Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

Buckets, baskets and boots: exhibition event at MERL

Launch event part of Universities Week on Monday 9th Co-researchers from Reading College Learners with Learning Difficulties/Disabilities dept will present their Sensory Objects research in the Museum of English Rural Life (MERL)

Towards expressive rule induction on IP network event streams

In order to gain insights into events and issues that may cause errors and outages in parts of IP networks, intelligent methods that capture and express causal relationships online (in real-time) are needed. Whereas generalised rule induction has been explored for non-streaming data applications, its application and adaptation on streaming data is mostly undeveloped or based on periodic and ad-hoc training with batch algorithms. Some association rule mining approaches for streaming data do exist, however, they can only express binary causal relationships. This paper presents the ongoing work on Online Generalised Rule Induction (OGRI) in order to create expressive and adaptive rule sets real-time that can be applied to a broad range of applications, including network telemetry data streams.

A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved.

The impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland: a Bayesian chronological analysis using ‘activity events’ as a population proxy

The potential impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on human demography, settlement patterns and culture in Europe and the Near East has emerged as a key theme in current discussion and debate. We test whether this event had an impact on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland, a case study located within the North Atlantic region where the environmental impact of the 8.2 ka event is likely to have been the most severe. By undertaking a Bayesian analysis of the radiocarbon record and using the number of activity events as a proxy for the size of the human population, we find evidence for a dramatic reduction in the Mesolithic population synchronous with the 8.2 ka event. We interpret this as reflecting the demographic collapse of a low density population that lacked the capability to adapt to the rapid onset of new environmental conditions. This impact of the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region lends credence to the possibility of a similar impact on populations in Continental Europe and the Near East.

Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event

Drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, which may alter the composition of ecological communities. Using a functional community metric that describes abundance, life history traits and conservation status, based upon Grime’s CSR (Competitive-Stress tolerant-Ruderal)¬ scheme, we investigated how British butterfly communities changed during an extreme drought in 1995. Throughout Britain, the total abundance of these insects had a significant tendency to increase, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition, particularly in more northerly, wetter sites. Communities tended to shift away from specialist, vulnerable species, and towards generalist, widespread species and, in the year following, communities had yet to return to equilibrium. Importantly, heterogeneity in surrounding landscapes mediated community responses to the drought event. Contrary to expectation, however, community shifts were more extreme in areas of greater topographic diversity, whilst land-cover diversity buffered community changes and limited declines in vulnerable specialist butterflies.

Urinary metabolomic profiling to identify biomarkers of a flavonoid-rich and flavonoid-poor fruits and vegetables diet: the FLAVURS trial in adults: the FLAVURS trial

The present study aims to investigate the dose dependent effects of consuming diets enriched in flavonoid-rich and flavonoid-poor fruits and vegetables on the urine metabolome of adults who had a C1.5 fold increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. A single-blind, dose-dependent, parallel randomized controlled dietary intervention was conducted where volunteers (n = 126) were randomly assigned to one of three diets: high flavonoid diet, low flavonoid diet or habitual diet as a control for 18 weeks. High resolution LC– MS untargeted metabolomics with minimal sample cleanup was performed using an Orbitrap mass spectrometer. Putative biomarkers which characterize diets with high and low flavonoid content were selected by state-of-the-art data analysis strategies and identified by HR-MS and HR-MS/MS assays. Discrimination between diets was observed by application of two linear mixedmodels: one including a diet-time interaction effect and the second containing only a time effect. Valerolactones, phenolic acids and their derivatives were among sixteen biomarkers related to the high flavonoid dietary exposure. Four biomarkers related to the low flavonoid diet belonged to the family of phenolic acids. For the first time abscisic acid glucuronide was reported as a biomarker after a dietary intake, however its origins have to be examined by future hypothesis driven experiments using a more targeted approach. This metabolomic analysis has identified a number of dose dependent urinary biomarkers (i.e. proline betaine or iberin-N-acetyl cysteine), which can be used in future observation and intervention studies to assess flavonoids and nonflavonoid phenolic intakes and compliance to fruit and vegetable intervention.

