Analysis of climate change scenarios based on modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a Danubian copepod species

Climate change is one of the most crucial ecological problems of our age with great influence. Seasonal dynamics of aquatic communities are — among others — regulated by the climate, especially by temperature. In this case study we attempted the simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a copepod species, Cyclops vicinus, which ranks among the zooplankton community, based on a quantitative database containing ten years of data from the Danube’s Göd area. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of Cyclops vicinus by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population. The model was adapted to eight years of daily temperature data observed between 1981 and 1994 and was tested successfully with the additional data of two further years. The model was run with the data series of climate change scenarios specified for the period around 2070- 2100. On the other hand we looked for the geographically analogous areas with the Göd region which are mostly similar to the future climate of the Göd area. By means of the above-mentioned points we can get a view how the climate of the region will change by the end of the 21st century, and the way the seasonal dynamics of a chosen planktonic crustacean species may follow this change. According to our results the area of Göd will be similar to the northern region of Greece. The maximum abundance of the examined species occurs a month to one and a half months earlier, moreover larger variances are expected between years in respect of the abundance. The deviations are expected in the direction of smaller or significantly larger abundance not observed earlier.

Simulation modeling of phytoplankton dynamics in a large eutrophic river, Hungary – Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM)

Ecological models have often been used in order to answer questions that are in the limelight of recent researches such as the possible effects of climate change. The methodology of tactical models is a very useful tool comparison to those complex models requiring relatively large set of input parameters. In this study, a theoretical strategic model (TEGM ) was adapted to the field data on the basis of a 24-year long monitoring database of phytoplankton in the Danube River at the station of G¨od, Hungary (at 1669 river kilometer – hereafter referred to as “rkm”). The Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM) is able to describe the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass (mg L−1) based on daily temperature, but takes the availability of light into consideration as well. In order to improve fitting, the 24-year long database was split in two parts in accordance with environmental sustainability. The period of 1979–1990 has a higher level of nutrient excess compared with that of the 1991–2002. The authors assume that, in the above-mentioned periods, phytoplankton responded to temperature in two different ways, thus two submodels were developed, DPGM-sA and DPGMsB. Observed and simulated data correlated quite well. Findings suggest that linear temperature rise brings drastic change to phytoplankton only in case of high nutrient load and it is mostly realized through the increase of yearly total biomass.

Comparison of different space indexing methods for ecological evaluation of urban openspaces

Nowadays we meet many different evaluation methods regarding the ecological performance of green surfaces and parks. All these methods are extremely valuable in determining how well a green surface performs from ecological aspect and to what extent the environment were damaged if these sites would be built or would be developed any other way causing reduction of green surfaces. The goal of the article is to clarify the differences between two evaluation methods (GSI – Green Space Intensity, BARC – Biological Activity Rate Calculation) suitable for urban green infrastructure analysis and to see if any significant difference can be observed evaluating the same site by these methods. Our research sites are in Budapest and their sizes vary between 2,5-8 acres. The most important aspects of site analysis are the following: size and boundaries of the park, existence or lack of water features, the characteristics of their surfaces and the complexity of vegetation. We summarize the data of the site analysis in tables, make a summarizing diagram for visual representation and draw conclusions from the results. As a final step, we evaluate how these two evaluation systems relate to urban open space developments.

Pavement performance prediction using adaptive logic networks

Pavement performance is one of the most important components of the pavement management system. Prediction of the future performance of a pavement section is important in programming maintenance and rehabilitation needs. Models for predicting pavement performance have been developed on the basis of traffic and age. The purpose of this research is to extend the use of a relatively new approach to performance prediction in pavement performance modeling using adaptive logic networks (ALN). Adaptive logic networks have recently emerged as an effective alternative to artificial neural networks for machine learning tasks. ^ The ALN predictive methodology is applicable to a wide variety of contexts including prediction of roughness based indices, composite rating indices and/or individual pavement distresses. The ALN program requires key information about a pavement section, including the current distress indexes, pavement age, climate region, traffic and other variables to predict yearly performance values into the future. ^ This research investigates the effect of different learning rates of the ALN in pavement performance modeling. It can be used at both the network and project level for predicting the long term performance of a road network. Results indicate that the ALN approach is well suited for pavement performance prediction modeling and shows a significant improvement over the results obtained from other artificial intelligence approaches. ^

