Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. II. Distribution and diet

This study used faecal pellets to investigate the broadscale distribution and diet of koalas in the mulgalands biogeographic region of south-west Queensland. Koala distribution was determined by conducting faecal pellet searches within a 30-cm radius of the base of eucalypts on 149 belt transects, located using a multi-scaled stratified sampling design. Cuticular analysis of pellets collected ffom 22 of these sites was conducted to identify the dietary composition of koalas within the region. Our data suggest that koala distribution is concentrated in the northern and more easterly regions of the study area, and appears to be strongly linked with annual rainfall. Over 50% of our koala records were obtained from non-riverine communities, indicating that koalas in the study area are not primarily restricted to riverine communities, as bas frequently been suggested. Cuticular analysis indicates that more than 90% of koala diet within the region consists of five eucalypt species. Our data highlights the importance of residual Tertiary landforms to koala conservation in the region.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. IV. Abundance and conservation status

Urban encroachment on dense, coastal koala populations has ensured that their management has received increasing government and public attention. The recently developed National Koala Conservation Strategy calls for maintenance of viable populations in the wild. Yet the success of this, and other, conservation initiatives is hampered by lack of reliable and generally accepted national and regional population estimates. In this paper we address this problem in a potentially large, but poorly studied, regional population in the State that is likely to have the largest wild populations. We draw on findings from previous reports in this series and apply the faecal standing-crop method (FSCM) to derive a regional estimate of more than 59 000 individuals. Validation trials in riverine communities showed that estimates of animal density obtained from the FSCM and direct observation were in close agreement. Bootstrapping and Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain variance estimates for our population estimates in different vegetation associations across the region. The most favoured habitat was riverine vegetation, which covered only 0.9% of the region but supported 45% of the koalas. We also estimated that between 1969 and 1995 -30% of the native vegetation associations that are considered as potential koala habitat were cleared, leading to a decline of perhaps 10% in koala numbers. Management of this large regional population has significant implications for the national conservation of the species: the continued viability of this population is critically dependent on the retention and management of riverine and residual vegetation communities, and future vegetation-management guidelines should be cognisant of the potential impacts of clearing even small areas of critical habitat. We also highlight eight management implications.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

ESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN AN EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED IN A DECIDUOUS FOREST OF SOUTH INDIA

Forested areas play a dominant role in the global hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration is a dominant component most of the time catching up with the rainfall. Though there are sophisticated methods which are available for its estimation, a simple reliable tool is needed so that a good budgeting could be made. Studies have established that evapotranspiration in forested areas is much higher than in agricultural areas. Latitude, type of forests, climate and geological characteristics also add to the complexity of its estimation. Few studies have compared different methods of evapotranspiration on forested watersheds in semi arid tropical forests. In this paper a comparative study of different methods of estimation of evapotranspiration is made with reference to the actual measurements made using all parameter climatological station data of a small deciduous forested watershed of Mulehole (area of 4.5 km2 ), South India. Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) was calculated using ten physically based and empirical methods. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been calculated through computation of water balance through SWAT model. The Penman-Montieth method has been used as a benchmark to compare the estimates arrived at using various methods. The AET calculated shows good agreement with the curve for evapotranspiration for forests worldwide. Error estimates have been made with respect to Penman-Montieth method. This study could give an idea of the errors involved whenever methods with limited data are used and also show the use indirect methods in estimation of Evapotranspiration which is more suitable for regional scale studies.

Zero tillage and nitrogen fertiliser application in wheat and barley on a Vertosol in a marginal cropping area of south-west Queensland

Winter cereal cropping is marginal in south-west Queensland because of low and variable rainfall and declining soil fertility. Increasing the soil water storage and the efficiency of water and nitrogen (N) use is essential for sustainable cereal production. The effect of zero tillage and N fertiliser application on these factors was evaluated in wheat and barley from 1996 to 2001 on a grey Vertosol. Annual rainfall was above average in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 and below average in 2000 and 2001. Due to drought, no crop was grown in the 2000 winter cropping season. Zero tillage improved fallow soil water storage by a mean value of 20 mm over 4 years, compared with conventional tillage. However, mean grain yield and gross margin of wheat were similar under conventional and zero tillage. Wheat grain yield and/or grain protein increased with N fertiliser application in all years, resulting in an increase in mean gross margin over 5 years from $86/ha, with no N fertiliser applied, to $250/ha, with N applied to target ≥13% grain protein. A similar increase in gross margin occurred in barley where N fertiliser was applied to target malting grade. The highest N fertiliser application rate in wheat resulted in a residual benefit to soil N supply for the following crop. This study has shown that profitable responses to N fertiliser addition in wheat and barley can be obtained on long-term cultivated Vertosols in south-west Queensland when soil water reserves at sowing are at least 60% of plant available water capacity, or rainfall during the growing season is above average. An integrative benchmark for improved N fertiliser management appears to be the gross margin/water use of ~$1/ha.mm. Greater fallow soil water storage or crop water use efficiency under zero tillage has the potential to improve winter cereal production in drier growing seasons than experienced during the period of this study.

Kartel Convent (KC) Jewish fraternity at the University of Heidelberg; Heidelberg, Germany.

Thomas Krakauer's father, Hans Krakauer is second from left in the rear row.

