Economics of the new member states: A post-crisis perspective

This essay addresses four major issues confronting the Central and Eastern European new members of the European Union in the decade to come. First: what to think of the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. Second, what have they learned from the tremors, having shaken the previous star performers of the EU? Third we ask if we can expect a return to ‘normalcy' as forecast by most models of financial rating agencies and international financial institutions? Fourth the question is raised what did the new members benefit from their EU membership? Some conclusions on the future of EU reforms and policies close the overview.

A villamos energia áralakulásának egy új modellje (A new model for price movement in electric power)

A tanulmány az aukciós villamosenergia-tőzsdéken kialakuló óránkénti árak statisztikai jellemzőivel foglalkozik. Célja, hogy egyes legújabb kutatási eredmények alapján új megvilágításban mutassa be a villamos energia óránkénti árára jellemző főbb megállapításokat, amelyek a későbbiekben az ár modellezésének alapjául szolgálhatnak. A jelenségeket az EEX és Nord Pool áramtőzsdén kereskedett termékek árainak adatain szemlélteti. Látni fogjuk, hogy át kell értékelnünk több, a villamosenergia-árak statisztikai viselkedéséről alkotott meggondolást. / === / The article concerns the statistical features of the hourly prices on auction-based markets for electric power. The purpose is to use the latest research findings to present the main statements about the hourly price for electric power in a new light, so that they can serve later as a basis for price modelling. The phenomena are viewed through the price data of products traded on the EEX and Nord Pool power exchanges. It emerges that several ideas about the statistical behaviour of electric power prices have to be reviewed.

Tanulságok a gazdasági és monetáris unió számára a 2008-as világgazdasági válság kapcsán (Lessons for the Economic and Monetary Union from the 2008 global economic crisis)

Írásunkban a 2008-ban kitört világgazdasági válságnak a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unióra gyakorolt hatásait elemezzük. Tanulmányunkban rávilágítunk a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió két olyan problémájára, amelyek a válság után váltak igazán nyilvánvalóvá. Egyrészt a görög államcsődveszély, illetve egyes, korábban jól teljesítő országok botladozása jelzi, hogy a Monetáris Unió intézményrendszere legalábbis hiányos. A másik kérdés összefügg az előzővel, és azon országok szemszögéből érdekes, amelyek csatlakozni kívánnak a GMU-hoz: felerősödtek azok a vélemények, amelyek a csatlakozás elhalasztása mellett foglalnak állást. Tanulmányunk második részében ezt a kérdést járjuk körbe. / === / In our paper we are analyze the effects of the economic crisis of 2008 on the Economic and Monetary Union. We are focusing on two core problems of the EMU which came to surface only after the outbreak of the crisis. First, we address the fiscal problems of Greece and other member states which performed well before the crisis. These problems show that there are major institutional shortcomings in the Monetary Union. The second question is connected to the first one and concerns the new member states of the European Union and their strategies to join the Euro zone. After the crisis more and more voices in the new member states suggest postponing EMU membership.

Reading before buying - exploring consumer attitudes toward informative function of packaging

Oftentimes, packaging is the first and only marketing tool consumers encounter before a purchase, therefore it is considered to be the most important communication and informative tool (Behaegel, 1991; Peters, 1994). The aim of the research is to better understand food label usage of consumers. To make the identification of behaviour patterns possible and to understand the way consumers use labels on packaging netnography has been chosen as the research method. We identified market factors in our research which result in label use. Based on our results, two large consumer segments were identified: conscious and non-conscious consumer behaviours. Reading information on packaging can be classified in two ways, according to method of use (superficial, conditional, incidental) and place (home, or point of sale).

