Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Operational modal monitoring of ancient structures using wireless technology

Operational Modal Analysis is currently applied in structural dynamic monitoring studies using conventional wired based sensors and data acquisition platforms. This approach, however, becomes inadequate in cases where the tests are performed in ancient structures with esthetic concerns or in others, where the use of wires greatly impacts the monitoring system cost and creates difficulties in the maintenance and deployment of data acquisition platforms. In these cases, the use of sensor platforms based on wireless and MEMS would clearly benefit these applications. This work presents a first attempt to apply this wireless technology to the structural monitoring of historical masonry constructions in the context of operational modal analysis. Commercial WSN platforms were used to study one laboratory specimen and one of the structural elements of a XV century building in Portugal. Results showed that in comparison to the conventional wired sensors, wireless platforms have poor performance in respect to the acceleration time series recorded and the detection of modal shapes. However, for frequency detection issues, reliable results were obtained, especially when random excitation was used as noise source.

Flexible and dynamic replication control for interdependent distributed real-time embedded systems

Replication is a proven concept for increasing the availability of distributed systems. However, actively replicating every software component in distributed embedded systems may not be a feasible approach. Not only the available resources are often limited, but also the imposed overhead could significantly degrade the system’s performance. This paper proposes heuristics to dynamically determine which components to replicate based on their significance to the system as a whole, its consequent number of passive replicas, and where to place those replicas in the network. The activation of passive replicas is coordinated through a fast convergence protocol that reduces the complexity of the needed interactions among nodes until a new collective global service solution is determined.

Optimising and adapting the QoS of a dynamic set of inter-dependent tasks

Due to the growing complexity and adaptability requirements of real-time systems, which often exhibit unrestricted Quality of Service (QoS) inter-dependencies among supported services and user-imposed quality constraints, it is increasingly difficult to optimise the level of service of a dynamic task set within an useful and bounded time. This is even more difficult when intending to benefit from the full potential of an open distributed cooperating environment, where service characteristics are not known beforehand and tasks may be inter-dependent. This paper focuses on optimising a dynamic local set of inter-dependent tasks that can be executed at varying levels of QoS to achieve an efficient resource usage that is constantly adapted to the specific constraints of devices and users, nature of executing tasks and dynamically changing system conditions. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed anytime algorithms are able to quickly find a good initial solution and effectively optimise the rate at which the quality of the current solution improves as the algorithms are given more time to run, with a minimum overhead when compared against their traditional versions.

Capacity sharing and stealing in dynamic server-based real-time systems

This paper proposes a dynamic scheduler that supports the coexistence of guaranteed and non-guaranteed bandwidth servers to efficiently handle soft-tasks’ overloads by making additional capacity available from two sources: (i) residual capacity allocated but unused when jobs complete in less than their budgeted execution time; (ii) stealing capacity from inactive non-isolated servers used to schedule best-effort jobs. The effectiveness of the proposed approach in reducing the mean tardiness of periodic jobs is demonstrated through extensive simulations. The achieved results become even more significant when tasks’ computation times have a large variance.

Real-time tracking and reporting of dynamic events in hierarchical wireless sensor networks

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are highly distributed systems in which resource allocation (bandwidth, memory) must be performed efficiently to provide a minimum acceptable Quality of Service (QoS) to the regions where critical events occur. In fact, if resources are statically assigned independently from the location and instant of the events, these resources will definitely be misused. In other words, it is more efficient to dynamically grant more resources to sensor nodes affected by critical events, thus providing better network resource management and reducing endto- end delays of event notification and tracking. In this paper, we discuss the use of a WSN management architecture based on the active network management paradigm to provide the real-time tracking and reporting of dynamic events while ensuring efficient resource utilization. The active network management paradigm allows packets to transport not only data, but also program scripts that will be executed in the nodes to dynamically modify the operation of the network. This presumes the use of a runtime execution environment (middleware) in each node to interpret the script. We consider hierarchical (e.g. cluster-tree, two-tiered architecture) WSN topologies since they have been used to improve the timing performance of WSNs as they support deterministic medium access control protocols.

Dynamic QoS adaptation of inter- dependent task sets in cooperative embedded systems

Due to the growing complexity and dynamism of many embedded application domains (including consumer electronics, robotics, automotive and telecommunications), it is increasingly difficult to react to load variations and adapt the system's performance in a controlled fashion within an useful and bounded time. This is particularly noticeable when intending to benefit from the full potential of an open distributed cooperating environment, where service characteristics are not known beforehand and tasks may exhibit unrestricted QoS inter-dependencies. This paper proposes a novel anytime adaptive QoS control policy in which the online search for the best set of QoS levels is combined with each user's personal preferences on their services' adaptation behaviour. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed anytime algorithms are able to quickly find a good initial solution and effectively optimise the rate at which the quality of the current solution improves as the algorithms are given more time to run, with a minimum overhead when compared against their traditional versions.

Climatology of the Iberia coastal low-level wind jet: weather research forecasting model high-resolution results

Coastal low-level jets (CLLJ) are a low-tropospheric wind feature driven by the pressure gradient produced by a sharp contrast between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over the sea. This contrast between the cold ocean and the warm land in the summer is intensified by the impact of the coastal parallel winds on the ocean generating upwelling currents, sharpening the temperature gradient close to the coast and giving rise to strong baroclinic structures at the coast. During summertime, the Iberian Peninsula is often under the effect of the Azores High and of a thermal low pressure system inland, leading to a seasonal wind, in the west coast, called the Nortada (northerly wind). This study presents a regional climatology of the CLLJ off the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, based on a 9km resolution downscaling dataset, produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, forced by 19 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2007). The simulation results show that the jet hourly frequency of occurrence in the summer is above 30% and decreases to about 10% during spring and autumn. The monthly frequencies of occurrence can reach higher values, around 40% in summer months, and reveal large inter-annual variability in all three seasons. In the summer, at a daily base, the CLLJ is present in almost 70% of the days. The CLLJ wind direction is mostly from north-northeasterly and occurs more persistently in three areas where the interaction of the jet flow with local capes and headlands is more pronounced. The coastal jets in this area occur at heights between 300 and 400 m, and its speed has a mean around 15 m/s, reaching maximum speeds of 25 m/s.