Southern scallop (Pecten fumatus) microsatellite genotypes (fifteen loci) from eighteen locations along the coastline of south-eastern Australia

Microsatellite genotypes of individual scallops

Kartel Convent (KC) Jewish fraternity at the University of Heidelberg; Heidelberg, Germany.

Thomas Krakauer's father, Hans Krakauer is second from left in the rear row.

Concentration levels of heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in car parks at Queensland University of Technology

This study investigates the level of pollutants (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals) in three car parks at QUT, one at Kelvin Grove campus and two at the Gardens Point campus. In addition, comparisons between site designs were assessed to identify the possible sources of heavy metals and PAHs. The main contributing source for heavy metals was identified to be from vehicle debris and emissions, while the source of PAHs was identified to be from petrol and diesel engine vehicle emissions. The highest concentration of pollutants was typically found for the 63 micro meter dust samples, proposed to be due to increased surface areas and thus available adsorption sites.

A heterogeneous computing approach to simulation of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model

Stochastic volatility models are of fundamental importance to the pricing of derivatives. One of the most commonly used models of stochastic volatility is the Heston Model in which the price and volatility of an asset evolve as a pair of coupled stochastic differential equations. The computation of asset prices and volatilities involves the simulation of many sample trajectories with conditioning. The problem is treated using the method of particle filtering. While the simulation of a shower of particles is computationally expensive, each particle behaves independently making such simulations ideal for massively parallel heterogeneous computing platforms. In this paper, we present our portable Opencl implementation of the Heston model and discuss its performance and efficiency characteristics on a range of architectures including Intel cpus, Nvidia gpus, and Intel Many-Integrated-Core (mic) accelerators.

Book Review: "The Interface: IBM and the Transformation of Corporate Design, 1945-1975", John Harwood, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2011

Within the history of twentieth-century design, there are a number of well-known objects and stories that are invoked time and time again to capture a pivotal moment or summarize a much broader historical transition. For example, Marcel Breuer’s Model B3 chair is frequently used as a stand-in for the radical investigations of form and new industrial materials occurring at the Bauhaus in the mid-1920s. Similarly, Raymond Loewy’s streamlined pencil sharpener has become historical shorthand for the emergence of modern industrial design in the 1930s. And any discussion of the development of American postwar “organic design” seems incomplete without reference to Charles and Ray Eames’s molded plywood leg splint of 1942. Such objects and narratives are dear to historians of modern design. They are tangible, photogenic subjects that slot nicely into exhibitions, historical surveys, and coffee-table best sellers...

Molecular phylogeny and biogeography of langurs and leaf monkeys of South Asia (Primates: Colobinae)

The two recently proposed taxonomies of the langurs and leaf monkeys (Subfamily Colobinae) provide different implications to our understanding of the evolution of Nilgiri and purple-faced langurs. Groves (2001) [Groves, C.P., 2001. Primate Taxonomy. Smithsonian Institute Press, Washington], placed Nilgiri and purple-faced langurs in the genus Trachypithecus, thereby suggesting disjunct distribution of the genus Trachypithecus. [Brandon-Jones, D., Eudey, A.A., Geissmann, T., Groves, C.P., Melnick, D.J., Morales, J.C., Shekelle, M., Stewart, C.-B., 2003. Asian primate classification. Int. J. Primatol. 25, 97–162] placed these langurs in the genus Semnopithecus, which suggests convergence of morphological characters in Nilgiri and purple-faced langurs with Trachypithecus. To test these scenarios, we sequenced and analyzed the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and two nuclear DNA-encoded genes, lysozyme and protamine P1, from a variety of colobine species. All three markers support the clustering of Nilgiri and purple-faced langurs with Hanuman langur (Semnopithecus), while leaf monkeys of Southeast Asian (Trachypithecus) form a distinct clade. The phylogenetic position of capped and golden leaf monkeys is still unresolved. It is likely that this species group might have evolved due to past hybridization between Semnopithecus and Trachypithecus clades.

Modelling Cued-Target Recall using Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation

This article presents and evaluates Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation using Cued-Target Recall Memory Modelling over multiple sources of Free Association data. Two components were evaluated: Whether Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation would provide a better framework than their classical psychological counterparts and how robust these models are across the different sources of Free Association data. In previous work, a formal model of cued-target recall did not exist and as such Target Activation was unable to be assessed directly. Further to that, the data source used was suspected of suffering from temporal and geographical bias. As a consequence, Target Activation was measured against cued-target recall data as an approximation of performance. Since then, a formal model of cued-target recall (PIER3) has been developed [10] with alternative sources of data also becoming available. This allowed us to directly model target activation in cued-target recall with human cued-target recall pairs and use multiply sources of Free Association Data. Featural Characteristics known to be important to Target Activation were measured for each of the data sources to identify any major differences that may explain variations in performance for each of the models. Each of the activation models were used in the PIER3 memory model for each of the data sources and was benchmarked against cued-target recall pairs provided by the University of South Florida (USF). Two methods where used to evaluate performance. The first involved measuring the divergence between the sets of results using the Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence with the second utilizing a previous statistical analysis of the errors [9]. Of the three sources of data, two were sourced from human subjects being the USF Free Association Norms and the University of Leuven (UL) Free Association Networks. The third was sourced from a new method put forward by Galea and Bruza, 2015 in which pseudo Free Association Networks (Corpus Based Association Networks - CANs) are built using co-occurrence statistics on large text corpus. It was found that the Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation not only outperformed the classical psychological model but was more robust across a variety of data sources.