Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

Unconscious Vigilance: Worldview Defense without Adaptations for Terror, Coalition or Uncertainty Management

Individuals subtly reminded of death, coalitional challenges, or feelings of uncertainty display exaggerated preferences for affirmations and against criticisms of their cultural in-groups. Terror management, coalitional psychology, and uncertainty management theories postulate this “worldview defense” effectas the output of mechanisms evolved either to allay the fear of death, foster social support, or reduce anxiety by increasing adherence to cultural values. In 4 studies, we report evidence for an alternative perspective. We argue that worldview defense owes to unconscious vigilance, a state of accentuatedreactivity to affective targets (which need not relate to cultural worldviews) that follows detection of subtle alarm cues (which need not pertain to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertainty). In Studies 1 and 2, death-primed participants produced exaggerated ratings of worldview-neutral affective targets. In Studies 3 and 4, subliminal threat manipulations unrelated to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertaintyevoked worldview defense. These results are discussed as they inform evolutionary interpretations of worldview defense and future investigations of the influence of unconscious alarm on judgment.

Medical Students' views of a career in Geriatric Medicine; Multi-Centre Qualitative Analysis

Medical students frequently have negative preconceptions of a career in Geriatric Medicine. In ta qualitative analysis of the free text from 789 response from Medical students in Scotland and Northern Ireland, we show that clinical attachment seffectively challenge negative student views and more positive statements about future careers in Geriatric Medicine emerged at the end of the attachment.

TheShifting Sands of Uncertainty: Risk Construction and BSE/vCJD

It is more than a decade since scientists in the UK put forward evidence of a link between the emergence of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) in humans, and a diminishing epidemic of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, or BSE, in cattle. In the wake of this anniversary, the paper revisits two scientific narratives of risk, forged at different points along the developmental pathway of BSE science, including a series of advisory reports provided to the UK government between 1989 and 1994, and a symposium held in 2001 to assess the impact of the Phillips Inquiry. While the primary pathology of BSE became apparent relatively early on, uncertainties remain about the origins of BSE and its human variant, vCJD. The paper examines the handling of this sensitivity, and its communication, within these key documents, noting changes in patterns of uncertainty construction over time.