Dynamic equivalent state estimation for multi-area power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units

This paper proposes a new approach for state estimation of angles and frequencies of equivalent areas in large power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units. Defining coherent generators and their correspondent areas, generators are aggregated and system reduction is performed in each area of inter-connected power systems. The structure of the reduced system is obtained based on the characteristics of the reduced linear model and measurement data to form the non-linear model of the reduced system. Then a Kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to provide an equivalent dynamic system state estimation using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The method is simulated on two test systems to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Preliminary Design and Performance Estimation of Radial Inflow Turbines: An Automated Approach

A comprehensive one-dimensional meanline design approach for radial inflow turbines is described in the present work. An original code was developed in Python that takes a novel approach to the automatic selection of feasible machines based on pre-defined performance or geometry characteristics for a given application. It comprises a brute-force search algorithm that traverses the entire search space based on key non-dimensional parameters and rotational speed. In this study, an in-depth analysis and subsequent implementation of relevant loss models as well as selection criteria for radial inflow turbines is addressed. Comparison with previously published designs, as well as other available codes, showed good agreement. Sample (real and theoretical) test cases were trialed and results showed good agreement when compared to other available codes. The presented approach was found to be valid and the model was found to be a useful tool with regards to the preliminary design and performance estimation of radial inflow turbines, enabling its integration with other thermodynamic cycle analysis and three-dimensional blade design codes.

Estimation of reference values for dioxin, furan, and PCB congener concentrations for the Australian population

Population-representative data for dioxin and PCB congener concentrations are available for the Australian population based on measurements in age- and gender-specific serum pools.1 Such data provide a basis for characterizing the mean concentrations of these compounds in the population, but do not provide information on the inter-individual variation in serum concentrations that may exist in the population within an age- and gender-specific group. Such variation may occur due to inter-individual differences in long-term exposure levels or elimination rates. Reference values are estimates of upper percentiles (often the 95th percentile) of measured values in a defined population that can be used to evaluate data from individuals in the population in order to identify concentrations that are elevated, for example, from occupational exposures.2 The objective of this analysis is to estimate reference values corresponding to the 95th percentile (RV95s) for Australia on an age-specific basis for individual dioxin-like congeners based on measurements in serum pools from Toms and Mueller (2010).

Dealing with heterogeneity problems and causal effect estimation in entrepreneurship research

This paper deals with causal effect estimation strategies in highly heterogeneous empirical settings such as entrepreneurship. We argue that the clearer used of modern tools developed to deal with the estimation of causal effects in combination with our analysis of different sources of heterogeneity in entrepreneurship can lead to entrepreneurship with higher internal validity. We specifically lend support from the counterfactual logic and modern research of estimation strategies for causal effect estimation.

Assessing the Impact of Sensor Accuracy and Sensor Choice on Air Traffic Conflict Risk Estimation using Risk-Ratio Concepts

One of the primary desired capabilities of any future air traffic separation management system is the ability to provide early conflict detection and resolution effectively and efficiently. In this paper, we consider the risk of conflict as a primary measurement to be used for early conflict detection. This paper focuses on developing a novel approach to assess the impact of different measurement uncertainty models on the estimated risk of conflict. The measurement uncertainty model can be used to represent different sensor accuracy and sensor choices. Our study demonstrates the value of modelling measurement uncertainty in the conflict risk estimation problem and presents techniques providing a means of assessing sensor requirements to achieve desired conflict detection performance.

Permeability estimation conditioned to geophysical downhole log data in sandstones of the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland : methods and application

This study uses borehole geophysical log data of sonic velocity and electrical resistivity to estimate permeability in sandstones in the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland. The prior estimates of permeability are calculated according to the deterministic log–log linear empirical correlations between electrical resistivity and measured permeability. Both negative and positive relationships are influenced by the clay content. The prior estimates of permeability are updated in a Bayesian framework for three boreholes using both the cokriging (CK) method and a normal linear regression (NLR) approach to infer the likelihood function. The results show that the mean permeability estimated from the CK-based Bayesian method is in better agreement with the measured permeability when a fairly apparent linear relationship exists between the logarithm of permeability and sonic velocity. In contrast, the NLR-based Bayesian approach gives better estimates of permeability for boreholes where no linear relationship exists between logarithm permeability and sonic velocity.

