Genetic monogamy in the absence of paternity guards: the Capricorn silvereye, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus, on Heron Island

We investigated the genetic mating system of a socially monogamous passerine bird, the Capricorn silvereye Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus, on an island of the Great Barrier Reef. There were no cases of extrapair paternity (EPP) among 122 offspring from 53 broods detectable by minisatellite or microsatellite DNA fingerprinting. Behavioral observations of paired birds showed that this was not a consequence of efficacious paternity guards and that females did not engage in extrapair copulation (EPC). Frequency of intrapair copulations was also low, with only 14 cases observed during 199 hours of observations of the 11 focal pairs in the fertile periods of females, and this was consistent with anatomical features of the cloacal protuberance in males. In this population, young birds form life-time pair bonds soon after gaining independence but females are obviously not attempting EPC possibly to redress this early mate choice. This is despite the fact that they breed in high density with a synchronous start and asynchronous spread of laying in a protracted season and males do not positively exhibit mate guarding behavior when females are fertile. Our results support high fidelity of socially monogamous birds on islands and are consistent with the hypothesis that sexual selection is reduced where genetic variation in fitness is limited.

Sun exposure and interaction with family history in risk of melanoma, Queensland, Australia

Sun exposure is the main environmental risk factor for melanoma, but the timing of exposure during life that confers increased risk is controversial. Here we provide the first report of the association between lifetime and age-specific cumulative ultraviolet exposure and cutaneous melanoma in Queensland, Australia, an area of high solar radiation, and examine the association separately for families at high, intermediate and low familial melanoma risk. Subjects were a population-based sample of melanoma cases diagnosed and registered in Queensland between 1982 and 1990 and their relatives. The analysis included 1,263 cases and relatives with confirmed cutaneous melanoma and 3,111 first-degree relatives without melanoma as controls. Data an lifetime residence and sun exposure, family history and other melanoma risk factors were collected by a mailed questionnaire. Using conditional multiple logistic regression with stratification by family, cumulative sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood after age 20 was significantly associated with melanoma, with estimated relative risks of 1.15 per 5,000 minimal erythemal doses (MEDs) from age 5 to 12 years, and 1.52 per 5 MEDs/day from age 20. There was no association with sun exposure in families at high familial melanoma risk. History of nonmelanoma skin cancer (relative risk [RR] = 1.26) and multiple sunburns (RR = 1.31) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood are important determinants of melanoma but not in those rare families with high melanoma susceptibility, in which genetic factors are likely to be more important. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Predicting discharge outcomes for stroke patients in Australia

Objective: This study aimed to describe discharge outcomes and explore their correlates for patients rehabilitated after stroke at an Australian hospital from 1993 to 1998. Design: Data on length of stay, discharge functional status, and discharge destination were retrospectively obtained from medical records. Patients' actual rehabilitation length of stay was compared with the Australian National Sub-Acute and Non-Acute Patient predicted length of stay. The change in length of stay over the 5-yr period from 1993 to 1998 was documented. Results: Patients' mean converted motor FIMTM scores improved from 53.1 at admission to 74.1 at discharge. Lower admission-converted motor FIM scores were related to longer length of stay, lower discharge-converted motor FIM scores, and the need for a change in living situation on discharge. Conclusion: The results of this study provide Australian data on discharge outcomes after stroke to assist in the planning and delivery of appropriate interventions to individual patients during rehabilitation.

Atom lasers, coherent states, and coherence. I. Physically realizable ensembles of pure states

