Quantitative integration of geophysical and hydraulic data : from the local towards the regional scale range

Des progrès significatifs ont été réalisés dans le domaine de l'intégration quantitative des données géophysique et hydrologique l'échelle locale. Cependant, l'extension à de plus grandes échelles des approches correspondantes constitue encore un défi majeur. Il est néanmoins extrêmement important de relever ce défi pour développer des modèles fiables de flux des eaux souterraines et de transport de contaminant. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé une technique d'intégration des données hydrogéophysiques basée sur une procédure bayésienne de simulation séquentielle en deux étapes. Cette procédure vise des problèmes à plus grande échelle. L'objectif est de simuler la distribution d'un paramètre hydraulique cible à partir, d'une part, de mesures d'un paramètre géophysique pertinent qui couvrent l'espace de manière exhaustive, mais avec une faible résolution (spatiale) et, d'autre part, de mesures locales de très haute résolution des mêmes paramètres géophysique et hydraulique. Pour cela, mon algorithme lie dans un premier temps les données géophysiques de faible et de haute résolution à travers une procédure de réduction déchelle. Les données géophysiques régionales réduites sont ensuite reliées au champ du paramètre hydraulique à haute résolution. J'illustre d'abord l'application de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données à une base de données synthétiques réaliste. Celle-ci est constituée de mesures de conductivité hydraulique et électrique de haute résolution réalisées dans les mêmes forages ainsi que destimations des conductivités électriques obtenues à partir de mesures de tomographic de résistivité électrique (ERT) sur l'ensemble de l'espace. Ces dernières mesures ont une faible résolution spatiale. La viabilité globale de cette méthode est testée en effectuant les simulations de flux et de transport au travers du modèle original du champ de conductivité hydraulique ainsi que du modèle simulé. Les simulations sont alors comparées. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la procédure dintégration des données proposée permet d'obtenir des estimations de la conductivité en adéquation avec la structure à grande échelle ainsi que des predictions fiables des caractéristiques de transports sur des distances de moyenne à grande échelle. Les résultats correspondant au scénario de terrain indiquent que l'approche d'intégration des données nouvellement mise au point est capable d'appréhender correctement les hétérogénéitées à petite échelle aussi bien que les tendances à gande échelle du champ hydraulique prévalent. Les résultats montrent également une flexibilté remarquable et une robustesse de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données. De ce fait, elle est susceptible d'être appliquée à un large éventail de données géophysiques et hydrologiques, à toutes les gammes déchelles. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'évalue en détail la viabilité du réechantillonnage geostatique séquentiel comme mécanisme de proposition pour les méthodes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) appliquées à des probmes inverses géophysiques et hydrologiques de grande dimension . L'objectif est de permettre une quantification plus précise et plus réaliste des incertitudes associées aux modèles obtenus. En considérant une série dexemples de tomographic radar puits à puits, j'étudie deux classes de stratégies de rééchantillonnage spatial en considérant leur habilité à générer efficacement et précisément des réalisations de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, malgré sa popularité, le réechantillonnage séquentiel est plutôt inefficace à générer des échantillons postérieurs indépendants pour des études de cas synthétiques réalistes, notamment pour le cas assez communs et importants où il existe de fortes corrélations spatiales entre le modèle et les paramètres. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé un nouvelle approche de perturbation basée sur une déformation progressive. Cette approche est flexible en ce qui concerne le nombre de paramètres du modèle et lintensité de la perturbation. Par rapport au rééchantillonage séquentiel, cette nouvelle approche s'avère être très efficace pour diminuer le nombre requis d'itérations pour générer des échantillons indépendants à partir de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. - Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending corresponding approaches beyond the local scale still represents a major challenge, yet is critically important for the development of reliable groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. To address this issue, I have developed a hydrogeophysical data integration technique based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation procedure that is specifically targeted towards larger-scale problems. The objective is to simulate the distribution of a target hydraulic parameter based on spatially exhaustive, but poorly resolved, measurements of a pertinent geophysical parameter and locally highly resolved, but spatially sparse, measurements of the considered geophysical and hydraulic parameters. To this end, my algorithm links the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a downscaling procedure before relating the downscaled regional-scale geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic parameter field. I first illustrate the application of this novel data integration approach to a realistic synthetic database consisting of collocated high-resolution borehole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities and spatially exhaustive, low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The overall viability of this method is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulations through the original and simulated hydraulic conductivity fields. The corresponding results indicate that the proposed data integration procedure does indeed allow for obtaining faithful estimates of the larger-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over medium- to regional-scale distances. The approach is then applied to a corresponding field scenario consisting of collocated high- resolution measurements of the electrical conductivity, as measured using a cone penetrometer testing (CPT) system, and the hydraulic conductivity, as estimated from electromagnetic flowmeter and slug test measurements, in combination with spatially exhaustive low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The corresponding results indicate that the newly developed data integration approach is indeed capable of adequately capturing both the small-scale heterogeneity as well as the larger-scale trend of the prevailing hydraulic conductivity field. The results also indicate that this novel data integration approach is remarkably flexible and robust and hence can be expected to be applicable to a wide range of geophysical and hydrological data at all scale ranges. In the second part of my thesis, I evaluate in detail the viability of sequential geostatistical resampling as a proposal mechanism for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods applied to high-dimensional geophysical and hydrological inverse problems in order to allow for a more accurate and realistic quantification of the uncertainty associated with the thus inferred models. Focusing on a series of pertinent crosshole georadar tomographic examples, I investigated two classes of geostatistical resampling strategies with regard to their ability to efficiently and accurately generate independent realizations from the Bayesian posterior distribution. The corresponding results indicate that, despite its popularity, sequential resampling is rather inefficient at drawing independent posterior samples for realistic synthetic case studies, notably for the practically common and important scenario of pronounced spatial correlation between model parameters. To address this issue, I have developed a new gradual-deformation-based perturbation approach, which is flexible with regard to the number of model parameters as well as the perturbation strength. Compared to sequential resampling, this newly proposed approach was proven to be highly effective in decreasing the number of iterations required for drawing independent samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.

