Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Factors related to seat belt use : A Turkish case

Seat belts are effective safety devices used to protect car occupants from severe injuries and fatalities during road vehicle accidents. Despite the proven effectiveness of seat belts, seat belt use rates are quite low, especially in developing countries, such as Turkey. The general aim of the present study was to investigate a large variety of factors related to seat belt use among Turkish car occupants using different perspectives and methods and therefore, to contribute to the design of effective seat belt use interventions for increasing seat belt use rates in Turkey. Five sub-studies were conducted within the present study. In the first sub-study, environmental (e.g., road type) and psycho-social factors (e.g., belt use by other car occupants) related to the seat belt use of front-seat occupants were investigated using observation techniques. Being male, of a young age, and traveling on city roads were the main factors negatively related to seat belt use. Furthermore, seat belt use by the drivers and front-seat passengers was highly correlated and a significant predictors of each other. In the second sub-study, the motivations of the car occupants for seat belt use and non-use were investigated using interview techniques. Situational conditions, such as traveling on city roads and for short distances, and not believing in the effectiveness and relevance of seat belt use for safety, were the most frequently reported reasons for not using a seat belt. Safety, habit and avoiding punishment were among the most frequently reported reasons for using a seat belt. In the third sub-study, the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Health Belief Model (HBM) were applied to seat belt use using Structural Equation Modeling techniques. The TPB model showed a good fit to the data, whereas the HBM showed a poor fit to the data. Within the TPB model, attitude and subjective norm were significant predictors of intentions to use a seat belt on both urban and rural roads. In the fourth sub-study, seat belt use frequency and motivations for seat belt use among taxi drivers were investigated and compared between free-time and work-time driving using a survey. The results showed that taxi drivers used seat belts more when driving a private car in their free-times compared to when driving a taxi during their work-times. The lack of a legal obligation to use a seat belt in city traffic and fear of being attacked or robbed by the passengers were found as two specific reasons for not using a seat belt when driving a taxi. Lastly, in the fifth sub-study, the relationship of seat belt use to driver and health behaviors was investigated using a survey. Although seat belt use was related both to health and driver behaviors, factor analysis results showed that it grouped with driver behaviors. Based on the results of the sub-studies, a tentative empirical model showing different predictors of seat belt use was proposed. According to the model, safety and normative motivations and perceived physical barriers related to seat belt use are the three important predictors of seat belt use. Keywords: Seat belt use; environmental factors; psycho-social factors; safety and normative motivations; the Theory of Planned Behavior; the Health Belief Model; health behaviors; driver behaviors; front-seat occupants; taxi drivers; Turkey.