Conservation implications of the reproductive biology of the endangered vine Ipomoea microdactyla Griseb. (Convolvulaceae)

A plant's reproductive biology exerts a significant influence on both population persistence within changing environments and successful establishment of new populations. However, the interaction between extrinsic (i.e. ecological) and intrinsic (i.e. genetic) factors also is an important driver of demographic performance for plant populations. It is light of this that I performed a multidisciplinary investigation of the breeding system, seed and seedling establishment dynamics, and population genetic structure of the endangered Caribbean vine Ipomoea microdactyla Griseb. (Convolvulaceae). The results from the breeding system study show individuals from Florida, USA and Andros Island, Bahamas to be self-incompatible. Plants from the two regions are cross-compatible but there is evidence for outbreeding depression in their progeny. Significant regional differences were found in floral traits and progeny traits that suggests incipient speciation for the Florida populations. The results from the seed and seedling establishment dynamics experiment demonstrate that the restoration of small populations in Florida via seed and seedling augmentation is a successful strategy. The demographic performance of the outplanted individuals was driven significantly by ecological factors (e.g. herbivory) rather than by genetic factors which emphasizes that the ecological context is very important for successful restoration attempts. The results from the population genetic study using an analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA) reveal significant differences in genetic variation among individuals from Florida, Andros, and Cuba. A Bayesian analysis of population genetic structuring coincided with the previous AMOVA results among the three regions. The Mantel test indicated significant 'isolation by distance' for these regional populations implying restricted gene flow over relatively short distances. Overall, the Florida populations had the lowest measures of genetic diversity which is most likely due to the effects of both colonization founder events and habitat fragmentation. The results of my study highlight the value of performing multidisciplinary studies in relation to species conservation as knowledge of both extrinsic and intrinsic factors can best guide decisions for species preservation.

Physiological performance measures and tolerance limits of estuarine indicator species in south Florida

Current water management practices in South Florida have negatively impacted many species inhabiting Florida Bay. Variable and high salinity has been identified as a key stressor in these estuaries. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) includes water redistribution projects that will restore natural freshwater flows to northeastern Florida Bay. My studies focused on the following central theme and hypotheses: Biological performance measures (i.e., growth, reproduction, survival), behavior (i.e., habitat preference and locomotor behavior) and diversity of estuarine fish will be controlled by changes in salinity and water quality that will occur as a result of the restoration of freshwater flow to the bay. A series of acute and subchronic physiological toxicity studies were conducted to determine the effects of salinity changes on the life stages (embryo/larval, juvenile, adult) and fecundity of four native estuarine fish (Cyprinodon variegatus, Floridichthys carpio, Poecilia latipinna, and Gambusia holbrooki). Fish were exposed to a range of salinity concentrations (freshwater to hypersaline) based on salinity profiles in the study areas. Growth (length, weight) and survival were measured. Salinity trials included both rapid and gradual change events. Results show negative effects of acute, abrupt salinity changes on fish survival, development and reproductive success as a result of salinity stress. Other studies targeted reproduction and critical embryo-larval/neonate development as key areas for detecting long-term population effects of salinity change in Florida Bay. Adults of C. variegates and P. latipinna were also examined for behavioral responses to pulsed salinity changes. These responses include changes in swimming performance, locomotor behavior and zone preference. Finally, an ecological risk assessment was conducted for adverse salinity conditions in northeastern Florida Bay. Using the U.S. EPA's framework, the risk to estuarine fish species diversity was assessed against regional salinity profiles from a 17-year database. Based on the risk assessment, target salinity profiles for these areas are recommended for managers.^

