Survival analysis statistics applied to threshold data obtained from the ascending forced-choice method of limits

Sensory thresholds are often collected through ascending forced-choice methods. Group thresholds are important for comparing stimuli or populations; yet, the method has two problems. An individual may correctly guess the correct answer at any concentration step and might detect correctly at low concentrations but become adapted or fatigued at higher concentrations. The survival analysis method deals with both issues. Individual sequences of incorrect and correct answers are adjusted, taking into account the group performance at each concentration. The technique reduces the chance probability where there are consecutive correct answers. Adjusted sequences are submitted to survival analysis to determine group thresholds. The technique was applied to an aroma threshold and a taste threshold study. It resulted in group thresholds similar to ASTM or logarithmic regression procedures. Significant differences in taste thresholds between younger and older adults were determined. The approach provides a more robust technique over previous estimation methods.

Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.

Samuel Beckett, the Gate Theatre Dublin, and the contemporary Irish independent theater sector: fragments of performance history

From 1991, when the Dublin Gate Theatre launched their Samuel Beckett Festival featuring nineteen of Beckett’s stage plays, to more recent years, the Gate dominated Irish productions of Beckett’s theater. The Gate Beckett Festival was remounted in 1996 at the Lincoln Center, New York, and at the Barbican Centre, London, in 1999, and individual or grouped productions have toured regularly since then in Ireland and internationally. However, since the Irish premiere of Waiting of Godot at the Pike Theatre in 1955, in addition to several Beckett plays mounted by the National Theatre, many independent Irish theater companies, such as Focus Theatre, Druid Theatre, and more recently Pan Pan Theatre, Blue Raincoat Theatre, The Corn Exchange, and Company SJ (under director Sarah Jane Scaife), have produced Beckett’s drama. While acknowledging earlier Irish productions, this essay will consider the role of the Dublin Gate Beckett Festival and the Beckett Centenary celebrations in Dublin in 2006 in greatly enhancing the marketability of Beckett’s work, and will discuss the proliferation of productions of Beckett’s stage plays (as opposed to stage adaptations of the prose work, which is a topic for another essay) in the independent theater sector in the Republic of Ireland since 2006. In addition to giving an overview of these recent productions, the essay will consider some issues at stake in creating or constructing performance histories

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set has been generated using the same methodology as the widely used WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) by making use of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We discuss the specifics of how changes in the reanalysis and processing have led to improvement over the WFD. We attribute improvements in precipitation and wind speed to the latest reanalysis basis data and improved downward shortwave fluxes to the changes in the aerosol corrections. Covering 1979–2012, the WFDEI will allow more thorough comparisons of hydrological and Earth System model outputs with hydrologically and phenologically relevant satellite products than using the WFD.

A single-column model ensemble approach applied to the TWP-ICE experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

Introducing children with special educational needs to theatre through ‘Relaxed Performances’

This short chapter explains how a growing number of theatres are beginning to offer families living with autism and other disabilities opportunities to attend without fear of alienation or rejection by other audience members. Using one small theatre as a case study, the chapter illustrates the sort of adaptations that are made to the performance and front of house arrangements.

Widening participation in theatre through ‘relaxed performances’

This paper what 'relaxed performances' are and how a growing number of theatres are beginning to offer them to families living with autism and other disabilities opportunities to attend without fear of alienation or rejection by other audience members. Using one small theatre as a case study, the chapter illustrates the sort of adaptations that are made to the performance and front of house arrangements and reports on the positive effects one particular relaxed performance had on some of those who attended.

‘Open sesame!’ How panto can pave the way for inclusion in theatre

This paper examines how ‘relaxed performances’ are being offered by an increasing number of mainstream theatres so children with complex individual needs and their families can enjoy the social and cultural experience of live theatre. The paper explains the origins of the relaxed performance initiative, what such performances entail and how they can contribute to both children’s learning and the cause of social justice. A case study is made of how one medium sized provincial theatre offered a relaxed performance of its annual pantomime in the 2013-14 season and the impact its subsequent 2014-15 production has had on families living with autistic spectrum disorder.