A manutenção do equilíbrio econômico de contratos de obras públicas empreitadas: parâmetros para o estudo de riscos vinculados a atrasos no encaixe do preço

Dentre os diversos segmentos do Setor da Construção Civil, um dos principais é o de obras por empreitada global, que são aquelas contratadas por preço certo e total. As obras públicas, que têm como finalidade atender a uma utilidade pública e cujos contratos são regidos pela Lei 8.666/93, são geralmente contratadas sob esse regime de execução. O artigo 58 desta Lei determina que deva ser mantido o equilíbrio econômicofinanceiro dos contratos celebrados com o Poder Público. A fundamentação teórica trata dos conceitos de obras públicas, dos principais aspectos da Lei 8.666/93, de análise econômico-financeira e de análise de riscos. Este trabalho apresenta também uma sistemática e uma simulação numérica para formação de preços para obras empreitadas de Construção Civil. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é a criação de parâmetros para o estabelecimento de margens de proteção para a dilatação do prazo e respectivos encaixes de preços, visando, como determina a Lei 8.666/93, a manutenção do equilíbrio original. Com base na análise dos resultados de 63 obras, verifica-se a manutenção do equilíbrio econômico-financeiro, comparando-se a taxa de retorno restrita esperada pelas empresas no momento das licitações com a realmente alcançada na operação. A partir dos desvios detectados nas taxas de retorno nesses dois momentos, cria-se, pelo processo de simulação e análise de sensibilidade, parâmetros para cobertura dos referidos riscos. No momento da licitação, a taxa de retorno restrita média das obras analisadas é de 9,45% ao mês. No segundo momento, essa taxa cai para em média para 5,16% ao mês. Isto representa, em média, uma variação de 45,39%. A taxa média de atratividade das obras públicas analisadas está dentro do intervalo de 6% a 13% ao mês. Como parâmetro de cobertura de riscos quanto aos desvios de prazo e encaixe do preço, tem-se o intervalo de 1,5% a 11,5% do preço. Portanto, entre as obras analisadas, não existe o equilíbrio econômico-financeiro.

A test of the utility of DNA barcoding in the radiation of the freshwater stingray genus Potamotrygon (Potamotrygonidae, Myliobatiformes)

DNA barcoding is a recently proposed global standard in taxonomy based on DNA sequences. The two main goals of DNA barcoding methodology are assignment of specimens to a species and discovery of new species. There are two main underlying assumptions: i) reciprocal monophyly of species, and ii) intraspecific divergence is always less than interspecific divergence. Here we present a phylogenetic analysis of the family Potamotrygonidae based on mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene, sampling 10 out of the 18 to 20 valid species including two non-described species. Potamotrygonidae systematics is still not fully resolved with several still-to-be-described species while some other species are difficult to delimit due to overlap in morphological characters and because of sharing a complex color patterns. Our results suggest that the family passed through a process of rapid speciation and that the species Potamotrygon motoro, P. scobina, and P. orbignyi share haplotypes extensively. Our results suggest that systems of identification of specimens based on DNA sequences, together with morphological and/or ecological characters, can aid taxonomic studies, but delimitation of new species based on threshold values of genetic distances are overly simplistic and misleading.

Seasonal variability of a conditional stability constant and the characterization of sedimentary humic substances from typical agricultural and urban areas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Potential utility of melatonin as an antioxidant therapy in the management of sickle cell anemia

This study aimed to assess antioxidant effects of melatonintreatment compared to N-acetylcysteine (NAC) and to their combination in asickle cell suspension. Sickle erythrocytes were suspended in phosphate-buffered saline, pH 7.4, composing external control group. They were alsosuspended and incubated at 37°C either in the absence (experimental controlgroup) or in the presence of NAC, melatonin and their combination atconcentrations of 100 pM, 100 nM and 100 lM for 1 hr (treatment groups).The melatonin influences were evaluated by spectrophotometric [hemolysisdegree, catalase (CAT), glutathione S-transferase (GST), glutathioneperoxidase (GPx), glutathione reductase (GR), glucose-6-phosphatedehydrogenase (G6PDH), and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activities] andchromatographic methods [glutathione (GSH) and malondialdehyde (MDA)levels]. Incubation period was able to cause a rise about 64% on hemolysisdegree as well as practically doubled the lipid peroxidation levels (P < 0.01).However, almost all antioxidants tested treatments neutralized this incubationeffect observed in MDA levels. Among the antioxidant biomarkers evaluated,we observed a modulating effect of combined treatment on GPx and SODactivities (P < 0.01), which showed ~25% decrease in their activities. Inaddition, we found an antioxidant dose-dependent effect for melatonin onlipid peroxidation (r = 0.29; P = 0.03) and for combined antioxidanttreatments also on MDA levels (r = 0.37; P = 0.01) and on SOD activity(r = 0.54; P < 0.01). Hence, these findings contribute with important insightthat melatonin individually or in combination with NAC may be useful forsickle cell anemia management.

