Agency problems with non-smooth decision profiles: the case of monopoly under product quality

A method for dealing with monotonicity constraints in optimal control problems is used to generalize some results in the context of monopoly theory, also extending the generalization to a large family of principal-agent programs. Our main conclusion is that many results on diverse economic topics, achieved under assumptions of continuity and piecewise differentiability in connection with the endogenous variables of the problem, still remain valid after replacing such assumptions by two minimal requirements.

Are Evaluation of ICTs Investment Using Decision Support Systems:Case Applications from Distributor's and End User's Perspective Group Decision

The evaluation of investments in advanced technology is one of the most important decision making tasks. The importance is even more pronounced considering the huge budget concerning the strategic, economic and analytic justification in order to shorten design and development time. Choosing the most appropriate technology requires an accurate and reliable system that can lead the decision makers to obtain such a complicated task. Currently, several Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) manufacturers that design global products are seeking local firms to act as their sales and services representatives (called distributors) to the end user. At the same time, the end user or customer is also searching for the best possible deal for their investment in ICT's projects. Therefore, the objective of this research is to present a holistic decision support system to assist the decision maker in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - working either as individual decision makers or in a group - in the evaluation of the investment to become an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user. The model is composed of the Delphi/MAH (Maximising Agreement Heuristic) Analysis, a well-known quantitative method in Group Support System (GSS), which is applied to gather the average ranking data from amongst Decision Makers (DMs). After that the Analytic Network Process (ANP) analysis is brought in to analyse holistically: it performs quantitative and qualitative analysis simultaneously. The illustrative data are obtained from industrial entrepreneurs by using the Group Support System (GSS) laboratory facilities at Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland and in Thailand. The result of the research, which is currently implemented in Thailand, can provide benefits to the industry in the evaluation of becoming an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user, particularly in the assessment of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) programme. After the model is put to test with an in-depth collaboration with industrial entrepreneurs in Finland and Thailand, the sensitivity analysis is also performed to validate the robustness of the model. The contribution of this research is in developing a new approach and the Delphi/MAH software to obtain an analysis of the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user that is flexible and applicable to entrepreneurs, who are looking for the most appropriate investment to become an ERP distributor or end user. The main advantage of this research over others is that the model can deliver the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user in a single number which makes it easier for DMs to choose the most appropriate ERP vendor. The associated advantage is that the model can include qualitative data as well as quantitative data, as the results from using quantitative data alone can be misleading and inadequate. There is a need to utilise quantitative and qualitative analysis together, as can be seen from the case studies.

Wireless e-Business Applications - Methods for Forecasting the Demand of Wireless Services and Technologies

Tämä tutkimus oli osa sähköistä liiketoimintaa ja langattomia sovelluksia tutkivaa projektia ja tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ennustamisen rooli päätöksenteko- ja suunnitteluprosessissa ja määrittää parhaiten soveltuvat ja useimmin käytetyt teknologian ennustusmenetelmät. Ennustusmenetelmiä tarkasteltiin erityisesti uuden teknologian ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimus perustui teknologista ennustamista, pitkän aikavälin suunnittelua ja innovaatioprosesseja käsittelevän kirjallisuuden analysointiin. Materiaalin perusteella kuvataan teknologian ennustamista informaation hankkimisvälineenä organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosessin apuna. Työssä arvioidaan myös seuraavat teknologisen ennustamisen menetelmät: trendianalyysi-, Delfoi-, cross-impact analyysi-, morfologinen analyysi- ja skenaario analyysimenetelmä. Työ tuo esille jokaisen ennustusmenetelmä ominaispiirteet, rajoitukset ja sovellusmahdollisuudet. Käyttäen esiteltyjä menetelmiä, saadaan kerättyä hyödyllistä informaatiota tulevaisuuden näkymistä, joita sitten voidaan käyttää hyväksi organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosesseissa.

Patients' characteristics associated with the decision of "do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation" order in a Swiss hospital.

