Development and use of risk adjusted statistical process control tools for the monitoring and improvement of clinical outcomes in interventional cardiology

This thesis explored the development of statistical methods to support the monitoring and improvement in quality of treatment delivered to patients undergoing coronary angioplasty procedures. To achieve this goal, a suite of outcome measures was identified to characterise performance of the service, statistical tools were developed to monitor the various indicators and measures to strengthen governance processes were implemented and validated. Although this work focused on pursuit of these aims in the context of a an angioplasty service located at a single clinical site, development of the tools and techniques was undertaken mindful of the potential application to other clinical specialties and a wider, potentially national, scope.

Mothers vs fathers as learner driver supervisors : time commitment, driving activities and perceptions of risk

The learner licence, within a graduated driver licensing system, provides new drivers with the opportunity to learn to drive under the supervision of a more experienced driver. The Queensland graduated driver licensing system requires learner drivers to record a minimum of 100 logbook hours of supervised practice with the support of parents appearing critical to ensure that this is achieved. This paper examines differences between mothers and fathers who supervise learner drivers. Mothers and fathers from Queensland who had recently supervised their child while they learnt to drive completed an internet survey about their experiences. It appears that one strategy that parents use to provide practice hours is for the child to drive themselves or their parents to or from activities that they would have attended anyway in addition to undertaking special trips in the car for the purposes of practising. The results suggest that mothers, when compared with fathers, consider driving at all stages of licensure riskier and that mothers provided more hours of supervision than fathers. However, despite this, there are limited differences between how frequently mothers and fathers provide different driving experiences such as deliberately practising in suburban areas or with passengers in the car. This research fills a gap in the literature by providing important information about the way in which parents supervise their children while they are driving on a learner licence as well as identifying some of the differences and similarities between mothers and fathers.

What are the offence and offender risk factors for Indigenous repeat drink drivers in Queensland?

In Australia and internationally, there is scant information about Indigenous repeat drink drivers. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated with repeat offending. De-identified data on drink driving convictions by offenders identifying as Indigenous in Queensland between 2006 and 2010 were examined. A range of univariate analyses were used to compare first time and repeat offenders on gender, age, court location and region (based on the accessibility/remoteness index of Australia), blood alcohol concentration and sentencing severity. Multivariate logistic regression adjusted for confounding variables. Convictions for repeat offenders were more likely from locations other than ‘major cities’ with the association strongest for courts in the ‘very remote’ region (OR=2.75, 2.06-3.76, p<.001). Indigenous offenders 40 years or older were found to be at reduced risk in comparison to offenders aged 15-24 years (OR=0.68, 0.54-0.86, p=0.01). After controlling for confounding factors, gender, sentencing severity and blood alcohol concentration levels were not significantly associated with recidivism. The association of recidivism and remoteness is consistent with higher rates of alcohol-related transport accidents involving Indigenous Australians in isolated areas. This study provides a platform for future research and allows for early attempts to address the need for intervention to reduce Indigenous drink driving recidivism.

Modelling risk at low exposure railway level crossings : supporting an argument for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity

This paper describes a risk model for estimating the likelihood of collisions at low-exposure railway level crossings, demonstrating the effect that differences in safety integrity can have on the likelihood of a collision. The model facilitates the comparison of safety benefits between level crossings with passive controls (stop or give-way signs) and level crossings that have been hypothetically upgraded with conventional or low-cost warning devices. The scenario presented illustrates how treatment of a cross-section of level crossings with low cost devices can provide a greater safety benefit compared to treatment with conventional warning devices for the same budget.

A meta-analysis of pigmentary characteristics, sun sensitivity, freckling and melanocytic nevi and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin

Objective: To calculate pooled risk estimates of the association between pigmentary characteristics and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin. Methods: We searched three electronic databases and reviewed the reference lists of the retrieved articles until July 2012 to identify eligible epidemiologic studies. Eligible studies were those published in between 1965 and July 2012 that permitted quantitative assessment of the association between histologically-confirmed BCC and any of the following characteristics: hair colour, eye colour, skin colour, skin phototype, tanning and burning ability, and presence of freckling or melanocytic nevi. We included 29 studies from 2236 initially identified. We calculated summary odds ratios (ORs) using weighted averages of the log OR, using random effects models. Results: We found strongest associations with red hair (OR 2.02; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.44), fair skin colour (OR 2.11; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.86), and having skin that burns and never tans (OR 2.03; 95% CI: 1.73, 2.38). All other factors had weaker but positive associations with BCC, with the exception of freckling of the face in adulthood which showed no association. Conclusions: Although most studies report risk estimates that are in the same direction, there is significant heterogeneity in the size of the estimates. The associations were quite modest and remarkably similar, with ORs between about 1.5 and 2.5 for the highest risk level for each factor. Given the public health impact of BCC, this meta-analysis will make a valuable contribution to our understanding of BCC.

