A data mining driven crash risk profiling method for road asset management

This thesis takes a new data mining approach for analyzing road/crash data by developing models for the whole road network and generating a crash risk profile. Roads with an elevated crash risk due to road surface friction deficit are identified. The regression tree model, predicting road segment crash rate, is applied in a novel deployment coined regression tree extrapolation that produces a skid resistance/crash rate curve. Using extrapolation allows the method to be applied across the network and cope with the high proportion of missing road surface friction values. This risk profiling method can be applied in other domains.

Segmental torso masses and gravity-induced coronal plane joint moments in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Introduction: Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. This study used supine CT scans of AIS patients to measure segmental torso masses and explored the joint moments in the coronal plane, particularly at the apex of a scoliotic major curve. Methods: Existing low dose CT data from the Paediatric Spine Research Group was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint moments occurring in the spine for a group of 20 female AIS patients with right sided thoracic curves. The mean age was 15.0 ± 2.7 years and all curves were classified Lenke Type 1 with a mean Cobb angle 52 ± 5.9°. Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to create reformatted coronal plane images, reconstruct vertebral level-by-level torso segments and subsequently measure the torso volume corresponding to each vertebral level. Segment mass was then determined by assuming a tissue density of 1.04x103 kg/m3. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data (Winter 2009). Intervertebral joint moments in the coronal plane at each vertebral level were found from the position of the centroid of the segment masses relative to the joint centres with the segmental body mass data. Results and Discussion: The magnitude of the torso masses from T1-L5 increased inferiorly, with a 150% increase in mean segmental torso mass from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The magnitudes of the calculated coronal plane joint moments during relaxed standing were typically 5-7 Nm at the apex of the curve, with the highest apex joint torque of 7Nm. The CT scans were performed in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be 7-10° smaller than those measured in standing, due to the absence of gravity acting on the spine. Hence, it can be expected that the moments produced by gravity in the standing individual will be greater than those calculated here.

Fire safety of buildings based on realistic fire time-temperature curves

In recent times, fire has become a major disaster in buildings due to the increase in fire loads, as a result of modern furniture and light weight construction. This has caused problems for safe evacuation and rescue activities, and in some instances lead to the collapse of buildings (Lewis, 2008 and Nyman, 2002). Recent research has shown that the actual fire resistance of building elements exposed to building fires can be less than their specified fire resistance rating (Lennon and Moore, 2003, Jones, 2002, Nyman, 2002 and Abecassis-Empis et al. 2008). Conventionally the fire rating of building elements is determined using fire tests based on the standard fire time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. This ISO 834 curve was developed in the early 1900s, where wood was the basic fuel source. In reality, modern buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. These materials are high in calorific values and increase both the speed of fire growth and heat release rate, thus increasing the fire severity beyond that of the standard fire curve. Hence it suggests the need to use realistic fire time-temperature curves in tests. Real building fire temperature profiles depend on the fuel load representing the combustible building contents, ventilation openings and thermal properties of wall lining materials. Fuel load is selected based on a review and suitable realistic fire time-temperature curves were developed. Fire tests were then performed for plasterboard lined light gauge steel framed walls for the developed realistic fire curves. This paper presents the details of the development of suitable realistic building fire curves, and the fire tests using them. It describes the fire performance of tested walls in comparison to the standard fire tests and highlights the differences between them. This research has shown the need to use realistic fire exposures in assessing the fire resistance rating of building elements.

Quantum one-time programs

A one-time program is a hypothetical device by which a user may evaluate a circuit on exactly one input of his choice, before the device self-destructs. One-time programs cannot be achieved by software alone, as any software can be copied and re-run. However, it is known that every circuit can be compiled into a one-time program using a very basic hypothetical hardware device called a one-time memory. At first glance it may seem that quantum information, which cannot be copied, might also allow for one-time programs. But it is not hard to see that this intuition is false: one-time programs for classical or quantum circuits based solely on quantum information do not exist, even with computational assumptions. This observation raises the question, "what assumptions are required to achieve one-time programs for quantum circuits?" Our main result is that any quantum circuit can be compiled into a one-time program assuming only the same basic one-time memory devices used for classical circuits. Moreover, these quantum one-time programs achieve statistical universal composability (UC-security) against any malicious user. Our construction employs methods for computation on authenticated quantum data, and we present a new quantum authentication scheme called the trap scheme for this purpose. As a corollary, we establish UC-security of a recent protocol for delegated quantum computation.

