Uncertainty propagation in the model web:a case study with e-Habitat

eHabitat is a Web Processing Service (WPS) designed to compute the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties. Inputs to the WPS, typically thematic geospatial "layers", can be discovered using standardised catalogues, and the outputs tailored to specific end user needs. Because these layers can range from geophysical data captured through remote sensing to socio-economical indicators, eHabitat is exposed to a broad range of different types and levels of uncertainties. Potentially chained to other services to perform ecological forecasting, for example, eHabitat would be an additional component further propagating uncertainties from a potentially long chain of model services. This integration of complex resources increases the challenges in dealing with uncertainty. For such a system, as envisaged by initiatives such as the "Model Web" from the Group on Earth Observations, to be used for policy or decision making, users must be provided with information on the quality of the outputs since all system components will be subject to uncertainty. UncertWeb will create the Uncertainty-Enabled Model Web by promoting interoperability between data and models with quantified uncertainty, building on existing open, international standards. It is the objective of this paper to illustrate a few key ideas behind UncertWeb using eHabitat to discuss the main types of uncertainties the WPS has to deal with and to present the benefits of the use of the UncertWeb framework.

Stylization: a method for preserving the character of climate sensitive habitat

Stylization is a method of ornamental plant use usually applied in urban open space and garden design based on aesthetic consideration. Stylization can be seen as a nature-imitating ornamental plant application which evokes the scenery rather than an ecological plant application which assists the processes and functions observed in the nature. From a different point of view, stylization of natural or semi-natural habitats can sometimes serve as a method for preserving the physiognomy of the plant associations that may be affected by the climate change of the 21st century. The vulnerability of the Hungarian habitats has thus far been examined by the researchers only from the botanical point of view but not in terms of its landscape design value. In Hungary coniferous forests are edaphic and classified on this basis. The General National Habitat Classification System (Á-NÉR) distinguishes calcareous Scots pine forests and acidofrequent coniferous forests. The latter seems to be highly sensitive to climate change according to ecological models. The physiognomy and species pool of its subtypes are strongly determined by the dominant coniferous species that can be Norway spruce (Picea abies) or Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). We are going to discuss the methodology of stylization of climate sensitive habitats and briefly refer to acidofrequent coniferous forests as a case study. In the course of stylization those coniferous and deciduous tree species of the studied habitat that are water demanding should be substituted by drought tolerant ones with similar characteristics. A list of the proposed taxa is going to be given.

Habitat use and foraging ecology of a batoid community in Shark Bay, Western Australia

Worldwide declines in populations of large elasmobranchs and the potential cascading effects on marine ecosystems have garnered considerable attention. Far less appreciated are the potential ecological impacts of changes in abundances of small to medium bodied elasmobranchs mesopredators. Crucial to elucidating the role of these elasmobranchs is an understanding of their habitat use and foraging ecology in pristine conditions. I investigated the trophic interactions and factors driving spatiotemporal variation in abundances of elasmobranch mesopredators in the relatively pristine ecosystem of Shark Bay, Australia. First, I describe the species composition and seasonal habitat use patterns of elasmobranch mesopredator on the sandflats of Shark Bay. Juvenile batoids dominated this diverse community and were extremely abundant in nearshore microhabitats during the warm season. Stomach content analysis and stable isotopic analysis revealed that there is a large degree of dietary overlap between common batoid species. Crustaceans, which tend to be found in seagrass habitats, dominated diets. Despite isotopic differences between many species, overlap in isotopic niche space was high and there was some degree of individual specialization. I then, investigated the importance of abiotic (temperature and water depth) and biotic (prey and predator abundance) factors in shaping batoid habitat use. Batoids were most abundant and tended to rest in shallow nearshore waters when temperatures were high. This pattern coincides with periods of large shark abundance suggesting batoids were seeking refuge from predators rather than selecting optimal temperatures. Finally, I used acoustic telemetry to examine batoid residency and diel use of the sandflats. Individual batoids were present on the sandflats during both the warm and cold seasons and throughout the diel cycle, suggesting lower sandflat densities during the cold season were a result of habitat shifts rather than migration out of Shark Bay. Combined, habitat use and dietary results suggest that batoids have the potential to seasonally impact sandflat dynamics through their presence, although foraging may be limited on the sandflats. Interestingly, my results suggest that elasmobranch mesopredators in pristine ecosystems probably are not regulated by food supply and their habitat use patterns and perhaps ecosystem impacts may be influenced by their predators.

Does variation in movement tactics and trophic interactions among American alligators create habitat linkages?

