Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Aircraft trajectory simulator using a three degrees of freedom aircraft point mass model

Aircraft Operators Companies (AOCs) are always willing to keep the cost of a flight as low as possible. These costs could be modelled using a function of the fuel consumption, time of flight and fixed cost (over flight cost, maintenance, etc.). These are strongly dependant on the atmospheric conditions, the presence of winds and the aircraft performance. For this reason, much research effort is being put in the development of numerical and graphical techniques for defining the optimal trajectory. This paper presents a different approach to accommodate AOCs preferences, adding value to their activities, through the development of a tool, called aircraft trajectory simulator. This tool is able to simulate the actual flight of an aircraft with the constraints imposed. The simulator is based on a point mass model of the aircraft. The aim of this paper is to evaluate 3DoF aircraft model errors with BADA data through real data from Flight Data Recorder FDR. Therefore, to validate the proposed simulation tool a comparative analysis of the state variables vector is made between an actual flight and the same flight using the simulator. Finally, an example of a cruise phase is presented, where a conventional levelled flight is compared with a continuous climb flight. The comparison results show the potential benefits of following user-preferred routes for commercial flights.

Distributed orientation agreement in a group of robots

In this article, a method for the agreement of a set of robots on a common reference orientation based on a distributed consensus algorithm is described. It only needs that robots detect the relative positions of their neighbors and communicate with them. Two different consensus algorithms based on the exchange of information are proposed, tested and analyzed. Systematic experiments were carried out in simulation and with real robots in order to test the method. Experimental results show that the robots are able to agree on the reference orientation under certain conditions. Scalability with an increasing number of robots was tested successfully in simulation with up to 49 robots. Experiments with real robots succeeded proving that the proposed method works in reality.

Distributed Orientation Agreement in a Group of Robots

In this article, a method for the agreement of a set of robots on a common reference orientation based on a distributed consensus algorithm is described. It only needs that robots detect the relative positions of their neighbors and communicate with them. Two different consensus algorithms based on the exchange of information are proposed, tested and analyzed. Systematic experiments were carried out in simulation and with real robots in order to test the method. Experimental results show that the robots are able to agree on the reference orientation under certain conditions. Scalability with an increasing number of robots was tested successfully in simulation with up to 49 robots. Experiments with real robots succeeded proving that the proposed method works in reality.

A practical approach for outdoors distributed target localization in wireless sensor networks

Wireless sensor networks are posed as the new communication paradigm where the use of small, low-complexity, and low-power devices is preferred over costly centralized systems. The spectra of potential applications of sensor networks is very wide, ranging from monitoring, surveillance, and localization, among others. Localization is a key application in sensor networks and the use of simple, efficient, and distributed algorithms is of paramount practical importance. Combining convex optimization tools with consensus algorithms we propose a distributed localization algorithm for scenarios where received signal strength indicator readings are used. We approach the localization problem by formulating an alternative problem that uses distance estimates locally computed at each node. The formulated problem is solved by a relaxed version using semidefinite relaxation technique. Conditions under which the relaxed problem yields to the same solution as the original problem are given and a distributed consensusbased implementation of the algorithm is proposed based on an augmented Lagrangian approach and primaldual decomposition methods. Although suboptimal, the proposed approach is very suitable for its implementation in real sensor networks, i.e., it is scalable, robust against node failures and requires only local communication among neighboring nodes. Simulation results show that running an additional local search around the found solution can yield performance close to the maximum likelihood estimate.

ARGoS: a modular, multi-engine simulator for heterogeneous swarm robotics

We present ARGoS, a novel open source multi-robot simulator. The main design focus of ARGoS is the real-time simulation of large heterogeneous swarms of robots. Existing robot simulators obtain scalability by imposing limitations on their extensibility and on the accuracy of the robot models. By contrast, in ARGoS we pursue a deeply modular approach that allows the user both to easily add custom features and to allocate computational resources where needed by the experiment. A unique feature of ARGoS is the possibility to use multiple physics engines of different types and to assign them to different parts of the environment. Robots can migrate from one engine to another transparently. This feature enables entirely novel classes of optimizations to improve scalability and paves the way for a new approach to parallelism in robotics simulation. Results show that ARGoS can simulate about 10,000 simple wheeled robots 40% faster than real-time.

