Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models. ----- ----- Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.

Full circle : the future of sustainable fashion manufacturing in New Zealand

Many fashion businesses in New Zealand have followed a global trend towards inexpensive off shore manufacturing. The transfer of the production of garments to overseas workers has had consequences for the wellbeing of local businesses, fashion designers and garment makers. The gradual decline of fashion manufacturing also appears to have resulted in a local fashion scene where many garments look the same in style, colour, fabric, cut and fit. The excitement of the past, where the majority of fashion designers established their own individuality through the cut and shape of the garments that they produced, may have been inadvertently lost in an effort to take advantage of cost savings achieved through mass production and manufacturing methods which are now largely unavailable in New Zealand. Consequently, a sustainable local fashion and manufacturing industry, with design integrity, seems further out of reach. This paper is focussed upon the thesis that the design and manufacture of a fashion garment, bearing in mind certain economic and practical restrictions at its inception, can contribute to a more sustainable fashion manufacturing industry in New Zealand.

Asset renewal decision modelling with application to the water utility industry

Reliable infrastructure assets impact significantly on quality of life and provide a stable foundation for economic growth and competitiveness. Decisions about the way assets are managed are of utmost importance in achieving this. Timely renewal of infrastructure assets supports reliability and maximum utilisation of infrastructure and enables business and community to grow and prosper. This research initially examined a framework for asset management decisions and then focused on asset renewal optimisation and renewal engineering optimisation in depth. This study had four primary objectives. The first was to develop a new Asset Management Decision Framework (AMDF) for identifying and classifying asset management decisions. The AMDF was developed by applying multi-criteria decision theory, classical management theory and life cycle management. The AMDF is an original and innovative contribution to asset management in that: · it is the first framework to provide guidance for developing asset management decision criteria based on fundamental business objectives; · it is the first framework to provide a decision context identification and analysis process for asset management decisions; and · it is the only comprehensive listing of asset management decision types developed from first principles. The second objective of this research was to develop a novel multi-attribute Asset Renewal Decision Model (ARDM) that takes account of financial, customer service, health and safety, environmental and socio-economic objectives. The unique feature of this ARDM is that it is the only model to optimise timing of asset renewal with respect to fundamental business objectives. The third objective of this research was to develop a novel Renewal Engineering Decision Model (REDM) that uses multiple criteria to determine the optimal timing for renewal engineering. The unique features of this model are that: · it is a novel extension to existing real options valuation models in that it uses overall utility rather than present value of cash flows to model engineering value; and · it is the only REDM that optimises timing of renewal engineering with respect to fundamental business objectives; The final objective was to develop and validate an Asset Renewal Engineering Philosophy (AREP) consisting of three principles of asset renewal engineering. The principles were validated using a novel application of real options theory. The AREP is the only renewal engineering philosophy in existence. The original contributions of this research are expected to enrich the body of knowledge in asset management through effectively addressing the need for an asset management decision framework, asset renewal and renewal engineering optimisation based on fundamental business objectives and a novel renewal engineering philosophy.

Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Pedometry methods for assessing free-living youth

The purpose of this review is to integrate and summarize specific measurement topics (instrument and metric choice, validity, reliability, how many and what types of days, reactivity, and data treatment) appropriate to the study of youth physical activity. Research quality pedometers are necessary to aid interpretation of steps per day collected in a range of young populations under a variety of circumstances. Steps per day is the most appropriate metric choice, but steps per minute can be used to interpret time-in-intensity in specifically delimited time periods (e.g., physical education class). Reported intraclass correlations (ICC) have ranged from .65 over 2 days (although higher values also have been reported for 2 days) to .87 over 8 days (although higher values have been reported for fewer days). Reported ICCs are lower on weekend days (.59) versus weekdays (.75) and lower over vacation days (.69) versus school days (.74). There is no objective evidence of reactivity at this time. Data treatment includes (a) identifying and addressing missing values, (b) identifying outliers and reducing data appropriately if necessary, and (c) transforming the data as required in preparation for inferential analysis. As more pedometry studies in young populations are published, these preliminary methodological recommendations should be modified and refined.