Localização e preço de contrato ótimo da geração distribuída em sistemas de distribuição radiais de energia elétrica

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Aplicação da moderna teoria do Portfólio em ativos não financeiros

The Markowitz's objective functions, Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk, are largely used tools in the financial Market for portfolio optimization. This paper tries to analyze these functions having as a target to adapt them for application in non-financial assets portfolios. The paper uses as an example the Electricity Market to analyze and optimize a fictitious investment portfolio of a possible electric power utility. Showing that, besides being possible, which considerations must be taken and which analysis must be made to apply the Modern Portfolio Theory in the non-financial universe

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The utility of open-access biodiversity information in representing anurans in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and Cerrado

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Maximizing the utility of bio-based diisocyanate and chain extenders in crystalline segmented thermoplastic polyester urethanes: effect of polymerization protocol

High molecular weight semi crystalline thermoplastic poly(ester urethanes), TPEUs, were prepared from a vegetable oil-based diisocyanate, aliphatic diol chain extenders and poly(ethylene adipate) macro diol using one-shot, pre-polymer and multi-stage polyaddition methods. The optimized polymerization reaction achieved ultra-high molecular weight TPEUs (>2 million as determined by GPC) in a short time, indicating a very high HPMDI diol reactivity. TPEUs with very well controlled hard segment (HS) and soft segment (SS) blocks were prepared and characterized with DSC, TGA, tensile analysis, and WAXD in order to reveal structure property relationships. A confinement effect that imparts elastomeric properties to otherwise thermoplastic TPEUs was revealed. The confinement extent was found to vary predictably with structure indicating that one can custom engineer tougher polyurethane elastomers by "tuning" soft segment crystallinity with suitable HS block structure. Generally, the HPMDI-based TPEUs exhibited thermal stability and mechanical properties comparable to entirely petroleum-based TPEUs. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Utility of inline milk fat and protein ratio to diagnose subclinical ketosis and to assign propylene glycol treatment in lactating dairy cows

The objective was to identify a fat-to-protein ratio (FPR) cut-off to diagnose subclinical ketosis (SCK) and to evaluate the effect of propylene glycol (PPG) treatment of cows with high FPR. The optimized cut-off was > 1.42; sensitivity (Se) = 92%; specificity (Sp) = 65%. A cut-off > 1.5 was selected for the PPG trial for balanced Se-Sp. Fat-to-protein ratio cut-offs > 1.25, 1.35, 1.50, 1.60, and 1.70 resulted in Se-Sp of 100% to 49%, 96% to 59%, 75% to 78%, 33% to 90%, and 8% to 96%, respectively. The proportions of cows with FPR > 1.25, 1.35, 1.42, 1.50, 1.60, and 1.70 were 60%, 50%, 44%, 30%, 14%, and 6%, respectively. Incidences of clinical ketosis and milk yield were similar between cows that received 400 mL of PPG (n = 34) and control cows (n = 38). Prevalence of SCK at enrollment was 29.2%; therefore, FPR > 1.5 is not indicated for treatment. Lower cut-offs should be used for screening.

EMERGENT CONDITIONAL RELATIONS IN A GO/NO-GO PROCEDURE: FIGURE-GROUND AND STIMULUS-POSITION COMPOUND RELATIONS

Past research has demonstrated emergent conditional relations using a go/no-go procedure with pairs of figures displayed side-by-side on a computer screen. The present Study sought to extend applications Of this procedure. In Experiment, 1, we evaluated whether emergent conditional relations Could be demonstrated when two-component stimuli were displayed in figure-ground relationships-abstract figures displayed on backgrounds of different colors. Five normal)), capable adults participated. During training, each two-component stimulus Was presented successively. Responses emitted in the presence of some Stimulus pairs (A1B1, A2B2, A3B3, B1C1, B2C2 and B3C3) were reinforced, whereas responses emitted in the presence of other pairs (A1B2, A1B3, A2B1, A2B3, A3B1, A3B2, B1C2, B1C3, B2C1, B2C3, B3C1 and B3C2) were not. During tests, new configurations (AC and CA) were presented, thus emulating structurally the matching-to-sample tests employed in typical equivalence Studies. All participants showed emergent relations consistent with stimulus equivalence during testing. In Experiment 2, we systematically replicated the procedures with Stimulus compounds consisting Of four figures (A1, A2, C1 and C2) and two locations (left - B1 and right - 132). A,11 6 normally capable adults exhibited emergent stimulus-stimulus relations. Together, these experiments show that the go/no-go procedure is a potentially useful alternative for Studying emergent. conditional relations when matching-to-sample is procedurally cumbersome or impossible to use.