Virtuális árhatás a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén = Virtual price effects on the Budapest stock exchange

Az árhatásfüggvények azt mutatják meg, hogy egy adott értékű megbízás mekkora relatív árváltozást okoz. Az árhatásfüggvény ismerete a piaci szereplők számára fontos szerepet játszik a jövőben benyújtandó ajánlataikhoz kapcsolódó árhatás előrejelzésében, a kereskedés árváltozásból eredő többletköltségének becslésében, illetve az optimális kereskedési algoritmus kialakításában. Az általunk kidolgozott módszer révén a piaci szereplők a teljes ajánlati könyv ismerete nélkül egyszerűen és gyorsan tudnak virtuális árhatásfüggvényt meghatározni, ugyanis bemutatjuk az árhatásfüggvény és a likviditási mértékek kapcsolatát, valamint azt, hogy miként lehet a Budapesti Likviditási Mérték (BLM) idősorából ár ha tás függ vényt becsülni. A kidolgozott módszertant az OTP-részvény idősorán szemléltetjük, és a részvény BLM-adatsorából a 2007. január 1-je és 2011. június 3-a közötti időszakra virtuális árhatás függvényt becsülünk. Empirikus elemzésünk során az árhatás függ vény időbeli alakulásának és alapvető statisztikai tulajdonságainak vizsgálatát végezzük el, ami révén képet kaphatunk a likviditás hiányában fellépő tranzakciós költségek múltbeli viselkedéséről. Az így kapott információk például a dinamikus portfólióoptimalizálás során lehetnek a kereskedők segítségére. / === / Price-effect equations show what relative price change a commission of a given value will have. Knowledge of price-effect equations plays an important part in enabling market players to predict the price effect of their future commissions and to develop an optimal trading algorithm. The method devised by the authors allows a virtual price-effect equation to be defined simply and rapidly without knowledge of the whole offer book, by presenting the relation between the price-effect equation and degree of liquidity, and how to estimate the price-effect equation from the time line of the Budapest Liquidity Measure (BLM). The methodology is shown using the time line for OTP shares and the virtual price-effect equation estimated for the 1 January 2007 to 3 June 2011 period from the shares BML data set. During the empirical analysis the authors conducted an examination of the tendency of the price-effect equation over time and for its basic statistical attributes, to yield a picture of the past behaviour of the transaction costs arising in the absence of liquidity. The information obtained may, for instance, help traders in dynamic portfolio optimization.

Az ajánlati könyv statisztikai tulajdonságai (Statistical properties of the limit order book)

A pénzügyi modellek jelentős része feltételezi a piacok hatékony működését. Ennek következtében számos tudományos kutatás központi témája volt a piacok hatékonyságának tesztelése és ennek igazolása, esetleg cáfolata. Ezen próbálkozások azonban mind a mai napig eredménytelenül zárultak. A tesztelések nyomán a kutatások a termékek áralakulásából indultak ki, és a hozamokat ezen keresztül elemezték. Az elmúlt években azonban a fókusz átterelődött az árak alakulásáról egy elemibb tényezőre, az ajánlati könyvre. Ugyanis végső soron az ajánlatvezérelt piacokon az árakat az ajánlati könyvbe benyújtott megbízások alakulása fogja meghatározni. Mivel a tőzsdék jelentős része ajánlatvezérelt piacként működik, ezért érdemesnek tartották a kutatók, hogy inkább az ajánlati könyv alakulásának statisztikai jellemzőit elemezzék, hátha az eredményre vezet, és sikerül közelebb jutni a hatékony piacok elméletének igazolásához vagy cáfolatához. Jelen tanulmány célja az, hogy az eddig megjelent tudományos kutatások alapján ismertesse az ajánlati könyv alapvető statisztikai tulajdonságait, és rávilágítson arra: mindez valójában hozzájárult-e a hatékony piacok elméletének igazolásához? ______ Most of the fi nancial models assume that markets are effi cient. As a result, numerous scientifi c researchers were focused on testing the effi cient market hypothesis, and tried to prove, or deny it. However, all these attempts are still unsuccessful. During these researches, the analyses of the effi cient market hypothesis were based on the price evolution of a certain asset, and through this the returns were examined. In the recent years the research interest has changed, and instead of analyzing the returns, a more primary factor got into focus, namely the limit order book. The reason is that on order driven markets the prices and the order sizes in the limit order book infl uence the price evolution on the market. Since a notable number of stock markets operate as an order driven market, the researchers thought that it worth analyzing the statistical properties of the limit order book, because maybe it will get us closer to the proof of the effi cient market hypothesis. The purpose of this study is to summarize the statistical properties of the limit order book, based on the scientifi c works published so far. The study would like to highlight whether these studies contributed to the proof or disproof of the effi cient market hypothesis.