Linking the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the Compendium of Physical Activities : methods and rationale

Background: The 2003 Bureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey (ATUS) contains 438 distinct primary activity variables that can be analyzed with regard to how time is spent by Americans. The Compendium of Physical Activities is used to code physical activities derived from various surveys, logs, diaries, etc to facilitate comparison of coded intensity levels across studies. ------ ----- Methods: This paper describes the methods, challenges, and rationale for linking Compendium estimates of physical activity intensity (METs, metabolic equivalents) with all activities reported in the 2003 ATUS. ----- ----- Results: The assigned ATUS intensity levels are not intended to compute the energy costs of physical activity in individuals. Instead, they are intended to be used to identify time spent in activities broadly classified by type and intensity. This function will complement public health surveillance systems and aid in policy and health-promotion activities. For example, at least one of the future projects of this process is the descriptive epidemiology of time spent in common physical activity intensity categories. ----- ----- Conclusions: The process of metabolic coding of the ATUS by linking it with the Compendium of Physical Activities can make important contributions to our understanding of Americans’ time spent in health-related physical activity.

Strength improvement methods for back to back Litesteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills (OATM). The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using patented dual electric resistance welding and automated roll-forming technologies. OATM is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in residential construction. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity. However, the research project conducted on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs showed that the detrimental effects of lateral distortional buckling in single LSB members appear to remain with back to back built-up LSB members. The ultimate moment capacity of back to back LSB member is also affected by lateral distortional buckling failure. Therefore an investigation was conducted with an aim to develop suitable strength improvement methods, which are likely to mitigate lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improve the flexural strengths of back to back LSB members. This paper presents the details of this investigation, the results and recommendations for the most suitable and cost-effective method, which significantly improves the moment capacities of back to back LSB members.

Sustaining the ecological, social and economic values of the forests of Southern Tasmania

This thesis articulates a methodology that can be applied to the analysis and design of underlying organisational structures and processes that will consistently and effectively address ‘wicked problems’ (the most difficult class of problems that we can conceptualise: problems which consist of ‘clusters’ of problems; problems within these clusters cannot be solved in isolation from one another, and include sociopolitical and moral-spiritual issues (Rittel and Webber 1973)) in forestry. This transdisciplinary methodology has been developed from the perspective of institutional economics synthesised with perspectives from ecological economics and system dynamics. The institutionalist policymaking framework provides an approach for the explicit development of holistic policy. An illustrative application of this framework has been applied to the wicked problem of forestry in southern Tasmania as an example of the applicability of the approach in the Australian context. To date all attempts to seek solutions to that prevailing wicked problem set have relied on non-reflexive, partial and highly reductionist thinking. A formal assessment of prevailing governance and process arrangements applying to that particular forestry industry has been undertaken using the social fabric matrix. This methodology lies at the heart of the institutionalist policymaking framework, and allows for the systematic exploration of elaborately complex causal links and relationships, such as are present in southern Tasmania. Some possible attributes of an alternative approach to forest management that sustains ecological, social and economic values of forests have been articulated as indicative of the alternative policy and management outcomes that real-world application of this transdisciplinary, discursive and reflexive framework may crystallise. Substantive and lasting solutions to wicked problems need to be formed endogenously, that is, from within the system. The institutionalist policymaking framework is a vehicle through which this endogenous creation of solutions to wicked problems may be realised.

What are the real costs of major trauma?

Background This economic evaluation reports the results of a detailed study of the cost of major trauma treated at Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Australia. Methods A bottom-up approach was used to collect and aggregate the direct and indirect costs generated by a sample of 30 inpatients treated for major trauma at PAH in 2004. Major trauma was defined as an admission for Multiple Significant Trauma with an Injury Severity Score >15. Direct and indirect costs were amalgamated from three sources, (1) PAH inpatient costs, (2) Medicare Australia, and (3) a survey instrument. Inpatient costs included the initial episode of inpatient care including clinical and outpatient services and any subsequent representations for ongoing-related medical treatment. Medicare Australia provided an itemized list of pharmaceutical and ambulatory goods and services. The survey instrument collected out-of-pocket expenses and opportunity cost of employment forgone. Inpatient data obtained from a publically funded trauma registry were used to control for any potential bias in our sample. Costs are reported in Australian dollars for 2004 and 2008. Results The average direct and indirect costs of major trauma incurred up to 1-year postdischarge were estimated to be A$78,577 and A$24,273, respectively. The aggregate costs, for the State of Queensland, were estimated to range from A$86.1 million to $106.4 million in 2004 and from A$135 million to A$166.4 million in 2008. Conclusion These results demonstrate that (1) the costs of major trauma are significantly higher than previously reported estimates and (2) the cost of readmissions increased inpatient costs by 38.1%.