A laser, be it an optical laser or an atom laser, is an open quantum system that produces a coherent beam of bosons (photons or atoms, respectively). Far above threshold, the stationary state rho(ss) of the laser mode is a mixture of coherent-field states with random phase, or, equivalently, a Poissonian mixture of number states. This paper answers the question: can descriptions such as these, of rho(ss) as a stationary ensemble of pure states, be physically realized? Here physical realization is as defined previously by us [H. M. Wiseman and J. A. Vaccaro, Phys. Lett. A 250, 241 (1998)]: an ensemble of pure states for a particular system can be physically realized if, without changing the dynamics of the system, an experimenter can (in principle) know at any time that the system is in one of the pure-state members of the ensemble. Such knowledge can be obtained by monitoring the baths to which the system is coupled, provided that coupling is describable by a Markovian master equation. Using a family of master equations for the (atom) laser, we solve for the physically realizable (PR) ensembles. We find that for any finite self-energy chi of the bosons in the laser mode, the coherent-state ensemble is not PR; the closest one can come to it is an ensemble of squeezed states. This is particularly relevant for atom lasers, where the self-energy arising from elastic collisions is expected to be large. By contrast, the number-state ensemble is always PR. As the self-energy chi increases, the states in the PR ensemble closest to the coherent-state ensemble become increasingly squeezed. Nevertheless, there are values of chi for which states with well-defined coherent amplitudes are PR, even though the atom laser is not coherent (in the sense of having a Bose-degenerate output). We discuss the physical significance of this anomaly in terms of conditional coherence (and hence conditional Bose degeneracy).

Wolbachia density and virulence attenuation after transfer into a novel host

The factors that control replication rate of the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis in its insect hosts are unknown and difficult to explore, given the complex interaction of symbiont and host genotypes. Using a strain of Wolbachia that is known to over-replicate and shorten the lifespan of its Drosophila melanogaster host, we have tracked the evolution of replication control in both somatic and reproductive tissues in a novel host/Wolbachia association. After transinfection (the transfer of a Wolbachia strain into a different species) of the over-replicating Wolbachia popcorn strain from D. metanogaster to Drosophila simulans, we demonstrated that initial high densities in the ovaries were in excess of what was required for perfect maternal transmission, and were likely causing reductions in reproductive fitness. Both densities and fitness costs associated with ovary infection rapidly declined in the generations after transinfection. The early death effect in D. simulans attenuated only slightly and was comparable to that induced in D. metanogaster. This study reveals a strong host involvement in Wolbachia replication rates, the independence of density control responses in different tissues, and the strength of natural selection acting on reproductive fitness.

Convergent maternal care strategies in ungulates and macropods

Mammals show extensive interspecific variation in the form of maternal care. Among ungulates, there is a dichotomy between species in which offspring follow the mother (following strategy) versus species in which offspring remain concealed (hiding strategy). Here we reveal that the same dichotomy exists among macropods (kangaroos, wallabies and allies). We test three traditional adaptive explanations and one new life history hypothesis. and find very similar patterns among both ungulates and macropods. The three traditional explanations that we tested were that a ''following'' strategy is associated with (1) open habitat, (2) large mothers, and (3) gregariousness. Our new life-history hypothesis is that a following strategy'' is associated with delayed weaning, and thus with the slow end of the slow-fast mammalian life-history continuum, because offspring devote resources to locomotion rather than rapid growth. Our comparative test strongly supports the habitat structure hypothesis and provides some support for this new delayed weaning hypothesis for both ungulates and macropods. We propose that sedentary young in closed habitats benefit energetically by having milk brought to them. In open habitats, predation pressure will select against hiding. Followers will suffer slower growth to independence. Taken together, therefore, our results provide the first quantitative evidence that macropods and ungulates are convergent with respect to interspecific variation in maternal care strategy. In both clades, differences between species in the form of parental care are due to a similar interaction between habitat, social behavior, and life history.

Standardised audit of hip fractures in Europe

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the outcomes of our patients admitted with hip fractures, and to benchmark these results with other hospitals, initially in Europe and subsequently in Australia. The Standardised Audit of Hip Fractures in Europe (SAHFE) questionnaires was used as the data gathering instrument. The participants were all patients admitted to Redcliffe Hospital with a fractured neck of femur prior to surgery. This paper reports the results of the first 70 consecutive patients admitted to Redcliffe Hospital with a fractured neck of femur from November 1st 2000. The main outcome measures were mobility, independence, residence prior to fracture; type of fracture and surgical repair; and time to surgery, survival rates and discharge destination. Results: 43 patients were admitted from home, but only 13 returned home directly from the orthopaedic ward. It is hoped that most of the 26 transferred to the rehabilitation ward will ultimately return home. 7 patients died, these were aged 82 to 102, and all had premorbid disease. Delays in surgery were apparent for 13 patients, mainly due to administrative problems. Conclusions: We support the recommendation in the Fifteenth Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network Publication on the management of hip fractures, that all units treating this condition should enter an audit to evaluate their management. (author abstract)