Immunodéficience commune variable: ce qu'il faut savoir [Common variable immune deficiency: what you need to know].

Common variable immune deficiency is the most frequent primary immune deficiency, characterized mainly by a disorder of B lymphocytes differentiation and a deficit in immunoglobulins. The clinical manifestations include recurrent infections, non-infectious lung and digestive involvements, autoimmune diseases, and an increased susceptibility to cancers. Recent breakthroughs have been made in the understanding of some genetic mechanisms of the disease. Replacement therapy with intravenous immunoglobulins remains the treatment of choice, which allows significant improvement in the survival and quality of life. However progress should be made in the understanding of the pathophysiology and in the early detection of this disease, since a delay in the diagnosis may have harmful consequences in terms of morbidity and mortality.

Brazilian distribution of Amblyomma varium Koch, 1844 (Acari: Ixodidae), a common parasite of sloths (Mammalia: Xenarthra)

Amblyomma varium, commonly known in Brazil as the "carrapato-gigante-da-preguiça" (sloth's giant tick) is found from southern Central America to Argentina. The present study adds information on the geographical distribution of A. varium, as well as on their hosts, based on material deposited in the main Brazilian collections and on the available literature. Eighty-two vials, containing 191 adult specimens, deposited in five Acari collections between 1930 and 2001, were examined. These vials included data on the host and collection localities. The biology of A. varium is unknown. However it is known that, during the adult stage, the tick presents a high host specificity and is found almost exclusively on the sloths Bradypus tridactylus, B. variegatus, B.torquatus (Bradypodidae), Choloepus hoffmanni and C. didactylus (Megalonychidae). Based on the material examined, the states of Rondônia, Amazonas, Bahia and Alagoas are newly assigned to geographic distribution of A. varium in Brazil.

The tangible common denominator of substance use disorders: a reply to commentaries to Rehm et al. (2013a).

In response to our suggestion to define substance use disorders via 'heavy use over time', theoretical and conceptual issues, measurement problems and implications for stigma and clinical practice were raised. With respect to theoretical and conceptual issues, no other criterion has been shown, which would improve the definition. Moreover, heavy use over time is shown to be highly correlated with number of criteria in current DSM-5. Measurement of heavy use over time is simple and while there will be some underestimation or misrepresentation of actual levels in clinical practice, this is not different from the status quo and measurement of current criteria. As regards to stigma, research has shown that a truly dimensional concept can help reduce stigma. In conclusion, 'heavy use over time' as a tangible common denominator should be seriously considered as definition for substance use disorder.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of common variant differences between men and women.

The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ~115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits.