Integrating collaborative filtering and matching-based search for product recommendation

Currently, recommender systems (RS) have been widely applied in many commercial e-commerce sites to help users deal with the information overload problem. Recommender systems provide personalized recommendations to users and thus help them in making good decisions about which product to buy from the vast number of product choices available to them. Many of the current recommender systems are developed for simple and frequently purchased products like books and videos, by using collaborative-filtering and content-based recommender system approaches. These approaches are not suitable for recommending luxurious and infrequently purchased products as they rely on a large amount of ratings data that is not usually available for such products. This research aims to explore novel approaches for recommending infrequently purchased products by exploiting user generated content such as user reviews and product click streams data. From reviews on products given by the previous users, association rules between product attributes are extracted using an association rule mining technique. Furthermore, from product click streams data, user profiles are generated using the proposed user profiling approach. Two recommendation approaches are proposed based on the knowledge extracted from these resources. The first approach is developed by formulating a new query from the initial query given by the target user, by expanding the query with the suitable association rules. In the second approach, a collaborative-filtering recommender system and search-based approaches are integrated within a hybrid system. In this hybrid system, user profiles are used to find the target user’s neighbour and the subsequent products viewed by them are then used to search for other relevant products. Experiments have been conducted on a real world dataset collected from one of the online car sale companies in Australia to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed recommendation approaches. The experiment results show that user profiles generated from user click stream data and association rules generated from user reviews can improve recommendation accuracy. In addition, the experiment results also prove that the proposed query expansion and the hybrid collaborative filtering and search-based approaches perform better than the baseline approaches. Integrating the collaborative-filtering and search-based approaches has been challenging as this strategy has not been widely explored so far especially for recommending infrequently purchased products. Therefore, this research will provide a theoretical contribution to the recommender system field as a new technique of combining collaborative-filtering and search-based approaches will be developed. This research also contributes to a development of a new query expansion technique for infrequently purchased products recommendation. This research will also provide a practical contribution to the development of a prototype system for recommending cars.

Estimation Of concrete resistance To chloride-ion penetration based On water accessible porosity and unit weight Of concrete

To ensure better concrete quality and long-term durability, there has been an increasing focus in recent years on the development of test methods for quality control of concrete. This paper presents a study to evaluate the effect of water accessible porosity and oven-dry unit weight on the resistance of concrete to chloride-ion penetration. Based on the experimental results and regression analyses, empirical relationships of the charge passed (ASTM C 1202) and chloride migration coefficient (NT Build 492) versus the water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight of the concrete are established. Using basic physical properties of water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight which can be easily determined, total charge passed and migration coefficient of the concrete can be estimated for quality control and for estimating durability of concrete.

Gradual training of cascaded shape regression for facial landmark localization and pose estimation

Facial landmarks play an important role in face recognition. They serve different steps of the recognition such as pose estimation, face alignment, and local feature extraction. Recently, cascaded shape regression has been proposed to accurately locate facial landmarks. A large number of weak regressors are cascaded in a sequence to fit face shapes to the correct landmark locations. In this paper, we propose to improve the method by applying gradual training. With this training, the regressors are not directly aimed to the true locations. The sequence instead is divided into successive parts each of which is aimed to intermediate targets between the initial and the true locations. We also investigate the incorporation of pose information in the cascaded model. The aim is to find out whether the model can be directly used to estimate head pose. Experiments on the Annotated Facial Landmarks in the Wild database have shown that the proposed method is able to improve the localization and give accurate estimates of pose.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Traffic density estimation of signalised arterials with stop line detector and probe data

This research aims to develop a reliable density estimation method for signalised arterials based on cumulative counts from upstream and downstream detectors. In order to overcome counting errors associated with urban arterials with mid-link sinks and sources, CUmulative plots and Probe Integration for Travel timE estimation (CUPRITE) is employed for density estimation. The method, by utilizing probe vehicles’ samples, reduces or cancels the counting inconsistencies when vehicles’ conservation is not satisfied within a section. The method is tested in a controlled environment, and the authors demonstrate the effectiveness of CUPRITE for density estimation in a signalised section, and discuss issues associated with the method.