The interactive effects of predators, resources, and disturbance on freshwater snail populations from the Everglades

The origins of population dynamics depend on interplay between abiotic and biotic factors; the relative importance of each changing across space and time. Predation is a central feature of ecological communities that removes individuals (consumption) and alters prey traits (non-consumptive). Resource quality mitigates non-consumptive predator effects by stimulating growth and reproduction. Disturbance resets predator-prey interactions by removing both. I integrate experiments, time-series analysis, and performance trials to examine the relative importance of these on the population dynamics of a snail species by studying a variety of their traits. A review of ninety-three published articles revealed that snail abundance was much less in the Everglades and similar ecosystems compared to all other freshwater ecosystems considered. Separating consumptive from non-consumptive (cues) predator effects at different phosphorous levels with an experiment determined that phosphorous stimulated, but predator cues inhibited snail growth (34% vs. 23%), activity (38% vs. 53%), and reproductive effort (99% vs. 90%) compared to controls. Cues induced taller shells and smaller openings and moved to refugia where they reduced periphyton by 8%. Consumptive predator effects were minor in comparison. In a reciprocal transplant cage experiment along a predator cue and phosphorous gradient created by a canal, snails grew 10% faster and produced 37% more eggs far from the canal (fewer cues) when fed phosphorous-enriched periphyton from near the canal. Time-series analysis at four sites and predator performance trials reveal that phosphorous-enriched regions support larger snail populations, seasonal drying removes snails at all sites, crayfish negatively affect populations in enriched regions, and molluscivorous fish consume snails in the wet season. Combining these studies reveals interplay between resources, predators, and seasonality that limit snail populations in the Everglades and lead to their low abundance compared to other freshwater ecosystems. Resource quality is emerging as the critical factor because improving resources profoundly improved growth and reproduction; seasonal drying and predation become important at times and places. This work contributes to the general understanding in ecology of the relative importance of different factors that structure populations and provides evidence that bolsters monitoring efforts to assess the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan that show phosphorous enrichment is a major driver of ecosystem change.

The potential role of plant oxygen and sulphide dynamics in die-off events of the tropical seagrass, Thalassia testudinum

1 Oxygen and sulphide dynamics were examined, using microelectrode techniques, in meristems and rhizomes of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum at three different sites in Florida Bay, and in the laboratory, to evaluate the potential role of internal oxygen variability and sulphide invasion in episodes of sudden die-off. The sites differed with respect to shoot density and sediment composition, with an active die-off occurring at only one of the sites. 2 Meristematic oxygen content followed similar diel patterns at all sites with high oxygen content during the day and hyposaturation relative to the water column during the night. Minimum meristematic oxygen content was recorded around sunrise and varied among sites, with values close to zero at the die-off site. 3 Gaseous sulphide was detected within the sediment at all sites but at different concentrations among sites and within the die-off site. Spontaneous invasion of sulphide into Thalassia rhizomes was recorded at low internal oxygen partial pressure during darkness at the die-off site. 4 A laboratory experiment showed that the internal oxygen dynamics depended on light availability, and hence plant photosynthesis, and on the oxygen content of the water column controlling passive oxygen diffusion from water column to leaves and belowground tissues in the dark. 5 Sulphide invasion only occurred at low internal oxygen content, and the rate of invasion was highly dependent on the oxygen supply to roots and rhizomes. Sulphide was slowly depleted from the tissues when high oxygen partial pressures were re-established through leaf photosynthesis. Coexistence of sulphide and oxygen in the tissues and the slow rate of sulphide depletion suggest that sulphide reoxidation is not biologically mediated within the tissues of Thalassia. 6 Our results support the hypothesis that internal oxygen stress, caused by low water column oxygen content or poor plant performance governed by other environmental factors, allows invasion of sulphide and that the internal plant oxygen and sulphide dynamics potentially are key factors in the episodes of sudden die-off in beds of Thalassia testudinum . Root anoxia followed by sulphide invasion may be a more general mechanism determining the growth and survival of other rooted plants in sulphate-rich aquatic environments.

