Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Associations of self-compassion and global self-esteem with positive and negative affect and stress reactivity in daily life: Findings from a smart phone study

The present study examined trait self-compassion and trait self-esteem in relation to positive (PA) and negative affect (NA), as well as their associations with stress reactivity in daily life. One hundred and one subjects completed questionnaires on perceived stress and affect twice a day for 14 consecutive days on smart phones. Results indicated that self-compassion and global self-esteem were positively related to PA and negatively to NA. After controlling for self-esteem, self-compassion remained significantly associated with PA and NA, whereas self-esteem was no longer associated with PA and NA after controlling for self-compassion. Furthermore, results indicated that self-compassion buffered the effect of stress on NA, whereas this was not the case for global self-esteem. Neither self-compassion nor self-esteem moderated the relation of stress on PA in separate models. The results of the present study add to the growing literature regarding beneficial relations of self-compassion and psychological well-being and further emphasize the distinction of self-compassion and global self-esteem.

Passive wireless sensor systems can recognize activites of daily living

The ability to determine what activity of daily living a person performs is of interest in many application domains. It is possible to determine the physical and cognitive capabilities of the elderly by inferring what activities they perform in their houses. Our primary aim was to establish a proof of concept that a wireless sensor system can monitor and record physical activity and these data can be modeled to predict activities of daily living. The secondary aim was to determine the optimal placement of the sensor boxes for detecting activities in a room. A wireless sensor system was set up in a laboratory kitchen. The ten healthy participants were requested to make tea following a defined sequence of tasks. Data were collected from the eight wireless sensor boxes placed in specific places in the test kitchen and analyzed to detect the sequences of tasks performed by the participants. These sequence of tasks were trained and tested using the Markov Model. Data analysis focused on the reliability of the system and the integrity of the collected data. The sequence of tasks were successfully recognized for all subjects and the averaged data pattern of tasks sequences between the subjects had a high correlation. Analysis of the data collected indicates that sensors placed in different locations are capable of recognizing activities, with the movement detection sensor contributing the most to detection of tasks. The central top of the room with no obstruction of view was considered to be the best location to record data for activity detection. Wireless sensor systems show much promise as easily deployable to monitor and recognize activities of daily living.

Three-year outcomes of Straumann Bone Level SLActive dental implants in daily dental practice: a prospective non-interventional study

OBJECTIVE The aim of this investigation was to evaluate the performance of Straumann Bone Level SLActive implants in various clinical situations in daily dental practice for up to 3 years. METHOD AND MATERIALS This was a prospective, multicenter, non-interventional study in which implants were placed within approved indications in any situation deemed suitable by the treating clinician. No implant placement or loading protocol was specified, and implants were placed according to the routine treatment protocols at each participating center. RESULTS In this analysis, data were available from 342 implants in 233 patients in three countries (USA, Canada, and Switzerland). One or two implants were placed in the majority of patients (70.8% and 19.3%, respectively), mostly in the maxilla (71.3%); almost half (47.7%) were placed in the esthetic zone. Implant placement after 4 to > 16 weeks of healing was preferred in Switzerland (92.0%), while 42.0% of implants were placed immediately in the USA and Canada. A flapless procedure was performed in 25.2% of cases in the USA and Canada, compared to 0.5% in Switzerland. Cumulative implant survival and success rates after 3 years were 97.5% and 93.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION Straumann Bone Level Implants can achieve favorable outcomes and high survival rates after 3 years in daily dental practice. The survival and success rates were comparable with those achieved in formal controlled clinical trials.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

"Daily Chronicle" [Rezension]

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Endogenous Financing and the Long Run Impact of Money Growth on Output and Prices

Most monetary models make use of the quantity theory of money along with a Phillips curve. This implies a strong correlation between money growth and output in the short run (with little or no correlation between money and prices) and a strong long run correlation between money growth and inflation and inflation (with little or no correlation between money growth and output). The empirical evidence between money and inflation is very robust, but the long run money/output relationship is ambiguous at best. This paper attempts to explain this by looking at the impact of money growth on firm financing.

The Time-Series Properties on Housing Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the housing price indexes for the MSAs, finding seven cointegrating vectors. Thus, the evidence suggests that one common trend links the housing prices in these eight MSAs, a purchasing power parity finding for the housing prices in Southern California. Second, we perform temporal Granger causality tests revealing intertwined temporal relationships. The Santa Anna MSA leads the pack in temporally causing housing prices in six of the other seven MSAs, excluding only the San Luis Obispo MSA. The Oxnard MSA experienced the largest number of temporal effects from other MSAs, six of the seven, excluding only Los Angeles. The Santa Barbara MSA proved the most isolated in that it temporally caused housing prices in only two other MSAs (Los Angels and Oxnard) and housing prices in the Santa Anna MSA temporally caused prices in Santa Barbara. Third, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each MSA, using various vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different MSAs. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.