A data mining driven risk profiling method for road asset management

Road surface skid resistance has been shown to have a strong relationship to road crash risk, however, applying the current method of using investigatory levels to identify crash prone roads is problematic as they may fail in identifying risky roads outside of the norm. The proposed method analyses a complex and formerly impenetrable volume of data from roads and crashes using data mining. This method rapidly identifies roads with elevated crash-rate, potentially due to skid resistance deficit, for investigation. A hypothetical skid resistance/crash risk curve is developed for each road segment, driven by the model deployed in a novel regression tree extrapolation method. The method potentially solves the problem of missing skid resistance values which occurs during network-wide crash analysis, and allows risk assessment of the major proportion of roads without skid resistance values.

Pharmacokinetics-based elucidation on disparity in clinical effectiveness between varieties of Zhi Zhu Wan, a traditional Chinese medical formula

AIM: Zhi Zhu Wan (ZZW) is a classical Chinese medical formulation used for the treatment of functional dyspepsia that attributed to Spleen-deficiency Syndrome. ZZW contains Atractylodes Rhizome and Fructus Citrus Immaturus, the later originates from both Citrus aurantium L. (BZZW) and Citrus sinensis Osbeck (RZZW). The present study is designed to elucidate disparities in the clinical efficacy of two ZZW varieties based on the pharmacokinetics of naringenin and hesperetin. MEHTOD: After oral administration of ZZWs, blood sample was collected from healthy volunteers at designed time points. Naringenin and hesperetin were detected in plasma by RP-HPLC, pharmacokinetic parameters were processed using mode-independent methods with WINNONLIN. RESULTS: After oral administration of BZZW, both naringenin and hesperetin were detected in plasma, and demonstrated similar pharmacokinetic parameters. Ka was 0.384+/-0.165 and 0.401+/-0.159, T(1/2(ke))(h) was 5.491+/-3.926 and 5.824+/-3.067, the AUC (mg/Lh) was 34.886+/-22.199 and 39.407+/-19.535 for naringenin and hesperetin, respectively. However, in the case of RZZW, only hesperetin was found in plasma, but the pharmacokinetic properties for hesperetin in RZZW was different from that in BZZW. T(max) for hesperetin in RZZW is about 8.515h, and its C(max) is much larger than that of BZZW. Moreover, it was eliminated slowly as it possessed a much larger AUC value. CONCLUSION: The distinct therapeutic orientations of the Chinese medical formula ZZWs with different Fructus Citrus Immaturus could be elucidated based on the pharmacokinetic parameters of constituents after oral administration.

Pharmacokinetics of isofraxidin in rat plasma after oral administration of the extract of acanthopanax senticosus using HPLC with solid phase extraction method

High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with solid phase extraction method was developed for determination of isofraxidin in rat plasma after oral administration of Acanthopanax senticosus extract (ASE), and pharmacokinetic parameters of isofraxidin either in ASE or pure compound were measured. The HPLC analysis was performed on a Dikma Diamonsil RP(18) column (4.6 mm x 150 mm, 5 microm) with the isocratic elution of solvent A (acetonitrile) and solvent B (0.1% aqueous phosphoric acid, v/v) (A : B = 22 : 78) and the detection wavelength was set at 343 nm. The calibration curve was linear over the range of 0.156-15.625 microg/ml. The limit of detection was 60 ng/ml. The intra-day precision was 5.8%, and the inter-day precision was 6.0%. The recovery was 87.30+/-1.73%. When the dosage of ASE is equal to pure compound caculated by the amount of isofraxidin, it has been found to have two maximum concentrations in plasma while the pure compound only showed one peak in the plasma concentration-time curve. The determined content of isofraxidin in plasma after oral administration of ASE is the total contents of free isofraxidin and its precursors in ASE in vitro. The pharmacokinetic characteristics of ASE showed the priority of the extract and the properities of traditional Chinese medicine.