BACKGROUND: According to Swiss legislation, do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DNACPR) order can be made at any time by patients only, unless the resuscitation is considered as futile, based on the doctors' evaluation. Little is known about how this decision is made, and which are the factors influencing this decision. METHODS: Observational, cross-sectional study was conducted between March and May 2013 on 194 patients hospitalized in the general internal medicine ward of a Swiss hospital. The associations between patients' DNACPR orders and gender, age, marital status, nationality, religion, number and type of comorbidities were assessed. RESULTS: 102 patients (53%) had a DNACPR order: 27% issued by the patient him/herself, 12% by his/her relatives and 61% by the medical team. Patients with a DNACPR order were significantly older: 80.7±10.8 vs. 67.5±15.1years in the "with" and "without" DNACPR order group, respectively, p<0.001. Oncologic disease was associated with a DNACPR order issued by the medical team (37.5% vs. 16.9% in the "with" and "without" DNACPR order group, respectively, p<0.05). Being protestant was associated with a DNACPR order issued by the patient (57.9% vs. 25.9% in the "with" and "without" DNACPR order group, respectively p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Over half of the patients admitted to a general internal medicine ward had a DNACPR order issued within the first 72h of hospitalization. Older age and oncologic disease were associated with a DNACPR decision by the medical team, while protestant religion was associated with a DNACPR decision by the patient.

Collective decision making in a heterogeneous environment: Lasius niger colonies preferentially forage at easy to learn locations

Many ants forage in complex environments and use a combination of trail pheromone information and route memory to navigate between food sources and the nest. Previous research has shown that foraging routes differ in how easily they are learned. In particular, it is easier to learn feeding locations that are reached by repeating (e.g. left-left or right-right) than alternating choices (left-right or right-left) along a route with two T-bifurcations. This raises the hypothesis that the learnability of the feeding sites may influence overall colony foraging patterns. We studied this in the mass-recruiting ant Lasius niger. We used mazes with two T-bifurcations, and allowed colonies to exploit two equidistant food sources that differed in how easily their locations were learned. In experiment 1, learnability was manipulated by using repeating versus alternating routes from nest to feeder. In experiment 2, we added visual landmarks along the route to one food source. Our results suggest that colonies preferentially exploited the feeding site that was easier to learn. This was the case even if the more difficult to learn feeding site was discovered first. Furthermore, we show that these preferences were at least partly caused by lower error rates (experiment 1) and greater foraging speeds (experiment 2) of foragers visiting the more easily learned feeder locations. Our results indicate that the learnability of feeding sites is an important factor influencing collective foraging patterns of ant colonies under more natural conditions, given that in natural environments foragers often face multiple bifurcations on their way to food sources.

Data Envelopment Analysis and non-discretionary inputs : How to select the most suitable model using multi-criteria decision analysis

Within Data Envelopment Analysis, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. The majority of them deliver divergent results. Decision makers face the difficult task of selecting the most suitable model. This study is performed to overcome this difficulty. By doing so, it fills a research gap. First, a two-step web-based survey is conducted. It aims (1) to identify the selection criteria, (2) to prioritize and weight the selection criteria with respect to the goal of selecting the most suitable model and (3) to collect the preferences about which model is preferable to fulfil each selection criterion. Second, Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to quantify the preferences expressed in the survey. Results show that the understandability, the applicability and the acceptability of the alternative models are valid selection criteria. The selection of the most suitable model depends on the preferences of the decision makers with regards to these criteria.