Integrating collaborative filtering and matching-based search for product recommendations

Currently, recommender systems (RS) have been widely applied in many commercial e-commerce sites to help users deal with the information overload problem. Recommender systems provide personalized recommendations to users and, thus, help in making good decisions about which product to buy from the vast amount of product choices. Many of the current recommender systems are developed for simple and frequently purchased products like books and videos, by using collaborative-filtering and content-based approaches. These approaches are not directly applicable for recommending infrequently purchased products such as cars and houses as it is difficult to collect a large number of ratings data from users for such products. Many of the ecommerce sites for infrequently purchased products are still using basic search-based techniques whereby the products that match with the attributes given in the target user’s query are retrieved and recommended. However, search-based recommenders cannot provide personalized recommendations. For different users, the recommendations will be the same if they provide the same query regardless of any difference in their interest. In this article, a simple user profiling approach is proposed to generate user’s preferences to product attributes (i.e., user profiles) based on user product click stream data. The user profiles can be used to find similarminded users (i.e., neighbours) accurately. Two recommendation approaches are proposed, namely Round- Robin fusion algorithm (CFRRobin) and Collaborative Filtering-based Aggregated Query algorithm (CFAgQuery), to generate personalized recommendations based on the user profiles. Instead of using the target user’s query to search for products as normal search based systems do, the CFRRobin technique uses the attributes of the products in which the target user’s neighbours have shown interest as queries to retrieve relevant products, and then recommends to the target user a list of products by merging and ranking the returned products using the Round Robin method. The CFAgQuery technique uses the attributes of the products that the user’s neighbours have shown interest in to derive an aggregated query, which is then used to retrieve products to recommend to the target user. Experiments conducted on a real e-commerce dataset show that both the proposed techniques CFRRobin and CFAgQuery perform better than the standard Collaborative Filtering and the Basic Search approaches, which are widely applied by the current e-commerce applications.

Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.

Lane filtering and situation awareness in motorcyclists : an on-road proof of concept study

In Victoria, as in other jurisdictions, there is very little research on the potential risks and benefits of lane filtering by motorcyclists, particularly from a road safety perspective. This on-road proof of concept study aimed to investigate whether and how lane filtering influences motorcycle rider situation awareness at intersections and to address factors that need to be considered for the design of a larger study in this area. Situation awareness refers to road users’ understanding of ‘what is going on’ around them and is a critical commodity for safe performance. Twenty-five experienced motorcyclists rode their own instrumented motorcycle around an urban test route in Melbourne whilst providing verbal protocols. Lane filtering occurred in 27% of 43 possible instances in which there were one or more vehicles in the traffic queue and the traffic lights were red on approach to the intersection. A network analysis procedure, based on the verbal protocols provided by motorcyclists, was used to identify differences in motorcyclist situation awareness between filtering and non-filtering events. Although similarities in situation awareness across filtering and nonfiltering motorcyclists were found, the analysis revealed some differences. For example, filtering motorcyclists placed more emphasis on the timing of the traffic light sequence and on their own actions when moving to the front of the traffic queue, whilst non-filtering motorcyclists paid greater attention to traffic moving through the intersection and approaching from behind. Based on the results of this study, the paper discusses some methodological and theoretical issues to be addressed in a larger study comparing situation awareness between filtering and non-filtering motorcyclists.

Traffic density estimation of signalised arterials with stop line detector and probe data

This research aims to develop a reliable density estimation method for signalised arterials based on cumulative counts from upstream and downstream detectors. In order to overcome counting errors associated with urban arterials with mid-link sinks and sources, CUmulative plots and Probe Integration for Travel timE estimation (CUPRITE) is employed for density estimation. The method, by utilizing probe vehicles’ samples, reduces or cancels the counting inconsistencies when vehicles’ conservation is not satisfied within a section. The method is tested in a controlled environment, and the authors demonstrate the effectiveness of CUPRITE for density estimation in a signalised section, and discuss issues associated with the method.