In conclusion, the study finds that to guarantee a minimum access conditions in informal sittlements it´s necessary to know the specifics of their morphology, their relations and urban practices in view of the visitability- experiencebility, describing it as complementary concepts

Qualificação de edifícios residenciais verticais em Natal/RN à luz do regulamento técnico da qualidade para o nível de eficiência energética de edificações residenciais (RTQ-R)

The goal of the research was to investigate the energy performance of residential vertical buildings envelope in the hot and humid climate of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, based in the Technical Regulation of Quality for Energy Efficiency Level in Residential Buildings (RTQ -R), launched in 2010. The study pretends to contribute to the development of design strategies appropriate to the specific local climate and the increasing of energy efficiency level of the envelope. The methodological procedures included the survey in 22 (twenty two) residential buildings, the formulation of representative prototypes based on typological and constructives characters researched and the classification of the level of energy efficiency in the envelopment of these prototypes, using as a tool the prescriptive method of the RTQ-R and the parametric analyzes from assigning different values of the following variables: shape of the pavement type; distribution of housing compartments; orientation of the building; area and shading of openings; thermal transmittance, and solar absorptance of opaque materials of the frontage in order to evaluate the influence of these on the envelopment performance. The main results accomplished with this work includes the qualification of vertical residential buildings in Natal/RN; the verification of the adequacy of these buildings to local climate based from the diagnosis of the thermal energy of the envelopment performance, the identification of variables with more significant influence on the prescriptive methodology of RTQ-R and design solutions more favorable to obtain higher levels energy efficiency by this method. Finally, it was verified, that some of these solutions proved contradictory in relation to the recommendations contained in the theoretical approaches regarding environmental comfort in hot and humid weather, which indicates the need for improvement of the prescriptive method RTQ-R and further research on efficient design solutions

A cena contemporânea aos pedaços : observação de um experimento pedagógico

We try to relate this research with other logic, to discover a path of practical approach to approach a creation composed of fragments and a search of parameters for the aesthetics of appropriation. Accordingly, we find relationship with the theater composed of fragments, where different styles are appropriate theatrical and representational styles are merged with each other. Discusses in the first chapter on the theater composed of fragments, and stroll through lanes of the strategies of some directors in the ways of the contemporary scene. In the second chapter we seek procedures and concepts of atmosphere Mikhail Tchekhov (TCHEKHOV, 1996), and the transition from point-to-point by Scott McCloud (2005). In the third part we describe the observation of the experiment conducted by the students of the Bachelor's Degree in Regional Theatre at the University of Cariri in Juazeiro, Ceará, in 2010. Using the methodology of "pesquisa-ação", observing that the scenic writing end of the experiment, called "Toque Me", and the presentation in the cities of Crato and Barbalha, in August 2010, contained elements of the strategies from theater fragmentary scenes and conceptual contents of contemporary theater

Avaliação da biodegradabilidade de petróleo utilizando microrganismos isolados do estuário do Rio Potengi (RN)

The oil activity in the Rio Grande do Norte State (RN) is a permanent threat to coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves, with the possibility of oil spills. In this context, the objective of this study was to evaluate the potential resistance of the mangrove environment of a possible spill. Were selected and isolated microorganisms degrading oil by the technique of enrichment cultures and formation of a bacterial consortium. The kinetic study of the consortium was held in rotary incubator shaken at 150 rpm and 30° C. Samples were taken at intervals of 4 hours for analysis of cell concentration and surface tension. The biodegradation was monitored using two methods of respirometry: manometric (OxiTop-C ®) and conductivimetry, where the biodegradation of oil was estimated indirectly by oxygen consumption and CO2 production, respectively. Furthermore, it was used a full 2² factorial design with triplicate at central point to the runs that used the conductivimetric methodology.. The technique of enrichment cultures allowed to obtain thirteen bacterial strains. Kinetic study of the consortium, we can showed the absence of the lag phase, reaching a maximum cell concentration of 2.55 g / L at 16 h of cultivation and a reduction on surface tension. When we adopted the methodology of OxiTop-C was detected a band indicating biodegradability (1% oil v/v), however when we used the conductivimetry methodology did not observe any band that would indicate effective biodegradation. By monitoring a process of biodegradation is necessary to observe the methodology will be adopted to evaluate the biodegradation process, since for the same conditions adopted different methodologies can produce different results. The oil-degrading isolates from soils of the mangrove estuary Potengi / RN are largely to be used in bioremediation strategies of these places, in the case of a possible oil spill, or it can be used in the treatment of waste oil generated in saline environments, since they are optimized the conditions of the tests so that the efficiency of biodegradation reach the minimum level suggested by the standarts