1. Highly mobile top predators are hypothesized to spatially and/or temporally link disparate habitats through the combination of their movement and feeding patterns, but recent studies suggest that individual specialization in habitat use and feeding could keep habitats compartmentalized. 2.  We used passive acoustic telemetry and stable isotope analysis to investigate whether specialization in movement and feeding patterns of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in an oligotrophic subtropical estuary created habitat linkages between marine and estuarine/freshwater food webs. 3.  Individual alligators adopted one of the three relatively distinct movement tactics that were linked to variation in diets. Fifty-six per cent of alligators regularly travelled from the upstream (freshwater/mid-estuary) areas into the downstream (marine-influenced) areas where salinities exceed those typically tolerated by alligators. Thirty-one per cent of the alligators made regular trips from the mid-estuarine habitat into the upstream habitat; 13% remained in the mid-estuary zone year-round. 4.  Stable isotopic analysis indicated that, unlike individuals remaining in the mid-estuary and upstream zones, alligators that used the downstream zone fed at least partially from marine food webs and likely moved to access higher prey abundance at the expense of salt stress. Therefore, ‘commuting’ alligators may link marine food webs with those of the estuary and marshes in the coastal Everglades and create an upstream vector for allochthonous nutrient inputs into the estuary. 5.  This study lends further support to the hypothesis that large-bodied highly mobile predators faced with trade-offs are likely to exhibit individual specialization leading to habitat linkages, rather than compartmentalization. However, the conditions under which this scenario occurs require further investigation.

Influence of habitat on the reproductive ecology of the Amazonian palm, Mauritia flexuosa, in Roraima, Brazil

Although Mauritia flexuosa (Arecaceae) plays a pivotal role in the ecology and economy of the Amazon, and occurs in a variety of habitats, little is known about the influence of habitat on the reproductive biology of this palm. My dissertation focuses on the reproductive biology of M. flexuosa in three habitats in Roraima, Brazil: undisturbed forest, undisturbed forest-savanna ecotone, and savanna disturbed by plantations of the exotic tree, Acacia mangium. First, I calculated sex ratios and linked precipitation patterns with phenology. Sex ratios were female-biased. Precipitation was negatively associated with flowering, and positively associated with fruiting. Habitat appears to have no significant influence on phenology of M. flexuosa, although short-term climate variation may affect phenology of this species. Second, I examined floral biology, observed floral visitors, and performed exclusion experiments to determine the pollination system of M. flexuosa. Fruit set did not differ significantly between the visitor exclusion treatment and the control, but was significantly lowest in the wind + visitor exclusion treatment, suggesting that this dioecious palm is anemophilous, independent of habitat. Third, I identified the abiotic and biotic factors explaining variation in fruit mass, seed mass, seed number per fruit, and total fruit yield among habitats. Soil moisture and flooding during the wet season were the best predictors of fruit and seed output. The number of leaves, diameter at breast height, and height were all accurate predictors of reproductive output, but crown volume did not accurately predict fruit yields. Results re-evaluate traditional assumptions about wind-pollination in the tropics, and highlight abiotic and biotic factors responsible for variation in reproductive output of M. flexuosa, with implications for effective management of this palm. Finally, I interviewed harvesters and vendors to document the traditional knowledge and market dynamics of the fruit of M. flexuosa, buriti. Traditional knowledge corroborated results from scientific studies. Vendors argued that the price of buriti must increase, and must fluctuate with varying supply. With appropriate economic incentives to vendors/harvesters, Roraima may expand its market infrastructure for buriti, effectively stimulating the regional economy and practicing sustainable harvesting.

Does landscape context affect habitat value? The importance of seascape ecology in back-reef systems

Seascape ecology provides a useful framework from which to understand the processes governing spatial variability in ecological patterns. Seascape context, or the composition and pattern of habitat surrounding a focal patch, has the potential to impact resource availability, predator-prey interactions, and connectivity with other habitats. For my dissertation research, I combined a variety of approaches to examine how habitat quality for fishes is influenced by a diverse range of seascape factors in sub-tropical, back-reef ecosystems. In the first part of my dissertation, I examined how seascape context can affect reef fish communities on an experimental array of artificial reefs created in various seascape contexts in Abaco, Bahamas. I found that the amount of seagrass at large spatial scales was an important predictor of community assembly on these reefs. Additionally, seascape context had differing effects on various aspects of habitat quality for the most common reef species, White grunt Haemulon plumierii. The amount of seagrass at large spatial scales had positive effects on fish abundance and secondary production, but not on metrics of condition and growth. The second part of my dissertation focused on how foraging conditions for fish varied across a linear seascape gradient in the Loxahatchee River estuary in Florida, USA. Gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus, traded food quality for quantity along this estuarine gradient, maintaining similar growth rates and condition among sites. Additional work focused on identifying major energy flow pathways to two consumers in oyster-reef food webs in the Loxahatchee. Algal and microphytobenthos resource pools supported most of the production to these consumers, and body size for one of the consumers mediated food web linkages with surrounding mangrove habitats. All of these studies examined a different facet of the importance of seascape context in governing ecological processes occurring in focal habitats and underscore the role of connectivity among habitats in back-reef systems. The results suggest that management approaches consider the surrounding seascape when prioritizing areas for conservation or attempting to understand the impacts of seascape change on focal habitat patches. For this reason, spatially-based management approaches are recommended to most effectively manage back-reef systems.

