Prediction of Drug Dissolution Profiles Using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper investigates the efficacy and reliability of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as an intelligent decision support tool for pharmaceutical product formulation. Two case studies have been employed to evaluate capabilities of the Multilayer Perceptron network in predicting drug dissolution/release profiles. Performances of the network were evaluated using similarity factor (&fnof[sub 2]) — an index recommended by the United States Food and Drug Administration for profile comparison in pharmaceutical research. In addition, the bootstrap method was applied to assess the network prediction reliability by estimating confidence intervals associated with the results. The Multilayer Perceptron network also demonstrated a superior performance in comparison with multiple regression models. The results reveal that the ANN system has potentials to be a decision support tool for profile prediction in pharmaceutical experimentation, and the bootstrap method could be used as a means to assess reliability of the network prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR].

The role of social support in families coping with childhood brain tumor

Previous studies suggest that support from social networks is a protective factor buffering the negative effects of stressful events, such as having a child with a chronic illness. The literature highlights the need for more systematic examination of parents’ social support networks across the disease trajectory, to obtain a more complete understanding of how a family's support system affects adjustment over time. This was attempted in this study of 88 parents of children with brain tumors, recruited from hospitals in Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand. It employed a longitudinal design, tracking families for 2 years postdiagnosis to examine the relationship between social support and coping. As in previous research this study showed that different types of support are needed at different stages in the illness trajectory. The study also identified the use of various coping strategies by families, directed at the maintenance and enhancement of existing supports and the securing of new supports. The study failed to establish a statistically significant relationship between level of coping and social support, however, suggesting that parents were using primarily “internal” familial modes of coping, including preexisting patterns of coping, with external social support being an adjunct to their coping rather than being a major contributor.

Creative geeks? Investigating creativity support systems for information technology students

This study investigated creativity and what factors can be conducive to a creative educational milieu. The results of this study highlighted the diverse nature of creativity, and substantiated the need for an audience specific ‘Creativity Support System’. An outcome was a model of creative needs specific for an educational setting

Principal led school improvement and teacher capacity building in the Barwon South Network : final report, May 2013

The period of interest for this report is the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2012. The period commenced when the Regional Network Leader of the Barwon South Network of schools in the Barwon South Region of the Department of Education and Early Childhood contacted the School of Education at Deakin University, Waurn Ponds Campus Geelong. The Regional Network Leader outlined a desire to engage with Deakin University to research a short-term-cycle model of school improvement to be implemented in the region. While the model was expected to be taken on by all schools in the region the research was limited to the 23 schools in the Barwon South Network with four schools to be investigated more closely for each of two years (2001 & 2012) – eight focus schools in total.

Many positive outcomes flowed from the implementation of short-term-cycle school improvement plans and their associated practices but there was wide variation in the nature and degrees of success and of the perception of the process. The research team asked the following questions of the data:

1. What aspects of the School Improvement Plan (SIP) approach were important for initiating and supporting worthwhile change?
2. What might we take from this, to provide guidance on how best to support change in teaching and learning processes in schools?

The School Improvement Plan (SIP) worked in a range of ways. At one level it was strongly focused on school leadership, and a need to improve principals’ capacity to initiate worthwhile teaching and learning processes in their schools. Underlying this intent, one might think an assumption is operation is that the leadership process involves top down decision-making and a willingness to hold staff accountable for the quality of their practice.

The second strong focus was on the translation into practice and the consequent effect on student learning, involving an emphasis on data and evidence led practice. Hence, along with the leadership focus there was a demand for the process of school improvement to reach down into students and classrooms. Thus, the SIP process inevitably involved a chain of decision-making by which student learning quality drove the intervention, and teachers responsible for this had a common view. The model therefore should not be seen as an intervention only on the principal, but rather on the school decision-making system and focus. Even though it was the principal receiving the SIP planning template, and reporting to the network, the reporting was required to include description of the operation of the school processes, of classroom processes, and of student learning. This of course placed significant constraints on principals, which may help explain the variation in responses and outcomes described above.

The findings from this study are based on multiple data sources: analysis of both open and closed survey questions which all teachers in the 23 schools in the network were invited to complete; interviews with principals, teachers and leaders in the eight case study schools; some interviews with students in the case study schools; and interviews with leaders who worked in the regional network office; and field notes from network meetings including the celebrations days. Celebrations days occurred each school term when groups of principals came together to share and celebrate the improvements and processes happening in their schools. Many of the themes emerging from the analysis of the different data sources were similar or overlapping, providing some confidence in the evidence-base for the findings.

The study, conducted over two years of data collection and analysis, has demonstrated a range of positive outcomes in at the case study schools relating to school communication and collaboration processes, professional learning of principals, leadership teams and classroom teachers. There was evidence in the survey responses and field notes from ‘celebration days’ that these outcomes were also represented in other schools in the network. The key points of change concerned the leadership processes of planning for improvement, and the rigorous attention to student data in framing teaching and learning processes. This latter point of change had the effect of basing SIP processes on a platform of evidence-based change. The research uncovered considerable anecdotal and observational evidence of improvements in student learning, in teacher accounts in interview, and presentations of student work. Interviews with students, although not as representative as the team would have liked, showed evidence of student awareness of learning goals, a key driver in the SIP improvement model. It was, however, not possible over this timescale to collect objective comparative evidence of enhanced learning outcomes.

