Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

Validation of a food-frequency questionnaire assessment of carotenoid and vitamin E intake using weighed food records and plasma biomarkers: The method of triads model

Background: Reliability or validity studies are important for the evaluation of measurement error in dietary assessment methods. An approach to validation known as the method of triads uses triangulation techniques to calculate the validity coefficient of a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Objective: To assess the validity of an FFQ estimates of carotenoid and vitamin E intake against serum biomarker measurements and weighed food records (WFRs), by applying the method of triads. Design: The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of beta-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer. Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a WFR. Nonfasting blood samples were collected and plasma analysed for five carotenoids (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene) and vitamin E. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the dietary methods and the validity coefficient was calculated using the method of triads. The 95% confidence intervals for the validity coefficients were estimated using bootstrap sampling. Results: The validity coefficients of the FFQ were highest for alpha-carotene (0.85) and lycopene (0.62), followed by beta- carotene (0.55) and total carotenoids (0.55), while the lowest validity coefficient was for lutein (0.19). The method of triads could not be used for b- cryptoxanthin and vitamin E, as one of the three underlying correlations was negative. Conclusions: Results were similar to other studies of validity using biomarkers and the method of triads. For many dietary factors, the upper limit of the validity coefficients was less than 0.5 and therefore only strong relationships between dietary exposure and disease will be detected.

Ion beam modification and analysis of metal/polymer bi-layer thin films

A set of varying-thickness Au-films were thermally evaporated onto poly(styrene-co-acrylonitrile) thin film surfaces. The Au/PSA bi-layer targets were then implanted with 50 keV N+ ions to a fluence of 1 × 1016 ions/cm2 to promote metal-to-polymer adhesion and to enhance their mechanical and electrical performance. Electrical conductivity measurements of the implanted Au/PSA thin films showed a sharp percolation behavior versus the pre-implant Au-film thickness with a percolation threshold near the nominal thickness of 44 Å. The electrical conductivity results are discussed along with the film microstructure and the elemental diffusion/mixing within the Au/PSA interface obtained by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and ion beam analysis techniques (RBS and ERD).

Rheological Properties of Organoclay Suspensions in Epoxy Network Precursors

This paper deals with the evolution of the state of dispersion of organically modified montmorillonites in epoxy or amine precursors. The epoxy prepolymer is a diglycidyl ether of bisphenol A (DGEBA) and the curing agent is an aliphatic diamine with a polyoxypropylene backbone (Jeffamine D2000). The clay dispersion is evaluated at the platelet scale (nanoscopic scale) from X-ray spectrometry [wide-angle X-ray diffraction (WAXD) and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS)] and at the aggregates scale (microscopic scale) from rheological analysis. The organoclays used form gels in the monomers above the percolation threshold if no shear is applied and present a mechanical gel/sol transition when shear stress increases. Gel strength and viscosity at high shear rates are linked to the nanometric state of dispersion and reveal the existence of two different organizations depending on organoclay/monomer interactions: (i) When the clay shows good interactions with the monomer, a significant swelling of the clay galleries by the monomer is obtained. These swollen particles lead to formation of weak gels which after shearing give high relative viscosity fluids. (ii) When the clay develops poor interactions with the monomer, the clay tends to reduce its exchange surface with the monomer and leads to a strongly connected gel. Shear breaks down this physical network leading to a very low relative viscosity fluid composed of nonswollen particles keeping a high aspect ratio. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Advantage of single-trial models for response to selection in wheat breeding multi-environment trials

An investigation was conducted to evaluate the impact of experimental designs and spatial analyses (single-trial models) of the response to selection for grain yield in the northern grains region of Australia (Queensland and northern New South Wales). Two sets of multi-environment experiments were considered. One set, based on 33 trials conducted from 1994 to 1996, was used to represent the testing system of the wheat breeding program and is referred to as the multi-environment trial (MET). The second set, based on 47 trials conducted from 1986 to 1993, sampled a more diverse set of years and management regimes and was used to represent the target population of environments (TPE). There were 18 genotypes in common between the MET and TPE sets of trials. From indirect selection theory, the phenotypic correlation coefficient between the MET and TPE single-trial adjusted genotype means [r(p(MT))] was used to determine the effect of the single-trial model on the expected indirect response to selection for grain yield in the TPE based on selection in the MET. Five single-trial models were considered: randomised complete block (RCB), incomplete block (IB), spatial analysis (SS), spatial analysis with a measurement error (SSM) and a combination of spatial analysis and experimental design information to identify the preferred (PF) model. Bootstrap-resampling methodology was used to construct multiple MET data sets, ranging in size from 2 to 20 environments per MET sample. The size and environmental composition of the MET and the single-trial model influenced the r(p(MT)). On average, the PF model resulted in a higher r(p(MT)) than the IB, SS and SSM models, which were in turn superior to the RCB model for MET sizes based on fewer than ten environments. For METs based on ten or more environments, the r(p(MT)) was similar for all single-trial models.