Ecological effects of low-level phosphorus additions on two plant communities in a neotropical freshwater wetland ecosystem

We conducted a low-level phosphorus (P) enrichment study in two oligotrophic freshwater wetland communities (wet prairies [WP] and sawgrass marsh [SAW]) of the neotropical Florida Everglades. The experiment included three P addition levels (0, 3.33, and 33.3 mg P m−2 month−1), added over 2 years, and used in situ mesocosms located in northeastern Everglades National Park, Fla., USA. The calcareous periphyton mat in both communities degraded quickly and was replaced by green algae. In the WP community, we observed significant increases in net aboveground primary production (NAPP) and belowground biomass. Aboveground live standing crop (ALSC) did not show a treatment effect, though, because stem turnover rates of Eleocharis spp., the dominant emergent macrophyte in this community, increased significantly. Eleocharis spp. leaf tissue P content decreased with P additions, causing higher C:P and N:P ratios in enriched versus unenriched plots. In the SAW community, NAPP, ALSC, and belowground biomass all increased significantly in response to P additions. Cladium jamaicense leaf turnover rates and tissue nutrient content did not show treatment effects. The two oligotrophic communities responded differentially to P enrichment. Periphyton which was more abundant in the WP community, appeared to act as a P buffer that delayed the response of other ecosystem components until after the periphyton mat had disappeared. Periphyton played a smaller role in controlling ecosystem dynamics and community structure in the SAW community. Our data suggested a reduced reliance on internal stores of P by emergent macrophytes in the WP that were exposed to P enrichment. Eleocharis spp. rapidly recycled P through more rapid aboveground turnover. In contrast, C. jamaicense stored added P by initially investing in belowground biomass, then shifting growth allocation to aboveground tissue without increasing leaf turnover rates. Our results suggest that calcareous wetland systems throughout the Caribbean, and oligotrophic ecosystems in general, respond rapidly to low-level additions of their limiting nutrient.

A conceptual model of ecological interactions in the mangrove estuaries of the Florida Everglades

A brackish water ecotone of coastal bays and lakes, mangrove forests, salt marshes, tidal creeks, and upland hammocks separates Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico from the freshwater Everglades. The Everglades mangrove estuaries are characterized by salinity gradients that vary spatially with topography and vary seasonally and inter-annually with rainfall, tide, and freshwater flow from the Everglades. Because of their location at the lower end of the Everglades drainage basin, Everglades mangrove estuaries have been affected by upstream water management practices that have altered the freshwater heads and flows and that affect salinity gradients. Additionally, interannual variation in precipitation patterns, particularly those caused to El Nin˜o events, control freshwater inputs and salinity dynamics in these estuaries. Two major external drivers on this system are water management activities and global climate change. These drivers lead to two major ecosystem stressors: reduced freshwater flow volume and duration, and sea-level rise. Major ecological attributes include mangrove forest production, soil accretion, and resilience; coastal lake submerged aquatic vegetation; resident mangrove fish populations; wood stork (Mycteria americana) and roseate spoonbill (Platelea ajaja) nesting colonies; and estuarine crocodilian populations. Causal linkages between stressors and attributes include coastal transgression, hydroperiods, salinity gradients, and the ‘‘white zone’’ freshwater/estuarine interface. The functional estuary and its ecological attributes, as influenced by sea level and freshwater flow, must be viewed as spatially dynamic, with a possible near-term balancing of transgression but ultimately a long-term continuation of inland movement. Regardless of the spatio-temporal timing of this transgression, a salinity gradient supportive of ecologically functional Everglades mangrove estuaries will be required to maintain the integrity of the South Florida ecosystem.

