843 resultados para inflation bias
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Background and Purpose The glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor performs an important role in glycaemic control, stimulating the release of insulin. It is an attractive target for treating type 2 diabetes. Recently, several reports of adverse side effects following prolonged use of GLP-1 receptor therapies have emerged: most likely due to an incomplete understanding of signalling complexities. Experimental Approach We describe the expression of the GLP-1 receptor in a panel of modified yeast strains that couple receptor activation to cell growth via single Gα/yeast chimeras. This assay enables the study of individual ligand-receptor G protein coupling preferences and the quantification of the effect of GLP-1 receptor ligands on G protein selectivity. Key Results The GLP-1 receptor functionally coupled to the chimeras representing the human Gαs, Gαi and Gαq subunits. Calculation of the dissociation constant for a receptor antagonist, exendin-3 revealed no significant difference between the two systems. We obtained previously unobserved differences in G protein signalling bias for clinically relevant therapeutic agents, liraglutide and exenatide; the latter displaying significant bias for the Gαi pathway. We extended the use of the system to investigate small-molecule allosteric compounds and the closely related glucagon receptor. Conclusions and Implications These results provide a better understanding of the molecular events involved in GLP-1 receptor pleiotropic signalling and establish the yeast platform as a robust tool to screen for more selective, efficacious compounds acting at this important class of receptors in the future. © 2014 The Authors. British Journal of Pharmacology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The British Pharmacological Society.
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Impaired facial expression recognition has been associated with features of major depression, which could underlie some of the difficulties in social interactions in these patients. Patients with major depressive disorder and age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers judged the emotion of 100 facial stimuli displaying different intensities of sadness and happiness and neutral expressions presented for short (100 ms) and long (2,000 ms) durations. Compared with healthy volunteers, depressed patients demonstrated subtle impairments in discrimination accuracy and a predominant bias away from the identification as happy of mildly happy expressions. The authors suggest that, in depressed patients, the inability to accurately identify subtle changes in facial expression displayed by others in social situations may underlie the impaired interpersonal functioning.
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This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.
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The paper presents experience in teaching of knowledge and ontological engineering. The teaching framework is targeted on the development of cognitive skills that will allow facilitating the process of knowledge elicitation, structuring and ontology development for scaffolding students’ research. The structuring procedure is the kernel of ontological engineering. The 5-steps ontology designing process is described. Special stress is put on “beautification” principles of ontology creating. The academic curriculum includes interactive game-format training of lateral thinking, interpersonal cognitive intellect and visual mind mapping techniques.
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This paper develops a theoretical analysis of the tradeoff between carrier suppression and nonlinearities induced by optical IQ modulators in direct-detection subcarrier multiplexing systems. The tradeoff is obtained by examining the influence of the bias conditions of the modulator on the transmitted single side band signal. The frequency components in the electric field and the associated photocurrent at the output of the IQ modulator are derived mathematically. For any frequency plan, the optimum bias point can be identified by calculating the sensitivity gain for every subchannel. A setup composed of subcarriers located at multiples of the data rate ensures that the effects of intermodulation distortion are studied in the most suitable conditions. Experimental tests with up to five QPSK electrical subchannels are performed to verify the mathematical model and validate the predicted gains in sensitivity.
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When we see a stranger's face we quickly form impressions of his or her personality, and expectations of how the stranger might behave. Might these intuitive character judgements bias source monitoring? Participants read headlines "reported" by a trustworthy- and an untrustworthy-looking reporter. Subsequently, participants recalled which reporter provided each headline. Source memory for likely-sounding headlines was most accurate when a trustworthy-looking reporter had provided the headlines. Conversely, source memory for unlikely-sounding headlines was most accurate when an untrustworthy-looking reporter had provided the headlines. This bias appeared to be driven by the use of decision criteria during retrieval rather than differences in memory encoding. Nevertheless, the bias was apparently unrelated to variations in subjective confidence. These results show for the first time that intuitive, stereotyped judgements of others' appearance can bias memory attributions analogously to the biases that occur when people receive explicit information to distinguish sources. We suggest possible real-life consequences of these stereotype-driven source-monitoring biases. © 2010 Psychology Press.
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The description of the support system for marking decision in terms of prognosing the inflation level based on the multifactor dependence represented by the decision – marking “tree” is given in the paper. The interrelation of factors affecting the inflation level – economic, financial, political, socio-demographic ones, is considered. The perspectives for developing the method of decision – marking “tree”, and pointing out the so- called “narrow” spaces and further analysis of possible scenarios for inflation level prognosing in particular, are defined.
