A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Effects of in situ CO2 enrichment on structural characteristics, photosynthesis, and growth of the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica

Seagrass is expected to benefit from increased carbon availability under future ocean acidification. This hypothesis has been little tested by in situ manipulation. To test for ocean acidification effects on seagrass meadows under controlled CO2/pH conditions, we used a Free Ocean Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FOCE) system which allows for the manipulation of pH as continuous offset from ambient. It was deployed in a Posidonia oceanica meadow at 11 m depth in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. It consisted of two benthic enclosures, an experimental and a control unit both 1.7 m**3, and an additional reference plot in the ambient environment (2 m**2) to account for structural artifacts. The meadow was monitored from April to November 2014. The pH of the experimental enclosure was lowered by 0.26 pH units for the second half of the 8-month study. The greatest magnitude of change in P. oceanica leaf biometrics, photosynthesis, and leaf growth accompanied seasonal changes recorded in the environment and values were similar between the two enclosures. Leaf thickness may change in response to lower pH but this requires further testing. Results are congruent with other short-term and natural studies that have investigated the response of P. oceanica over a wide range of pH. They suggest any benefit from ocean acidification, over the next century (at a pH of 7.7 on the total scale), on Posidonia physiology and growth may be minimal and difficult to detect without increased replication or longer experimental duration. The limited stimulation, which did not surpass any enclosure or seasonal effect, casts doubts on speculations that elevated CO2 would confer resistance to thermal stress and increase the buffering capacity of meadows.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and skeletal development, size, weight, total lipid and symbiont density of coral Favia fragum in a laboratory experiment

Ocean acidification (OA) threatens the existence of coral reefs by slowing the rate of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production of framework-building corals thus reducing the amount of CaCO3 the reef can produce to counteract natural dissolution. Some evidence exists to suggest that elevated levels of dissolved inorganic nutrients can reduce the impact of OA on coral calcification. Here, we investigated the potential for enhanced energetic status of juvenile corals, achieved via heterotrophic feeding, to modulate the negative impact of OA on calcification. Larvae of the common Atlantic golf ball coral, Favia fragum, were collected and reared for 3 weeks under ambient (421 µatm) or significantly elevated (1,311 µatm) CO2 conditions. The metamorphosed, zooxanthellate spat were either fed brine shrimp (i.e., received nutrition from photosynthesis plus heterotrophy) or not fed (i.e., primarily autotrophic). Regardless of CO2 condition, the skeletons of fed corals exhibited accelerated development of septal cycles and were larger than those of unfed corals. At each CO2 level, fed corals accreted more CaCO3 than unfed corals, and fed corals reared under 1,311 µatm CO2 accreted as much CaCO3 as unfed corals reared under ambient CO2. However, feeding did not alter the sensitivity of calcification to increased CO2; Delta calcification/Delta Omega was comparable for fed and unfed corals. Our results suggest that calcification rates of nutritionally replete juvenile corals will decline as OA intensifies over the course of this century. Critically, however, such corals could maintain higher rates of skeletal growth and CaCO3 production under OA than those in nutritionally limited environments.

First-year and second-year snow properties on sea ice in the Weddell Sea during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXII/2 (ISPOL) during the drift

Observations of snow properties, superimposed ice, and atmospheric heat fluxes have been performed on first-year and second-year sea ice in the western Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Snow in this region is particular as it does usually survive summer ablation. Measurements were performed during Ice Station Polarstern (ISPOL), a 5-week drift station of the German icebreaker RV Polarstern. Net heat flux to the snowpack was 8 W/m**2, causing only 0.1 to 0.2 m of thinning of both snow cover types, thinner first-year and thicker second-year snow. Snow thinning was dominated by compaction and evaporation, whereas melt was of minor importance and occurred only internally at or close to the surface. Characteristic differences between snow on first-year and second-year ice were found in snow thickness, temperature, and stratigraphy. Snow on second-year ice was thicker, colder, denser, and more layered than on first-year ice. Metamorphism and ablation, and thus mass balance, were similar between both regimes, because they depend more on surface heat fluxes and less on underground properties. Ice freeboard was mostly negative, but flooding occurred mainly on first-year ice. Snow and ice interface temperature did not reach the melting point during the observation period. Nevertheless, formation of discontinuous superimposed ice was observed. Color tracer experiments suggest considerable meltwater percolation within the snow, despite below-melting temperatures of lower layers. Strong meridional gradients of snow and sea-ice properties were found in this region. They suggest similar gradients in atmospheric and oceanographic conditions and implicate their importance for melt processes and the location of the summer ice edge.