Ecological indicators for system-wide assessment of the greater everglades ecosystem restoration program

Developing scientifically credible tools for measuring the success of ecological restoration projects is a difficult and a non-trivial task. Yet, reliable measures of the general health and ecological integrity of ecosystems are critical for assessing the success of restoration programs. The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force (Task Force), which helps coordinate a multi-billion dollar multi-organizational effort between federal, state, local and tribal governments to restore the Florida Everglades, is using a small set of system-wide ecological indicators to assess the restoration efforts. A team of scientists and managers identified eleven ecological indicators from a field of several hundred through a selection process using 12 criteria to determine their applicability as part of a system-wide suite. The 12 criteria are: (1) is the indicator relevant to the ecosystem? (2) Does it respond to variability at a scale that makes it applicable to the entire system? (3) Is the indicator feasible to implement and is it measureable? (4) Is the indicator sensitive to system drivers and is it predictable? (5) Is the indicator interpretable in a common language? (6) Are there situations where an optimistic trend with regard to an indicator might suggest a pessimistic restoration trend? (7) Are there situations where a pessimistic trend with regard to an indicator may be unrelated to restoration activities? (8) Is the indicator scientifically defensible? (9) Can clear, measureable targets be established for the indicator to allow for assessments of success? (10) Does the indicator have specificity to be able to result in corrective action? (11) What level of ecosystem process or structure does the indicator address? (12) Does the indicator provide early warning signs of ecological change? In addition, a two page stoplight report card was developed to assist in communicating the complex science inherent in ecological indicators in a common language for resource managers, policy makers and the public. The report card employs a universally understood stoplight symbol that uses green to indicate that targets are being met, yellow to indicate that targets have not been met and corrective action may be needed and red to represent that targets are far from being met and corrective action is required. This paper presents the scientific process and the results of the development and selection of the criteria, the indicators and the stoplight report card format and content. The detailed process and results for the individual indicators are presented in companion papers in this special issue of Ecological Indicators.

Integrated Ecological Modeling and Decision Analysis Within the Everglades Landscape

Planning for complex ecosystem restoration projects involves integrating ecological modeling with analysis of performance trade-offs among restoration alternatives. The authors used the Everglades Landscape Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to explore the effect of simulated ecosystem performance, risk preferences, and criteria weights on the ranking of three alternatives to restoring overland sheet flow in the Everglades. The ecological model outputs included both hydrologic and water quality criteria. Results were scored in the decision analysis framework, highlighting the trade-offs between hydrologic restoration and water quality constraints. Given equal weighting of performance measures, the alternative with more homogenous sheet flow was preferred over other alternatives, despite evidence of some localized eutrophication risk.

Control of MNC environmental performance and the challenges of subsidiary network dimensions

The trend of green consumerism and increased standardization of environmental regulations has driven multinational corporations (MNCs) to seek standardization of environmental practices or at least seek to be associated with such behavior. In fact, many firms are seeking to free ride on this global green movement, without having the actual ecological footprint to substantiate their environmental claims. While scholars have articulated the benefits from such optimization of uniform global green operations, the challenges for MNCs to control and implement such operations are understudied. For firms to translate environmental commitment to actual performance, the obstacles are substantial, particularly for the MNC. This is attributed to headquarters' (HQ) control challenges (1) in managing core elements of the corporate environmental management (CEM) process and specifically matching verbal commitment and policy with ecological performance and by (2) the fact that the MNC operates in multiple markets and the HQ is required to implement policy across complex subsidiary networks consisting of diverse and distant units. Drawing from the literature on HQ challenges of MNC management and control, this study examines (1) how core components of the CEM process impact optimization of global environmental performance (GEP) and then uses network theory to examine how (2) a subsidiary network's dimensions can present challenges to the implementation of green management policies. It presents a framework for CEM which includes (1) MNCs' Verbal environmental commitment, (2) green policy Management which guides standards for operations, (3) actual environmental Performance reflected in a firm's ecological footprint and (4) corporate environmental Reputation (VMPR). Then it explains how an MNC's key subsidiary network dimensions (density, diversity, and dispersion) create challenges that hinder the relationship between green policy management and actual environmental performance. It combines content analysis, multiple regression, and post-hoc hierarchal cluster analysis to study US manufacturing MNCs. The findings support a positive significant effect of verbal environmental commitment and green policy management on actual global environmental performance and environmental reputation, as well as a direct impact of verbal environmental commitment on green policy management. Unexpectedly, network dimensions were not found to moderate the relationship between green management policy and GEP.

