The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-generalized gamma regression model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we proposed a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest following the Conway-Maxwell distribution and the time for the event to follow the generalized gamma distribution. This distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, bathtub and unimodal-shaped including some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Some appropriate matrices are derived in order to evaluate local influence on the estimates of the parameters by considering different perturbations, and some global influence measurements are also investigated. Finally, data set from the medical area is analysed.

Short-Term Multinodal Load Forecasting Using a Modified General Regression Neural Network

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cytokines and acute-phase serum proteins as markers of inflammatory regression during pulmonary tuberculosis treatment

Tuberculosis is still increasing and was declared a worldwide sanitary emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1995. Its control is difficult due to long treatment duration and lack of markers of treatment success or failure. Cytokines such as IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha, a central factor in immune response against Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are responsible for the interaction between T lymphocytes and the infected macrophage and are also produced during this interaction. As proinflammatory cytokines have a close relationship with mycobacteria clearance, in fact even preceding it, they could be used as markers for inflammatory activity and response to treatment. Proinflammatory cytokines act in the liver and stimulate a strong local and systemic acute-phase response as a result of homeostatic and physiological responses also induced by them. Acute-phase proteins produced by cytokine activity are useful diagnostic markers that could also be used to monitor treatment response as they can be serially quantified. The objective of this study was to evaluate IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha, IL-10 and TGF-beta production in supernatant of peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) and monocyte (MO) cultures, as well as serum acute-phase response through total protein, albumin, globulin, C-reactive protein (CRP), alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) as regression markers of inflammatory response during pulmonary tuberculosis treatment. Twenty blood donors (G1) from the Blood Bank at Botucatu School of Medicine's University Hospital (BSM-UH) were evaluated once and 28 pulmonary tuberculosis patients (G2): 13 from BSM-UH and 15 from the Bauru State Health Secretariat. Patients were evaluated at three moments of treatment: before (M1), at three months (M2), and at the end (M3). Cytokines were determined in 20ml of peripheral blood (ELISA), with or without activation: lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for MO culture and phytohemagglutinin (PHA) for PBMC culture. Acute-phase protein behavior in G2 throughout treatment was: Globulins: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.001); CRP: M1> M2> M3 (.< 0.001); AGP for men: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.001); ESR for men: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.0016) and for women: M1> M2 (.< 0.025). Comparison between cytokine levels found in supernatant of MO and PBMC cultures, with and without stimulus, in G1 and G2 during treatment showed: TNF-alpha (with/ without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); (without LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001), (with LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.028); IFN-. (with and without PHA) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); IL-10 (with and without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1; at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); TGF-beta (with and without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001), (without LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001). In G2, all cytokines in supernatant of MO and PBMC cultures, with and without stimulus, showed: M1> M2> M3 (rho < 0.01). Levels of globulins, CRP, AGP, and ESR in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis before treatment (M1) were significantly higher than reference values, suggesting their use as diagnostic markers and indicators of treatment. The CRP decreasing values along treatment could be taken as a marker of the regression of inflammatory process and of response to treatment in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.Regarding cytokines, there was significant increase in TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, IL-10, and TGF-alpha levels before and at three months treatment, with and without stimulus; in TNF-a and IL-10 lvels, with and without stimulus, as well as in TGF-alpha levels without stimulus at six months. Patients had higher levels of all studied cytokines than controls before treatment, and these values decreased along treatment. In this study, pulmonary tuberculosis patients showed a Th0 cytokine profile before treatment, with the production of both Th1 (IFN-gamma) and Th2 (IL-10) cytokines, in addition to TNF-alpha inflammatory and TGF-alpha regulatory and fibrosis-inducer cytokines. At the end of treatment, all had evolved to Th2 profile, probably in an attempt to reduce the harmful effects of the proinflammatory activity of the Th1 cytokine profile and of the still above-normal levels of TNF-alpha. The high levels of TGF-alpha, also found in these patients, are related to its important role in the extracellular matrix deposition and fibrosis induction that characterize tuberculosis healing process. IFN-gamma was the only cytokine reaching normal levels at the end of treatment, which suggests its use as a marker of response to treatment.