Fatigued driving : prevalence, risk factors and groups, and the law

Fatigue and sleepiness are major causes of road traffic accidents. However, precise data is often lacking because a validated and reliable device for detecting the level of sleepiness (cf. the breathalyzer for alcohol levels) does not exist, nor does criteria for the unambiguous detection of fatigue/sleepiness as a contributing factor in accident causation. Therefore, identification of risk factors and groups might not always be easy. Furthermore, it is extremely difficult to incorporate fatigue in operationalized terms into either traffic or criminal law. The main aims of this thesis were to estimate the prevalence of fatigue problems while driving among the Finnish driving population, to explore how VALT multidisciplinary investigation teams, Finnish police, and courts recognize (and prosecute) fatigue in traffic, to identify risk factors and groups, and finally to explore the application of the Finnish Road Traffic Act (RTA), which explicitly forbids driving while tired in Article 63. Several different sources of data were used: a computerized database and the original folders of multidisciplinary teams investigating fatal accidents (VALT), the driver records database (AKE), prosecutor and court decisions, a survey of young male military conscripts, and a survey of a representative sample of the Finnish active driving population. The results show that 8-15% of fatal accidents during 1991-2001 were fatigue related, that every fifth Finnish driver has fallen asleep while driving at some point during his/her driving career, and that the Finnish police and courts punish on average one driver per day on the basis of fatigued driving (based on the data from the years 2004-2005). The main finding regarding risk factors and risk groups is that during the summer months, especially in the afternoon, the risk of falling asleep while driving is increased. Furthermore, the results indicate that those with a higher risk of falling asleep while driving are men in general, but especially young male drivers including military conscripts and the elderly during the afternoon hours and the summer in particular; professional drivers breaking the rules about duty and rest hours; and drivers with a tendency to fall asleep easily. A time-of-day pattern of sleep-related incidents was repeatedly found. It was found that VALT teams can be considered relatively reliable when assessing the role of fatigue and sleepiness in accident causation; thus, similar experts might be valuable in the court process as expert witnesses when fatigue or sleepiness are suspected to have a role in an accident’s origins. However, the application of Article 63 of the RTA that forbids, among other things, fatigued driving will continue to be an issue that deserves further attention. This should be done in the context of a needed attitude change towards driving while in a state of extreme tiredness (e.g., after being awake for more than 24 hours), which produces performance deterioration comparable to illegal intoxication (BAC around 0.1%). Regarding the well-known interactive effect of increased sleepiness and even small alcohol levels, the relatively high proportion (up to 14.5%) of Finnish drivers owning and using a breathalyzer raises some concern. This concern exists because these drivers are obviously more focused on not breaking the “magic” line of 0.05% BAC than being concerned about driving impairment, which might be much worse than they realize because of the interactive effects of increased sleepiness and even low alcohol consumption. In conclusion, there is no doubt that fatigue and sleepiness problems while driving are common among the Finnish driving population. While we wait for the invention of reliable devices for fatigue/sleepiness detection, we should invest more effort in raising public awareness about the dangerousness of fatigued driving and educate drivers about how to recognize and deal with fatigue and sleepiness when they ultimately occur.

Work Stress and Early Atherosclerosis: Do Genetic Background and Pre-Employment Risk Factors Explain Conflicting Findings?

According to the models conceptualizing work stress, increased risk of health problems arise when high job demands co-occur with low job control (the demand-control model) or the efforts invested by the employee are disproportionately high compared to the rewards received (effort-reward imbalance model). This study examined the association between work stress and early atherosclerosis with particular attention to the role of pre-employment risk factors and genetic background in this association. The subjects were young healthy adults aged 24-39 who were participating in the 21-year follow-up of the ongoing prospective "Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns" study in 2001-2002. Work stress was evaluated with questionnaires on demand-control model and on effort-reward model. Atherosclerosis was assessed with ultrasound of carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT). In addition, risk for enhanced atherosclerotic process was assessed by measuring with heart rate variability and heart rate. Pre-employment risk factors, measured at age 12 to 18, included such as body mass index, blood lipids, family history of coronary heart disease, and parental socioeconomic position. Variants of the neuregulin-1 were determined using genomic DNA. The results showed that higher work stress was associated with higher IMT in men. This association was not attenuated by traditional risk factors of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease or by pre-employment risk factors measured in adolescence. Neuregulin-1 gene moderated the association between work stress and IMT in men. A significant association between work stress and IMT was found only for the T/T genotype of the neuregulin-1 gene but not for other genotypes. Among women an association was found between higher work stress and lower heart rate variability, suggesting higher risk for developing atherosclerosis. These associations could not be explained by demographic characteristics or coronary risk factors. The present findings provide evidence for an association between work stress and atherosclerosis in relatively young population. This association seems to be modified by genetic influences but it does not appear to be confounded by pre-employment adolescent risk factors.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Value-adding Australian sardines: Factors affecting rates of deterioration in sardine (Sardinops sagax) quality during post-harvest handling

Deficiencies in sardine post-harvest handling methods were seen as major impediments to development of a value-adding sector supplying Australian bait and human consumption markets. Factors affecting sardine deterioration rates in the immediate post-harvest period were investigated and recommendations made for alternative handling procedures to optimise sardine quality. Net to factory sampling showed that post-mortem autolysis was probably caused by digestive enzyme activity contributing to the observed temporal increase in sardine Quality Index. Belly burst was not an issue. Sardine quality could be maintained by reducing tank loading, and rapid temperature reduction using dedicated, on-board value-adding tanks. Fish should be iced between the jetty and the processing factory, and transport bins chilled using an efficient cooling medium such as flow ice.