A láthatatlan kéz – szemelvények egy metafora történetéből (The invisible hand - extracts from the history of a metaphor)

A láthatatlan kéz Adam Smith nyomán a közgazdaságtan legismertebb metaforája lett, de jelentősége és értelmezése máig megosztja a közgazdászokat és eszmetörténészeket. Az interpretációk skálája rendkívül széles: mértékadó közgazdászok szerint ez a közgazdaságtan alapeszméje, míg mások Smith ironikus tréfájának vélik. A tanulmány áttekinti a láthatatlan kéz Smith előtti használatát teológiai, politikai és irodalmi szövegekben és a hozzájuk kapcsolódó interpretációkat. Ezt követően bemutatja, hogyan alkalmazta Smith a nevezetes kifejezést a merkantilista politika ironikus és paradox kritikájaként, és miként került a 19. század végétől e metafora a Smith-olvasatokban központi helyre, majd miként vált kérdésessé ez a felfogás a 2008-as válság nyomán. ____ Adam Smith's phrase the invisible hand has become the best-known metaphor in economics, yet both its interpretation and its relevance are hotly debated by economists and intellectual historians. The range of opinions is wide: several leading economists view it as the founding idea in economics and social studies, some historians see it as an ironic jest by Smith. The study surveys the different uses of the metaphor in theological, political and literary texts before Smith and reconstructs the "invisible hand" passage in The Wealth of Nations as an ironic and paradoxical critique of mercantilist policy. A vast literature has emerged since the late 19th century treating the metaphor in various way, ranging from the description and justification of free markets to the claim that it is a purely fictitious mechanism. The critical approach to it has become stronger since the great recession of 2008.

Fair price and its effect on willingness to purchase

The purpose of the present research is to demonstrate the influence of a fair price (independent of the subjective evaluation of the price magnitude) on buyers' willingness to purchase. The perceived fairness of a price is conceived to have three components: perceived equity, perceived need, and inferred compliance of the seller to the process rules of pricing. These components reflect the Theories of Distributive Justice (as adjusted for conditions of need) and Procedural Justice.^ The effect of the three components of a fair price on willingness to purchase is depicted in a theoretically causal chain model. Based on the Theories of Dissonance and Attribution, conditions of inequity and need activate concerns for Procedural Justice. Under conditions of inequity and need, buyers tend to infer that the seller has not complied with the generally accepted pricing practices, thus violating the social norms of Procedural justice. Inferred violations of Procedural Justice influence the buyer's attitude toward the seller. As predicted by the Theory of Reasoned Action, attitude is then positively related to willingness to purchase.^ The model was tested with a survey-based experiment conducted with 408 respondents. Two levels of both equity and need were manipulated with scenarios, a common research method in studies of Distributive and Procedural Justice. The data were analyzed with a structural equation model using LISREL. Although the effect of the "need" manipulation was insignificant, the results indicated a good fit of the model (Chi-square = 281, Degrees of Freedom = 104, Goodness of Fit Index =.924). The conclusion is that the fairness of a price does have a significant effect on willingness to purchase, independent of the subjective evaluation of the objective price. ^

