A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Large-Size AlGaN/GaN HEMT Large-Signal Electrothermal Characterization and Modeling for Wireless Digital Communications

The rapid growth in high data rate communication systems has introduced new high spectral efficient modulation techniques and standards such as LTE-A (long term evolution-advanced) for 4G (4th generation) systems. These techniques have provided a broader bandwidth but introduced high peak-to-average power ratio (PAR) problem at the high power amplifier (HPA) level of the communication system base transceiver station (BTS). To avoid spectral spreading due to high PAR, stringent requirement on linearity is needed which brings the HPA to operate at large back-off power at the expense of power efficiency. Consequently, high power devices are fundamental in HPAs for high linearity and efficiency. Recent development in wide bandgap power devices, in particular AlGaN/GaN HEMT, has offered higher power level with superior linearity-efficiency trade-off in microwaves communication. For cost-effective HPA design to production cycle, rigorous computer aided design (CAD) AlGaN/GaN HEMT models are essential to reflect real response with increasing power level and channel temperature. Therefore, large-size AlGaN/GaN HEMT large-signal electrothermal modeling procedure is proposed. The HEMT structure analysis, characterization, data processing, model extraction and model implementation phases have been covered in this thesis including trapping and self-heating dispersion accounting for nonlinear drain current collapse. The small-signal model is extracted using the 22-element modeling procedure developed in our department. The intrinsic large-signal model is deeply investigated in conjunction with linearity prediction. The accuracy of the nonlinear drain current has been enhanced through several issues such as trapping and self-heating characterization. Also, the HEMT structure thermal profile has been investigated and corresponding thermal resistance has been extracted through thermal simulation and chuck-controlled temperature pulsed I(V) and static DC measurements. Higher-order equivalent thermal model is extracted and implemented in the HEMT large-signal model to accurately estimate instantaneous channel temperature. Moreover, trapping and self-heating transients has been characterized through transient measurements. The obtained time constants are represented by equivalent sub-circuits and integrated in the nonlinear drain current implementation to account for complex communication signals dynamic prediction. The obtained verification of this table-based large-size large-signal electrothermal model implementation has illustrated high accuracy in terms of output power, gain, efficiency and nonlinearity prediction with respect to standard large-signal test signals.

Modeling Robot Dynamic Performance for Endpoint Force Control

This research aims to understand the fundamental dynamic behavior of servo-controlled machinery in response to various types of sensory feedback. As an example of such a system, we study robot force control, a scheme which promises to greatly expand the capabilities of industrial robots by allowing manipulators to interact with uncertain and dynamic tasks. Dynamic models are developed which allow the effects of actuator dynamics, structural flexibility, and workpiece interaction to be explored in the frequency and time domains. The models are used first to explain the causes of robot force control instability, and then to find methods of improving this performance.

MARVEL: A System for Recognizing World Locations with Stereo Vision

To use a world model, a mobile robot must be able to determine its own position in the world. To support truly autonomous navigation, I present MARVEL, a system that builds and maintains its own models of world locations and uses these models to recognize its world position from stereo vision input. MARVEL is designed to be robust with respect to input errors and to respond to a gradually changing world by updating its world location models. I present results from real-world tests of the system that demonstrate its reliability. MARVEL fits into a world modeling system under development.

Modeling, Estimation, and Control of Robot-Soil Interactions

This thesis presents the development of hardware, theory, and experimental methods to enable a robotic manipulator arm to interact with soils and estimate soil properties from interaction forces. Unlike the majority of robotic systems interacting with soil, our objective is parameter estimation, not excavation. To this end, we design our manipulator with a flat plate for easy modeling of interactions. By using a flat plate, we take advantage of the wealth of research on the similar problem of earth pressure on retaining walls. There are a number of existing earth pressure models. These models typically provide estimates of force which are in uncertain relation to the true force. A recent technique, known as numerical limit analysis, provides upper and lower bounds on the true force. Predictions from the numerical limit analysis technique are shown to be in good agreement with other accepted models. Experimental methods for plate insertion, soil-tool interface friction estimation, and control of applied forces on the soil are presented. In addition, a novel graphical technique for inverting the soil models is developed, which is an improvement over standard nonlinear optimization. This graphical technique utilizes the uncertainties associated with each set of force measurements to obtain all possible parameters which could have produced the measured forces. The system is tested on three cohesionless soils, two in a loose state and one in a loose and dense state. The results are compared with friction angles obtained from direct shear tests. The results highlight a number of key points. Common assumptions are made in soil modeling. Most notably, the Mohr-Coulomb failure law and perfectly plastic behavior. In the direct shear tests, a marked dependence of friction angle on the normal stress at low stresses is found. This has ramifications for any study of friction done at low stresses. In addition, gradual failures are often observed for vertical tools and tools inclined away from the direction of motion. After accounting for the change in friction angle at low stresses, the results show good agreement with the direct shear values.