Fraud risk and the visibility of carbon

In recent years, carbon has been increasingly rendered ‘visible’ both discursively and through political processes that have imbued it with economic value. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been constructed as social and environmental costs and their reduction or avoidance as social and economic gain. The ‘marketisation’ of carbon, which has been facilitated through various compliance schemes such as the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the Kyoto Protocol, the proposed Australian Emissions Reduction Scheme and through the voluntary carbon credit market, have attempted to bring carbon into the ‘foreground’ as an economic liability and/or opportunity. Accompanying the increasing economic visibility of carbon are reports of frauds and scams – the ‘gaming of carbon markets’(Chan 2010). As Lohmann (2010: 21) points out, ‘what are conventionally classed as scams or frauds are an inevitable feature of carbon offset markets, not something that could be eliminated by regulation targeting the specific businesses or state agencies involved’. This paper critiques the disparate discourses of fraud risk in carbon markets and examines cases of fraud within emerging landscapes of green criminology.

Culture in and culture of health promotion: tensions at the interface of Australian Indigenous health promotion

With persisting health inequalities across and between diverse populations, health promotion must consider its engagement with the culture concept in achieving better health for all. By way of a conversation between an Indigenous and non-Indigenous health promotion practitioner, this unique presentation will critically examine the cultural practice of health promotion for Indigenous Australians. Culture becomes the central tenant of this conversation – but not culture in the sense of something to “fix” to improve Indigenous health, or import to make mainstream practices “culturally appropriate”. Rather, the somewhat invisible culture of Australian health promotion practice itself is highlighted. The enthusiasm of mainstream health promotion practice for risk and reductionism supplants biological determinism with a cultural determinism that constructs culture as illness-producing. This is in contrast to Indigenous perspectives of culture in which it is described as integral to individual and community health and well-being. Whilst empowerment features strongly within global health promotion discourses, the preoccupation of health promotion with the inherent deficit/behavioural change approach is an all too convenient distraction from the broader structural factors impacting on the health of Indigenous Australians. That Indigenous Australians have not benefitted from successful public health policy interventions in the same way as the general population is in itself revealing of the culture of health promotion practice in Australia and it is somewhat ironic that the health promotion fraternity seems not to have questioned its own practice. This conversation aims to encourage health promotion practitioners, researchers and policy makers to interrogate the cultural assumptions of their own practice and of the public health system they are part of and consider how to embed and empower the voices and experiences of those who are ‘culturally othered’ within health promotion practice.

Complete mitochondrial genome sequencing reveals novel haplotypes in a Polynesian population

The high risk of metabolic disease traits in Polynesians may be partly explained by elevated prevalence of genetic variants involved in energy metabolism. The genetics of Polynesian populations has been shaped by island hoping migration events which have possibly favoured thrifty genes. The aim of this study was to sequence the mitochondrial genome in a group of Maoris in an effort to characterise genome variation in this Polynesian population for use in future disease association studies. We sequenced the complete mitochondrial genomes of 20 non-admixed Maori subjects using Affymetrix technology. DNA diversity analyses showed the Maori group exhibited reduced mitochondrial genome diversity compared to other worldwide populations, which is consistent with historical bottleneck and founder effects. Global phylogenetic analysis positioned these Maori subjects specifically within mitochondrial haplogroup - B4a1a1. Interestingly, we identified several novel variants that collectively form new and unique Maori motifs – B4a1a1c, B4a1a1a3 and B4a1a1a5. Compared to ancestral populations we observed an increased frequency of non-synonymous coding variants of several mitochondrial genes in the Maori group, which may be a result of positive selection and/or genetic drift effects. In conclusion, this study reports the first complete mitochondrial genome sequence data for a Maori population. Overall, these new data reveal novel mitochondrial genome signatures in this Polynesian population and enhance the phylogenetic picture of maternal ancestry in Oceania. The increased frequency of several mitochondrial coding variants makes them good candidates for future studies aimed at assessment of metabolic disease risk in Polynesian populations.