Suspended paticulate matter and respiration experiments of Laternula elliptica in Potter Cove, King George Island, Western Antarctic Peninsula

Recent rapid changes of air temperature on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula results in increased sediment discharge and ice scouring frequencies in coastal regions. These changes are bound to especially affect slow growing, sessile filter feeders such as the Antarctic bivalve, Laternula elliptica, a long-lived and abundant key species with circumpolar distribution. We investigated the effect of sedimentation and ice scouring on small/young and large/old individuals at two closely located stations, distinctly influenced by both types of disturbance. Small individuals dealt better with disturbance in terms of their respiratory response to sediment exposure, reburrowing ability, and survival after injury, compared to larger animals. At the more disturbed station L. elliptica population density was lower, but larger animals reburrowed faster after iceberg disturbance and reduced their metabolic rate under strong sediment coverage, compared to larger animals of the less disturbed station, indicating that an adaptation or learning response to both types of disturbance may be possible. Smaller individuals were not influenced. Laternula elliptica seems capable of coping with the rapidly changing environmental conditions. Due to a decrease in population density and mean population lifespan, L. elliptica could however lose its key role in the bentho-pelagic carbon flux in areas of high sediment deposition.

Distribution, density and abundance of Antarctic ice seals off Queen Maud Land and the eastern Weddell Sea

The Antarctic Pack Ice Seal (APIS) Program was initiated in 1994 to estimate the abundance of four species of Antarctic phocids: the crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophaga, Weddell seal Leptonychotes weddellii, Ross seal Ommatophoca rossii and leopard seal Hydrurga leptonyx and to identify ecological relationships and habitat use patterns. The Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean (the eastern sector of the Weddell Sea) was surveyed by research teams from Germany, Norway and South Africa using a range of aerial methods over five austral summers between 1996-1997 and 2000-2001. We used these observations to model densities of seals in the area, taking into account haul-out probabilities, survey-specific sighting probabilities and covariates derived from satellite-based ice concentrations and bathymetry. These models predicted the total abundance over the area bounded by the surveys (30°W and 10°E). In this sector of the coast, we estimated seal abundances of: 514 (95 % CI 337-886) x 10**3 crabeater seals, 60.0 (43.2-94.4) x 10**3 Weddell seals and 13.2 (5.50-39.7) x 10**3 leopard seals. The crabeater seal densities, approximately 14,000 seals per degree longitude, are similar to estimates obtained by surveys in the Pacific and Indian sectors by other APIS researchers. Very few Ross seals were observed (24 total), leading to a conservative estimate of 830 (119-2894) individuals over the study area. These results provide an important baseline against which to compare future changes in seal distribution and abundance.

Age, 232Th, 230Th, 238U, CaCO3, organic carbon, lithogenic fraction and opal concentrations of 4 sediment cores from the southwest Pacific, with calculated 230Th-normalized mass flux

No clear scenario has yet been able to explain the full carbon drawdown that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); however, increased export production (EP) in the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ) of the Southern Ocean due to iron (Fe) fertilisation has been proposed to have provided a key mechanism affecting the air-sea partitioning of carbon. We chronicle changes in marine EP based on four sediment cores in Subtropical Waters (STW) and SAZ around New Zealand since the LGM. For the first time in this region, we present 230-Thorium normalised fluxes of biogenic opal, carbonate (CaCO3), excess Barium (xsBa), and organic Carbon (Corg). In STW and SAZ, these flux variations show that EP did not change markedly since the LGM. The only exception was a site in the SAZ close to the STF, where we suggest the STF shifted over the core site, driving increased EP. To understand why EP was mostly low and constant we investigated dust deposition changes by measuring lithogenic fluxes at the four sites. These data are coherent with an increased dust deposition in the southwest Pacific during the LGM. Additionally, we infer an increased lithogenic material discharge from erosion and glacier melts during the deglaciation, limited to the Campbell Plateau. Therefore, we propose that even though increased glacial dust deposition may have relieved Fe limitation within the SAZ, the availability of silicic acid (Si(OH)4) limited any resultant increase in carbon export during the LGM. Consequently, we infer low Si(OH)4 concentrations in the SAZ that have not significantly changed since the LGM. This result suggests that both Si(OH)4 and Fe co-limit EP in the SAZ around New Zealand, which would be consistent with modern process studies.