Pharmacokinetics of cimifugin in rat plasma after oral administration of the extract of Saposhnikovia divaricatae root : Determination of cimifugin by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with solid phase extraction

High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) coupled with the solid phase extraction method was developed for determining cimifugin (a coumarin derivative; one of Saposhnikovia divaricatae's constituents) in rat plasma after oral administration of Saposhnikovia divaricatae extract (SDE), and the pharmacokinetics of cimifugin either in SDE or as a single compound was investigated. The HPLC analysis was performed on a commercially available column (4.6 mm x 200 mm, 5 pm) with the isocratic elution of solvent A (Methanol) and solvent B (Water) (A:B=60:40) and the detection wavelength was set at 250 nm. The calibration curve was linear over the range of 0.100-10.040 microg/mL. The limit of detection was 30 ng/mL. At the rat plasma concentrations of 0.402, 4.016, 10.040 microg/mL, the intra-day precision was 6.21%, 3.98%, and 2.23%; the inter-day precision was 7.59%, 4.26%, and 2.09%, respectively. The absolute recovery was 76.58%, 76.61%, and 77.67%, respectively. When the dosage of SDE was equal to the pure compound calculated by the amount of cimifugin, it was found to have two maximum peaks while the pure compound only showed one peak in the plasma concentration-time curve. The pharmacokinetic characteristics of SDE showed the superiority of the extract and the properties of traditional Chinese medicine.

An envirogenomic signature is associated with risk of IBD-related surgery in a population-based Crohn’s Disease cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Crohn's disease (CD) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) caused by a combination of genetic, clinical, and environmental factors. Identification of CD patients at high risk of requiring surgery may assist clinicians to decide on a top-down or step-up treatment approach. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control analysis of a population-based cohort of 503 CD patients. A regression-based data reduction approach was used to systematically analyse 63 genomic, clinical and environmental factors for association with IBD-related surgery as the primary outcome variable. RESULTS: A multi-factor model was identified that yielded the highest predictive accuracy for need for surgery. The factors included in the model were the NOD2 genotype (OR = 1.607, P = 2.3 × 10(-5)), having ever had perianal disease (OR = 2.847, P = 4 × 10(-6)), being post-diagnosis smokers (OR = 6.312, P = 7.4 × 10(-3)), being an ex-smoker at diagnosis (OR = 2.405, P = 1.1 × 10(-3)) and age (OR = 1.012, P = 4.4 × 10(-3)). Diagnostic testing for this multi-factor model produced an area under the curve of 0.681 (P = 1 × 10(-4)) and an odds ratio of 3.169, (95 % CI P = 1 × 10(-4)) which was higher than any factor considered independently. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study require validation in other populations but represent a step forward in the development of more accurate prognostic tests for clinicians to prescribe the most optimal treatment approach for complicated CD patients.

The employment effects of gender discrimination in Australia 1994-95

Interpreting the unexplained component of the gender wage gap as indicative of discrimination, the empirical literature to date has tended to ignore the potential impact wage discrimination may have on employment. Clearly, employment effects will arise if discrimination lowers the female offered wage and the labour supply curve is upward sloping. The empirical analysis employs the ABS Income Distribution Survey 1994–95 and finds evidence of both wage and associated employment effects. The analysis is replicated for the earlier period 1989–90. A comparison across time is of interest given the substantial deregulation of the Australian labour market over the period.

Are employment effects of gender discrimination important? Some evidence from Great Britain

Interpreting the unexplained component of the gender wage gap as indicative of discrimination, the empirical literature to date has tended to ignore the potential impact wage discrimination may have on employment. Employment effects may arise if discrimination lowers the female offered wage and the labour supply curve is upward sloping. The empirical analysis employs the British Household Panel Study and finds evidence of both wage and associated employment effects.

Laboratory measurement of hydraulic conductivity functions of two unsaturated sandy soils during drying and wetting processes

The importance of applying unsaturated soil mechanics to geotechnical engineering design has been well understood. However, the consumption of time and the necessity for a specific laboratory testing apparatus when measuring unsaturated soil properties have limited the application of unsaturated soil mechanics theories in practice. Although methods for predicting unsaturated soil properties have been developed, the verification of these methods for a wide range of soil types is required in order to increase the confidence of practicing engineers in using these methods. In this study, a new permeameter was developed to measure the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils using the steady-state method and directly measured suction (negative pore-water pressure) values. The apparatus is instrumented with two tensiometers for the direct measurement of suction during the tests. The apparatus can be used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity function of sandy soil over a low suction range (0-10 kPa). Firstly, the repeatability of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measurement, using the new permeameter, was verified by conducting tests on two identical sandy soil specimens and obtaining similar results. The hydraulic conductivity functions of the two sandy soils were then measured during the drying and wetting processes of the soils. A significant hysteresis was observed when the hydraulic conductivity was plotted against the suction. However, the hysteresis effects were not apparent when the conductivity was plotted against the volumetric water content. Furthermore, the measured unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions were compared with predictions using three different predictive methods that are widely incorporated into numerical software. The results suggest that these predictive methods are capable of capturing the measured behavior with reasonable agreement.