Epistatic effects of potassium channel variation on cardiac repolarization and atrial fibrillation risk

Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of cardiac K+ channel gene variants in families with atrial fibrillation (AF). Background The K+ channels play a major role in atrial repolarization but single mutations in cardiac K+ channel genes are infrequently present in AF families. The collective effect of background K+ channel variants of varying prevalence and effect size on the atrial substrate for AF is largely unexplored. Methods Genes encoding the major cardiac K+ channels were resequenced in 80 AF probands. Nonsynonymous coding sequence variants identified in AF probands were evaluated in 240 control subjects. Novel variants were characterized using patch-clamp techniques and in silico modeling was performed using the Courtemanche atrial cell model. Results Nineteen nonsynonymous variants in 9 genes were found, including 11 rare variants. Rare variants were more frequent in AF probands (18.8% vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001), and the mean number of variants was greater (0.21 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001). The majority of K+ channel variants individually had modest functional effects. Modeling simulations to evaluate combinations of K+ channel variants of varying population frequency indicated that simultaneous small perturbations of multiple current densities had nonlinear interactions and could result in substantial (>30 ms) shortening or lengthening of action potential duration as well as increased dispersion of repolarization. Conclusions Families with AF show an excess of rare functional K+ channel gene variants of varying phenotypic effect size that may contribute to an atrial arrhythmogenic substrate. Atrial cell modeling is a useful tool to assess epistatic interactions between multiple variants.

Familial recurrence risks for multiple sclerosis in Australia

BACKGROUND: Genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) has been recognised for many years. Considerable data exist from the northern hemisphere regarding the familial recurrence risks for MS, but there are few data for the southern hemisphere and regions at lower latitude such as Australia. To investigate the interaction between environmental and genetic causative factors in MS, the authors undertook a familial recurrence risk study in three latitudinally distinct regions of Australia. METHODS: Immediate and extended family pedigrees have been collected for three cohorts of people with MS in Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania spanning 15° of latitude. Age of onset data from Queensland were utilised to estimate age-adjusted recurrence rates. RESULTS: Recurrence risks in Australia were significantly lower than in studies from northern hemisphere populations. The age-adjusted risk for siblings across Australia was 2.13% compared with 3.5% for the northern hemisphere. A similar pattern was seen for other relatives. The risks to relatives were proportional to the population risks for each site, and hence the sibling recurrence-risk ratio (λ(s)) was similar across all sites. DISCUSSION: The familial recurrence risk of MS in Australia is lower than in previously reported studies. This is directly related to the lower population prevalence of MS. The overall genetic susceptibility in Australia as measured by the λ(s) is similar to the northern hemisphere, suggesting that the difference in population risk is explained largely by environmental factors rather than by genetic admixture.

Investigation of the 1758G>C and 2880A>G variants within the NCOA3 gene in a breast cancer affected Australian population

NCOA3 is a known low to moderate-risk breast cancer susceptibility gene, amplified in 5–10% and over expressed in about 60% of breast tumours. Additionally, this over expression is associated with Tamoxifen resistance and poor prognosis. Previously, two variants of NCOA3, 1758G > C and 2880A > G have been associated with breast cancer in two independent populations. Here we assessed the influence of the two NCOA3 variants on breast cancer risk by genotyping an Australian case–control study population. 172 cases and 178 controls were successfully genotyped for the 1758G > C variant and 186 cases and 182 controls were successfully genotyped for the 2880A > G variant using high-resolution melt analysis (HRM). The genotypes of the 1758G > C variant were validated by sequencing. χ2 tests were performed to determine if significant differences exist in the genotype and allele frequencies between the cases and controls. χ2 analysis returned no statistically significant difference (p > 0.05) for genotype frequencies between cases and controls for 1758G > C (χ2 = 0.97, p = 0.6158) or 2880A > G (χ2 = 2.09, p = 0.3516). Similarly, no statistical difference was observed for allele frequencies for 1758G > C (χ2 = 0.07, p = 0.7867) or 2880A > G (χ2 = 0.04, p = 0.8365). Haplotype analysis of the two SNPs also showed no difference between the cases and the controls (p = 0.9585). Our findings in an Australian Caucasian population composed of breast cancer sufferers and an age matched control population did not support the findings of previous studies demonstrating that these markers play a significant role in breast cancer susceptibility. Here, no significant difference was detected between breast cancer patients and healthy matched controls by either the genotype or allele frequencies for the investigated variants (all p ≥ 0.05). While an association of the two variants and breast cancer was not detected in our case–control study population, exploring these variants in a larger population of the same kind may obtain results in concordance with previous studies. Given the importance of NCOA3 and its involvement in biological processes involved in breast cancer and the possible implications variants of the gene could have on the response to Tamoxifen therapy, NCOA3 remains a candidate for further investigations.

Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. Methods: We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. Results: In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/ signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant difference (F = 2.75, P = 0.04) was detected for age of disease onset between the affected misclassified as controls (mean = 36 years) and the other three groups (high, 33.5 years; medium, 33.4 years; low, 33.1 years). Conclusions: The results are consistent with the polygenic model of inheritance. The cumulative genetic risk established using currently available genome-wide association data provides important insights into disease heterogeneity and completeness of current knowledge in MS genetics.