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Similar to classic Signal Detection Theory (SDT), recent optimal Binary Signal Detection Theory (BSDT) and based on it Neural Network Assembly Memory Model (NNAMM) can successfully reproduce Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves although BSDT/NNAMM parameters (intensity of cue and neuron threshold) and classic SDT parameters (perception distance and response bias) are essentially different. In present work BSDT/NNAMM optimal likelihood and posterior probabilities are analytically analyzed and used to generate ROCs and modified (posterior) mROCs, optimal overall likelihood and posterior. It is shown that for the description of basic discrimination experiments in psychophysics within the BSDT a ‘neural space’ can be introduced where sensory stimuli as neural codes are represented and decision processes are defined, the BSDT’s isobias curves can simultaneously be interpreted as universal psychometric functions satisfying the Neyman-Pearson objective, the just noticeable difference (jnd) can be defined and interpreted as an atom of experience, and near-neutral values of biases are observers’ natural choice. The uniformity or no-priming hypotheses, concerning the ‘in-mind’ distribution of false-alarm probabilities during ROC or overall probability estimations, is introduced. The BSDT’s and classic SDT’s sensitivity, bias, their ROC and decision spaces are compared.
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In three experiments we investigated the impact that exposure to counter-stereotypes has on emotional reactions to outgroups. In Experiment 1, thinking about gender counter-stereotypes attenuated stereotyped emotions toward females and males. In Experiment 2, an immigrant counterstereotype attenuated stereotyped emotions toward this outgroup and reduced dehumanization tendencies. Experiment 3 replicated these results using an alternative measure of humanization. In both Experiments 2 and 3 sequential meditational analysis revealed that counter-stereotypes produced feelings of surprise which, in turn, elicited a cognitive process of expectancy violation which resulted in attenuated stereotyped emotions and an enhanced use of uniquely human characteristics to describe the outgroup. The findings extend research supporting the usefulness of counter-stereotype exposure for reducing prejudice and highlight its positive impact on intergroup emotions.
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Convergence has been a popular theme in applied economics since the seminal papers of Barro (1991) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992). The very notion of convergence quickly becomes problematic from an academic viewpoint however when we try and formalise a framework to think about these issues. In the light of the abundance of available convergence concepts, it would be useful to have a more universal framework that encompassed existing concepts as special cases. Moreover, much of the convergence literature has treated the issue as a zero-one outcome. We argue that it is more sensible and useful for policy decision makers and academic researchers to consider also ongoing convergence over time. Assessing the progress of ongoing convergence is one interesting and important means of evaluating whether the Eastern European New Member Countries (NMC) of the European Union (EU) are getting closer to being deemed “ready” to join the European Monetary Union (EMU), that is, fulfilling the Maastricht convergence criteria.
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It is important to help researchers find valuable papers from a large literature collection. To this end, many graph-based ranking algorithms have been proposed. However, most of these algorithms suffer from the problem of ranking bias. Ranking bias hurts the usefulness of a ranking algorithm because it returns a ranking list with an undesirable time distribution. This paper is a focused study on how to alleviate ranking bias by leveraging the heterogeneous network structure of the literature collection. We propose a new graph-based ranking algorithm, MutualRank, that integrates mutual reinforcement relationships among networks of papers, researchers, and venues to achieve a more synthetic, accurate, and less-biased ranking than previous methods. MutualRank provides a unified model that involves both intra- and inter-network information for ranking papers, researchers, and venues simultaneously. We use the ACL Anthology Network as the benchmark data set and construct the gold standard from computer linguistics course websites of well-known universities and two well-known textbooks. The experimental results show that MutualRank greatly outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors, including PageRank, HITS, CoRank, Future Rank, and P-Rank, in ranking papers in both improving ranking effectiveness and alleviating ranking bias. Rankings of researchers and venues by MutualRank are also quite reasonable.
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This article presents out-of-sample inflation forecasting results based on relative price variability and skewness. It is demonstrated that forecasts on long horizons of 1.5-2 years are significantly improved if the forecast equation is augmented with skewness. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
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This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regressiontechniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a nave random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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We conduct prediction experiments where subjects estimate, and later reconstruct probabilities of up-coming events. Subjects also value state-contingent claims on these events. We find that hindsight bias is greater for events where subjects earned more money