Simulation of academic performance rates, estimation of indicators of subjects and of a complete degree

The purpose of this paper is to present a program written in Matlab-Octave for the simulation of the time evolution of student curricula, i.e, how students pass their subjects along time until graduation. The program computes, from the simulations, the academic performance rates for the subjects of the study plan for each semester as well as the overall rates, which are a) the efficiency rate defined as the ratio of the number of students passing the exam to the number of students who registered for it and b) the success rate, defined as the ratio of the number of students passing the exam to the number of students who not only registered for it but also actually took it. Additionally, we compute the rates for the bachelor academic degree which are established for Spain by the National Quality Evaluation and Accreditation Agency (ANECA) and which are the graduation rate (measured as the percentage of students who finish as scheduled in the plan or taking an extra year) and the efficiency rate (measured as the percentage of credits which a student who graduated has really taken). The simulation is done in terms of the probabilities of passing all the subjects in their study plan. The application of the simulator to Polytech students in Madrid, where requirements for passing are specially stiff in first and second year subjects, is particularly relevant to analyze student cohorts and the probabilities of students finishing in the minimum of four years, or taking and extra year or two extra years, and so forth. It is a very useful tool when designing new study plans. The calculation of the probability distribution of the random variable "number of semesters a student has taken to complete the curricula and graduate" is difficult or even unfeasible to obtain analytically, and this is even truer when we incorporate uncertainty in parameter estimation. This is why we apply Monte Carlo simulation which not only provides illustration of the stochastic process but also a method for computation. The stochastic simulator is proving to be a useful tool for identification of the subjects most critical in the distribution of the number of semesters for curriculum vitae (CV) completion and subsequently for a decision making process in terms of CV planning and passing standards in the University. Simulations are performed through a graphical interface where also the results are presented in appropriate figures. The Project has been funded by the Call for Innovation in Education Projects of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) through a Project of its school Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales ETSII during the period September 2010-September 2011.

Progress on optimization of the solar cell fabrication process by impurity-to-efficiency predictive simulator

To optimize the last high temperature step of a standard solar cell fabrication process (the contact cofiring step), the aluminium gettering is incorporated in the Impurity-to-Efficiency simulation tool, so that it models the phosphorus and aluminium co-gettering effect on iron impurities. The impact of iron on the cell efficiency will depend on the balance between precipitate dissolution and gettering. Gettering efficiency is similar in a wide range of peak temperatures (600-850 ºC), so that this peak temperature can be optimized favoring other parameters (e.g. ohmic contact). An industrial co-firing step can enhance the co-gettering effect by adding a temperature plateau after the peak of temperature. For highly contaminated materials, a short plateau (menor que 2 min) at low temperature (600 ºC) is shown to reduce the dissolved iron.

Indoor characterization at production sccale: 200 kWp of CPV solar simulator measurements

In order to complement ISFOC’s characterization capabilities, a Helios 3198 CPV Solar Simulator was installed in summer 2010. This Solar Simulator, based on a parabolic mirror and a high-intensity, small area Xenon flash lamp was developed by the Instituto de Energía Solar in Madrid [1] and is manufactured and distributed by Soldaduras Avanzadas [2]. This simulator is used not only for R&D purposes, but as a quality control tool for incoming modules that are to be installed in ISFOC’s CPV plants. In this paper we will discuss the results of recent measurements of close to 5000 modules, the entire production of modules corresponding to a small CPV power plant (200 kWp). We scrutinize the resultant data for signs of drift in the measurements, and analyze the light quality before and after, to check for changes in spectrum or spatial uniformity.)

Failure Detectors in Homonymous Distributed Systems (with an Application to Consensus).

