Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Strategic options development and analysis: the case of the brazilian railways

Judging by their success in Europe, Asia and North America, passenger and cargo railways are appreciated as the key to infrastructural development in Brazil. The issues are complex and steeped in uncertainty, as well as political and economic agendas, and a wide array of intersecting issues such as business and unionized interests, agricultural and industrial geographical spreads, as well as the emergence of alternative power sources. Not only are the issues systemic, but railway development itself always comes as a physical network structure. The situation under consideration, in other words, is systemic from both the soft and hard systems point of view, thus promising a rich context for systems studies. As an initial attempt in understanding the situation at hand, the research reported here applied the problem structuring approach known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) in order to map and analyze issues facing the Brazilian railways. Strategic options for the future development of the railways were identified and analyzed, and ways forward for future research are proposed. In addition, the report serves as an initial knowledge base that can guide future systemic planning studies in the industry.

Comparison and analysis of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports of the top five companies ranked on the 2013 CSR RepTrak

In the 1970s, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) was discussed by Nobel laureate Milton Friedman in his article “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits.” (Friedman, 1970). His view on CSR was contemptuous as he referred to it as “hypocritical window-dressing” a reflection of the view of Corporate America on CSR back then. For a long time short-term maximization of shareholder value was the only maxim for top management across industries and companies. Over the last decade, CSR has become a more important and relevant factor of a company’s reputation, shifting the discussion from whether CSR is necessary to how best CSR commitments should be done (Smith, 2003). Inevitably, companies do have an environmental, social and economic impact, thereby imposing social costs on current and future generations. In 2013, 50 of the world biggest companies have been responsible for 73 percent of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emission (Global 500 Climate Change Report 2013). Post et al. (2002) refer to these social costs as a company’s need to retain its “license to operate”. In the late 1990s, CSR reporting was nearly unknown, which drastically changed during the last decade. Allen White, co-founder of the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), said that CSR reporting”… has evolved from the extraordinary to the exceptional to the expected” (Confino, 2013). In confirmation of this, virtually all of the world’s largest 250 companies report on CSR (93%) and reporting by now appears to be business standard (KPMG, 2013). CSR reports are a medium for transparency which may lead to an improved company reputation (Noked, 2013; Thorne et al, 2008; Wilburn and Wilburn, 2013). In addition, it may be used as part of an ongoing shareholder relations campaign, which may prevent shareholders from submitting Environmental and Social (E&S)1 proposals (Noked, 2013), based on an Ernst & Young report 1 The top five E&S proposal topic areas in 2013 were: 1. Political spending/ lobbying; 2. Environmental sustainability; 3. Corporate diversity/ EEO; 4.Labor/ human rights and 5. Animal testing/ animal welfare. Three groups of environmental sustainability proposal topics of sub-category number two (environmental sustainability) 6 2013, representing the largest category of shareholder proposals submitted. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) even goes as far as to claim that CSR reports are “…becoming critical to a company’s credibility, transparency and endurance.” (PwC, 2013).

Isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains from dental office environments and units in Barretos, state of São Paulo, Brazil, and analysis of their susceptibility to antimicrobial drugs

Uma ampla variedade de patógenos oportunistas tem sido detectadas nos tubos de alimentação de água dos equipos odontológicos, particularmente no biofilme formado na superfície do tubo. Entre os patógenos oportunistas encontrados nos tubos de água, Pseudomonas aeruginosa é reconhecida como uma das principais causadoras de infecções nosocomiais. Foram coletadas 160 amostras de água e 200 amostras de fomites em quarenta clinicas odontológicas na cidade de Barretos, São Paulo, Brasil, durante o período de Janeiro a Julho de 2005. Setenta e seis cepas de P. aeruginosa, isoladas a partir dos fomites (5 cepas) e das amostras de água (71 cepas), foram analisadas quanto à susceptibilidade à seis drogas antimicrobianas freqüentemente utilizadas para o tratamento de infecções provocadas por P. aeruginosa. As principais suscetibilidades observadas foram para a ciprofloxacina, seguida pelo meropenem. A necessidade de um mecanismo efetivo para reduzir a contaminação bacteriana dentro dos tubos de alimentação de água dos equipos odontológicos foi enfatizada, e o risco da exposição ocupacional e infecção cruzada na prática odontológica, em especial quando causada por patógenos oportunistas como a P. aeruginosa foi realçado.