Ecosystem structure, nutrient dynamics, and hydrologic relationships in tree islands of the southern Everglades, Florida, USA

Tree islands are an important structural component of many graminoid-dominated wetlands because they increase ecological complexity in the landscape. Tree island area has been drastically reduced with hydrologic modifications within the Everglades ecosystem, yet still little is known about the ecosystem ecology of Everglades tree islands. As part of an ongoing study to investigate the effects of hydrologic restoration on short hydroperiod marshes of the southern Everglades, we report an ecosystem characterization of seasonally flooded tree islands relative to locations described by variation in freshwater flow (i.e. locally enhanced freshwater flow by levee removal). We quantified: (1) forest structure, litterfall production, nutrient utilization, soil dynamics, and hydrologic properties of six tree islands and (2) soil and surface water physico-chemical properties of adjacent marshes. Tree islands efficiently utilized both phosphorus and nitrogen, but indices of nutrient-use efficiency indicated stronger P than N limitation. Tree islands were distinct in structure and biogeochemical properties from the surrounding marsh, maintaining higher organically bound P and N, but lower inorganic N. Annual variation resulting in increased hydroperiod and lower wet season water levels not only increased nitrogen use by tree species and decreased N:P values of the dominant plant species (Chrysobalanus icaco), but also increased soil pH and decreased soil temperature. When compared with other forested wetlands, these Everglades tree islands were among the most nutrient efficient, likely a function of nutrient immobilization in soils and the calcium carbonate bedrock. Tree islands of our study area are defined by: (1) unique biogeochemical properties when compared with adjacent short hydroperiod marshes and other forested wetlands and (2) an intricate relationship with marsh hydrology. As such, they may play an important and disproportionate role in nutrient and carbon cycling in Everglades wetlands. With the loss of tree islands that has occurred with the degradation of the Everglades system, these landscape processes may have been altered. With this baseline dataset, we have established a long-term ecosystem-scale experiment to follow the ecosystem trajectory of seasonally flooded tree islands in response to hydrologic restoration of the southern Everglades.

Relationships Between Hydrology and Soils Describe Vegetation Patterns in Seasonally Flooded Tree Islands of the Southern Everglades, Florida

Tree island ecosystems are important and distinct features of Florida Everglades wetlands. We described the inter-relationships among abiotic factors describing seasonally flooded tree islands and characterized plant–soil relationships in tree islands occurring in a relatively unimpacted area of the Everglades. We used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to reduce our multi-factor dataset, quantified forest structure and vegetation nutrient dynamics, and related these vegetation parameters to PCA summary variables using linear regression analyses. We found that, of the 21 abiotic parameters used to characterize the ecosystem structure of seasonally flooded tree islands, 13 parameters were significantly correlated with four principal components, and they described 78% of the variance among the study islands. Most variation was described by factors related to soil oxidation and hydrology, exemplifying the sensitivity of tree island structure to hydrologic conditions. PCA summary variables describing tree island structure were related to variability in Chrysobalanus icaco (L.) canopy cover, Ilex cassine (L.) and Salix caroliniana (Michx.) canopy cover, Myrica cerifera (L.) plot frequency, litter turnover, % phosphorus resorption of co-dominant species, and nitrogen nutrient-use efficiency. This study supported findings that vegetation characteristics can be sensitive indicators of variability in tree island ecosystem structure. This study produced valuable, information which was used to recommend ecological targets (i.e. restoration performance measures) for seasonally flooded tree islands in more impacted regions of the Everglades landscape.