Microhabitat Selection by Marine Mesoconsumers in a Thermally Heterogeneous Habitat: Behavioral Thermoregulation or Avoiding Predation Risk?

Habitat selection decisions by consumers has the potential to shape ecosystems. Understanding the factors that influence habitat selection is therefore critical to understanding ecosystem function. This is especially true of mesoconsumers because they provide the link between upper and lower tropic levels. We examined the factors influencing microhabitat selection of marine mesoconsumers – juvenile giant shovelnose rays (Glaucostegus typus), reticulate whiprays (Himantura uarnak), and pink whiprays (H. fai) – in a coastal ecosystem with intact predator and prey populations and marked spatial and temporal thermal heterogeneity. Using a combination of belt transects and data on water temperature, tidal height, prey abundance, predator abundance and ray behavior, we found that giant shovelnose rays and reticulate whiprays were most often found resting in nearshore microhabitats, especially at low tidal heights during the warm season. Microhabitat selection did not match predictions derived from distributions of prey. Although at a course scale, ray distributions appeared to match predictions of behavioral thermoregulation theory, fine-scale examination revealed a mismatch. The selection of the shallow nearshore microhabitat at low tidal heights during periods of high predator abundance (warm season) suggests that this microhabitat may serve as a refuge, although it may come with metabolic costs due to higher temperatures. The results of this study highlight the importance of predators in the habitat selection decisions of mesoconsumers and that within thermal gradients, factors, such as predation risk, must be considered in addition to behavioral thermoregulation to explain habitat selection decisions. Furthermore, increasing water temperatures predicted by climate change may result in complex trade-offs that might have important implications for ecosystem dynamics.

Characterization of Atlantic Cod Spawning Habitat and Behavior in Icelandic Coastal Waters

The physical habitat used during spawning may potentially be an important factor affecting reproductive output of broadcast spawning marine fishes, particularly for species with complex, substrate-oriented mating systems and behaviors, such as Atlantic cod Gadus morhua. We characterized the habitat use and behavior of spawning Atlantic cod at two locations off the coast of southwestern Iceland during a 2-d research cruise (15–16 April 2009). We simultaneously operated two different active hydroacoustic gear types, a split beam echosounder and a dual frequency imaging sonar (DIDSON), as well as a remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV). A total of five fish species were identified through ROV surveys: including cusk Brosme brosme, Atlantic cod, haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus, lemon sole Microstomus kitt, and Atlantic redfish Sebastes spp. Of the three habitats identified in the acoustic surveys, the transitional habitat between boulder/lava field and sand habitats was characterized by greater fish density and acoustic target strength compared to that of sand or boulder/lava field habitats independently. Atlantic cod were observed behaving in a manner consistent with published descriptions of spawning. Individuals were observed ascending 1–5 m into the water column from the bottom at an average vertical swimming speed of 0.20–0.25 m s−1 and maintained an average spacing of 1.0–1.4 m between individuals. Our results suggest that cod do not choose spawning locations indiscriminately despite the fact that it is a broadcast spawning fish with planktonic eggs that are released well above the seafloor.

Turning Passive Detection Systems into Field Experiments: An Application Using Wetland Fishes and Enclosures to Track Fine-Scale Movement and Habitat Choice

Understanding habitat selection and movement remains a key question in behavioral ecology. Yet, obtaining a sufficiently high spatiotemporal resolution of the movement paths of organisms remains a major challenge, despite recent technological advances. Observing fine-scale movement and habitat choice decisions in the field can prove to be difficult and expensive, particularly in expansive habitats such as wetlands. We describe the application of passive integrated transponder (PIT) systems to field enclosures for tracking detailed fish behaviors in an experimental setting. PIT systems have been applied to habitats with clear passageways, at fixed locations or in controlled laboratory and mesocosm settings, but their use in unconfined habitats and field-based experimental setups remains limited. In an Everglades enclosure, we continuously tracked the movement and habitat use of PIT-tagged centrarchids across three habitats of varying depth and complexity using multiple flatbed antennas for 14 days. Fish used all three habitats, with marked species-specific diel movement patterns across habitats, and short-lived movements that would be likely missed by other tracking techniques. Findings suggest that the application of PIT systems to field enclosures can be an insightful approach for gaining continuous, undisturbed and detailed movement data in unconfined habitats, and for experimentally manipulating both internal and external drivers of these behaviors.