Sistema inteligente para detecção de manchas de óleo na superfície marinha através de imagens de SAR

Oil spill on the sea, accidental or not, generates enormous negative consequences for the affected area. The damages are ambient and economic, mainly with the proximity of these spots of preservation areas and/or coastal zones. The development of automatic techniques for identification of oil spots on the sea surface, captured through Radar images, assist in a complete monitoring of the oceans and seas. However spots of different origins can be visualized in this type of imaging, which is a very difficult task. The system proposed in this work, based on techniques of digital image processing and artificial neural network, has the objective to identify the analyzed spot and to discern between oil and other generating phenomena of spot. Tests in functional blocks that compose the proposed system allow the implementation of different algorithms, as well as its detailed and prompt analysis. The algorithms of digital image processing (speckle filtering and gradient), as well as classifier algorithms (Multilayer Perceptron, Radial Basis Function, Support Vector Machine and Committe Machine) are presented and commented.The final performance of the system, with different kind of classifiers, is presented by ROC curve. The true positive rates are considered agreed with the literature about oil slick detection through SAR images presents

Number Processing and Calculation in Brazilian Children Aged 7-12 Years

Numerical cognition is based on two components - number processing and calculation. Its development is influenced by biological, cognitive, educational, and cultural factors. The objectives of the present study were to: i) assess number processing and calculation in Brazilian children aged 7-12 years from public schools using the Zareki-R (Battery of neuropsychological tests for number processing and calculation in children, Revised; von Aster & Dellatolas, 2006) in order to obtain normative data for Portuguese speakers; ii) identify how environment, age, and gender influences the development of these mathematical skills; iii) investigate the construct validity of the Zareki-R by the contrast with the Arithmetic subtest of WISC-III. The sample included 172 children, both genders, divided in two groups: urban (N= 119) and rural (N= 53) assessed by the Zareki-R. Rural children presented lower scores in one aspect of number processing; children aged 7-8 years demonstrated an inferior global score than older; boys presented a superior performance in both number processing and calculation. Construct validity of Zareki-R was demonstrated by high to moderate correlations with Arithmetic subtest of WISC-III. The Zareki-R therefore is a suitable instrument to assess the development of mathematical skills, which is influenced by factors such as environment, age, and gender.

Comparison of different analysis techniques for the determination of muscle onset in individuals with patellofemoral pain syndrome

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Strain differentiation of Trichophyton rubrum by randomly amplified polymorphic DNA and analysis of rDNA nontranscribed spacer

Trichophyton rubrum is the most common pathogen causing dermatophytosis. Molecular strain-typing methods have recently been developed to tackle epidemiological questions and the problem of relapse following treatment. A total of 67 strains of T rubrum were screened for genetic variation by randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis, with two primers, 5'-d[GGTGCGGGAA]-3' and 5'-d[CCCGTCAGCA]-3', as well as by subrepeat element analysis of the nontranscribed spacer of rDNA, using the repetitive subelements TRS-1 and TRS-2. A total of 12 individual patterns were recognized with the first primer and 11 with the second. Phylogenetic analysis of the RAPID products showed a high degree of similarity (> 90 %) among the epidemiologically related clinical isolates, while the other strains possessed 60% similarity. Specific amplification of TRS-1 produced three strain-characteristic banding patterns (PCR types); simple patterns representing one copy of TRS-1 and two copies of TRS-2 accounted for around 85 % of all isolates. It is concluded that molecular analysis has important implications for epidemiological studies, and RAPID analysis is especially suitable for molecular typing in T. rubrum.

Rapid determination of desorption efficiency, and analysis of solvent mixtures for occupational exposure studies

An analytical procedure has been developed for simultaneous determination of solvent mixture vapors to enable evaluation of occupational exposure. To determine the desorption efficiency the volatile components of the solvent mixtures were generated from a glass tube filled with glass wool. This device is easy to prepare and use. These vapors were then collected in activated charcoal tubes and analyzed by capillary gas chromatography. The method was tested with a mixture of 22 solvents, including aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, esters, and ketones, oil at low concentrations. All the components were defected. When a 99: 1 mixture of carbon disulfide-dimethylformamide was used for desorption the efficiency was > 75% for most of the solvents.