The occurrence of intra-operative hypotension varies between hospitals: observational analysis of over 147000 anaesthesia

Background: Hypotension, a common intra-operative incident, bears an important potential for morbidity. It is most often manageable and sometimes preventable, which renders its study important. Therefore, we aimed at examining hospital variations in the occurrence of intraoperative hypotension and its predictors. As secondary endpoints, we determined to what extent hypotension relates to the risk of postoperative incidents and death. Methods: We used the Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland, built on routinely and prospectively collected data on all anaesthesias in 21 hospitals. The three outcomes were assessed using multi-level logistic regression models. Results: Among 147573 anaesthesia, hypotension ranged from 0.6 to 5.2% in participating hospitals, and from 0.3 up to 12% in different surgical specialties. Most (73.4%) were minor single events. Age, ASA status, combined general and regional anaesthesia techniques, duration of surgery, and hospitalization were significantly associated to hypotension. Although significantly associated, the emergency status of the surgery had a weaker effect. Hospitals' Odds Ratios for hypotension varied between 0.12 to 2.50 (p ≤0.001) with respect to the mean prevalence of 3.1%, even after adjusting for patient and anaesthesia factors, and for type of surgery. At least one postoperative incident occurred in 9.7% of the interventions, including 0.03% deaths. Intra-operative hypotension was associated with higher risk of post-operative incidents and death. Conclusions: Wide variations in the occurrence of hypotension amongst hospitals remain after adjustment for risk factors. Although differential reporting from hospitals may exist, variations in anesthesia techniques and blood pressure maintenance could have also contributed. Intra-operative hypotension is associated with morbidities and sometimes death, and constant vigilance must thus be advocated.

A study of the cambial zone and conductive phloem of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using an image analysis method. I. Influence of tree age on the structure

Quantification is a major problem when using histology to study the influence of ecological factors on tree structure. This paper presents a method to prepare and to analyse transverse sections of cambial zone and of conductive phloem in bark samples. The following paper (II) presents the automated measurement procedure. Part I here describes and discusses the preparation method, and the influence of tree age on the observed structure. Highly contrasted images of samples extracted at breast height during dormancy were analysed with an automatic image analyser. Between three young (38 years) and three old (147 years) trees, age-related differences were identified by size and shape parameters, at both cell and tissue levels. In the cambial zone, older trees had larger and more rectangular fusiform initials. In the phloem, sieve tubes were also larger, but their shape did not change and the area for sap conduction was similar in both categories. Nevertheless, alterations were limited, and demanded statistical analysis to be identified and ascertained. The physiological implications of the structural changes are discussed.

Effects of brood size manipulation and common origin on phenotype and telomere length in nestling collared flycatchers.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that telomere length is a good predictor of life expectancy, especially early in life, thus calling for determining the factors that affect telomere length at this stage. Here, we investigated the relative influence of early growth conditions and origin (genetics and early maternal effects) on telomere length of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) at fledging. We experimentally transferred hatchlings among brood triplets to create reduced, control (i.e. unchanged final nestling number) and enlarged broods. RESULTS: Although our treatment significantly affected body mass at fledging, we found no evidence that increased sibling competition affected nestling tarsus length and telomere length. However, mixed models showed that brood triplets explained a significant part of the variance in body mass (18%) and telomere length (19%), but not tarsus length (13%), emphasizing that unmanipulated early environmental factors influenced telomere length. These models also revealed low, but significant, heritability of telomere length (h(2) = 0.09). For comparison, the heritability of nestling body mass and tarsus length was 0.36 and 0.39, respectively, which was in the range of previously published estimates for those two traits in this species. CONCLUSION: Those findings in a wild bird population demonstrate that telomere length at the end of the growth period is weakly, but significantly, determined by genetic and/or maternal factors taking place before hatching. However, we found no evidence that the brood size manipulation experiment, and by extension the early growth conditions, influenced nestling telomere length. The weak heritability of telomere length suggests a close association with fitness in natural populations.

Instrumental leadership: Measurement and extension of transformational-transactional leadership theory.

Leaders must scan the internal and external environment, chart strategic and task objectives, and provide performance feedback. These instrumental leadership (IL) functions go beyond the motivational and quid-pro quo leader behaviors that comprise the full-range-transformational, transactional, and laissez faire-leadership model. In four studies we examined the construct validity of IL. We found evidence for a four-factor IL model that was highly prototypical of good leadership. IL predicted top-level leader emergence controlling for the full-range factors, initiating structure, and consideration. It also explained unique variance in outcomes beyond the full-range factors; the effects of transformational leadership were vastly overstated when IL was omitted from the model. We discuss the importance of a "fuller full-range" leadership theory for theory and practice. We also showcase our methodological contributions regarding corrections for common method variance (i.e., endogeneity) bias using two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression and Monte Carlo split-sample designs.