Intra-Population Variation in Activity Ranges, Diel Patterns, Movement Rates, and Habitat Use of American Alligators in a Subtropical Estuary

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intra-population variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

Effect of Hydrologic Restoration on the Habitat of The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow, Annual Report of 2002-2003

After developing field sampling protocols and making a series of consultations with investigators involved in research in CSSS habitat, we determined that vegetationhydrology interactions within this landscape are best sampled at a combination of scales. At the finer scale, we decided to sample at 100 m intervals along transects that cross the range of habitats present, and at the coarser scale, to conduct an extensive survey of vegetation at sites of known sparrow density dispersed throughout the range of the CSSS. We initiated sampling in the first week of January 2003 and continued it through the last week of May. During this period, we established 6 transects, one in each CSSS subpopulation, completed topographic survey along the Transects A, C, D, and F, and sampled herb and shrub stratum vegetation, soil depth and periphyton along Transects A, and at 179 census points. We also conducted topographic surveys and completed vegetation and soil depth sampling along two of five transects used by ENP researchers for monitoring long-term vegetation change in Taylor Slough. We analyzed the data by summarizing the compositional and structural measures and by using cluster analysis, ordination, weighted averaging regression, and weighted averaging calibration. The mean elevation of transects decreased from north to south, and Transect F had greater variation than other transects. We identified eight vegetation assemblages that can be grouped into two broad categories, ‘wet prairie’ and ‘marsh’. In the 2003 survey, wet prairies were most dominant in the northeastern sub-populations, and had shorter inferred-hydroperiod, higher species richness and shallower soils than marshes, which were common in Subpopulations A, D, and the southernmost regions of Sub-population B. Most of the sites at which birds were observed during 2001 or 2002 had an inferred-hydroperiod of 120-150 days, while no birds were observed at sites with an inferred-hydroperiod less than 120 days or more than 300 days. Management-induced water level changes in Taylor Slought during the 1980’s and 1990’s appeared to elicit parallel changes in vegetation. The results described in detail in the following pages serve as a basis for evaluating and modifying, if necessary, the sampling design and analytical techniques to be used in the next three years of the project.

Effect of Hydrologic Restoration on the Habitat of The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow, Annual Report of 2003-2004

Following on our previous year’s work on ‘Effect of hydrologic restoration on the habitat of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS)’, we presented first year results at the Cape Sable seaside sparrow – fire planning workshop at Everglades National Park in December 2003. Later, with almost the same set of crews as in the previous year, we started field work in the first week of January and continued till May 26, 2004. Protocols for sampling topography and vegetation in 2004 were identical to the previous year. In the early season, we completed topographic surveys along two remaining transects, B and E (~16.5 km), and vegetation surveys along three transects, D, E and F (~10.8 km), leaving only the vegetation sampling on transects B and C to be completed in 2005. During April and May, vegetation sampling was completed at 230 census sites, making the total of 409 CSSS census sites for which we have complete vegetation data. We updated data sets from both 2003 and 2004, and analyzed them together using cluster analysis, ordination, weighted-averaging regression and analysis of variance, as we had in 2003. Additionally, we used logistic regression to examine the effect of vegetation structural parameters on the recent occurrence of CSSS. We also analyzed vegetation observations recorded by the sparrow census team in 1981 and annually between 1992 and 2004 to assess historical patterns of vegetation change in CSSS habitat.

Effect of Hydrologic Restoration on the Habitat of The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow, Annual Report of 2004-2005

The major activities in Year 3 on ‘Effect of hydrologic restoration on the habitat of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS)’ included presentations, field work, data analysis, and report preparation. During this period, we made 4 presentations, two at the CSSS – fire planning workshops at Everglades National Park (ENP), one at the Society of Wetland Scientists’ meeting in Charleston, SC, and a fourth at the Marl Prairie/CSSS performance measure workshop at ENP. We started field work in the third week of January and continued till June 3, 2005. Early in the field season, we completed vegetation surveys along two transects, B and C (~15.1 km). During April and May, vegetation sampling was completed at 199 census sites, bringing to 608 the total number of CSSS census sites with quantitative vegetation data. We updated data sets from all three years, 2003-05, and analyzed them using cluster analysis and ordination as in previous two years. However, instead of weighted averaging, we used weighted-averaging partial least square regression (WA-PLS) model, as this method is considered an improvement over WA for inferring values of environmental variables from biological species composition. We also validated the predictive power of the WA-PLS regression model by applying it to a sub-set of 100 census sites for which hydroperiods were “known” from two sources, i.e., from elevations calculated from concurrent water depth measurements onsite and at nearby water level recorders, and from USGS digital elevation data. Additionally, we collected biomass samples at 88 census sites, and determined live and dead aboveground plant biomass. Using vegetation structure and biomass data from those sites, we developed a regression model that we used to predict aboveground biomass at all transects and census sites. Finally, biomass data was analyzed in relation to hydroperiod and fire frequency.