The high road or the low road? Alternatives for Australia's future

The OECD suggests that countries now have a choice. They can focus on development based on either:  competition via investment in technology and innovation - which is important in high knowledge industries and high innovation economies, or  competition via exchange rates and wages - which is important in industries producing standardised, lower-tech goods and services. The first route will maximise higher-skilled, higher-paid employment growth and living standards. Given the lack of control over the exchange rate, the second route requires competition based on wages. It is essential to understand that markets themselves won’t shift a country from one path to the other. These conclusions arise from the OECD’s recognition that technical progress - the creation of new products or the adoption of more efficient methods of production - is the main source of economic growth and enhanced quality of life. Technological change is, the OECD suggests, ...also the engine for job creation as higher wages and profits resulting from technology-induced productivity gains and lower prices lead to increased demand for new products from existing as well as new industries (1997: 4).Further, Competitiveness in high-technology industries is mainly driven by technology factors and much less by wage and exchange rate movements, while the reverse is true in low-technology industries (OECD 1996e: 12). The OECD has shown that sound macroeconomic conditions, such as the low inflation and reduced public sector debt visible in almost all member countries in the 1990s, are not enough to deal with high levels of unemployment and the need to increase levels of income: If economic performance is to improve, additional structural reform, which can increase innovation and the diffusion of technologies within and among national economies, seems necessary (OECD 1997: 4 Emphasis added).

Physicality in the Information Age : a normative perspective on the patent eligibility of non-physical methods

There has been much conjecture of late as to whether the patentable subject matter standard contains a physicality requirement. The issue came to a head when the Federal Circuit introduced the machine-or-transformation test in In re Bilski and declared it to be the sole test for determining subject matter eligibility. Many commentators criticized the test, arguing that it is inconsistent with Supreme Court precedent and the need for the patent system to respond appropriately to all new and useful innovation in whatever form it arises. Those criticisms were vindicated when, on appeal, the Supreme Court in Bilski v. Kappos dispensed with any suggestion that the patentable subject matter test involves a physicality requirement. In this article, the issue is addressed from a normative perspective: it asks whether the patentable subject matter test should contain a physicality requirement. The conclusion reached is that it should not, because such a limitation is not an appropriate means of encouraging much of the valuable innovation we are likely to witness during the Information Age. It is contended that it is not only traditionally-recognized mechanical, chemical and industrial manufacturing processes that are patent eligible, but that patent eligibility extends to include non-machine implemented and non-physical methods that do not have any connection with a physical device and do not cause a physical transformation of matter. Concerns raised that there is a trend of overreaching commoditization or propertization, where the boundaries of patent law have been expanded too far, are unfounded since the strictures of novelty, nonobviousness and sufficiency of description will exclude undeserving subject matter from patentability. The argument made is that introducing a physicality requirement will have unintended adverse effects in various fields of technology, particularly those emerging technologies that are likely to have a profound social effect in the future.

Panel studies of new venture creation: a methods-focused review and suggestions for future research

Longitudinal panel studies of large, random samples of business start-ups captured at the pre-operational stage allow researchers to address core issues for entrepreneurship research, namely, the processes of creation of new business ventures as well as their antecedents and outcomes. Here, we perform a methods-orientated review of all 83 journal articles that have used this type of data set, our purpose being to assist users of current data sets as well as designers of new projects in making the best use of this innovative research approach. Our review reveals a number of methods issues that are largely particular to this type of research. We conclude that amidst exemplary contributions, much of the reviewed research has not adequately managed these methods challenges, nor has it made use of the full potential of this new research approach. Specifically, we identify and suggest remedies for context-specific and interrelated methods challenges relating to sample definition, choice of level of analysis, operationalization and conceptualization, use of longitudinal data and dealing with various types of problematic heterogeneity. In addition, we note that future research can make further strides towards full utilization of the advantages of the research approach through better matching (from either direction) between theories and the phenomena captured in the data, and by addressing some under-explored research questions for which the approach may be particularly fruitful.