An event of stratospheric air intrusion and its associated secondary surface cyclogenesis over the South Atlantic Ocean

This work presents an analysis of a lowermost stratospheric air intrusion event over the coast of Brazil, which may have been responsible for a secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The surface cyclone initiated at 0600 UTC 17 April 1999 in a cold air mass in the rear of a cold front after a primary cyclone developed over the same region. The analysis of the secondary cyclone revealed the presence of lowermost stratospheric air intrusion characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV), dry air, and high concentration of ozone in atmospheric column. The system developed on the eastern side of an upper level core of PV anomaly, which induced a cyclonic wind circulation at lower levels and favored the onset of the secondary cyclone. In midlevels (500 hPa), the cutoff low development contributed to reduce the propagation speed of the wave pattern. This feature seemed to (1) allow the low-level cold/dry air to heat/moisten associated with sensible and latent fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, which intensified a baroclinic zone parallel to the coast, and (2) contribute to the long duration of the system. The present analysis indicates that this secondary cyclone development could be the result of the coupling between the PV anomaly in the upper levels and low-level air-sea interaction.

Gene Expression Profiling of Cultured Cells From Brainstem of Newborn Spontaneously Hypertensive and Wistar Kyoto Rats

The spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) is a good model to study several diseases such as the attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, cardiopulmonary impairment, nephropathy, as well as hypertension, which is a multifactor disease that possibly involves alterations in gene expression in hypertensive relative to normotensive subjects. In this study, we used high-density oligoarrays to compare gene expression profiles in cultured neurons and glia from brainstem of newborn normotensive Wistar Kyoto (WKY) and SHR rats. We found 376 genes differentially expressed between SHR and WKY brainstem cells that preferentially map to 17 metabolic/signaling pathways. Some of the pathways and regulated genes identified herein are obviously related to cardiovascular regulation; in addition there are several genes differentially expressed in SHR not yet associated to hypertension, which may be attributed to other differences between SHR and WKY strains. This constitute a rich resource for the identification and characterization of novel genes associated to phenotypic differences observed in SHR relative to WKY, including hypertension. In conclusion, this study describes for the first time the gene profiling pattern of brainstem cells from SHR and WKY rats, which opens up new possibilities and strategies of investigation and possible therapeutics to hypertension, as well as for the understanding of the brain contribution to phenotypic differences between SHR and WKY rats.

Phosphoproteomics Profiling Suggests a Role for Nuclear beta IPKC in Transcription Processes of Undifferentiated Murine Embryonic Stem Cells

Protein kinase C (PKC) plays a key role in embryonic stem cell (ESC) proliferation, self-renewal and differentiation However, the function of specific PKC Isoenzymes have yet to be determined Of the PKCs expressed in undifferentiated ESCs, beta IPKC was the only isoenzyme abundantly expressed in the nuclei To investigate the role of beta IPKC in these cells, we employed a phosphoproteomics strategy and used two classical (cPKC) peptide modulators and one beta IPKC-specific inhibitor peptide We identified 13 nuclear proteins that are direct or indirect beta IPKC substrates in undifferentiated ESCs These proteins are known to be involved in regulating transcription, splicing, and chromatin remodeling during proliferation and differentiation Inhibiting beta IPKC had no effect on DNA synthesis in undifferentiated ESCs However, upon differentiation many cells seized to express beta IPKC and beta IPKC was frequently found in the cytoplasm Taken together, our results suggest that beta IPKC takes part in the processes that maintain ESCs in their undifferentiated state

Dust and smoke transport from Africa to South America: Lidar profiling over Cape Verde and the Amazon rainforest