Qualidade da carne de cordeiros criados em creep feeding com silagem de grãos úmidos de milho

Objetivou-se, com este trabalho, estudar níveis de substituição (0; 50 e 100%) do milho grão seco moído pela silagem de grãos úmidos de milho (SGUM) na ração de cordeiros alimentados em creep feeding. Vinte e quatro cordeiros Suffolk foram avaliados quanto às características quantitativas e qualitativas do músculo longissimus dorsi. Os animais foram abatidos ao atingirem 28 kg PV e suas carcaças resfriadas foram seccionadas em sete regiões anatômicas. Sobre a superfície do longissimus dorsi, no corte denominado lombo, foram tomadas as medidas: largura e profundidade máximas; mínima e máxima espessuras de gordura de cobertura e área de olho de lombo. Nos lombos, determinaram-se as proporções dos tecidos muscular, adiposo e ósseo, a composição química e a força de cisalhamento. Os resultados revelaram que não houve efeito dos tratamentos para a força de cisalhamento e nem para as medidas tomadas no longissimus dorsi, exceto para a área de olho de lombo, segundo regressão quadrática, com maiores valores para os tratamentos com SGUM. As análises de composição química do longissimus dorsi revelaram que os tratamentos influenciaram o teor de gordura no músculo, que aumentou linearmente de acordo com a inclusão de SGUM na ração. Não foi verificado efeito dos tratamentos sobre a composição tecidual dos lombos. Concluiu-se que é possível recomendar a substituição do milho grão pela silagem de grãos úmidos de milho para a dieta de cordeiros terminados em creep feeding, conservando a boa qualidade da carne.

Associations between LEP, DGAT1 and FABP4 gene polymorphisms and carcass and meat traits in Nelore and crossbred beef cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeitos da transformação de uma variável com distribuição normal em sua inversa sobre os parâmetros de sua distribuição usando técnicas de Monte Carlo

Foram realizados quatro estudos de simulação para verificar a distribuição de inversas de variáveis com distribuição normal, em função de diferentes variâncias, médias, pontos de truncamentos e tamanhos amostrais. As variáveis simuladas foram GMD, com distribuição normal, representando o ganho médio diário e DIAS, obtido a partir da inversa de GMD, representando dias para se obter determinado peso. em todos os estudos, foi utilizado o sistema SAS® (1990) para simulação dos dados e para posterior análise dos resultados. As médias amostrais de DIAS foram dependentes dos desvios-padrão utilizados na simulação. As análises de regressão mostraram redução da média e do desvio-padrão de DIAS em função do aumento na média de GMD. A inclusão de um ponto de truncamento entre 10 e 25% do valor da média de GMD reduziu a média de GMD e aumentou a de DIAS, quando o coeficiente de variação de GMD foi superior a 25%. O efeito do tamanho dos grupos nas médias de GMD e DIAS não foi significativo, mas o desvio-padrão e CV amostrais médios de GMD aumentaram com o tamanho do grupo. em virtude da dependência entre a média e o desvio-padrão e da variação observada nos desvios-padrão de DIAS em função do tamanho do grupo, a utilização de DIAS como critério de seleção pode diminuir a acurácia da variação. Portanto, para a substituição de GMD por DIAS, é necessária a utilização de um método de análise robusto o suficiente para a eliminação da heterogeneidade de variância.

Estudo de simulação de modelos lineares mistos com distribuição normal contaminada no melhoramento genético animal

Objetivou-se com esse trabalho comparar estimativas de componentes de variâncias obtidas por meio de modelos lineares mistos Gaussianos e Robustos, via Amostrador de Gibbs, em dados simulados. Foram simulados 50 arquivos de dados com 1.000 animais cada um, distribuídos em cinco gerações, em dois níveis de efeito fixo e três valores fenotípicos distintos para uma característica hipotética, com diferentes níveis de contaminação. Exceto para os dados sem contaminação, quando os modelos foram iguais, o modelo Robusto apresentou melhores estimativas da variância residual. As estimativas de herdabilidade foram semelhantes em todos os modelos, mas as análises de regressão mostraram que os valores genéticos preditos com uso do modelo Robusto foram mais próximos dos valores genéticos verdadeiros. Esses resultados sugerem que o modelo linear normal contaminado oferece uma alternativa flexível para estimação robusta em melhoramento genético animal.