Design and Analysis of Optical Interconnection Networks for a Dataflow Parallel Computer

This work shows the design, simulation, and analysis of two optical interconnection networks for a Dataflow parallel computer architecture. To verify the optical interconnection network performance on the Dataflow architecture, we have analyzed the load balancing among the processors during the parallel programs executions. The load balancing is a very important parameter because it is directly associated to the dataflow parallelism degree. This article proves that optical interconnection networks designed with simple optical devices can provide efficiently the dataflow requirements of a high performance communication system.

Design and analysis of an efficient neural network model for solving nonlinear optimization problems

This paper presents an efficient approach based on a recurrent neural network for solving constrained nonlinear optimization. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed, and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the convergence of the network to the equilibrium points that represent an optimal feasible solution. The main advantage of the developed network is that it handles optimization and constraint terms in different stages with no interference from each other. Moreover, the proposed approach does not require specification for penalty and weighting parameters for its initialization. A study of the modified Hopfield model is also developed to analyse its stability and convergence. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed neural network.

Processing and hygrothermal effects on viscoelastic behavior of glass fiber/epoxy composites

Fiber reinforced epoxy composites are used in a wide variety of applications in the aerospace field. These materials have high specific moduli, high specific strength and their properties can be tailored to application requirements. In order to screening optimum materials behavior, the effects of external environments on the mechanical properties during usage must be clearly understood. The environmental action, such as high moisture concentration, high temperatures, corrosive fluids or ultraviolet radiation (UV), can affect the performance of advanced composites during service. These factors can limit the applications of composites by deteriorating the mechanical properties over a period of time. Properties determination is attributed to the chemical and/or physical damages caused in the polymer matrix, loss of adhesion of fiber/resin interface, and/or reduction of fiber strength and stiffness. The dynamic elastic properties are important characteristics of glass fiber reinforced composites (GRFC). They control the damping behavior of composite structures and are also an ideal tool for monitoring the development of GFRC's mechanical properties during their processing or service. One of the most used tests is the vibration damping. In this work, the measurement consisted of recording the vibration decay of a rectangular plate excited by a controlled mechanism to identify the elastic and damping properties of the material under test. The frequency amplitude were measured by accelerometers and calculated by using a digital method. The present studies have been performed to explore relations between the dynamic mechanical properties, damping test and the influence of high moisture concentration of glass fiber reinforced composites (plain weave). The results show that the E' decreased with the increase in the exposed time for glass fiber/epoxy composites specimens exposed at 80 degrees C and 90% RH. The E' values found were: 26.7, 26.7, 25.4, 24.7 and 24.7 GPa for 0, 15, 30, 45 and 60 days of exposure, respectively. (c) 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

Application and analysis of the affinities diagram on the examination of usability problems among older adults

Older adults have been facing usability problems every day, and with the increasing of life expectation those issues will be more and more frequent. The study of this group capacities and limitations could help designers to project systems more usable to everyone

Mechanical Strength and Analysis of Fracture of Titanium Joining Submitted to Laser and Tig Welding

This study compared the tensile strength and fracture mechanism of tungsten inert gas (TIG) welds in cylindrical rods of commercially pure titanium (cp Ti) with those of laser welds and intact samples. Thirty dumbbell-shaped samples were developed by using brass rods as patterns. The samples were invested in casings, subjected to thermal cycles, and positioned in a plasma arc welding machine under argon atmosphere and vacuum, and titanium was injected under vacuum/pressure. The samples were X-rayed to detect possible welding flaws and randomly assigned to three groups to test the tensile strength and the fracture mechanism: intact, laser welding, and TIG welding. The tensile test results were investigated using ANOVA, which indicated that the samples were statistically similar. The fracture analysis showed that the cpTi samples subjected to laser welding exhibited brittle fracture and those subjected to TIG welding exhibited mixed brittle/ductile fracture with a predominance of ductile fracture with the presence of microcavities and cleavage areas. Intact samples presented the characteristic straightening in the fracture areas, indicating the ductility of the material.