Quantifying effects of soil heterogeneity on groundwater pollution in four sites in the USA

Four sites located in the north-eastern region of the United States of America have been chosen to investigate the impacts of soil heterogeneity in the transport of solutes (bromide and chloride) through the vadose zone (the zone in the soil that lies below the root zone and above the permanent saturated groundwater). A recently proposed mathematical model based on the cumulative beta distribution has been deployed to compare and contrast the regions' heterogeneity from multiple sample percolation experiments. Significant differences in patterns of solute leaching were observed even over a small spatial scale, indicating that traditional sampling methods for solute transport, for example the gravity pan or suction lysimeters, or more recent inventions such as the multiple sample percolation systems may not be effective in estimating solute fluxes in soils when a significant degree of soil heterogeneity is present. Consequently, ignoring soil heterogeneity in solute transport studies will likely result in under- or overprediction of leached fluxes and potentially lead to serious pollution of soils and/or groundwater. The cumulative beta distribution technique is found to be a versatile and simple technique of gaining valuable information regarding soil heterogeneity effects on solute transport. It is also an excellent tool for guiding future decisions of experimental designs particularly in regard to the number of samples within one site and the number of sampling locations between sites required to obtain a representative estimate of field solute or drainage flux.

Polyethylene multiwalled carbon nanotube composites

Polyethylene (PE) multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) with weight fractions ranging from 0.1 to 10 wt% were prepared by melt blending using a mini-twin screw extruder. The morphology and degree of dispersion of the MWCNTs in the PE matrix at different length scales was investigated using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM) and wide-angle X-ray diffraction (WAXD). Both individual and agglomerations of MWCNTs were evident. An up-shift of 17 cm(-1) for the G band and the evolution of a shoulder to this peak were obtained in the Raman spectra of the nanocomposites, probably due to compressive forces exerted on the MWCNTs by PE chains and indicating intercalation of PE into the MWCNT bundles. The electrical conductivity and linear viscoelastic behaviour of these nanocomposites were investigated. A percolation threshold of about 7.5 wt% was obtained and the electrical conductivity of PE was increased significantly, by 16 orders of magnitude, from 10(-20) to 10(-4) S/cm. The storage modulus (G') versus frequency curves approached a plateau above the percolation threshold with the formation of an interconnected nanotube structure, indicative of 'pseudo-solid-like' behaviour. The ultimate tensile strength and elongation at break of the nanocomposites decreased with addition of MWCNTs. The diminution of mechanical proper-ties of the nanocomposites, though concomitant with a significant increase in electrical conductivity, implies the mechanism for mechanical reinforcement for PE/MWCNT composites is filler-matrix interfacial interactions and not filler percolation. The temperature of crystallisation (T.) and fraction of PE that was crystalline (F-c) were modified by incorporating MWCNTs. The thermal decomposition temperature of PE was enhanced by 20 K on addition of 10 wt% MWCNT. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A time-domain test for some types of nonlinearity

The bispectrum and third-order moment can be viewed as equivalent tools for testing for the presence of nonlinearity in stationary time series. This is because the bispectrum is the Fourier transform of the third-order moment. An advantage of the bispectrum is that its estimator comprises terms that are asymptotically independent at distinct bifrequencies under the null hypothesis of linearity. An advantage of the third-order moment is that its values in any subset of joint lags can be used in the test, whereas when using the bispectrum the entire (or truncated) third-order moment is required to construct the Fourier transform. In this paper, we propose a test for nonlinearity based upon the estimated third-order moment. We use the phase scrambling bootstrap method to give a nonparametric estimate of the variance of our test statistic under the null hypothesis. Using a simulation study, we demonstrate that the test obtains its target significance level, with large power, when compared to an existing standard parametric test that uses the bispectrum. Further we show how the proposed test can be used to identify the source of nonlinearity due to interactions at specific frequencies. We also investigate implications for heuristic diagnosis of nonstationarity.

Relationships of sauries and needlefishes (Teleostei : Scomberesocoidea) to the internally fertilizing halfbeaks (Zenarchopteridae) based on the pharyngeal jaw apparatus

The 40 life history, myological, and osteological characters that Tibbetts (1992) used in his study of the hemiramphids are evaluated for both saury genera (Cololabis and Scomberesox) to determine if the Scomberesocidae are more closely related to the Zenarchopteridae, to the needlefishes (Belonidae), or to the halfbeaks (Hemiramphidae) and flyingfishes (Exocoetidae). Data were analyzed using PAUP*, and eight equally parsimonious trees were found (70 steps, CI 0.814, RI 0.938). This analysis indicates that sauries are most closely related to needlefishes, supporting the historical concept of the superfamily Scomberesocoidea as a monophyletic assemblage. A caudal displacement of the origin of the retractor dorsalis muscle is a tentative additional synapomorphy for all four saury species. Zenarchopteridae is strongly supported as a valid family sister to the Scomberesocoidea (decay index = 19, bootstrap = 100). Resolution of the internal structure of the Belonidae and the Hemiramphidae requires the identification of additional characters and examination of a greater number of taxa.