This paper is on homonymous distributed systems where processes are prone to crash failures and have no initial knowledge of the system membership (?homonymous? means that several processes may have the same identi?er). New classes of failure detectors suited to these systems are ?rst de?ned. Among them, the classes H? and H? are introduced that are the homonymous counterparts of the classes ? and ?, respectively. (Recall that the pair h?,?i de?nes the weakest failure detector to solve consensus.) Then, the paper shows how H? and H? can be implemented in homonymous systems without membership knowledge (under different synchrony requirements). Finally, two algorithms are presented that use these failure detectors to solve consensus in homonymous asynchronous systems where there is no initial knowledge ofthe membership. One algorithm solves consensus with hH?, H?i, while the other uses only H?, but needs a majority of correct processes. Observe that the systems with unique identi?ers and anonymous systems are extreme cases of homonymous systems from which follows that all these results also apply to these systems. Interestingly, the new failure detector class H? can be implemented with partial synchrony, while the analogous class A? de?ned for anonymous systems can not be implemented (even in synchronous systems). Hence, the paper provides us with the ?rst proof showing that consensus can be solved in anonymous systems with only partial synchrony (and a majority of correct processes).

Location-aided distributed primary user identification in a cognitive radio scenario

We address a cognitive radio scenario, where a number of secondary users performs identification of which primary user, if any, is trans- mitting, in a distributed way and using limited location information. We propose two fully distributed algorithms: the first is a direct iden- tification scheme, and in the other a distributed sub-optimal detection based on a simplified Neyman-Pearson energy detector precedes the identification scheme. Both algorithms are studied analytically in a realistic transmission scenario, and the advantage obtained by detec- tion pre-processing is also verified via simulation. Finally, we give details of their fully distributed implementation via consensus aver- aging algorithms.

4CaaSt: Comprehensive management of Cloud services through a PaaS

The 4CaaSt project aims at developing a PaaS framework that enables flexible definition, marketing, deployment and management of Cloud-based services and applications. The major innovations proposed by 4CaaSt are the blueprint and its management and lifecycle, a one stop shop for Cloud services and the management of resources in the PaaS level (including elasticity). 4CaaSt also provides a portfolio of ready to use Cloud native services and Cloud- aware immigrant technologies.

MMonCa: A flexible and powerful new Kinetic Monte Carlo simulator

Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a widely used technique to simulate the evolution of radiation damage inside solids. Despite de fact that this technique was developed several decades ago, there is not an established and easy to access simulating tool for researchers interested in this field, unlike in the case of molecular dynamics or density functional theory calculations. In fact, scientists must develop their own tools or use unmaintained ones in order to perform these types of simulations. To fulfil this need, we have developed MMonCa, the Modular Monte Carlo simulator. MMonCa has been developed using professional C++ programming techniques and has been built on top of an interpreted language to allow having a powerful yet flexible, robust but customizable and easy to access modern simulator. Both non lattice and Lattice KMC modules have been developed. We will present in this conference, for the first time, the MMonCa simulator. Along with other (more detailed) contributions in this meeting, the versatility of MMonCa to study a number of problems in different materials (particularly, Fe and W) subject to a wide range of conditions will be shown. Regarding KMC simulations, we have studied neutron-generated cascade evolution in Fe (as a model material). Starting with a Frenkel pair distribution we have followed the defect evolution up to 450 K. Comparison with previous simulations and experiments shows excellent agreement. Furthermore, we have studied a more complex system (He-irradiated W:C) using a previous parametrization [1]. He-irradiation at 4 K followed by isochronal annealing steps up to 500 K has been simulated with MMonCa. The He energy was 400 eV or 3 keV. In the first case, no damage is associated to the He implantation, whereas in the second one, a significant Frenkel pair concentration (evolving into complex clusters) is associated to the He ions. We have been able to explain He desorption both in the absence and in the presence of Frenkel pairs and we have also applied MMonCa to high He doses and fluxes at elevated temperatures. He migration and trapping dominate the kinetics of He desorption. These processes will be discussed and compared to experimental results. [1] C.S. Becquart et al. J. Nucl. Mater. 403 (2010) 75

Simulador WKM para gestión de conocimiento en una WSN

La gestión del conocimiento (KM) se basa en la captación, filtración, procesamiento y análisis de unos datos en bruto que con dicho refinamiento podrán llegar a convertirse en conocimiento o Sabiduría. Estas prácticas tendrán lugar en este PFC en una WSN (Wireless Sensor Network) compuesta de unos sofisticados dispositivos comúnmente conocidos como “motas” y cuya principal característica son sus bajas capacidades en cuanto a memoria, batería o autonomía. Ha sido objetivo primordial de este Proyecto de fin de Carrera aunar una WSN con la Gestión del Conocimiento así como demostrar que es posible llevar a cabo grandes procesamientos de información, con tan bajas capacidades, si se distribuyen correctamente los procesos. En primera instancia, se introducen conceptos básicos acerca de las WSN (Wireless Sensor Networks) así como de los elementos principales en dichas redes. Tras conocer el modelo de arquitectura de comunicaciones se procede a presentar la Gestión del Conocimiento de forma teórica y a continuación la interpretación que se ha hecho a partir de diversas referencias bibliográficas para llevar a cabo la implementación del proyecto. El siguiente paso es describir punto por punto todos los componentes del Simulador; librerías, funcionamiento y demás cuestiones sobre configuración y puesta a punto. Como escenario de aplicación se plantea una red de sensores inalámbricos básica cuya topología y ubicación es completamente configurable. Se lleva a cabo una configuración a nivel de red basada en el protocolo 6LowPAN pero con posibilidad de simplificarlo. Los datos se procesan de acuerdo a un modelo piramidal de Gestión de Conocimiento adaptable a las necesidades del usuario. Mediante la utilización de las diversas opciones que proporciona la interfaz gráfica implementada y los documentos de resultados que se van generando, se puede llevar a cabo un detallado estudio posterior de la simulación y comprobar si se cumplen las expectativas planteadas. Knowledge management (KM) is based on the collection, filtering, processing and analysis of some raw data which such refinement it can be turned into knowledge or wisdom. These practices will take place in a WSN (Wireless Sensor Network) consists of sophisticated devices commonly known as "dots" and whose main characteristics are its low capacity for memory, battery or autonomy. A primary objective of this Project will be to join a WSN with Knowledge Management and show that it is possible make largo information processing, with such low capacity if the processes are properly distributed. First, we introduce basic concepts about the WSN (Wireless Sensor Networks) and major elements of these networks. After meeting the communications architecture model, we proceed to show the Knowledge Management theory and then the interpretation of several bibliographic references to carry out the project implementation. The next step is discovering point by point all over the Simulator components; libraries, operation and the rest of points about configuration and tuning. As application scenario we propose a basic wireless sensor network whose topology and location is completely customizable. It will perform a network level configuration based in W6LowPAN Protocol. Data is processed according to a pyramidal pattern Knowledge Management adaptable to the user´s needs. The hardware elements will suffer more or less energy dependence depending on their role and activity in the network. Through the various options that provide the graphical interface has been implemented and results documents that are generated, can be carried out after a detailed study of the simulation and verify compliance with the expectations raised.

A scalable approach for content based image retrieval in cloud datacenter

The emergence of cloud datacenters enhances the capability of online data storage. Since massive data is stored in datacenters, it is necessary to effectively locate and access interest data in such a distributed system. However, traditional search techniques only allow users to search images over exact-match keywords through a centralized index. These techniques cannot satisfy the requirements of content based image retrieval (CBIR). In this paper, we propose a scalable image retrieval framework which can efficiently support content similarity search and semantic search in the distributed environment. Its key idea is to integrate image feature vectors into distributed hash tables (DHTs) by exploiting the property of locality sensitive hashing (LSH). Thus, images with similar content are most likely gathered into the same node without the knowledge of any global information. For searching semantically close images, the relevance feedback is adopted in our system to overcome the gap between low-level features and high-level features. We show that our approach yields high recall rate with good load balance and only requires a few number of hops.