Training primary care physicians in shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening : Insights from the first statewide colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland

Background: The State of Vaud has launched the first population-based, organized, colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland for the population aged 50 to 69. Each primary care physician (PCP) has been invited to participate in an interactive session preparing them to enroll patients in the screening program. We aimed at testing the impact of an interactive seminar for PCPs on their intention to discuss the options of no screening, screening with the fecal-immunological test (FIT) and colonoscopy. We measured attitude, intentions and knowledge through questionnaires filled by PCPs before and after a 2.5 hour-long interactive seminar. The main outcome was the proportion of physicians foreseeing to offer coloscopy vs FIT on an equal basis. Physicians estimated the proportion of their patients prescribed a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) vs coloscopy over the months before the seminar and after the interactive seminar. We used a clinical vignette to test for knowledge about screening indications. The interactive seminar included powerpoint presentations with quizzes and clickers, an 8-minute video presenting a shared decision making (SDM) consultation around CRC screening and distribution of educational materials such as a SDM decision aid and background epidemiological information.

Organisational Buying Decision Process for Biodegradable Implants

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää organisaation ostopäätösprosessi, kun tuotteina ovat biohajoavat kasvo- ja kallokirurgian implantit. Ensin selvitettiin biohajoavien implanttien markkinapotentiaalia, biohajoavien materiaalien lisäksi implanttien valmistuksessa käytettäviä muita materiaaleja sekä implanteilta vaadittavia ominaisuuksia kirjallisuuden ja internetin sekä asiantuntijahaastatteluiden avulla. Kirjallisuuden avulla selvitettiin myös organisaatioiden ostopäätösprosessien yleisiä piirteitä ja vaiheita. Biohajoavien kasvo- ja kallokirurgian implanttien ostopäätösprosessia tutkittiin kirjallisen kyselytutkimuksen avulla, joka oli suunnattu alan asiantuntijoille Euroopassa, Yhdysvalloissa sekä Kanadassa. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin mm. tärkeimpiä käytettävien implanttien materiaalivalintaan vaikuttavia kriteereitä, ostopäätösprosessiin osallistuvia organisaation jäseniä, sekä heidän roolejaan päätöksenteossa, implantteja koskevan informaation etsintää sekä ostopäätösprosessin vaiheita. Kirjallisuudesta, internetistä, asiantuntijahaastatteluista ja kyselytutkimuksesta saatu tieto koottiin vuokaaviomalliksi, joka kuvaa kasvo- ja kallokirurgian implanttien ostopäätösprosessia organisaatioissa. Lopuksi esitettiin myös ehdotuksia markkinointisuunnitelmaan sekä jatkotutkimusehdotukset.

Impact of the introduction of real-time therapeutic drug monitoring on empirical doses of carbapenems in critically ill burn patients.

PURPOSE: Adequate empirical antibiotic dose selection for critically ill burn patients is difficult due to extreme variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may aid antibiotic prescription and implementation of initial empirical antimicrobial dosage recommendations. This study evaluated how gradual TDM introduction altered empirical dosages of meropenem and imipenem/cilastatin in our burn ICU. METHODS: Imipenem/cilastatin and meropenem use and daily empirical dosage at a five-bed burn ICU were analyzed retrospectively. Data for all burn admissions between 2001 and 2011 were extracted from the hospital's computerized information system. For each patient receiving a carbapenem, episodes of infection were reviewed and scored according to predefined criteria. Carbapenem trough serum levels were characterized. Prior to May 2007, TDM was available only by special request. Real-time carbapenem TDM was introduced in June 2007; it was initially available weekly and has been available 4 days a week since 2010. RESULTS: Of 365 patients, 229 (63%) received antibiotics (109 received carbapenems). Of 23 TDM determinations for imipenem/cilastatin, none exceeded the predefined upper limit and 11 (47.8%) were insufficient; the number of TDM requests was correlated with daily dose (r=0.7). Similar numbers of inappropriate meropenem trough levels (30.4%) were below and above the upper limit. Real-time TDM introduction increased the empirical dose of imipenem/cilastatin, but not meropenem. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time carbapenem TDM availability significantly altered the empirical daily dosage of imipenem/cilastatin at our burn ICU. Further studies are needed to evaluate the individual impact of TDM-based antibiotic adjustment on infection outcomes in these patients.

