Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Dynamics of attacker–defender dyads in Association Football : parameters influencing decision-making

Previous work on pattern-forming dynamics of team sports has investigated sub-phases of basketball and rugby union by focussing on one-versus-one (1v1) attacker-defender dyads. This body of work has identified the role of candidate control parameters, interpersonal distance and relative velocity, in predicting the outcomes of team player interactions. These two control parameters have been described as functioning in a nested relationship where relative velocity between players comes to the fore within a critical range of interpersonal distance. The critical influence of constraints on the intentionality of player behaviour has also been identified through the study of 1v1 attacker-defender dyads. This thesis draws from previous work adopting an ecological dynamics approach, which encompasses both Dynamical Systems Theory and Ecological Psychology concepts, to describe attacker-defender interactions in 1v1 dyads in association football. Twelve male youth association football players (average age 15.3 ± 0.5 yrs) performed as both attackers and defenders in 1v1 dyads in three field positions in an experimental manipulation of the proximity to goal and the role of players. Player and ball motion was tracked using TACTO 8.0 software (Fernandes & Caixinha, 2003) to produce two-dimensional (2D) trajectories of players and the ball on the ground. Significant differences were found for player-to-ball interactions depending on proximity to goal manipulations, indicating how key reference points in the environment such as the location of the goal may act as a constraint that shapes decision-making behaviour. Results also revealed that interpersonal distance and relative velocity alone were insufficient for accurately predicting the outcome of a dyad in association football. Instead, combined values of interpersonal distance, ball-to-defender distance, attacker-to-ball distance, attacker-to-ball relative velocity and relative angles were found to indicate the state of dyad outcomes.

Mission unreachable : how Jaman is shaping the future of on-line distribution

Perhaps the most innovative of all independent OLD ventures specialising in ROW content is Jaman. Founded in 2007 by IT entrepreneur Gaurav Dhillon, and based in San Mateo, California, Jaman is a quality specialist distributor of non-Hollywood films. As of late 2010, Jaman had 1.8 million registered users and attracts viewers from most countries in the world. 75% of all use is generated from outside the U.S. Jaman does very well in English speaking parts of the world, particularly current and former Commonwealth countries. The United Kingdom accounts for 29% of users, North America (U.S. and Canada) 26%, and India represents 23%. Jaman is sometimes referred to as ‘social cinema’: a website which brings together the critique and review of a cinephile website (the forums of Rue-morgue.com for cinefantastique movie fans for example) with the social interaction, community and functionality of a social media site (for example Facebook.com). Jaman could be considered a pioneer in this space; a first mover in wrapping commercial movie downloading in an interactive social experience.

Learning object dynamics for smooth tracking of moving lip contours

A new technique is proposed for learning the dynamic characteristics of a deformable object, applied in particular to the problem of lip-tracking. Experimental results are given which demonstrate that the use of dynamic models allows the system to track more robustly under adverse conditions and to correct spurious, poorly tracked frames

Advanced numerical characterization of mono-crystalline copper with defects

Based on the embedded atom method (EAM) and molecular dynamics (MD) method, the mono-crystalline copper with different defects is investigated through tension and nanoindentation simulation. The single-crystal copper nanowire with surface defects is firstly studied through tension. For validation, the tension simulations for nanowire without defect are carried out under different temperatures and strain rates. The defects on nanowires are then systematically studied in considering different defects orientation distribution. It is found that the Young’s modulus is insensitive of surface defects and centro-plane defects. However, the yield strength and yield point show a significant decrease due to the different defects. Specially, the 〖45〗^° defect in surface and in (200) plane exerts the biggest influence to the yield strength, about 34.20% and 51.45% decrease are observed, respectively. Different defects are observed to serve as a dislocation source and different necking positions of the nanowires during tension are found. During nanoindentation simulation, dislocation is found nucleating below the contact area, but no obvious dislocation is generated around the nano-cavity. Comparing with the perfect substrate during nanoindentation, the substrate with nano-cavities emerged less dislocations, it is supposed that the nano-cavity absorbed part of the indent energy, and less plastic deformation happened in the defected substrate.

Compilation of somatic mutations of the CDKN2 gene in human cancers : non-random distribution of base substitutions

The CDKN2 gene, encoding the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p16, is a tumour suppressor gene that maps to chromosome band 9p21-p22. The most common mechanism of inactivation of this gene in human cancers is through homozygous deletion; however, in a smaller proportion of tumours and tumour cell lines intragenic mutations occur. In this study we have compiled a database of over 120 published point mutations in the CDKN2 gene from a wide variety of tumour types. A further 50 deletions, insertions, and splice mutations in CDKN2 have also been compiled. Furthermore, we have standardised the numbering of all mutations according to the full-length 156 amino acid form of p16. From this study we are able to define several hot spots, some of which occur at conserved residues within the ankyrin domains of p16. While many of the hotspots are shared by a number of cancers, the relative importance of each position varies, possibly reflecting the role of different carcinogens in the development of certain tumours. As reported previously, the mutational spectrum of CDKN2 in melanomas differs from that of internal malignancies and supports the involvement of UV in melanoma tumorigenesis. Notably, 52% of all substitutions in melanoma-derived samples occurred at just six nucleotide positions. Nonsense mutations comprise a comparatively high proportion of mutations present in the CDKN2 gene, and possible explanations for this are discussed.