The effect of soft tissue deloading tape on thoracic spine pressure pain thresholds in asymptomatic subjects

The application of tape to deload soft tissue is used in the management of thoracic spine pain. A reported clinical feature of this treatment is reduced tenderness of the spine during postero-anterior mobilizations. A randomized, single blind, placebo controlled, repeated measures design study was employed to investigate the effects of deloading tape on pressure pain threshold measurements at the level of the T7 spinous process in an asymptomatic group of 24 subjects. Pressure pain thresholds were assessed prior to and following the application of deloading tape, placebo sham tape and no-tape control conditions. All subjects received all three conditions in a randomized order on three separate days. Differences between the pre- and post-measurements were used as indicators of change in a subject's pressure pain threshold. No significant change in pressure pain threshold measurements was found between conditions. In summary, this study demonstrated that deloading tape applied to the level of the T7 spinous process did not significantly change pressure pain threshold measurements in asymptomatic subjects, raising the possibility that any pain relieving effect may well be conditional upon pain being present. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing the relationship between morphological and molecular rates of change along phylogenies

Molecular evolution has been considered to be essentially a stochastic process, little influenced by the pace of phenotypic change. This assumption was challenged by a study that demonstrated an association between rates of morphological and molecular change estimated for total-evidence phylogenies, a finding that led some researchers to challenge molecular date estimates of major evolutionary radiations. Here we show that Omland's (1997) result is probably due to methodological bias, particularly phylogenetic nonindependence, rather than being indicative of an underlying evolutionary phenomenon. We apply three new methods specifically designed to overcome phylogenetic bias to 13 published phylogenetic datasets for vertebrate taxa, each of which includes both morphological characters and DNA sequence data. We find no evidence of an association between rates of molecular and morphological rates of change.

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence

The Limits of Rational Choice: New Institutionalism in the Test Bed of Central Banking Politics in Australia

This paper tests the explanatory capacities of different versions of new institutionalism by examining the Australian case of a general transition in central banking practice and monetary politics: namely, the increased emphasis on low inflation and central bank independence. Standard versions of rational choice institutionalism largely dominate the literature on the politics of central banking, but this approach (here termed RC1) fails to account for Australian empirics. RC1 has a tendency to establish actor preferences exogenously to the analysis; actors' motives are also assumed a priori; actor's preferences are depicted in relatively static, ahistorical terms. And there is the tendency, even a methodological requirement, to assume relatively simple motives and preference sets among actors, in part because of the game theoretic nature of RC1 reasoning. It is possible to build a more accurate rational choice model by re-specifying and essentially updating the context, incentives and choice sets that have driven rational choice in this case. Enter RC2. However, this move subtly introduces methodological shifts and new theoretical challenges. By contrast, historical institutionalism uses an inductive methodology. Compared with deduction, it is arguably better able to deal with complexity and nuance. It also utilises a dynamic, historical approach, and specifies (dynamically) endogenous preference formation by interpretive actors. Historical institutionalism is also able to more easily incorporate a wider set of key explanatory variables and incorporate wider social aggregates. Hence, it is argued that historical institutionalism is the preferred explanatory theory and methodology in this case.

Recoverable reserves and support effects when optimizing open pit mine designs

Orebody modelling, support effects and the estimation of recoverable reserves are key parts of open pit optimization studies. A case study is presented on the estimation of recoverable reserves using an implementation of indicator kriging where metal quantity is used to select cutoffs, and support corrections founded on a conditional simulation approach. Mining selectivity is explored in the subsequent optimization study to compare results from indicator kriging of grade estimates on a regular size blocks and indicator kriging estimates on small size blocks. The use of indicator kriging models adjusted for a given selectivity and the use of grade proportions in each block for the optimization study, provide a presentation of the expected ore recovery for a predefined level of selectivity. The case study shows that indicator kriging estimation with full accounting of block grade distributions generates substantially better results in the pit optimization study. In addition, the adverse effects of small blocks and over-smoothing on optimization results are illustrated.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.