Stochastically forced dislocation density distribution in plastic deformation

The dynamical evolution of dislocations in plastically deformed metals is controlled by both deterministic factors arising out of applied loads and stochastic effects appearing due to fluctuations of internal stress. Such type of stochastic dislocation processes and the associated spatially inhomogeneous modes lead to randomness in the observed deformation structure. Previous studies have analyzed the role of randomness in such textural evolution but none of these models have considered the impact of a finite decay time (all previous models assumed instantaneous relaxation which is "unphysical") of the stochastic perturbations in the overall dynamics of the system. The present article bridges this knowledge gap by introducing a colored noise in the form of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise in the analysis of a class of linear and nonlinear Wiener and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes that these structural dislocation dynamics could be mapped on to. Based on an analysis of the relevant Fokker-Planck model, our results show that linear Wiener processes remain unaffected by the second time scale in the problem but all nonlinear processes, both Wiener type and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, scale as a function of the noise decay time τ. The results are expected to ramify existing experimental observations and inspire new numerical and laboratory tests to gain further insight into the competition between deterministic and random effects in modeling plastically deformed samples.

Hybrid density functional theory description of N- and C-doping of NiO

The large intrinsic bandgap of NiO hinders its potential application as a photocatalyst under visible-light irradiation. In this study, we have performed first-principles screened exchange hybrid density functional theory with the HSE06 functional calculations of N- and C-doped NiO to investigate the effect of doping on the electronic structure of NiO. C-doping at an oxygen site induces gap states due to the dopant, the positions of which suggest that the top of the valence band is made up primarily of C 2p-derived states with some Ni 3d contributions, and the lowest-energy empty state is in the middle of the gap. This leads to an effective bandgap of 1.7 eV, which is of potential interest for photocatalytic applications. N-doping induces comparatively little dopant-Ni 3d interactions, but results in similar positions of dopant-induced states, i.e., the top of the valence band is made up of dopant 2p states and the lowest unoccupied state is the empty gap state derived from the dopant, leading to bandgap narrowing. With the hybrid density functional theory (DFT) results available, we discuss issues with the DFT corrected for on-site Coulomb description of these systems.

Bridging the Scale Gap from Leaf to Canopy in Biosphere-Atmosphere Gas and Particle Exchanges

Terrestrial ecosystems, occupying more than 25% of the Earth's surface, can serve as

`biological valves' in regulating the anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric aerosol

particles and greenhouse gases (GHGs) as responses to their surrounding environments.

While the signicance of quantifying the exchange rates of GHGs and atmospheric

aerosol particles between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is

hardly questioned in many scientic elds, the progress in improving model predictability,

data interpretation or the combination of the two remains impeded by

the lack of precise framework elucidating their dynamic transport processes over a

wide range of spatiotemporal scales. The diculty in developing prognostic modeling

tools to quantify the source or sink strength of these atmospheric substances

can be further magnied by the fact that the climate system is also sensitive to the

feedback from terrestrial ecosystems forming the so-called `feedback cycle'. Hence,

the emergent need is to reduce uncertainties when assessing this complex and dynamic

feedback cycle that is necessary to support the decisions of mitigation and

adaptation policies associated with human activities (e.g., anthropogenic emission

controls and land use managements) under current and future climate regimes.