A number of features of the short-term-cycle SIP were identified that supported positive change across the network. These were: 1) the support structures represented by the network leader and support personnel within schools, 2) the nature of the SIP model – focusing strongly on change leadership but within a collaborative structure that combined top-down and bottom-up elements, 3) the focus on data-led planning and implementation that helped drill down to explicit elements of classroom practice, and 4) the accountability regimes represented by network leader presence, and the celebration days in which principals became effectively accountable to their peers. We found that in the second year of the project, momentum was lost in the case study schools, as the network was dismantled. This raised issues also for the conduct of research in situations of systemic change.

Alongside the finding of evidence of positive outcomes in the case study schools overall, was the finding that the SIP processes and outcomes varied considerably across schools. A number of contextual factors were identified that led to this variation, including school histories of reform, principal management style, and school size and structure that made the short-term-cycle model unmanageable. In some cases there was overt resistance to the SIP model, at least in some part, and this led to an element of performativity in which the language of the SIP was conscripted to other purposes. The study found that even with functioning schools the SIP was understood differently and the processes performed differently, raising the question of whether in the study we are dealing with one SIP or many. The final take home message from the research is that schools are complex institutions, and models of school improvement need to involve both strong principled features, and flexibility in local application, if all schools’ interests in improving teaching and learning processes and outcomes are to be served.

Shared decision making: what do clinicians need to know and why should they bother?

Shared decision making enables a clinician and patient to participate jointly in making a health decision, having discussed the options and their benefits and harms, and having considered the patient's values, preferences and circumstances. It is not a single step to be added into a consultation, but a process that can be used to guide decisions about screening, investigations and treatments. The benefits of shared decision making include enabling evidence and patients' preferences to be incorporated into a consultation; improving patient knowledge, risk perception accuracy and patient-clinician communication; and reducing decisional conflict, feeling uninformed and inappropriate use of tests and treatments. Various approaches can be used to guide clinicians through the process. We elaborate on five simple questions that can be used: What will happen if the patient waits and watches? What are the test or treatment options? What are the benefits and harms of each option? How do the benefits and harms weigh up for the patient? Does the patient have enough information to make a choice? Although shared decision making can occur without tools, various types of decision support tools now exist to facilitate it. Misconceptions about shared decision making are hampering its implementation. We address the barriers, as perceived by clinicians. Despite numerous international initiatives to advance shared decision making, very little has occurred in Australia. Consequently, we are lagging behind many other countries and should act urgently.

Analysis of operating environments: A diagnostic model for linking science, society and policy for sustainability

Through analysis of the dynamics between science and decision-making, we argue that diagnosing fit-for purpose approaches to linking science and decision-making may be possible. Such diagnosis should enable identification of appropriate processes, institutions, objects (e.g. tools, information products) and relationships that can facilitate outcomes. We begin the paper by unsettling the traditional constructions that science must distance itself from debates about values and what is at stake, and so from policy making. Then, drawing from mixed methods case studies in coastal South-eastern Australia, we describe how scientific research has had a bearing on decisions affecting society and the environment. These analyses suggest that the willingness and capacity of research organisations, programmes or projects to actively reflect on and participate in the evolution of the 'operating environment' for their research is integral to their ability to inform outcomes through science. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

A hybrid FAM–CART model and its application to medical data classification

In this paper, a hybrid model consisting of the fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) neural network and the classification and regression tree (CART) is formulated. FAM is useful for tackling the stability–plasticity dilemma pertaining to data-based learning systems, while CART is useful for depicting its learned knowledge explicitly in a tree structure. By combining the benefits of both models, FAM–CART is capable of learning data samples stably and, at the same time, explaining its predictions with a set of decision rules. In other words, FAM–CART possesses two important properties of an intelligent system, i.e., learning in a stable manner (by overcoming the stability–plasticity dilemma) and extracting useful explanatory rules (by overcoming the opaqueness issue). To evaluate the usefulness of FAM–CART, six benchmark medical data sets from the UCI repository of machine learning and a real-world medical data classification problem are used for evaluation. For performance comparison, a number of performance metrics which include accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, and the area under the receiver operation characteristic curve are computed. The results are quantified with statistical indicators and compared with those reported in the literature. The outcomes positively indicate that FAM–CART is effective for undertaking data classification tasks. In addition to producing good results, it provides justifications of the predictions in the form of a decision tree so that domain users can easily understand the predictions, therefore making it a useful decision support tool.