Quasi-simultaneous vertically resolved multiwavelength aerosol Raman lidar observations were conducted in the near field (Praia, Cape Verde, 15 degrees N, 23.5 degrees W) and in the far field (Manaus, Amazon basin, Brazil, 2.5 degrees S, 60 degrees W) of the long-range transport regime between West Africa and South America. Based on a unique data set (case study) of spectrally resolved backscatter and extinction coefficients, and of the depolarization ratio a detailed characterization of aerosol properties, vertical stratification, mixing, and aging behavior during the long-distance travel in February 2008 (dry season in western Africa, wet season in the Amazon basin) is presented. While highly stratified aerosol layers of dust and smoke up to 5.5 km height were found close to Africa, the aerosol over Manaus was almost well-mixed, reached up to 3.5 km, and mainly consisted of aged biomass burning smoke. Citation: Ansmann, A., H. Baars, M. Tesche, D. Muller, D. Althausen, R. Engelmann, T. Pauliquevis, and P. Artaxo (2009), Dust and smoke transport from Africa to South America: Lidar profiling over Cape Verde and the Amazon rainforest, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11802, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037923.

A faraway quasar in the direction of the highest energy Auger event

The highest energy cosmic ray event reported by the Auger Observatory has an energy of 148 EeV. It does not correlate with any nearby (z<0.024) object capable of originating such a high energy event. Intrigued by the fact that the highest energy event ever recorded (by the Fly`s Eye collaboration) points to a faraway quasar with very high radio luminosity and large Faraday rotation measurement, we have searched for a similar source for the Auger event. We find that the Auger highest energy event points to a quasar with similar characteristics to the one correlated to the Fly`s Eye event. We also find the same kind of correlation for one of the highest energy AGASA events. We conclude that so far these types of quasars are the best source candidates for both Auger and Fly`s Eye highest energy events. We discuss a few exotic candidates that could reach us from gigaparsec distances.

Absolute normalization for uncorrelated background with the event mixing technique

We present a method to determine the magnitude of the uncorrelated background distribution obtained with the event mixing technique, through the simultaneous observation of the projectile elastic scattering in different detectors, which correspond to random coincidences. The procedure is tested with alpha-d angular correlation data from the (6)Li + (59)Co reaction at E(lab) = 29.6 MeV. We also show that the method can be applied using the product of singles events, when singles measurements are available. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Cariris Velhos tectonic event in Northeast Brazil

The Borborema Province in northeastern South America is a typical Brasiliano-Pan-African branching system of Neoproterozoic orogens that forms part of the Western Gondwana assembly. The province is positioned between the Sao Luis-West Africa craton to the north and the Sao Francisco (Congo-Kasai) craton to the south. For this province the main characteristics are (a) its subdivision into five major tectonic domains, bounded mostly by long shear zones, as follows: Medio Coreau, Ceara Central, Rio Grande do Norte, Transversal, and Southern; (b) the alternation of supracrustal belts with reworked basement inliers (Archean nuclei + Paleoproterozoic belts); and (c) the diversity of granitic plutonism, from Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian ages, that affect supracrustal rocks as well as basement inliers. Recently, orogenic rock assemblages of early Tonian (1000-920 Ma) orogenic evolution have been recognized, which are restricted to the Transversal and Southern domains of the Province. Within the Transversal Zone, the Alto Pajeu terrane locally includes some remnants of oceanic crust along with island arc and continental arc rock assemblages, but the dominant supracrustal rocks are mature and immature pelitic metasedimentary and metavolcaniclastic rocks. Contiguous and parallel to the Alto Pajeu terrane, the Riacho Gravata subterrane consists mainly of low-grade metamorphic successions of metarhythmites, some of which are clearly turbiditic in origin, metaconglomerates, and sporadic marbles, along with interbedded metarhyolitic and metadacitic volcanic or metavolcaniclastic rocks. Both terrane and subterrane are cut by syn-contractional intrusive sheets of dominantly peraluminous high-K calc-alkaline, granititic to granodioritic metaplutonic rocks. The geochemical patterns of both supracrustal and intrusive rocks show similarities with associations of mature continental arc volcano-sedimentary sequences, but some subordinate intra-plate characteristics are also found. In both the Alto Pajeu and Riacho Gravata terranes, TIMS and SHRIMP U-Pb isotopic data from zircons from both metavolcanic and metaplutonic rocks yield ages between 1.0 and 0.92 Ga, which define the time span for an event of orogenic character, the Cariris Velhos event. Less extensive occurrences of rocks of Cariris Velhos age are recognized mainly in the southernmost domains of the Province, as for example in the Polo Redondo-Maranco terrane, where arc-affinity migmatite-granitic and meta-volcano-sedimentary rocks show U-Pb ages (SHRIMP data) around 0.98-0.97 Ga. For all these domains, Sm-Nd data exhibit Tom model ages between 1.9 and 1.1 Ga with corresponding slightly negative to slightly positive epsilon(Nd)(t) values. These domains, along with the Borborema Province as a whole, were significantly affected by tectonic and magmatic events of the Brasiliano Cycle (0.7-0.5 Ga), so that it is possible that there are some other early Tonian rock assemblages which were completely masked and hidden by these later Brasiliano events. Cariris Velhos processes are younger than the majority of orogenic systems at the end of Mesoproterozoic Era and beginning of Neoproterozoic throughout the world, e.g. Irumide belt, Kibaride belt and Namaqua-Natal belt, and considerably younger than those of the youngest orogenic process (Ottawan) in the Grenvillian System. Therefore, they were probably not associated with the proposed assembly of Rodinia. We suggest, instead, that Cariris Velhos magmatism and tectonism could have been related to a continental margin magmatic arc, with possible back-arc associations, and that this margin may have been a short-lived (<100 m.y.) leading edge of the newly assembled Rodinia supercontinent. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-collisional lamprophyric event in Sierra Norte, Cordoba, Argentina: Mineralogical, geochemical and isotopic characteristics

