Bayesian estimation of co-integrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates.

Threshold Error Correction Models are used to analyse the term structure of interest Rates. The paper develops and uses a generalisation of existing models that encompasses both the Band and Equilibrium threshold models of [Balke and Fomby ((1997) Threshold cointegration. Int Econ Rev 38(3):627–645)] and estimates this model using a Bayesian approach. Evidence is found for threshold effects in pairs of longer rates but not in pairs of short rates. The Band threshold model is supported in preference to the Equilibrium model.

The 'direct costs' of livestock disease: The development of a system of models for the analysis of 30 endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain

The 'direct costs' attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost-benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.

Updated estimates of the costs associated with thirty four endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain: A note

This Note outlines the further development of a system of models for the estimation of the costs of livestock diseases first presented by Bennett (2003). The models have been developed to provide updated and improved estimates of the costs associated with 34 endemic diseases of livestock in Great Britain, using border prices and including assessments of the impact of diseases on human health and animal welfare. Results show that, of the diseases studied, mastitis has the highest costs for cattle diseases, enzootic abortion for sheep diseases, swine influenza for pig diseases and salmonellosis for poultry diseases.

Farm costs associated with premovement testing for bovine tuberculosis

Sixty cattle farmers in England were questioned about the costs associated with premovement testing for bovine tuberculosis (TB). On average, the farmers had premovement tested 2-45 times in the previous 12 months, but the majority had tested only once. An average of 28.6 animals were tested on each occasion, but there were wide variations. The average farm labour costs were (sic)4.00 per animal tested, veterinary costs were (sic)4.33 and other costs were (sic)0.51, giving a total cost of (sic)8.84, but there were wide variations between farms, and many incurred costs of more than (sic)20 per animal. A majority of the farmers also cited disruption to the farm business or missed market opportunities as costs, but few could estimate their financial cost. Most of the farmers thought that premovement testing was a cost burden on their business, and over half thought It was not an effective policy to control bovine TB.

Costs to farmers of a tuberculosis breakdown

An on-farm survey of 151 cattle farmers who had experienced a bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) breakdown on their farms was undertaken in 2003 to assess the costs associated with the breakdown. In 90 per cent of cases the cost was estimated to be less than 18,513 pound for dairy herds and less than El 1,462 for beef herds, but with a range from 229 pound to 103,817 pound. The main cost was the slaughter of reactor cattle. For the majority of the farmers, the compensation payments seemed to meet most of the costs of their breakdowns, although a majority was still left with net losses.

The costs and benefits of digital dermatitis control on UK dairy farms

Digital dermatitis is a significant problem in UK dairy herds and the cost to farmers has not yet been fully quantified. Under the current farm health planning initiative there is a need to demonstrate to farmers the costs and benefits of disease control. This paper presents the first attempt to quantify the costs and benefits of digital dermatitis control on UK dairy farms through the use of an interactive model.

Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting feed quality - chemical analysis and in vitro evaluation

As the ideal method of assessing the nutritive value of a feedstuff, namely offering it to the appropriate class of animal and recording the production response obtained, is neither practical nor cost effective a range of feed evaluation techniques have been developed. Each of these balances some degree of compromise with the practical situation against data generation. However, due to the impact of animal-feed interactions over and above that of feed composition, the target animal remains the ultimate arbitrator of nutritional value. In this review current in vitro feed evaluation techniques are examined according to the degree of animal-feed interaction. Chemical analysis provides absolute values and therefore differs from the majority of in vitro methods that simply rank feeds. However, with no host animal involvement, estimates of nutritional value are inferred by statistical association. In addition given the costs involved, the practical value of many analyses conducted should be reviewed. The in sacco technique has made a substantial contribution to both understanding rumen microbial degradative processes and the rapid evaluation of feeds, especially in developing countries. However, the numerous shortfalls of the technique, common to many in vitro methods, the desire to eliminate the use of surgically modified animals for routine feed evaluation, paralleled with improvements in in vitro techniques, will see this technique increasingly replaced. The majority of in vitro systems use substrate disappearance to assess degradation, however, this provides no information regarding the quantity of derived end-products available to the host animal. As measurement of volatile fatty acids or microbial biomass production greatly increases analytical costs, fermentation gas release, a simple and non-destructive measurement, has been used as an alternative. However, as gas release alone is of little use, gas-based systems, where both degradation and fermentation gas release are measured simultaneously, are attracting considerable interest. Alternative microbial inocula are being considered, as is the potential of using multi-enzyme systems to examine degradation dynamics. It is concluded that while chemical analysis will continue to form an indispensable part of feed evaluation, enhanced use will be made of increasingly complex in vitro systems. It is vital, however, the function and limitations of each methodology are fully understood and that the temptation to over-interpret the data is avoided so as to draw the appropriate conclusions. With careful selection and correct application in vitro systems offer powerful research tools with which to evaluate feedstuffs. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