Consensus building in a local context for the AHP-GDM with the individual numerical scale and prioritization method

The methodology for selecting the individual numerical scale and prioritization method has recently been presented and justified in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, we further propose a novel AHP-group decision making (GDM) model in a local context (a unique criterion), based on the individual selection of the numerical scale and prioritization method. The resolution framework of the AHP-GDM with the individual numerical scale and prioritization method is first proposed. Then, based on linguistic Euclidean distance (LED) and linguistic minimum violations (LMV), the novel consensus measure is defined so that the consensus degree among decision makers who use different numerical scales and prioritization methods can be analyzed. Next, a consensus reaching model is proposed to help decision makers improve the consensus degree. In this consensus reaching model, the LED-based and LMV-based consensus rules are proposed and used. Finally, a new individual consistency index and its properties are proposed for the use of the individual numerical scale and prioritization method in the AHP-GDM. Simulation experiments and numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed model.

Effective Data Management Enables Intelligent Utility Management

Instrumentation and automation plays a vital role to managing the water industry. These systems generate vast amounts of data that must be effectively managed in order to enable intelligent decision making. Time series data management software, commonly known as data historians are used for collecting and managing real-time (time series) information. More advanced software solutions provide a data infrastructure or utility wide Operations Data Management System (ODMS) that stores, manages, calculates, displays, shares, and integrates data from multiple disparate automation and business systems that are used daily in water utilities. These ODMS solutions are proven and have the ability to manage data from smart water meters to the collaboration of data across third party corporations. This paper focuses on practical, utility successes in the water industry where utility managers are leveraging instantaneous access to data from proven, commercial off-the-shelf ODMS solutions to enable better real-time decision making. Successes include saving $650,000 / year in water loss control, safeguarding water quality, saving millions of dollars in energy management and asset management. Immediate opportunities exist to integrate the research being done in academia with these ODMS solutions in the field and to leverage these successes to utilities around the world.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Optimized Water Demand Management Through Intelligent Sensing And Analytics: The WISDOM Approach

New business and technology platforms are required to sustainably manage urban water resources [1,2]. However, any proposed solutions must be cognisant of security, privacy and other factors that may inhibit adoption and hence impact. The FP7 WISDOM project (funded by the European Commission - GA 619795) aims to achieve a step change in water and energy savings via the integration of innovative Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) frameworks to optimize water distribution networks and to enable change in consumer behavior through innovative demand management and adaptive pricing schemes [1,2,3]. The WISDOM concept centres on the integration of water distribution, sensor monitoring and communication systems coupled with semantic modelling (using ontologies, potentially connected to BIM, to serve as intelligent linkages throughout the entire framework) and control capabilities to provide for near real-time management of urban water resources. Fundamental to this framework are the needs and operational requirements of users and stakeholders at domestic, corporate and city levels and this requires the interoperability of a number of demand and operational models, fed with data from diverse sources such as sensor networks and crowsourced information. This has implications regarding the provenance and trustworthiness of such data and how it can be used in not only the understanding of system and user behaviours, but more importantly in the real-time control of such systems. Adaptive and intelligent analytics will be used to produce decision support systems that will drive the ability to increase the variability of both supply and consumption [3]. This in turn paves the way for adaptive pricing incentives and a greater understanding of the water-energy nexus. This integration is complex and uncertain yet being typical of a cyber-physical system, and its relevance transcends the water resource management domain. The WISDOM framework will be modeled and simulated with initial testing at an experimental facility in France (AQUASIM – a full-scale test-bed facility to study sustainable water management), then deployed and evaluated in in two pilots in Cardiff (UK) and La Spezia (Italy). These demonstrators will evaluate the integrated concept providing insight for wider adoption.

Sistema fuzzy para estimativa do bem-estar de matrizes pesadas

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Social support and infant malnutrition: a case-control study in an urban area of Southeastern Brazil

The relationship between malnutrition and social support was first suggested in the mid-1990s. Despite its plausibility, no empirical studies aimed at obtaining evidence of this association could be located. The goal of the present study was to investigate such evidence. A case-control study was carried out including 101 malnourished children (weight-for-age National Center for Health Statistics/WHO 5th percentile) aged 12-23 months, who were compared with 200 well-nourished children with regard to exposure to a series of factors related to their social support system. Univariate and multiple logistic regressions were carried out, odds ratios being adjusted for per capita family income, mother's schooling, and number of children. The presence of an interaction between income and social support variables was also tested. Absence of a partner living with the mother increased risk of malnutrition (odds ratio 2.4 (95 % CI 1.19, 4.89)), even after adjustment for per capita family income, mother's schooling, and number of children. The lack of economic support during adverse situations accounted for a very high risk of malnutrition (odds ratio 10.1 (95 % CI 3.48, 29.13)) among low-income children, but had no effect on children of higher-income families. Results indicate that receiving economic support is an efficient risk modulator for malnutrition among low-income children. In addition, it was shown that the absence of a partner living with the mother is an important risk factor for malnutrition, with an effect independent from per capita family income, mother's schooling, and number of children.

The impact of soybean expansion on mammal and bird, in the Balsas region, north Brasilian Cerrado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)