Single nucleotide polymorphism in hsa-mir-196a-2 and breast cancer risk : a case control study

microRNAs are small, non-coding RNAs that influence gene expression on a post-transcriptional level. They participate in diverse biological pathways and may act as either tumor suppressor genes or oncogenes. As they may have an effect on thousands of target mRNAs, single-nucleotide polymorphisms in microRNA genes might have major functional consequences, because the microRNA's properties and/or maturation may change. miR-196a has been reported to be aberrantly expressed in breast cancer tissue. Additionally, the SNP rs11614913 in hsa-mir-196a-2 has been found to be associated with breast cancer risk in some studies although not in others. This study evaluated the association between rs11614913 and breast cancer risk in a Caucasian case-control cohort in Queensland, Australia. Results do not support an association of the tested hsa-mir-196a-2 polymorphism with breast cancer susceptibility in this cohort. As there is a discrepancy between our results and previous findings, it is important to assess the role of rs11614913 in breast cancer by further larger studies investigating different ethnic groups.

Variants in the human potassium channel gene (KCNN3) are associated with migraine in a high risk genetic isolate

The calcium-activated potassium ion channel gene (KCNN3) is located in the vicinity of the familial hemiplegic migraine type 2 locus on chromosome 1q21.3. This gene is expressed in the central nervous system and plays a role in neural excitability. Previous association studies have provided some, although not conclusive, evidence for involvement of this gene in migraine susceptibility. To elucidate KCNN3 involvement in migraine, we performed gene-wide SNP genotyping in a high-risk genetic isolate from Norfolk Island, a population descended from a small number of eighteenth century Isle of Man ‘Bounty Mutineer’ and Tahitian founders. Phenotype information was available for 377 individuals who are related through the single, well-defined Norfolk pedigree (96 were affected: 64 MA, 32 MO). A total of 85 SNPs spanning the KCNN3 gene were genotyped in a sub-sample of 285 related individuals (76 affected), all core members of the extensive Norfolk Island ‘Bounty Mutineer’ genealogy. All genotyping was performed using the Illumina BeadArray platform. The analysis was performed using the statistical program SOLAR v4.0.6 assuming an additive model of allelic effect adjusted for the effects of age and sex. Haplotype analysis was undertaken using the program HAPLOVIEW v4.0. A total of four intronic SNPs in the KCNN3 gene displayed significant association (P < 0.05) with migraine. Two SNPs, rs73532286 and rs6426929, separated by approximately 0.1 kb, displayed complete LD (r 2 = 1.00, D′ = 1.00, D′ 95% CI = 0.96–1.00). In all cases, the minor allele led to a decrease in migraine risk (beta coefficient = 0.286–0.315), suggesting that common gene variants confer an increased risk of migraine in the Norfolk pedigree. This effect may be explained by founder effect in this genetic isolate. This study provides evidence for association of variants in the KCNN3 ion channel gene with migraine susceptibility in the Norfolk genetic isolate with the rarer allelic variants conferring a possible protective role. This the first comprehensive analysis of this potential candidate gene in migraine and also the first study that has utilised the unique Norfolk Island large pedigree isolate to implicate a specific migraine gene. Studies of additional variants in KCNN3 in the Norfolk pedigree are now required (e.g. polyglutamine variants) and further analyses in other population data sets are required to clarify the association of the KCNN3 gene and migraine risk in the general outbred population.

Examining the stability of transport behaviours for high-risk early adolescents

Transport related injury is a leading cause of death and disability for adolescents and represents a substantial burden on public health and the community as a whole. Adolescents appear to have a growing risk of harm due to the co-existence of increasing alcohol use and engagement in risky transport behaviours. Understanding more about the development and stability of these behaviours by young adolescents over time could be beneficial in targeting transport injury prevention interventions for high-risk adolescents. In Australia alcohol use begins to increase significantly through the early and middle adolescent years even though the majority of these young people are still in school. Aim This paper reports on changes over a six month period in alcohol use, anger management experiences and transport risk taking behaviours including riding a bicycle without a helmet and under-age driving for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk early adolescents. Year 9 students (N=1,005) from 20 schools in Queensland, Australia completed a baseline survey in the first half of 2012 and at a six month follow up. Respondents at both times were asked about their engagement in risk taking behaviours measured by Mak’s adolescent delinquency scale, which included five transport related items. They were also asked to rate their alcohol use for the preceding three month period. The stability of these risk taking indicators was measured by comparing baseline results with the six month follow up. Results High-risk adolescents were more likely to report change in their alcohol use and transport behaviours when compared with non high-risk adolescents over a six month period. There were no significant changes in control of anger for either group. Demographic characteristics were not shown to have any significant effect on the stability of risk indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. Differences were found in the stability of risk taking indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. The findings of this paper have implications in targeting transport risk behaviour change interventions to meet the needs of high-risk adolescents.