Asymmetric syntheses of analogs of kainic acid

Kainic acid has been used for nearly 50 years as a tool in neuroscience due to its pronounced neuroexcitatory properties. However, the significant price increase of kainic acid resulting from the disruption in the supply from its natural source, the alga Digenea Simplex, as well as inefficient synthesis of kainic acid, call for the exploration of functional mimics of kainic acid that can be synthesized in a simpler way. Aza kainoids analog could be one of them. The unsubstituted aza analog of kainoids has demonstrates its ability as an ionotropic glutamate receptor agonist and showed affinity in the chloride dependent glutamate (GluCl) binding site. This opened a question of the importance of the presence of one nitrogen or both nitrogens in the aza kainoid analogs for binding to glutamate receptors. Therefore, two different pyrrolidine analogs of kainic acid, trans -4-(carboxymethyl)pyrrolidine-3-carboxylic acid and trans -2-carboxy-3-pyrrolidineacetic acid, were synthesized through multi-step sequences. The lack of the affinity of both pyrrolidine analogs in GluCl binding site indicated that both nitrogens in aza kainoid analogs are involved in hydrogen bonding with receptors, significantly enhancing their affinity in GluCl binding site. Another potential functional mimic of kainic acid is isoxazolidine analogs of kainoids whose skeleton can be constituted directly via a 1, 3 dipolar cycloaddition as the key step. The difficulty in synthesizing N-unsubstituted isoxazolidines when applying such common protecting groups as alkyl, phenyl and benzyl groups, and the requirement of a desired enantioselectivity due to the three chiral ceneters in kainic acid, pose great challenges. Hence, several different protected nitrones were studied to establish that diphenylmethine nitrone may be a good candidate as the dipole in that the generated isoxazolidines can be deprotected in mild conditions with high yields. Our investigations also indicated that the exo/endo selectivity of the 1, 3 dipolar cycloaddition can be controlled by Lewis acids, and that the application of a directing group in dipolarophiles can accomplish a satisfied enantioselectivity. Those results demonstrated the synthesis of isoxazoldines analogs of kainic acid is very promising.

Ethics, Value Systems And The Professionalization Of Hoteliers

In the discussion - Ethics, Value Systems And The Professionalization Of Hoteliers by K. Michael Haywood, Associate Professor, School of Hotel and Food Administration, University of Guelph, Haywood initially presents: “Hoteliers and executives in other service industries should realize that the foundation of success in their businesses is based upon personal and corporate value systems and steady commitment to excellence. The author illustrates how ethical issues and manager morality are linked to, and shaped by the values of executives and the organization, and how improved professionalism can only be achieved through the adoption of a value system that rewards contributions rather than the mere attainment of results.” The bottom line of this discussion is, how does the hotel industry reconcile its behavior with that of public perception? “The time has come for hoteliers to examine their own standards of ethics, value systems, and professionalism,” Haywood says. And it is ethics that are at the center of this issue; Haywood holds that component in an estimable position. “Hoteliers must become value-driven,” advises Haywood. “They must be committed to excellence both in actualizing their best potentialities and in excelling in all they do. In other words, the professionalization of the hotelier can be achieved through a high degree of self-control, internalized values, codes of ethics, and related socialization processes,” he expands. “Serious ethical issues exist for hoteliers as well as for many business people and professionals in positions of responsibility,” Haywood alludes in defining some inter-industry problems. “The acceptance of kickbacks and gifts from suppliers, the hiding of income from taxation authorities, the lack of interest in installing and maintaining proper safety and security systems, and the raiding of competitors' staffs are common practices,” he offers, with the reasoning that if these problems can occur within ranks, then there is going to be a negative backlash in the public/client arena as well. Haywood divides the key principles of his thesis statement - ethics, value systems, and professionalism – into specific elements, and then continues to broaden the scope of each element. Promotion, product/service, and pricing are additional key components in Haywood’s discussion, and he addresses each with verve and vitality. Haywood references the four character types - craftsmen, jungle fighters, company men, and gamesmen – via a citation to Michael Maccoby, in the portion of the discussion dedicated to morality and success. Haywood closes with a series of questions derived from Lawrence Miller's American Spirit, Visions of a New Corporate Culture, each question designed to focus, shape, and organize management's attention to the values that Miller sets forth in his piece.