Over 20 lamprophyre dykes, varying in width between a few centimeters and several meters, have been identified in central Sierra Norte - Eastern Pampean Ranges, Cordoba, Argentina. Their mineralogy and chemistry indicate that they are part of the calc-alkaline lamprophyres clan (CAL). They contain phenocrysts of magnesiohomblende +/- augite set in a groundmass of magnesiohornblende, calcic-plagioclase, alkali feldspar, and opaque minerals, which designate them as spessartite-type lamprophyres. Alteration products include chlorite, calcite and iron oxides after malfic phenocrysts, though some are partially replaced by actinolite. Feldspars are replaced by carbonate and clay minerals. The dykes are relatively primitive, and show restricted major element variation (SiO(2) 51.1-55.3 wt.%, Al(2)O(3) 12-16.6 wt.%, total alkalies 1.5-4.7 wt.%), high Mg# (55-77), high Cr contents (27-988 ppm) and moderate to high Ni contents (60-190 ppm). Lamprophyre LILE (e.g. Rb averages 110 ppm, Sr 211-387 ppm, Ba 203-452 ppm) are high relative to HFSE (e.g., Ta 0.2-1.6 ppm, Nb 4-11 ppm, Y 17-21 ppm), and are enriched in LREE (30-70 times chondrite). They are characterized by relatively high (208)Pb/(204)Pb (38.8-39.9), (207)Pb/(204)Pb(similar to 15.7), and (206)Pb/(204)Pb (18.7-20.1), combined with low (epsilon)epsilon(Nd) (-4.69 to -1.52) and a relative moderately high ((87)Sr/(86)Sr)(i) of 0.7055-0.7074. The Rb-Sr whole rock isochron indicates an Early Ordovician age of 485 +/- 25 Ma. The calculated T(DM) (1.7 Ga) suggests that these rocks appear to have originated from a reservoir that was created during a mantle metasomatism event related to the Pampean orogeny. The Sierra Norte lamprophyres show affinities with a subduction-related magma in an active continental margin. Their geochemical and isotopic features suggest a multicomponent source, composed of enriched mantle material variably contaminated by crustal components. The lamprophyric suite emplacement occurred at the dawning stage of the Pampean orogeny, in a regional post-collisional extensional setting developed in the Sierra Norte-Ambargasta batholith (SNAB) in Early Ordovician times. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd.