Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

The spatial pattern of discrete beta-amyloid deposits in Alzheimer's disease reflects synaptic disconnection

The spatial pattern of discrete beta-amyloid (A beta) deposits was studied in the superficial laminae of cortical fields of different types and in the hippocampus in 6 cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD). In 41/42 tissues examined, discrete A beta deposits were aggregated into clusters and in 34/41 tissues (25/34 of the cortical tissues), there was evidence for a regular periodicity of the A beta deposit clusters parallel to the tissue boundary. The dimensions of the clusters varied from 400 to > 12,800 microns in different tissues. Although the A beta deposit clusters were larger than predicted, the regular periodicity suggests that they develop in relation to groups of cells associated with specific projections. This would be consistent with the hypothesis that the distribution of discrete A beta deposits in AD could reflect progressive synaptic disconnection along interconnected neuronal pathways. This implies that amyloid deposition could be a response to, rather than a cause of, synaptic disconnection in AD.

Neural population coding is optimized by discrete tuning curves

The sigmoidal tuning curve that maximizes the mutual information for a Poisson neuron, or population of Poisson neurons, is obtained. The optimal tuning curve is found to have a discrete structure that results in a quantization of the input signal. The number of quantization levels undergoes a hierarchy of phase transitions as the length of the coding window is varied. We postulate, using the mammalian auditory system as an example, that the presence of a subpopulation structure within a neural population is consistent with an optimal neural code.

Discrete element modelling of a rotating drum and drum granulation

This thesis reports the results of DEM (Discrete Element Method) simulations of rotating drums operated in a number of different flow regimes. DEM simulations of drum granulation have also been conducted. The aim was to demonstrate that a realistic simulation is possible, and further understanding of the particle motion and granulation processes in a rotating drum. The simulation model has shown good qualitative and quantitative agreement with other published experimental results. A two-dimensional bed of 5000 disc particles, with properties similar to glass has been simulated in the rolling mode (Froude number 0.0076) with a fractional drum fill of approximately 30%. Particle velocity fields in the cascading layer, bed cross-section, and at the drum wall have shown good agreement with experimental PEPT data. Particle avalanches in the cascading layer have been shown to be consistent with single layers of particles cascading down the free surface towards the drum wall. Particle slip at the drum wall has been shown to depend on angular position, and ranged from 20% at the toe and shoulder, to less than 1% at the mid-point. Three-dimensional DEM simulations of a moderately cascading bed of 50,000 spherical elastic particles (Froude number 0.83) with a fractional fill of approximately 30% have also been performed. The drum axis was inclined by 50 to the horizontal with periodic boundaries at the ends of the drum. The mean period of bed circulation was found to be 0.28s. A liquid binder was added to the system using a spray model based on the concept of a wet surface energy. Granule formation and breakage processes have been demonstrated in the system.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.

Using empirical evidence of variations in worker performance to extend the capabilities of discrete event simulations in manufacturing

Discrete event simulation of manufacturing systems has become widely accepted as an important tool to aid the design of such systems. Often, however, it is applied by practitioners in a manner which largely ignores an important element of industry; namely, the workforce. Workers are usually represented as simple resources, often with deterministic performance values. This approach ignores the potentially large effect that human performance variation can have on a system. A long-term data collection exercise is described with the aim of quantifying the performance variation of workers in a typical automotive assembly plant. The data are presented in a histogram form which is immediately usable in simulations to improve the accuracy of design assessment. The results show levels of skewness and range which are far larger than anticipated by current researchers and practitioners in the field.

On the 'classification' of neurodegenerative disorders:discrete entities, overlap or continuum?

The traditional method of classifying neurodegenerative diseases is based on the original clinico-pathological concept supported by 'consensus' criteria and data from molecular pathological studies. This review discusses first, current problems in classification resulting from the coexistence of different classificatory schemes, the presence of disease heterogeneity and multiple pathologies, the use of 'signature' brain lesions in diagnosis, and the existence of pathological processes common to different diseases. Second, three models of neurodegenerative disease are proposed: (1) that distinct diseases exist ('discrete' model), (2) that relatively distinct diseases exist but exhibit overlapping features ('overlap' model), and (3) that distinct diseases do not exist and neurodegenerative disease is a 'continuum' in which there is continuous variation in clinical/pathological features from one case to another ('continuum' model). Third, to distinguish between models, the distribution of the most important molecular 'signature' lesions across the different diseases is reviewed. Such lesions often have poor 'fidelity', i.e., they are not unique to individual disorders but are distributed across many diseases consistent with the overlap or continuum models. Fourth, the question of whether the current classificatory system should be rejected is considered and three alternatives are proposed, viz., objective classification, classification for convenience (a 'dissection'), or analysis as a continuum.

Steps and bumps:precision extraction of discrete states of molecular machines

We report statistical time-series analysis tools providing improvements in the rapid, precision extraction of discrete state dynamics from time traces of experimental observations of molecular machines. By building physical knowledge and statistical innovations into analysis tools, we provide techniques for estimating discrete state transitions buried in highly correlated molecular noise. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on simulated and real examples of steplike rotation of the bacterial flagellar motor and the F1-ATPase enzyme. We show that our method can clearly identify molecular steps, periodicities and cascaded processes that are too weak for existing algorithms to detect, and can do so much faster than existing algorithms. Our techniques represent a step in the direction toward automated analysis of high-sample-rate, molecular-machine dynamics. Modular, open-source software that implements these techniques is provided.

The mediating role of discrete emotions in the relationship between injustice and counterproductive work behaviors:a study in Pakistan

Purpose: Our study explores the mediating role of discrete emotions in the relationships between employee perceptions of distributive and procedural injustice, regarding an annual salary raise, and counterproductive work behaviors (CWBs). Design/Methodology/Approach: Survey data were provided by 508 individuals from telecom and IT companies in Pakistan. Confirmatory factor analysis, structural equation modeling, and bootstrapping were used to test our hypothesized model. Findings: We found a good fit between the data and our tested model. As predicted, anger (and not sadness) was positively related to aggressive CWBs (abuse against others and production deviance) and fully mediated the relationship between perceived distributive injustice and these CWBs. Against predictions, however, neither sadness nor anger was significantly related to employee withdrawal. Implications: Our findings provide organizations with an insight into the emotional consequences of unfair HR policies, and the potential implications for CWBs. Such knowledge may help employers to develop training and counseling interventions that support the effective management of emotions at work. Our findings are particularly salient for national and multinational organizations in Pakistan. Originality/Value: This is one of the first studies to provide empirical support for the relationships between in/justice, discrete emotions and CWBs in a non-Western (Pakistani) context. Our study also provides new evidence for the differential effects of outward/inward emotions on aggressive/passive CWBs. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis:a discrete approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) as introduced by Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (1978) is a linear programming technique that has widely been used to evaluate the relative efficiency of a set of homogenous decision making units (DMUs). In many real applications, the input-output variables cannot be precisely measured. This is particularly important in assessing efficiency of DMUs using DEA, since the efficiency score of inefficient DMUs are very sensitive to possible data errors. Hence, several approaches have been proposed to deal with imprecise data. Perhaps the most popular fuzzy DEA model is based on a-cut. One drawback of the a-cut approach is that it cannot include all information about uncertainty. This paper aims to introduce an alternative linear programming model that can include some uncertainty information from the intervals within the a-cut approach. We introduce the concept of "local a-level" to develop a multi-objective linear programming to measure the efficiency of DMUs under uncertainty. An example is given to illustrate the use of this method.

Two-dimensional viscoelastic discrete triangular system with negative-stiffness components

Potential applications of high-damping and high-stiffness composites have motivated extensive research on the effects of negative-stiffness inclusions on the overall properties of composites. Recent theoretical advances have been based on the Hashin-Shtrikman composite models, one-dimensional discrete viscoelastic systems and a two-dimensional nested triangular viscoelastic network. In this paper, we further analyze the two-dimensional triangular structure containing pre-selected negative-stiffness components to study its underlying deformation mechanisms and stability. Major new findings are structure-deformation evolution with respect to the magnitude of negative stiffness under shear loading and the phenomena related to dissipation-induced destabilization and inertia-induced stabilization, according to Lyapunov stability analysis. The evolution shows strong correlations between stiffness anomalies and deformation modes. Our stability results reveal that stable damping peaks, i.e. stably extreme effective damping properties, are achievable under hydrostatic loading when the inertia is greater than a critical value. Moreover, destabilization induced by elemental damping is observed with the critical inertia. Regardless of elemental damping, when the inertia is less than the critical value, a weaker system instability is identified.

Anomalies in stiffness and damping of a 2D discrete viscoelastic system due to negative stiffness components

The recent development of using negative stiffness inclusions to achieve extreme overall stiffness and mechanical damping of composite materials reveals a new avenue for constructing high performance materials. One of the negative stiffness sources can be obtained from phase transforming materials in the vicinity of their phase transition, as suggested by the Landau theory. To understand the underlying mechanism from a microscopic viewpoint, we theoretically analyze a 2D, nested triangular lattice cell with pre-chosen elements containing negative stiffness to demonstrate anomalies in overall stiffness and damping. Combining with current knowledge from continuum models, based on the composite theory, such as the Voigt, Reuss, and Hashin-Shtrikman model, we further explore the stability of the system with Lyapunov's indirect stability theorem. The evolution of the microstructure in terms of the discrete system is discussed. A potential application of the results presented here is to develop special thin films with unusual in-plane mechanical properties. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.