Developmental origins of psychological vulnerability factors for mental disorders

Premature birth and associated small body size are known to affect health over the life course. Moreover, compelling evidence suggests that birth size throughout its whole range of variation is inversely associated with risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes in subsequent life. To explain these findings, the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) model has been introduced. Within this framework, restricted physical growth is, to a large extent, considered either a product of harmful environmental influences, such as suboptimal nutrition and alterations in the foetal hormonal milieu, or an adaptive reaction to the environment. Whether inverse associations exist between body size at birth and psychological vulnerability factors for mental disorders is poorly known. Thus, the aim of this thesis was to study in three large prospective cohorts whether prenatal and postnatal physical growth, across the whole range of variation, is associated with subsequent temperament/personality traits and psychological symptoms that are considered vulnerability factors for mental disorders. Weight and length at birth in full term infants showed quadratic associations with the temperamental trait of harm avoidance (Study I). The highest scores were characteristic of the smallest individuals, followed by the heaviest/longest. Linear associations between birth size and psychological outcomes were found such that lower weight and thinness at birth predicted more pronounced trait anxiety in late adulthood (Study II); lower birth weight, placental size, and head circumference at 12 months predicted a more pronounced positive schitzotypal trait in women (Study III); and thinness and smaller head circumference at birth associated with symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children who were born at term (Study IV). These associations occured across the whole variation in birth size and after adjusting for several confounders. With respect to growth after birth, individuals with high trait anxiety scores in late adulthood were lighter in weight and thinner in infancy, and gained weight more rapidly between 7 and 11 years of age, but weighed less and were shorter in late adulthood in relation to weight and height measured at 11 years of age (Study II). These results suggest that a suboptimal prenatal environment reflected in smaller birth size may affect a variety of psychological vulnerability factors for mental disorders, such as the temperamental trait of harm avoidance, trait anxiety, schizotypal traits, and symptoms of ADHD. The smaller the birth size across the whole range of variation, the more pronounced were these psychological vulnerability factors. Moreover, some of these outcomes, such as trait anxiety, were also predicted by patterns of growth after birth. The findings are concordant with the DOHaD model, and emphasise the importance of prenatal factors in the aetiology of not only mental disorders but also their psychological vulnerability factors.

Finnish seniors’ move to a senior house: Examining the push and pull factors

The purpose of this article is to explore the factors influencing residential decisions of Finnish seniors. Analysis draws on qualitative data gathered from in-depth interviews and open-ended survey questions completed by 37 seniors living in three independent living facilities in Finland. Content analysis was used to identify key factors pushing residents out of their former living situations and pulling them into their respective independent living facility. Analysis indicates that different senior houses attract different types of residents. Nevertheless, as a group, they reported similar motivational factors relating to community, physical, and social environments and to their personal circumstances.

Pull factors attracting residents to Finnish senior houses

Most elderly Finnish residents prefer to age in place, but some relocate because of push factors that create stress in their current homes and pull factors that attract them to a new dwelling. This survey examines the important pull factors that attract seniors to senior houses. Grocery nearby is the strongest pull factor followed by hospital or medical center and public transportation. A factor analysis reveals that attributes can be grouped into three factors: onsite services that allow the residents to maintain an active lifestyle with some luxury, everyday services and facilities that would enable aging in place, and physical activity facilities. Residents have chosen the type of senior housing that supports their lifestyle. Meanwhile, socioeconomic characteristics do not explain the differences in the types of features that attract residents.

Factors influencing the release and establishment of weed biological control agents

Mike Day and colleagues recently published their paper 'Factors influencing the release and establishment of weed biocontrol agents' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. The CRC for Australian Weed Management facilitated an investigation into the factors influencing the release and establishment of weed biological control agents on a wide variety of Australian weeds. The investigation improved the understanding of post-release ecology of biocontrol agents and generated recommendations for best practice. Factors affecting successful establishment on the weed include host plant characteristics, size of releases, dispersal power of the agent, predation and parasitism, and climate. A best practice guide was produced by the CRC to assist practitioners in designing robust release strategies to increase rates of establishment.