Newsprint Demand and Supply Scenarios

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli sanomalehtipaperin kysyntään ja tarjontaan vaikuttavien tekijöiden identifiointi ja analysointi. Nämä tekijät käytiin yhteisesti läpi skenaarioiden avulla. Aluksi kuvattiin teollisuuden ala ja esiteltiin tärkeimmät alaa kuvaavat mittarit. Analyysi tehtiin Porterin kilpailuteorian tekijöiden pohjalta. Työssä listattiin yksittäiset tekijät, jotka vaikuttavat sanomalehtipaperin kysyntään ja tarjontaan. Näistä tekijöistä valittiin tärkeimmät ja niiden pohjalta rakennettiin skenaarioita. Skenaariot kuvaavat erilaisia mahdollisia tulevaisuuksia.Kysyntä kuten myös tarjonta on jakautunut epätasaisesti maailmassa. Alueelliset erot ovat hyvinkin merkittäviä. Tästä johtuu laajamittainen kaupankäynti eri alueiden välillä. Käynnissä oleva paperiteollisuuden konsolidoitumisprosessi auttaa vähentämään sanomalehtipaperin hinnan ja tarjonnan heilahtelua. Tämä puolestaan johtuu alan keskittymisestä ja järkevästä kapasiteetin hallinnasta.Diplomityö korostaa sanomalehtipaperin tuottajien vastuuta tarjonnan lisäämisessä. E-median uhkaa tai mahdollisuutta on myös spekuloitu ja kysynnän alueellisen kysynnän kehitystä on analysoitu. Diplomityö antaa ehdotuksia erilaisiksi tulevaisuuden kehitysvaihtoehdoiksi. Sanomalehtipaperin kysyntä tulee kasvamaan maailmanlaajuisesti, tuotanto tulee siirtymään lähemmäksi markkinoita, kaupankäynti Aasiaan tulee kasvamaan ja yrityksen tulevat keskittymään viisaaseen kapasiteetin hallintaan.

Customer Research on a Group of European Book Publishers: Trends, Modes of Operation and Decision-Making Processes

Työn päätarkoitus oli tuottaa Stora Enson käyttöön tietoa kirjakustantajista, yhdestä yrityksen asiakassegmentistä. Yritys oli kiinnostunut useista asioista, jotka koskivat asiakkaita ja heidän mielipiteitään. Tarkoitus on, että Stora Enso voi käyttää tutkimuksella koottua tietoa oman toimintansa suunnittelun tukena. Kerätty sekundääritieto esittelee eurooppalaisen kirjakustantamisen nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta sekä teorioita, jotka tukevat tutkittuja aihealueita. Primääritieto kerättiin henkilökohtaisilla haastatteluilla. Otanta koostui kymmenestä kirjakustantajasta, jotka toimivat Suomessa sekä Stora Enson päämarkkina-alueilla. Tutkimus tarjoaa päivitetyn kuvauksen kirjakustantamisesta. Haastateltavien mielipiteet alan trendeistä olivat yhteneviä yleisen mielipiteen kanssa, eikä suuria mielipide-eroavaisuuksia havaittu. Kustantajien toimintatapoja ja päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monimutkaisiksi, koska useat asiat vaikuttavat kirjan syntyyn ja paperin ostoprosessiin. Lisäksi tutkimus esittelee haastateltavien mielipiteitä paperin merkityksestä heidän liiketoiminnassaan.

Some optimization and decision problems in proportional reinsurance

Reinsurance is one of the tools that an insurer can use to mitigate the underwriting risk and then to control its solvency. In this paper, we focus on the proportional reinsurance arrangements and we examine several optimization and decision problems of the insurer with respect to the reinsurance strategy. To this end, we use as decision tools not only the probability of ruin but also the random variable deficit at ruin if ruin occurs. The discounted penalty function (Gerber & Shiu, 1998) is employed to calculate as particular cases the probability of ruin and the moments and the distribution function of the deficit at ruin if ruin occurs.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.