The Individual is Nothing, the Class Everything: Psychophysics and Modeling of Recognition in Obect Classes

Most psychophysical studies of object recognition have focussed on the recognition and representation of individual objects subjects had previously explicitely been trained on. Correspondingly, modeling studies have often employed a 'grandmother'-type representation where the objects to be recognized were represented by individual units. However, objects in the natural world are commonly members of a class containing a number of visually similar objects, such as faces, for which physiology studies have provided support for a representation based on a sparse population code, which permits generalization from the learned exemplars to novel objects of that class. In this paper, we present results from psychophysical and modeling studies intended to investigate object recognition in natural ('continuous') object classes. In two experiments, subjects were trained to perform subordinate level discrimination in a continuous object class - images of computer-rendered cars - created using a 3D morphing system. By comparing the recognition performance of trained and untrained subjects we could estimate the effects of viewpoint-specific training and infer properties of the object class-specific representation learned as a result of training. We then compared the experimental findings to simulations, building on our recently presented HMAX model of object recognition in cortex, to investigate the computational properties of a population-based object class representation as outlined above. We find experimental evidence, supported by modeling results, that training builds a viewpoint- and class-specific representation that supplements a pre-existing repre-sentation with lower shape discriminability but possibly greater viewpoint invariance.

Modeling Stock Order Flows and Learning Market-Making from Data

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.

On the difficulty of feature-based attentional modulations in visual object recognition: A modeling study.

Numerous psychophysical experiments have shown an important role for attentional modulations in vision. Behaviorally, allocation of attention can improve performance in object detection and recognition tasks. At the neural level, attention increases firing rates of neurons in visual cortex whose preferred stimulus is currently attended to. However, it is not yet known how these two phenomena are linked, i.e., how the visual system could be "tuned" in a task-dependent fashion to improve task performance. To answer this question, we performed simulations with the HMAX model of object recognition in cortex [45]. We modulated firing rates of model neurons in accordance with experimental results about effects of feature-based attention on single neurons and measured changes in the model's performance in a variety of object recognition tasks. It turned out that recognition performance could only be improved under very limited circumstances and that attentional influences on the process of object recognition per se tend to display a lack of specificity or raise false alarm rates. These observations lead us to postulate a new role for the observed attention-related neural response modulations.

Modeling and Analysis of Two-Part Type Manufacturing Systems

This paper presents a model and analysis of a synchronous tandem flow line that produces different part types on unreliable machines. The machines operate according to a static priority rule, operating on the highest priority part whenever possible, and operating on lower priority parts only when unable to produce those with higher priorities. We develop a new decomposition method to analyze the behavior of the manufacturing system by decomposing the long production line into small analytically tractable components. As a first step in modeling a production line with more than one part type, we restrict ourselves to the case where there are two part types. Detailed modeling and derivations are presented with a small two-part-type production line that consists of two processing machines and two demand machines. Then, a generalized longer flow line is analyzed. Furthermore, estimates for performance measures, such as average buffer levels and production rates, are presented and compared to extensive discrete event simulation. The quantitative behavior of the two-part type processing line under different demand scenarios is also provided.

Granular Attrition due to Rotary Valve in a Pneumatic Conveying System

The rotary valve is a widely used mechanical device in many solids-handling industrial processes. However, it may also be responsible for most of the attrition effects occurring in a typical process. In this study, the attrition effects occurring in a rotary valve operating as a stand-alone device and as part of a pneumatic conveying system were investigated. In the former case granular attrition was carried out at three different rotary valve speeds and the experimental results obtained were found to be in good agreement with the Gwyn correlation. In the latter case three typical air flow rates were used in the pneumatic conveying system. The size distribution of the attrition product obtained at the lowest air flow rate used was not adequately described by the Gwyn correlation. The attrition process and mechanisms involved were analysed and the minimum size of the attrition product obtained from both modes of operations was found to be similar.

Experimental Modeling and Control Strategies on an Open Mobile Robot Platform PRIM

This research work deals with the problem of modeling and design of low level speed controller for the mobile robot PRIM. The main objective is to develop an effective educational tool. On one hand, the interests in using the open mobile platform PRIM consist in integrating several highly related subjects to the automatic control theory in an educational context, by embracing the subjects of communications, signal processing, sensor fusion and hardware design, amongst others. On the other hand, the idea is to implement useful navigation strategies such that the robot can be served as a mobile multimedia information point. It is in this context, when navigation strategies are oriented to goal achievement, that a local model predictive control is attained. Hence, such studies are presented as a very interesting control strategy in order to develop the future capabilities of the system

Modeling of hybrid systems by piecewise decomposition

Piecewise linear models systems arise as mathematical models of systems in many practical applications, often from linearization for nonlinear systems. There are two main approaches of dealing with these systems according to their continuous or discrete-time aspects. We propose an approach which is based on the state transformation, more particularly the partition of the phase portrait in different regions where each subregion is modeled as a two-dimensional linear time invariant system. Then the Takagi-Sugeno model, which is a combination of local model is calculated. The simulation results show that the Alpha partition is well-suited for dealing with such a system

Evaluation of the effectiveness of an organization in the field of brand perception using a computer agent-based simulation system

Este proyecto de investigación busca usar un sistema de cómputo basado en modelación por agentes para medir la percepción de marca de una organización en una población heterogénea. Se espera proporcionar información que permita dar soluciones a una organización acerca del comportamiento de sus consumidores y la asociada percepción de marca. El propósito de este sistema es el de modelar el proceso de percepción-razonamiento-acción para simular un proceso de razonamiento como el resultado de una acumulación de percepciones que resultan en las acciones del consumidor. Este resultado definirá la aceptación de marca o el rechazo del consumidor hacia la empresa. Se realizó un proceso de recolección información acerca de una organización específica en el campo de marketing. Después de compilar y procesar la información obtenida de la empresa, el análisis de la percepción de marca es aplicado mediante procesos de simulación. Los resultados del experimento son emitidos a la organización mediante un informe basado en conclusiones y recomendaciones a nivel de marketing para mejorar la percepción de marca por parte de los consumidores.

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.