Cloning and sequence analysis of pituitary prolactin cDNA from the northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus)

The nuclectide sequence for pituitary prolactin cDNA from the marsupial bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus) was determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 5'/3' rapid amplification of cDNA ends. The deduced amino acid sequence showed high sequence identity with brushtail possum prolactin (95%) and all of the expected structural features of a quadruped prolactin. A prolactin gene tree was constructed and rates of evolution calculated for bandicoot, possum, opossum and several mammalian and non-mammalian prolactins. Bootstrap analysis provided strong support for marsupials as a sister group with eutherian mammals and weak support for opossum and bandicoot as an independent grouping from the brushtail possum. The rates of molecular evolution for marsupial prolactins were comparable to the slow rate seen in the majority of quadruped prolactins that have been sequenced. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining the effective dimensionality of the genetic variance-covariance matrix

Determining the dimensionality of G provides an important perspective on the genetic basis of a multivariate suite of traits. Since the introduction of Fisher's geometric model, the number of genetically independent traits underlying a set of functionally related phenotypic traits has been recognized as an important factor influencing the response to selection. Here, we show how the effective dimensionality of G can be established, using a method for the determination of the dimensionality of the effect space from a multivariate general linear model introduced by AMEMIYA (1985). We compare this approach with two other available methods, factor-analytic modeling and bootstrapping, using a half-sib experiment that estimated G for eight cuticular hydrocarbons of Drosophila serrata. In our example, eight pheromone traits were shown to be adequately represented by only two underlying genetic dimensions by Amemiya's approach and factor-analytic modeling of the covariance structure at the sire level. In, contrast, bootstrapping identified four dimensions with significant genetic variance. A simulation study indicated that while the performance of Amemiya's method was more sensitive to power constraints, it performed as well or better than factor-analytic modeling in correctly identifying the original genetic dimensions at moderate to high levels of heritability. The bootstrap approach consistently overestimated the number of dimensions in all cases and performed less well than Amemiya's method at subspace recovery.

Small-scale randomized controlled trials need more powerful methods of mediational analysis than the Baron-Kenny method

Objective: To devise more-effective physical activity interventions, the mediating mechanisms yielding behavioral change need to be identified. The Baron-Kenny method is most commonly used. but has low statistical power and May not identify mechanisms of behavioral change in small-to-medium size Studies. More powerful statistical tests are available, Study Design and Setting: Inactive adults (N = 52) were randomized to either a print or a print-plus-telephone intervention. Walking and exercise-related social support Were assessed at baseline, after file intervention, and 4 weeks later. The Baron-Kenny and three alternative methods of mediational analysis (Freedman-Schatzkin; MacKinnon et al.: bootstrap method) were used to examine the effects of social support on initial behavior change and maintenance. Results: A significant mediational effect of social support on initial behavior change was indicated by the MacKinnon et al., bootstrap. and. marginally. Freedman-Schatzkin methods, but not by the Baron-Kenny method. No significant mediational effecl of social support on maintenance of walking was found. Conclusions: Methodologically rigorous intervention studies to identify mediators of change in physical activity are costly and labor intensive, and may not be feasible with large samples. The Use of statistically powerful tests of mediational effects in small-scale studies can inform the development of more effective interventions. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thelastomatoidea (Nematoda : Oxyurida) of the Australian giant burrowing cockroach, Macropanesthia rhinoceros (Blaberidae : Geoscapheinae)

The thelastomatoid fauna of Macropanesthia rhinoceros was examined from 13 localities across its range in Queensland, Australia. Nine species of thelastomatoids, including two representing new genera, Geoscaphenema megaovum n. g., n. sp. and Jaidenema rhinoceratum n. g., n. sp., were found. Macropanesthia rhinoceros is reported as a new host for seven species previously recorded from Panesthia cribrata (Blaberidae: Panesthiinae) and P. tryoni tryoni, viz, Blattophila sphaerolaima, Leidynemella fusiformis, Cordonicola gibsoni, Travassosinema jaidenae, Coronostoma australiae, Hammerschmidtiella hochi and Desmicola ornata. Overall estimated richness for the system ranged from 10.1-13.5 species. The high degree of parasite faunal overlap between M. rhinoceros and the two Panesthia species is surprising given the disparate ecological niches that they occupy; P. cribrata and P. tryoni tryoni burrow in, and feed upon, moist decaying wood and require a climate that is moist all year round, whereas M. rhinoceros burrows in loose soil, feeds on fallen leaf litter and is tolerant of much drier environments.

What determines the finance-growth nexus? Empirical evidence for threshold models

This paper elaborates the notion of balanced'' financial development that is contingent on a country's general level of development. We develop an empirical framework to address this point, referring to threshold regressions and a bootstrap test for structural shift in a growth equation. We find that countries gain less from financial activity, if the latter fails to keep up with or exceeds what would follow from a balanced expansion path. These analyses contribute to the finance and growth literature in providing empirical support for the balanced'' financial development hypothesis.