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hymenopterists' guide to the Hymenoptera Anatomy Ontology: utility, clarification, and future directions

Hymenoptera exhibit an incredible diversity of phenotypes, the result of similar to 240 million years of evolution and the primary subject of more than 250 years of research. Here we describe the history, development, and utility of the Hymenoptera Anatomy Ontology (HAO) and its associated applications. These resources are designed to facilitate accessible and extensible research on hymenopteran phenotypes. Outreach with the hymenopterist community is of utmost importance to the HAO project, and this paper is a direct response to questions that arose from project workshops. In a concerted attempt to surmount barriers of understanding, especially regarding the format, utility, and development of the HAO, we discuss the roles of homology, "preferred terms", and "structural equivalency". We also outline the use of Universal Resource Identifiers (URIs) and posit that they are a key element necessary for increasing the objectivity and repeatability of science that references hymenopteran anatomy. Pragmatically, we detail a mechanism (the "URI table") by which authors can use URIs to link their published text to the HAO, and we describe an associated tool (the "Analyzer") to derive these tables. These tools, and others, are available through the HAO Portal website (http://portal.hymao.org). We conclude by discussing the future of the HAO with respect to digital publication, cross-taxon ontology alignment, the advent of semantic phenotypes, and community-based curation.

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Increasing age is associated with a reduction in overall heart rate variability as well as changes in complexity of physiologic dynamics. The aim of this study was to verify if the alterations in autonomic modulation of heart rate caused by the aging process could be detected by Shannon entropy (SE), conditional entropy (CE) and symbolic analysis (SA). Complexity analysis was carried out in 44 healthy subjects divided into two groups: old (n = 23, 63 +/- A 3 years) and young group (n = 21, 23 +/- A 2). It was analyzed SE, CE [complexity index (CI) and normalized CI (NCI)] and SA (0V, 1V, 2LV and 2ULV patterns) during short heart period series (200 cardiac beats) derived from ECG recordings during 15 min of rest in a supine position. The sequences characterized by three heart periods with no significant variations (0V), and that with two significant unlike variations (2ULV) reflect changes in sympathetic and vagal modulation, respectively. The unpaired t test (or Mann-Whitney rank sum test when appropriate) was used in the statistical analysis. In the aging process, the distributions of patterns (SE) remain similar to young subjects. However, the regularity is significantly different; the patterns are more repetitive in the old group (a decrease of CI and NCI). The amounts of pattern types are different: 0V is increased and 2LV and 2ULV are reduced in the old group. These differences indicate marked change of autonomic regulation. The CE and SA are feasible techniques to detect alteration in autonomic control of heart rate in the old group.

Diagnostic utility of immunohistochemistry in distinguishing trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma: evaluation using tissue microarray samples

Trichoepithelioma is a benign neoplasm that shares both clinical and histological features with basal cell carcinoma. It is important to distinguish these neoplasms because they require different clinical behavior and therapeutic planning. Many studies have addressed the use of immunohistochemistry to improve the differential diagnosis of these tumors. These studies present conflicting results when addressing the same markers, probably owing to the small number of basaloid tumors that comprised their studies, which generally did not exceed 50 cases. We built a tissue microarray with 162 trichoepithelioma and 328 basal cell carcinoma biopsies and tested a panel of immune markers composed of CD34, CD10, epithelial membrane antigen, Bcl-2, cytokeratins 15 and 20 and D2-40. The results were analyzed using multiple linear and logistic regression models. This analysis revealed a model that could differentiate trichoepithelioma from basal cell carcinoma in 36% of the cases. The panel of immunohistochemical markers required to differentiate between these tumors was composed of CD10, cytokeratin 15, cytokeratin 20 and D2-40. The results obtained in this work were generated from a large number of biopsies and resulted in the confirmation of overlapping epithelial and stromal immunohistochemical profiles from these basaloid tumors. The results also corroborate the point of view that trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma tumors represent two different points in the differentiation of a single cell type. Despite the use of panels of immune markers, histopathological criteria associated with clinical data certainly remain the best guideline for the differential diagnosis of trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma. Modern Pathology (2012) 25, 1345-1353; doi: 10.1038/modpathol.2012.96; published online 8 June 2012