Influence of sire and sire breed (Gyr versus Holstein) on establishment of pregnancy and embryonic loss in lactating Holstein cows during summer heat stress

Heat stress has negative effects on pregnancy rates of lactating dairy cattle. There are genetic differences in tolerance to heat stress; Bos taurus indicus (B. t. indicus) cattle and embryos are more thermotolerant than Bos taurus taurus (B. t. taurus). In the present study, the effects of sire and sire breed on conception and embryonic/fetal loss rates of lactating Holstein cows during the Brazilian summer were determined. In Experiment 1, cows (n = 302) were AI after estrus detection or at a fixed-time with semen from one Gyr (B. t. indicus) or one Holstein sire (B. t. taurus). Pregnancy was diagnosed 80 days after AI. In Experiment 2, cows (n = 811) were AI with semen from three Gyr and two Holstein sires. Pregnancy was diagnosed at 30-40 and at 60-80 days after AI. Cows diagnosed pregnant at the first examination but non-pregnant at the second were considered as having lost their embryo or fetus. Data were analyzed by logistic regression. The model considered the effect of sire within breed, sire breed, days postpartum, period of lactation, and AI type (AI after estrus versus fixed-time). There was no effect of the AI type, days postpartum or milk production on conception or embryonic loss rates. The use of Gyr bulls increased pregnancy rate when compared to Holstein bulls [9.1% (60/657) versus 5.0% (23/456), respectively, P = 0.008; data from Experiments 1 and 2 combined]. Additionally, in Experiment 2, cows inseminated using semen from sire #4 (Gyr) had lower embryonic loss (10%) when compared with other B. t. indicus (35.3% and 40%) or B. t. taurus sires (18.2% and 38.5%, P = 0.03). In conclusion, the use of B. t. indicus sires may result in higher conception rates in lactating Holstein cows during summer heat stress. Moreover, sire can affect embryonic loss and selection of bulls according to this criterion may result in higher parturition rates in lactating Holstein cows. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of muscle tissue growth in Young Mediterranean Buffaloes slaughtered at different weights

This study evaluated muscle, adipose and bone tissue growth in young Mediterranean buffaloes slaughtered with different weights. Twenty eight non-castrated males, approximately 14 months old and 330 kilos, were distributed in four experimental and one control groups. Received the same diet during a non-fixed period and when reached the pre-established weights (450 kg, 480 kg, 510 kg, 540 kg) were fasted for 16 hours and slaughtered. NRC 1996, level 2, ruminal simulation program for non-castrated animals with a daily weight gain of 1.40 kg determined percentage composition of experimental diet (dry matter): coast cross hay (20.6%), corn silage (7.8%), cotton seed (8.2%), humid corn silage (46%) and commercial mineral concentrate (17.4%), representing 13% of crude protein and 2,68% of metabolizable energy (Mcal/kg). Feed was offered ad libitum twice daily. Slaughter of control group occurred after 30 days of an adaptation period. The other ones were weighted each 28 days until reached pre-established weight. Carcasses were chilled for 18 hours under -5 degrees C. Ninth, 10 degrees and 11 degrees ribs of the half left carcass were submitted to HH section and according to the statistical regression analysis (SAS, 1996), allometric coefficient value was negative (b<1) demonstrating the early growth of muscle in relation to empty carcass weight.

Strategies to improve fertility in Bos indicus postpubertal heifers and nonlactating cows submitted to fixed-time artificial insemination

Two experiments were designed to evaluate strategies to increase fertility of Bos indicus postpubertal heifers and nonlactating cows submitted to a fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) protocol consisting of an intravaginal device containing 1.9 g of progesterone (CIDR) insertion + estradiol benzoate on Day 0, CIDR withdrawal + estradiol cypionate on Day 9, and TAI on Day 11. In Experiment 1, heifers (n = 1153) received a new or an 18-d previously used CIDR and, on Day 9, prostaglandin F(2 alpha) (PGF(2 alpha)) + 0, 200, or 300 IU equine chorionic gonadotropin (eCG). Heifers treated with a new CIDR had greater (least squares means +/- SEM) serum concentration of progesterone on Day 9 (3.06 +/- 0.09 ng/mL vs. 2.53 +/- 0.09 ng/mL; P < 0.05) and a smaller follicle at TAI (11.61 +/- 0.11 nim vs. 12.05 +/- 0.12 mm; P < 0.05). Heifers with smaller follicles at TAI had lesser serum progesterone, concentrations on Day 18 and reduced rates of ovulation, conception, and pregnancy (P < 0.05). Treatment with eCG improved (P < 0.05) follicle diameter at TAI (11.50 +/- 0.10 mm, 11.90 +/- 0.11 mm, and 12.00 +/- 0.10 mm, for 0, 100, and 200 IU, respectively), serum progesterone concentration on Day 18 (2.77 +/- 0.11 ng/mL, 3.81 +/- 0.11 ng/mL, and 4.87 +/- 0.11 ng/mL), and rates of ovulation (83.8%, 88.5%, and 94.3%) and pregnancy (41.3%, 47.0%, and 46.7%). In Experiment 2, nonlactating Nelore cows (n = 702) received PGF(2 alpha) treatment on Days 7 or 9 and, on Day 9, 0 or 300 IU cCG. Cows receiving PGF(2 alpha) on Day 7 had lesser serum progesterone concentrations on Day 9 (3.05 +/- 0.21 ng/mL vs. 4.58 +/- 0.21 ng/mL; P < 0.05), a larger follicle at TAI (11.54 +/- 0.21 mm vs. 10.84 +/- 0.21 mm; P < 0.05), and improved (P < 0.05) rates of ovulation (85.4% vs. 77.0%), conception (60.9% vs. 47.2%), and pregnancy (52.0% vs. 36.4%). Treatment with eCG improved (P < 0.05) serum progesterone concentration on Day 18 (3.24 +/- 0.14 ng/mL vs. 4.55 +/- 0.14 ng/mL) and the rates of ovulation (72.4% vs. 90.0%) and pregnancy (37.5% vs. 50.8%). In conclusion, giving PGF(2 alpha) earlier in the protocol in nonlactating cows and eCG treatment in postpubertal heifers and nonlactating cows improved fertility in response to a TAI (progesterone + estradiol) protocol. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fixed-time artificial insemination with estradiol and progesterone for Bos indicus cows II: Strategies and factors affecting fertility