Stochastic models and simulation of ion channel dynamics

The behaviour of ion channels within cardiac and neuronal cells is intrinsically stochastic in nature. When the number of channels is small this stochastic noise is large and can have an impact on the dynamics of the system which is potentially an issue when modelling small neurons and drug block in cardiac cells. While exact methods correctly capture the stochastic dynamics of a system they are computationally expensive, restricting their inclusion into tissue level models and so approximations to exact methods are often used instead. The other issue in modelling ion channel dynamics is that the transition rates are voltage dependent, adding a level of complexity as the channel dynamics are coupled to the membrane potential. By assuming that such transition rates are constant over each time step, it is possible to derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE), in the same manner as for biochemical reaction networks, that describes the stochastic dynamics of ion channels. While such a model is more computationally efficient than exact methods we show that there are analytical problems with the resulting SDE as well as issues in using current numerical schemes to solve such an equation. We therefore make two contributions: develop a different model to describe the stochastic ion channel dynamics that analytically behaves in the correct manner and also discuss numerical methods that preserve the analytical properties of the model.

Distribution trade sector output and productivity performance : a case study of Singapore and Hong Kong 2001-2008

This paper employs the industry of origin approach to compare value added and productivity of Singapore and Hong Kong's Distribution Trade Sector for the period 2001-2008. The direct comparison between these two economies was motivated by the statements of the Singapore government: Its services sector, especially in Retail Trade, lags behind Hong Kong's productivity levels. The results show that since 2005, Singapore's Distribution performance in terms of labour productivity was below Hong Kong's level, which was largely due to poor performance in its Retail Trade sector arising from an influx of foreign workers. Results from total factor productivity (TFP) between these two economies also suggest that Hong Kong's better performance (since 2005) was largely due to its ability to employ more educated and trained workers with limited use of capital. The results suggest that polices that worked in Hong Kong may not work for Singapore because its population is more diverse which poses a challenge to policy-makers in raising its productivity level.

Analyzing real-time video microscopy : the dynamics and geometry of vesicles and tubules in endocytosis

With the advent of live cell imaging microscopy, new types of mathematical analyses and measurements are possible. Many of the real-time movies of cellular processes are visually very compelling, but elementary analysis of changes over time of quantities such as surface area and volume often show that there is more to the data than meets the eye. This unit outlines a geometric modeling methodology and applies it to tubulation of vesicles during endocytosis. Using these principles, it has been possible to build better qualitative and quantitative understandings of the systems observed, as well as to make predictions about quantities such as ligand or solute concentration, vesicle pH, and membrane trafficked. The purpose is to outline a methodology for analyzing real-time movies that has led to a greater appreciation of the changes that are occurring during the time frame of the real-time video microscopy and how additional quantitative measurements allow for further hypotheses to be generated and tested.

Evolving noisy oscillatory dynamics in genetic regulatory networks

We introduce a genetic programming (GP) approach for evolving genetic networks that demonstrate desired dynamics when simulated as a discrete stochastic process. Our representation of genetic networks is based on a biochemical reaction model including key elements such as transcription, translation and post-translational modifications. The stochastic, reaction-based GP system is similar but not identical with algorithmic chemistries. We evolved genetic networks with noisy oscillatory dynamics. The results show the practicality of evolving particular dynamics in gene regulatory networks when modelled with intrinsic noise.

Aerial image analysis using spiking neural networks with application to power line corridor monitoring

Trees, shrubs and other vegetation are of continued importance to the environment and our daily life. They provide shade around our roads and houses, offer a habitat for birds and wildlife, and absorb air pollutants. However, vegetation touching power lines is a risk to public safety and the environment, and one of the main causes of power supply problems. Vegetation management, which includes tree trimming and vegetation control, is a significant cost component of the maintenance of electrical infrastructure. For example, Ergon Energy, the Australia’s largest geographic footprint energy distributor, currently spends over $80 million a year inspecting and managing vegetation that encroach on power line assets. Currently, most vegetation management programs for distribution systems are calendar-based ground patrol. However, calendar-based inspection by linesman is labour-intensive, time consuming and expensive. It also results in some zones being trimmed more frequently than needed and others not cut often enough. Moreover, it’s seldom practicable to measure all the plants around power line corridors by field methods. Remote sensing data captured from airborne sensors has great potential in assisting vegetation management in power line corridors. This thesis presented a comprehensive study on using spiking neural networks in a specific image analysis application: power line corridor monitoring. Theoretically, the thesis focuses on a biologically inspired spiking cortical model: pulse coupled neural network (PCNN). The original PCNN model was simplified in order to better analyze the pulse dynamics and control the performance. Some new and effective algorithms were developed based on the proposed spiking cortical model for object detection, image segmentation and invariant feature extraction. The developed algorithms were evaluated in a number of experiments using real image data collected from our flight trails. The experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness and advantages of spiking neural networks in image processing tasks. Operationally, the knowledge gained from this research project offers a good reference to our industry partner (i.e. Ergon Energy) and other energy utilities who wants to improve their vegetation management activities. The novel approaches described in this thesis showed the potential of using the cutting edge sensor technologies and intelligent computing techniques in improve power line corridor monitoring. The lessons learnt from this project are also expected to increase the confidence of energy companies to move from traditional vegetation management strategy to a more automated, accurate and cost-effective solution using aerial remote sensing techniques.