The potential for competitive and healthy food chains of benefit to the countryside

Agricultural policy liberalisation, concern about unhealthy diets and growing recognition of the importance of sustainable land use have fostered interest in the development of competitive food chains based around products that are beneficial to the rural environment. We review the potential for foods with enhanced health attributes based on alternative varieties/breeds and production systems to traditional agriculture which has been predominantly motivated by yields. We concentrate on soft fruit, which is an important source of polyphenols, and grazing livestock systems that have the potential for improving fatty acid profiles in meat products and find there to be clear scientific potential, but limited research to date. Consumer research suggests considerable acceptance of such products and willingness to pay sufficient to cover additional production costs. Purchase of such foods could have major implications for agricultural land use and the rural environment. There is little research to date on specific healthier food products, but spatially explicit models are being developed to assess land use and environmental implications of changing demand and husbandry methods.

Fitness costs of dispersal in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

The costs of dispersal are an important factor promoting natal philopatry, thereby encouraging the formation of social groups. The red fox, Vulpes vulpes, exhibits a highly flexible social system and one that is thought to represent a possible stage in the evolution of more complex patterns of group-living. Although the potential benefits accruing to philopatric offspring have previously been studied in this species, the potential costs of dispersal have received less attention. We contrasted survival rates, nutritional status, injuries and reproductive output of dispersing and non-dispersing male and female foxes in an urban population to assess the relative costs of dispersal versus natal philopatry. Mortality rates were not significantly higher for dispersing foxes, either in the short- or long-term. There was no evidence of increased nutritional stress in dispersing individuals. Dispersing individuals did, however, exhibit greater levels of wounding, although this did not appear to affect survival. Dispersing females were more likely to miss a breeding opportunity early in their reproductive lifespan. In contrast, both dispersing and non-dispersing males were unlikely to breed in their first year. We conclude that the major fitness component in females affected by dispersing is age at first reproduction.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

The costs and consequences of parasitoid attack for the predatory hoverfly, Episyrphus balteatus

Question: What are the life-history costs for a predatory insect of surviving parasitoid attack, and can parasitoid attack alter predator-prey interactions? Hypotheses: Survivorship is influenced by host age. Hosts that suffer parasitoid attack grow more slowly and consume fewer prey. Those that survive attack are smaller as adults and show reduced survivorship. Organisms: The aphidophagous hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, its endoparasitoid wasp Diplazon laetatorius and its prey, the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Site of experiments: All experiments were conducted in controlled temperature rooms and chambers in the laboratory. Methods: Episyrphus balteatus larvae of each instar were exposed to attack by Diplazon laetatorius, then dissected to measure the encapsulation response (a measure of immunity). Second instar larvae were either attacked or not attacked by D. laetatorius. Their development rates and numbers of prey consumed were noted. The size and survivorship of surviving (immune) and control hoverflies were compared following eclosion. Conclusions: Successful immune response increased with larval age (first instar 0%, second instar 40%, third instar 100% survival). Second instar larvae that successfully resisted parasitoid attack were larger as pupae (but not as adults) and showed reduced adult survivorship. Female adult survivors were more likely than male survivors to have died within 16 days of eclosion, but there was no difference between unattacked male and female control hoverflies. Attacked larvae, irrespective of immune status, consumed fewer aphids than unattacked individuals. Episyrphus balteatus suffers significant costs of resisting parasitoid attack, and parasitoid attack can reduce the top-down effects of an insect predator, irrespective of whether the host mounts an immune response or not.