Validity and reliability of nutrition screening administered by nurses

Background: Nutrition screening is usually administered by nurses. However, most studies on nutrition screening tools have not used nurses to validate the tools. The 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) assesses weight loss, dietary intake and muscle wastage, with the composite score of each used to determine risk of malnutrition. The aim of the study was to determine the validity and reliability of 3-MinNS administered by nurses, who are the intended assessors. Methods: In this cross sectional study, three ward-based nurses screened 121 patients aged 21 years and over using 3-MinNS in three wards within 24 hours of admission. A dietitian then assessed the patients’ nutritional status using Subjective Global Assessment within 48 hours of admission, whilst blinded to the results of the screening. To assess the reliability of 3-MinNS, 37 patients screened by the first nurse were re-screened by a second nurse within 24 hours, who was blinded to the results of the first nurse. The sensitivity, specificity and best cutoff score for 3-MinNS were determined using the Receiver Operator Characteristics Curve. Results: The best cutoff score to identify all patients at risk of malnutrition using 3-MinNS was three, with sensitivity of 89% and specificity of 88%. This cutoff point also identified all (100%) severely malnourished patients. There was strong correlation between 3-MinNS and SGA (r=0.78, p<0.001). The agreement between two nurses conducting the 3-MinNS tool was 78.3%. Conclusion: 3-Minute Nutrition Screening is a valid and reliable tool for nurses to identify patients at risk of malnutrition.

Diurnal rhythm and effects of feeding, exercise and recombinant equine growth hormone on serum insulin concentrations in the horse

Reasons for performing the study As growth hormone increases lean body mass, it could be a therapy for obese horses. However, growth hormone use induces hyperinsulinaemia in some species, so further investigation is warranted. Objectives To investigate the effects of feeding, exercise and growth hormone therapy on basal insulin concentrations in healthy horses. Study design In vivo experimental study. Methods Blood samples were obtained every 30 min from 12 geldings over 24 h, to establish basal serum insulin concentrations, before they underwent a 3-week exercise programme. Horses were allocated into 2 groups and exercised for another 4 weeks. Group A received daily i.m. injections of recombinant equine growth hormone; 5 mg/day for 5 days, then 12.5 mg/day for 16 days. Blood samples were taken daily before feeding. Insulin vs. time area under curve of Groups A and B were compared using a Student's unpaired t test. Results Horses demonstrated insulin peaks within 2 h of feeding of 577 ± 108.3 pmol/l at 09.30 h and 342.4 ± 75.7 pmol/l at 17.30 h, despite receiving the same meal. The nadir was between midnight and 07.30 h. Exercise had no effect on basal insulin concentrations prior to equine growth hormone administrations. The equine growth hormone injections increased serum insulin concentrations (P = 0.01) within Group A, from 44.4 ± 15.3 pmol/l initially to 320.9 ± 238.2 pmol/l by Day 12. Exogenous growth hormone caused variable hyperinsulinaemia, which was alleviated once equine growth hormone administration ceased. Conclusions Single serum samples taken prior to the morning meal provide basal insulin concentrations. Exercise did not change basal insulin concentrations. However, equine growth hormone injections increased basal insulin concentrations, which were not ameliorated by exercise. Potential relevance This therapy is not recommended to address obesity in insulin-resistant equids.

A method of extracting switching loss from a high efficiency MOSFET based half bridge converter

The measurement of losses in high efficiency / high power converters is difficult. Measuring the losses directly from the difference between the input and output power results in large errors. Calorimetric methods are usually used to bypass this issue but introduce different problems, such as, long measurement times, limited power loss measurement range and/or large set up cost. In this paper the total losses of a converter are measured directly and switching losses are exacted. The measurements can be taken with only three multimeters and a current probe and a standard bench power supply. After acquiring two or three power loss versus output current sweeps, a series of curve fitting processes are applied and the switching losses extracted.