With the goal to improve the predictions for the biosphere-atmosphere exchange

of biologically active gases and atmospheric aerosol particles, the main focus of this

dissertation is on revising and up-scaling the biotic and abiotic transport processes

from leaf to canopy scales. The validity of previous modeling studies in determining

iv

the exchange rate of gases and particles is evaluated with detailed descriptions of their

limitations. Mechanistic-based modeling approaches along with empirical studies

across dierent scales are employed to rene the mathematical descriptions of surface

conductance responsible for gas and particle exchanges as commonly adopted by all

operational models. Specically, how variation in horizontal leaf area density within

the vegetated medium, leaf size and leaf microroughness impact the aerodynamic attributes

and thereby the ultrane particle collection eciency at the leaf/branch scale

is explored using wind tunnel experiments with interpretations by a porous media

model and a scaling analysis. A multi-layered and size-resolved second-order closure

model combined with particle

uxes and concentration measurements within and

above a forest is used to explore the particle transport processes within the canopy

sub-layer and the partitioning of particle deposition onto canopy medium and forest

oor. For gases, a modeling framework accounting for the leaf-level boundary layer

eects on the stomatal pathway for gas exchange is proposed and combined with sap

ux measurements in a wind tunnel to assess how leaf-level transpiration varies with

increasing wind speed. How exogenous environmental conditions and endogenous

soil-root-stem-leaf hydraulic and eco-physiological properties impact the above- and

below-ground water dynamics in the soil-plant system and shape plant responses

to droughts is assessed by a porous media model that accommodates the transient

water

ow within the plant vascular system and is coupled with the aforementioned

leaf-level gas exchange model and soil-root interaction model. It should be noted

that tackling all aspects of potential issues causing uncertainties in forecasting the

feedback cycle between terrestrial ecosystem and the climate is unrealistic in a single

dissertation but further research questions and opportunities based on the foundation

derived from this dissertation are also brie

y discussed.

Table 3.5 Content and composition of air in fresh ice

Natural ice is formed by freezing of water or by sintering of dry or wet snow. Each of these processes causes atmospheric air to be enclosed in ice as bubbles. The air amount and composition as well as the bubble sizes and density depend not only on the kind of process but also on several environmental conditions. The ice in the deepest layers of the Greenland and thc Antarctic ice sheet was formed more than 100 000 years ago. In the bubbles of this ice, samples of atmospheric air from that time are preserved. The enclosure of air is discussed for each of the three processes. Of special interest are the parameters which control the amount and composition of the enclosed air. If the ice is formed by sintering of very cold dry snow, the air composition in the bubbles corresponds with good accuracy to the composition of atmospheric air.

Antarctic free-air and complete Bouguer gravity anomaly grid

Gravity surveying is challenging in Antarctica because of its hostile environment and inaccessibility. Nevertheless, many ground-based, airborne and shipborne gravity campaigns have been completed by the geophysical and geodetic communities since the 1980s. We present the first modern Antarctic-wide gravity data compilation derived from 13 million data points covering an area of 10 million km**2, which corresponds to 73% coverage of the continent. The remove-compute-restore technique was applied for gridding, which facilitated levelling of the different gravity datasets with respect to an Earth Gravity Model derived from satellite data alone. The resulting free-air and Bouguer gravity anomaly grids of 10 km resolution are publicly available. These grids will enable new high-resolution combined Earth Gravity Models to be derived and represent a major step forward towards solving the geodetic polar data gap problem. They provide a new tool to investigate continental-scale lithospheric structure and geological evolution of Antarctica.

Physical oceanography, pore water chemistry and water column methane turover rates during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXIX/4

Recent studies have suggested that the marine contribution of methane from shallow regions and melting marine terminating glaciers may have been underestimated. Here we report on methane sources and potential sinks associated with methane seeps in Cumberland Bay, South Georgia's largest fjord system. The average organic carbon content in the upper 8 meters of the sediment is around 0.65 wt.%; this observation combined with Parasound data suggest that the methane gas accumulations probably originate from peat-bearing sediments currently located several tens of meters below the seafloor. Only one of our cores indicates upward advection; instead most of the methane is transported via diffusion. Sulfate and methane flux estimates indicate that a large fraction of methane is consumed by anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). Carbon cycling at the sulfate-methane transition (SMT) results in a marked fractionation of the d13C-CH4 from an estimated source value of -65 per mil to a value as low as -96 per mil just below the SMT. Methane concentrations in sediments are high, especially close to the seepage sites (~40 mM); however, concentrations in the water column are relatively low (max. 58 nM) and can be observed only close to the seafloor. Methane is trapped in the lowermost water mass, however, measured microbial oxidation rates reveal very low activity with an average turnover of 3.1 years. We therefore infer that methane must be transported out of the bay in the bottom water layer. A mean sea-air flux of only 0.005 nM/m²/s confirms that almost no methane reaches the atmosphere.