A CMOS micro power switched-capacitor DC-DC step-up converter for indoor light energy harvesting applications

This paper presents a micro power light energy harvesting system for indoor environments. Light energy is collected by amorphous silicon photovoltaic (a-Si:H PV) cells, processed by a switched capacitor (SC) voltage doubler circuit with maximum power point tracking (MPPT), and finally stored in a large capacitor. The MPPT fractional open circuit voltage (V-OC) technique is implemented by an asynchronous state machine (ASM) that creates and dynamically adjusts the clock frequency of the step-up SC circuit, matching the input impedance of the SC circuit to the maximum power point condition of the PV cells. The ASM has a separate local power supply to make it robust against load variations. In order to reduce the area occupied by the SC circuit, while maintaining an acceptable efficiency value, the SC circuit uses MOSFET capacitors with a charge sharing scheme for the bottom plate parasitic capacitors. The circuit occupies an area of 0.31 mm(2) in a 130 nm CMOS technology. The system was designed in order to work under realistic indoor light intensities. Experimental results show that the proposed system, using PV cells with an area of 14 cm(2), is capable of starting-up from a 0 V condition, with an irradiance of only 0.32 W/m(2). After starting-up, the system requires an irradiance of only 0.18 W/m(2) (18 mu W/cm(2)) to remain operating. The ASM circuit can operate correctly using a local power supply voltage of 453 mV, dissipating only 0.085 mu W. These values are, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the lowest reported in the literature. The maximum efficiency of the SC converter is 70.3 % for an input power of 48 mu W, which is comparable with reported values from circuits operating at similar power levels.

An efficient scalable RNS architecture for large dynamic ranges

This paper proposes an efficient scalable Residue Number System (RNS) architecture supporting moduli sets with an arbitrary number of channels, allowing to achieve larger dynamic range and a higher level of parallelism. The proposed architecture allows the forward and reverse RNS conversion, by reusing the arithmetic channel units. The arithmetic operations supported at the channel level include addition, subtraction, and multiplication with accumulation capability. For the reverse conversion two algorithms are considered, one based on the Chinese Remainder Theorem and the other one on Mixed-Radix-Conversion, leading to implementations optimized for delay and required circuit area. With the proposed architecture a complete and compact RNS platform is achieved. Experimental results suggest gains of 17 % in the delay in the arithmetic operations, with an area reduction of 23 % regarding the RNS state of the art. When compared with a binary system the proposed architecture allows to perform the same computation 20 times faster alongside with only 10 % of the circuit area resources.

Design and evaluation of multi-band RF energy harvesting circuits and antennas for WSNs

Radio frequency (RF) energy harvesting is an emerging technology that will enable to drive the next generation of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) without the need of using batteries. In this paper, we present RF energy harvesting circuits specifically developed for GSM bands (900/1800) and a wearable dual-band antenna suitable for possible implementation within clothes for body worn applications. Besides, we address the development and experimental characterization of three different prototypes of a five-stage Dickson voltage multiplier (with match impedance circuit) responsible for harvesting the RF energy. Different printed circuit board (PCB) fabrication techniques to produce the prototypes result in different values of conversion efficiency. Therefore, we conclude that if the PCB fabrication is achieved by means of a rigorous control in the photo-positive method and chemical bath procedure applied to the PCB it allows for attaining better values for the conversion efficiency. All three prototypes (1, 2 and 3) can power supply the IRIS sensor node for RF received powers of -4 dBm, -6 dBm and -5 dBm, and conversion efficiencies of 20, 32 and 26%, respectively. © 2014 IEEE.

Dynamic adaptation of stability periods for service level agreements

A QoS adaptation to dynamically changing system conditions that takes into consideration the user’s constraints on the stability of service provisioning is presented. The goal is to allow the system to make QoS adaptation decisions in response to fluctuations in task traffic flow, under the control of the user. We pay special attention to the case where monitoring the stability period and resource load variation of Service Level Agreements for different types of services is used to dynamically adapt future stability periods, according to a feedback control scheme. System’s adaptation behaviour can be configured according to a desired confidence level on future resource usage. The viability of the proposed approach is validated by preliminary experiments.

Visualizing non-linear control system performance by means of multidimensional scaling

This paper addresses the use of multidimensional scaling in the evaluation of controller performance. Several nonlinear systems are analyzed based on the closed loop time response under the action of a reference step input signal. Three alternative performance indices, based on the time response, Fourier analysis, and mutual information, are tested. The numerical experiments demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology and motivate its extension for other performance measures and new classes of nonlinearities.

Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

Is multidimensional scaling suitable for mapping the input respiratory impedance in subjects and patients?

This paper presents the application of multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis to data emerging from noninvasive lung function tests, namely the input respiratory impedance. The aim is to obtain a geometrical mapping of the diseases in a 3D space representation, allowing analysis of (dis)similarities between subjects within the same pathology groups, as well as between the various groups. The adult patient groups investigated were healthy, diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diagnosed kyphoscoliosis, respectively. The children patient groups were healthy, asthma and cystic fibrosis. The results suggest that MDS can be successfully employed for mapping purposes of restrictive (kyphoscoliosis) and obstructive (COPD) pathologies. Hence, MDS tools can be further examined to define clear limits between pools of patients for clinical classification, and used as a training aid for medical traineeship.