In Experiments 1, 2, and 3, we evaluated the effects of temporary weaning (TW), equine chorionic gonadotropin (eCG), and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) treatments on results of it fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) protocol in postpartum Bos indicus cows. In Experiment 1, treatment with 400 IU eCG or with TW for 48 h consistently improved pregnancy rates (PRs) at TAI, but, in Experiment 2, FSH treatment was less effective than eCG or TW. In Experiment 3, the inclusion of eCG treatment in cows subjected to TW did not improve PRs. We concluded that TW or 400 IU eCG should be included in the TAI protocol in postpartum Bos indicus cows to enhance fertility. In Experiment 4, we used records front heifers and cows treated with the proposed protocol during the 2006-2007 (n = 27,195) and 2007-2008 (n = 36,838) breeding seasons from multiple locations in Brazil to evaluate factors potentially affecting PRs. Overall PR at TAI was 49.6% (31,786 of 64,033). Pregnancy rate differed (P < 0.01) among farm within location (results ranging between 26.8% and 68.0%; P < 0.01), cow group within farm, by breed (Bos indicus, 48.3% [26,123 of 54,145]; Bos taurus, 61.7% [3652 of 5922]; and crossbred Bos indicus x Bos taurus, 50.7% [2011 of 3966]), category (nulliparous, 39.6% [2095 of 52901] suckled primiparous, 45.2% [3924 of 8677]; suckled multiparous, 51.8% [24,245 of 46,767]; and nonsuckled multiparous, 46.1% [1522 of 3299]), body condition score at TAI (<= 2.5 43.0% [3409 of 7923]; 3.0, 49.6% [18,958 of 38,229]; and >3.5, 52.7% [9419 of 17,881]). Days postpartum at beginning, of protocol did not affect PR (30 to 60 d, 47.6% [4228 of 8881]; 61 to 90 d, 51.7% 116,325 to 31,5721; and 91 to 150 d, 50.8% [7616 to 14,991]; P > 0.1). Pregnancy rate was also consistently affected (P < 0.01) by sire (results ranging from 7.2% to 77.3%) and artificial insemination technician (results ranging from 15.1% to 81.8%). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fertility-associated antigen on Nelore bull sperm and reproductive outcomes following first-service fixed-time AT of Nelore cows and heifers