Growing up in Ireland. Key findings: infant cohort (at 3 years).

 The latest results from the study paint a picture of how these families are faring across a range of areas in their lives including their health, family life and financial and economic circumstances. In general the findings show that three-year-olds in Ireland are in good health with a few notable public health and related issues (including overweight and obesity), there is overall stability in family structures over the short term and that the recession has had a substantial effect on families with young children over the last number of years. These are the first longitudinal findings from the study. The first wave of fieldwork with the families of the Infant Cohort included approximately 11,100 nine-month-olds, their parents and carers. Interviews began in September 2008 and were completed in March 2009. Interviews for the second round of interviews with this cohort took place between January and August 2011. A total of 90% of the original sample of nine-month-olds were successfully re-interviewed. (A full download of the results released today, presented in three briefing documents can be found by clicking here. Key findings include: Health â?¢ Most of the children were described as being in good health; 75% were rated as very healthy and a further 23% were rated as healthy, but a few minor problems. Girls were more likely to be reported as very healthy (78%) compared with boys (72%). â?¢ One in four or almost one quarter of three-year-old children were overweight (19%) or obese (6%). â?¢ Childrenâ?Ts weight was related to household social class. 5% of children in families in the professional/managerial group were classified as obese at three years of age compared with 9% of those in the most disadvantaged social class group. However, at least one-fifth of children in every social class were overweight. â?¢ Childrens consumption of energy-dense foods such as crisps, sweets, chips, and non-diet fizzy drinks increased as parental education fell. 63% of children whose mother had a lower secondary education or less ate at least one portion of crisps compared with 36% of those from degree-level backgrounds, although consumption of biscuits/chocolates was over 70% for both groups of children. â?¢ Two-thirds (66%) of three-year-olds had received at least one course of antibiotics in the 12 months preceding the interview. Children with a full medical card (35% of the sample) or a GP-only medical card (5% of the sample) were more likely to have received a course of antibiotics than â?¢ Children with a full medical card received a higher number of antibiotic courses on average (2.6) compared with those without a medical card (2.1). â?¢ Just under 16% of three-year-old children were reported as having at least one longstanding illness, condition or disability. The most commonly reported illness types included Asthma (5.8%), Eczema/Skin allergies (3.9%) and Food/digestive allergies (1.2%) Family Life and Childcare â?¢ While the overall distribution of family structure was stable, there have been transitions from one-parent families to two-parent families and vice-versa over the 27 months between interview â?" approximately 2 to 3 percent in each direction. â?¢ 50% of three year olds were in some form of non-parental childcare for eight or more hours a week. The most common form used was centre-based childcare which almost tripled between nine months and three years, from 11% to 30%. â?¢ A similar percentage of grandparents were caring for children at both nine months and three years, 12% and 11% respectively. A total of 10% of three-year-olds were being minded by a childminder, an increase of 3 percentage points from when the children were nine months of age. â?¢ Children who were in some form of non-parental childcare were spending an average of 23 hours a week in their main type of childcare. â?¢ At time of interview the vast majority of mothers reported that they had regular contact with the Study Childâ?Ts grandparents (91%). In offering support to parents, grandparents were most likely to babysit (50%), and buy clothes (40%) at least on a monthly basis. One-parent families were more likely than two-parent families to receive financial support from grandparents with just under one-third (66%) of one-parent families receiving financial support from grandparents at least once every three months. â?¢ The most frequently used discipline technique was â?~discussing or explaining why the behaviour was wrongâ?T, with 63% of mothers saying they always did this. â?¢ 12% of mothers said they used â?~smackingâ?T as a form of discipline now and again and less than 1% used â?~smackingâ?T as a form of discipline more frequently. Over half reported that they never smacked the Study Child. Financial and Economic Circumstances â?¢ Just over half (53%) of mothers of three-year-olds worked outside the home, 38% said they were on home duties and 6% said they were unemployed. â?¢ The biggest change in terms of the work status of three-year-oldsâ?T parents was an increase in the percentage of unemployed fathers â?" 6% when the child was nine months rising to almost 14% when s/he was three years of age. â?¢ 61% of families of three-year-olds reported experiencing difficulties in making â?~ends meetâ?T. This was a substantial increase from 44% in the first round of interviews when the children were nine-months-old. â?¢ Almost two thirds (63%) of all families with three-year-olds reported that the recession had had a very significant or significant effect on them. â?¢ The most frequently recorded effects were: a reduction in wages (63%); canâ?Tt afford luxuries (54%), social welfare reduction (53%) and canâ?Tt afford/cut back on basics (32%). Growing Up in Ireland is a Government funded study tracking the development of two nationally representative cohorts of children: an Infant Cohort which was interviewed initially at nine months and subsequently at three years of age; and a Child Cohort which was interviewed initially at nine years and subsequently at 13 years of age. The study is being conducted by a consortium of researchers led by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Trinity College Dublin. For Further Information Please Contact: Jillian Heffernan Communications Officer, Growing Up in Ireland Tel: 01 896 3378 Mobile: 087 9016880This resource was contributed to our repository by the National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Molecular differentiation of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) benarrochi and An. (N.) oswaldoi from Southern Colombia

Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) benarrochi, An. (N.) oswaldoi, and An. (N.) rangeli are the most common anthropophilic mosquitoes in the southern Colombian state of Putumayo. Adult females are most commonly collected in epidemiological studies, and this stage poses significant problems for correct identification, due to overlapping inter-specific morphological characters. Although An. rangeli is easy to identify, the morphological variant of An. benarrochi found in the region and An. oswaldoi are not always easy to separate. Herein we provide a rapid molecular method to distinguish these two species in Southern Colombia. Sequence data for the second internal transcribed spacer (ITS2) region of rDNA was generated for link-reared progeny of An. benarrochi and An. oswaldoi, that had been identified using all life stages. ITS2 sequences were 540 bp in length in An. benarrochi (n = 9) and 531 bp in An. oswaldoi (n = 7). Sequences showed no intra-specific variation and ungapped inter-specific sequence divergence was 6.4%. Species diagnostic banding patterns were recovered following digestion of the ITS2 amplicons with the enzyme Hae III as follows: An. benarrochi (365, 137, and 38 bp) and An. oswaldoi (493 and 38 bp). This polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) assay provides rapid, accurate, and inexpensive species diagnosis of adult females. This will benefit future epidemiological studies and, as PCR amplification can be achieved using a single mosquito leg, the remaining specimen can be either retained as a morphological voucher or further used in vector incrimination studies. That An. benarrochi comprises a complex of at least two species across Latin America is discussed.

Accidents and Safety - Ageing in Ireland Fact File No. 14

Accidents and SafetyAlthough the number of deaths caused by accidents has fallen by 37% across all age groups in Ireland over the past twenty years, accidents and falls continue to be relatively common causes of death and injury among older people, often resulting in serious longterm difficulties and even premature death. Consequently, the reduction of accidents in the older population is considered to be an important factor in promoting the general well-being of older people. The 1998 Health Promotion Strategy for Older People, Adding years to life, life to years, which was formulated by the National Council on Ageing and OlderPeople in co-operation with the Department of Health and Children, set a target to reduce the death rate from all accidents and their adverse effects in people aged 65 and over by at least 17% in the year 2005. It also set a target of reducing hospital admissions due to falls in people aged 65 and over by at least 17% in the same year.����

A survey on Triatoma dimidiata in an urban area of the province of Heredia, Costa Rica

Triatoma dimidiata has been found in several cities and towns of those countries where the insect is a domestic or peridomestic pest. In Central America, urban infestations occur in the capitals of at least five countries. During 2001 and 2002 a survey was carried out in the county of San Rafael, Heredia province, located 15 km northwest of San José, capital of Costa Rica, in order to determine the degree of infestation by T. dimidiata in an entire city block. Six peridomestic colonies of the insect were detected in the backyards of eight households. The ecotopes occupied by the insects consisted of store rooms with old objects, wood piles or firewood, and chicken coops. A total of 1917 insects were found in the six foci, during two sampling periods, and a mean infection rate by Trypanosoma cruzi of 28.4% was found in 1718 insects examined. The largest colony found in one of the households yielded 872 insects that were thriving mainly at the expenses of two dogs. Opossums and adult insects were common visitors of the houses and it became evident that this marsupial is closely related to the peridomestic cycle of the Chagas disease agent. Lack of colonization of the insect inside the human dwellings is explained by the type of construction and good sanitary conditions of the houses, in contrast to the situation in most peridomiciliary areas. Stomach blood samples from the insects showed that the main hosts were, in order of decreasing frequency: rodents, dogs, fowl, humans, opossums, and cats. The fact that no indication of infection with Chagas disease could be detected in the human occupants of the infested houses, vis a vis the high infection rate in dogs, is discussed.