The Use of Thermal Capacity in Measuring the Effectiveness of Meals on Wheels Transport Containers

The Meals on Wheels (MOW) program is designed to help combat hunger in persons needing assistance. MOW has a duty not only to provide food but also to ensure that it reaches eligible clients safely. Given the population that MOW serves, transporting food safely takes on increased importance. This experiment focused on the major food safety issue of maintaining temperature integrity through the use of transport containers. For containers that did not contain electric heating elements, several factors influenced how fast the food temperature fell. Those factors included the U-value and size of the container as well as how many meals were in the container. As predicted, the smaller the U-value, the longer it took the temperature to fall. Larger containers did better at maintaining food temperatures, provided they were fully loaded. In general, fully loaded small and medium containers were better at maintaining food temperatures than larger containers loaded with the same number of meals.

An examination of the within -product category versus across -product category effects of partially comparative pricing

Partially comparative pricing involves a featured store providing price comparisons in reference to a competitor for some products (comparatively priced products) while omitting such comparisons and providing only its price for other products (non-comparatively priced products). Barone, Manning and Miniard (2004) found that while partially comparative pricing enhanced consumers' price perceptions of comparatively priced products at the featured retailer, it had the opposite effect for non-comparatively priced products (i.e., an inferiority effect). To the contrary, it is argued that a price comparison for one brand in a product category may enhance consumers' price perceptions of the remaining, non-comparatively priced brands within the same product category (i.e., a superiority effect). This research seeks to (a) examine the robustness of partially comparative pricing's effect in an across-product category context compared to a within-product category context and (b) extend the understanding of partially comparative pricing's within-product category effect on non-comparatively priced brands by examining potential moderators of this effect: brand diversity, brand typicality, and the relative expensiveness of the brand receiving the price comparison. The findings of four studies provide evidence to support the presence of a superiority effect in a within-product category context and suggests that the adverse effect of partially comparative pricing in an across-product category context may not be as robust as previously thought. Although the superiority effect was unaffected by brand diversity (i.e., whether the brands emanated from different manufacturers or from a single manufacturer), it was found to be moderated by the typicality of the brand receiving the price comparison as well as the comparison brand's relative expensiveness. Research participants formed more favorable relative price beliefs about the non-comparatively priced brand when the comparatively priced brand was perceived as a more typical member of the product category. Similarly, participants formed more favorable beliefs about the non-comparatively priced brand when the comparison price was assigned to the most expensive brand in the product category rather than the least expensive brand.

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.

Patch selection behaviour in the presence of environmental constraints

Habitat selection behaviour is the primary way in which organisms are able to regulate encounters with their biotic and abiotic environment. An individual chooses an area that best meets their current needs, particularly regarding safety and the presence of high-quality food. Several physical aspects of the environment can make it difficult for individuals to assess the relative habitat quality of the areas available, thus leading to suboptimal habitat selection. In this thesis, I investigated the way in which two aquatic habitat constraints - obstacles to movement between patches and turbidity - affected the ability of fish to make optimal patch choices, using threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus as a model species. Laboratory experiments showed that when movement between patches was hindered by increasingly challenging obstacles, groups of stickleback did not move as freely between the patches, and thus had greater deviations from the predictions of the Ideal Free Distribution (IFD). I also demonstrated that, unlike other species, stickleback do not use turbid environments to avoid predator detection. A trend was seen towards avoidance of a turbid food patch regardless of risk level, although this was not statistically significant. As expected, the stickleback avoided feeding in the presence of a predator regardless of water clarity. Overall, I found that both turbidity and movement constraints can have significant impacts on patch use and distribution in the threespine stickleback. Both turbidity and ease of transit will impact the distribution of ecologically important species like the threespine stickleback, and therefore should be taken into account when studying habitat selection in the wild.