Lantana camara Linn. (Verbenaceae)

Lantana is a serious problem in several tropical and sub-tropical areas around the world. It is a Weed of National Significance in Australia where it costs the grazing industry alone over $104 million per annum. The chapter summarises current knowledge about the taxonomy, biology, distribution, ecology, impacts and biological control of the weed worldwide. Attempts to achieve biological control of lantana date back to 1902 making this weed one of our oldest targets. Although control has been achieved in some areas of the world, in many other areas control is still sub-optimum. Factors thought to contribute to the difficulty of achieving biocontrol include the plant's biology, the wide genetic variation associated with hundreds of varieties or biotypes and the wide range of climatic habitats associated with the weed. This chapter provides a good summary of the present day position.

Where do consumers draw the line? Factors informing perceptions and justifications of deviant consumer behaviour

Deviant consumer behaviour in the marketplace is an ongoing problem causing harm to the organisation, employees, and other consumers. To address this problem, this study explores consumer perceptions of right and wrong using the novel concept of a deviance threshold – the mental line in the sand dictating right and wrong. Using consumer-based interviews with a card-sort activity, findings supported and extended dimensions proposed to explain why some behaviours are perceived as more serious or unethical than others. Moreover, why specific neutralisation techniques are used and how they affect categorisations of behaviours within an individual’s deviance threshold is explained. This study offers alternative strategies tailored to challenging consumer justifications to curb deviance. Implications support abandoning the universal approach to deterrence.

On factors influencing the ductile-to-brittle transition in a bulk metallic glass

An experimental study to ascertain the ductile-to-brittle transition (DBT) in a bulk metallic glass (BMG) was conducted. Results of the impact toughness tests conducted at various temperatures on as-cast and structurally relaxed Zr-based BMG show a sharp DBT. The DBT temperature was found to be sensitive to the free-volume content in the alloy. Possible factors that result in the DBT were critically examined. It was found that the postulate of a critical free volume required for the amorphous alloy to exhibit good toughness cannot rationalize the experimental trends. Likewise, the Poisson's ratio-toughness correlations, which suggest a critical Poisson's ratio above which all glasses are tough, were found not to hold good. Viscoplasticity theories, developed using the concept of shear transformation zones and which describe the temperature and strain rate dependence of the crack-tip plasticity in BMGs, appear to be capable of capturing the essence of the experiments. Our results highlight the need for a more generalized theory to understand the origins of toughness in BMGs.

Incidence factors of the tracking systems used in parabolic-cylindrical concentrators

Several orientation and tracking systems employed in parabolic-cylindrical concentrators for focusing the direct solar radiation on the absorber tubes are analyzed from the technical and economic points of view. Case one, where the incidence factor was a function of declination and hour angle, showed that the maximum variations of incident factor from morning to noon was 0.5 at zero angle of declination. Case two, where the incidence factor was a function of declination, hour angle and latitude, showed the maximum variation of the incidence factor to be 0.128, which occurred during noon at the latitude of 30 degrees, corresponding to a change of declination from 0 to 23.5 degrees. In case three, the incidence factor, a function of declination only, showed that the maximum variation of the incidence factor corresponding to the change in declination from 0 to 23.5 degree was 0.0758. It is concluded that system three is the most efficient from the technical and economic point of view.

Factors influencing the outdoor concentration of carbonaceous aerosols at urban schools in Brisbane, Australia: implications for children’s exposure

This comprehensive study aimed to determine the sources and driving factors of organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations in ambient PM2.5 in urban schools. Sampling was conducted outdoors at 25 schools in the Brisbane Metropolitan Area, Australia. Concentrations of primary and secondary OC were quantified using the EC tracer method, with secondary OC accounting for an average of 60%. Principal component analysis distinguished the contributing sources above the background and identified groups of schools with differing levels of primary and secondary carbonaceous aerosols. Overall, the results showed that vehicle emissions, local weather conditions and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) were the key factors influencing concentrations of carbonaceous component of PM2.5 at these schools. These results provide insights into children’s exposure to vehicle emissions and SOA at such urban schools.