The objective was to determine whether the presence of fertility-associated antigen (FAA) on sperm collected from Nelore (Bos indicus) bulls can be used to assess potential fertility of sperm for use at first-service fixed-time AI (TAI). Six Nelore bulls were selected based on FAA status (FAA-negative: N = 3; FAA-positive: N = 3) and the ability to produce neat semen with >= 70% morphologically normal sperm and 60% estimated progressive motility before cryopmservation. In Experiment 1, suckled multiparous Nelore cows (N = 835) were evaluated for body condition score (BCS) and received an intravaginal progesterone device (CIDR) and 2.0 mg of estradiol benzoate (Day 0). on Day 9 the CIDR was removed, 12.5 mg of PGF(2 alpha) and 0.5 mg of estradiol cypionate were administered, and calves were removed for 48 h. All cows received TAI on Day II (48 h after CIDR removal). Pregnancy per TAI (P/TAI) was not different between FAA-positive and FAA-negative bulls (41.5% vs. 39.3%, respectively). There was an effect of AI technician on P/TAI (36.0% vs. 43.9%; P < 0.05) and BCS tended to affect P/TAI (P = 0.09), as cows with BCS >= 2.75 were 1.4 times more likely to become pregnant compared with cows with BCS < 2.75. In Experiment 2, nulliparous Nelore heifers (N = 617) were evaluated for BCS and received a CIDR and estradiol benzoate (2.0 mg) on Day 0. on Day 7, all heifers received PGF(2 alpha) (12.5 mg). on Day 9, CIDR inserts were removed and all heifers received estradiol cypionate (0.6 mg) and 200 IU eCG. All heifers received TAI on Day 11 (48 h after CIDR removal). Pregnancy/TAI was different (P = 0.04) between FAA-positive and FAA-negative bulls (33.7% vs. 40.7%, respectively). Presence of FAA on sperm was unsuccessful in assessing the potential fertility of sperm for use in TAI. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fixed-time artificial insemination with estradiol and progesterone for Bos indicus cows I: Basis for development of protocols

Five experiments were conducted on commercial farms in Brazil aiming to develop a fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) protocol that achieved pregnancy rates between 40% and 55% in Bos indicus cows. These studies resulted in the development of the following protocol: insertion of all intravaginal device containing 1.9 g of progesterone (CIDR) plus 2.0 mg im estradiol benzoate on Day 0; 12.5 mg im dinoprost tromethamine on Day 7 in cycling cows or oil Day 9 in anestrous cows; CIDR withdrawal plus 0.5 mg im estradiol cypionate plus temporary calf removal on Day 9; TAI (48 h after CIDR withdrawal) plus reuniting of calves with their dams on Day 11. Reduced dose of prostaglandin F(2 alpha) (PGF(2 alpha): 12.5 mg im dinoprost tromethamine) effectively caused luteolysis. In cycling cows, fertility was greater when the treatment with PGF(2 alpha) was administered on Day 7 than oil Day 9, but in anestrous cows, no effects of time of the PGF(2 alpha) treatment were found. Estradiol cypionate effectively replaced estradiol benzoate or gonadotropin-releasing hormone as the ovulatory stimulus, reducing labor and cost. In this protocol, CIDR inserts were successfully used four times (9 d each use) with no detrimental effects on fertility. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategies to improve fertility in postpartum multiparous Bos indicus cows submitted to a fixed-time insemination protocol with gonadotropin-releasing hormone and prostaglandin F-2 alpha

In Exp. 1, we evaluated the effects of 2 lengths of progesterone exposure [CIDR (controlled intravaginal drug release); 7 vs. 14 d] before a modified CO-Synch protocol [50.0-mu g injection of GnRH 6.5 d before a 25.0-mg injection of PGF(2 alpha) followed by another injection of GnRH and fixed-time AI (TAI) 2 d after PGF(2 alpha)], with or without temporary weaning (TW) before GnRH treatments, on fertility of suckled multiparous Bos indicus cows (n = 283) and on calf performance. Timed AI pregnancy rates for cows receiving 7 d CIDR + TW, 7 d CIDR, 14 d CIDR + TW, and 14 d CIDR were 53, 47, 46, and 41%, respectively (P > 0.10). Calves submitted to two 48-h TW 6 d apart had decreased mean BW at 240 d (187.9 +/- 2.7 vs. 195.5 +/- 2.7 kg; P < 0.05), but BW at 420 d was not affected by TW (240.1 +/- 5.1 kg). In Exp. 2, we evaluated the effect of no treatment and treatment with or without a CIDR insert between GnRH and PGF(2 alpha) treatments of a modified CO-Synch protocol on pregnancy rate to TAI, and throughout a 90-d breeding season in suckled multiparous Bos indicus cows (n = 453). The inclusion of a CIDR between first GnRH and PGF(2 alpha) treatments of a modified CO-Synch protocol did not improve pregnancy rate (29 and 33% for cows receiving CO-Synch + CIDR and CO-Synch protocol, respectively), and cycling cows had poorer TAI pregnancy rates than anestrous cows treated with either synchronization protocol (21.7 vs. 40.7%; P < 0.05). However, regardless of treatment with CIDR, cows submitted to TAI protocol had greater (P < 0.05) pregnancy rates at 30 (54.8 vs. 11.2%), 60 (72.1 vs. 38.8%), and 90 d (82.0 vs. 57.9%) of breeding season than untreated cows.