893 resultados para Two-stage MCMC method


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Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

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Objectives and study method: The objective of this study is to develop exact algorithms that can be used as management tools for the agricultural production planning and to obtain exact solutions for two of the most well known twodimensional packing problems: the strip packing problem and the bin packing problem. For the agricultural production planning problem we propose a new hierarchical scheme of three stages to improve the current agricultural practices. The objective of the first stage is to delineate rectangular and homogeneous management zones into the farmer’s plots considering the physical and chemical soil properties. This is an important task because the soil properties directly affect the agricultural production planning. The methodology for this stage is based on a new method called “Positions and Covering” that first generates all the possible positions in which the plot can be delineated. Then, we use a mathematical model of linear programming to obtain the optimal physical and chemical management zone delineation of the plot. In the second stage the objective is to determine the optimal crop pattern that maximizes the farmer’s profit taken into account the previous management zones delineation. In this case, the crop pattern is affected by both management zones delineation, physical and chemical. A mixed integer linear programming is used to solve this stage. The objective of the last stage is to determine in real-time the amount of water to irrigate in each crop. This stage takes as input the solution of the crop planning stage, the atmospheric conditions (temperature, radiation, etc.), the humidity level in plots, and the physical management zones of plots, just to name a few. This procedure is made in real-time during each irrigation period. A linear programming is used to solve this problem. A breakthrough happen when we realize that we could propose some adaptations of the P&C methodology to obtain optimal solutions for the two-dimensional packing problem and the strip packing. We empirically show that our methodologies are efficient on instances based on real data for both problems: agricultural and two-dimensional packing problems. Contributions and conclusions: The exact algorithms showed in this study can be used in the making-decision support for agricultural planning and twodimensional packing problems. For the agricultural planning problem, we show that the implementation of the new hierarchical approach can improve the farmer profit between 5.27% until 8.21% through the optimization of the natural resources. An important characteristic of this problem is that the soil properties (physical and chemical) and the real-time factors (climate, humidity level, evapotranspiration, etc.) are incorporated. With respect to the two-dimensional packing problems, one of the main contributions of this study is the fact that we have demonstrate that many of the best solutions founded in literature by others approaches (heuristics approaches) are the optimal solutions. This is very important because some of these solutions were up to now not guarantee to be the optimal solutions.

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Background: Evaluation of myocardial function by speckle-tracking echocardiography is a new method for the early diagnosis of systolic dysfunction. Objectives: We aimed to determine myocardial speckle-tracking echocardiography indices in Kawasaki Disease (KD) patients and compare them with the same indices in control subjects. Patients and Methods: Thirty-two patients (65.5% males) with KD and 19 control subjects with normal echocardiography participated in this study. After their demographic characteristics and clinical findings were recorded, all the participants underwent transthoracic echocardiography. Strain (S), Strain Rate (SR), Time to Peak Strain (TPS), and Strain Rate (TPSR), longitudinal velocity and view point velocity images in the two, three, and four-chamber views were semi-automatically obtained via speckle-tracking echocardiography. Results: Among the patients, Twenty-four cases (75%) were younger than 4 years. Mean global S and SR was significantly reduced in the KD patients compared to controls (17.03 ± 1.28 vs. 20.22 ± 2.14% and 1.66 ± 0.16 vs. 1.97 ± 0.25 1/second, respectively), while there were no significant differences regarding mean TPS, TPSR, longitudinal velocity and view point velocity. Using repeated measure of analysis of variances, we observed that S and SR decreased from base to apical level in both groups. The change in the pattern of age adjusted mean S and SR across levels was significantly different between the groups (P < 0.001 for both parameters). Conclusions: We showed changes in S and SR assessed in KD patients versus control subjects in the acute phase of KD. However, we suggest that further studies be undertaken to compare S and SR in the acute phase and thereafter in KD patients.

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Purpose: To develop and validate a simple, efficient and reliable Liquid chromatographic-mass spectrometric (LC-MS/MS) method for the quantitative determination of two dermatological drugs, Lamisil® (terbinafine) and Proscar® (finasteride), in split tablet dosage form. Methods: Thirty tablets each of the 2 studied medications were randomly selected. Tablets were weighed and divided into 3 groups. Ten tablets of each drug were kept intact, another group of 10 tablets were manually split into halves using a tablet cutter and weighed with an analytical balance; a third group were split into quarters and weighed. All intact and split tablets were individually dissolved in a water: methanol mixture (4:1), sonicated, filtered and further diluted with mobile phase. Optimal chromatographic separation and mass spectrometric detection were achieved using an Agilent 1200 HPLC system coupled with an Agilent 6410 triple quadrupole mass spectrometer. Analytes were eluted through an Agilent eclipse plus C8 analytical column (150 mm × 4.6 mm, 5 μm) with a mobile phase composed of solvent A (water) containing 0.1% formic acid and 5mM ammonium formate pH 7.5, and solvent B (acetonitrile mixed with water in a ratio A:B 55:45) at a flow rate of 0.8 mL min-1 with a total run time of 12 min. Mass spectrometric detection was carried out using positive ionization mode with analyte quantitation monitored by multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mode. Results: The proposed analytical method proved to be specific, robust and adequately sensitive. The results showed a good linear fit over the concentration range of 20 - 100 ng mL-1 for both analytes, with a correlation coefficient (r2) ≥ 0.999 and 0.998 for finasteride and terbinafine, respectively. Following tablet splitting, the drug content of the split tablets fell outside of the proxy USP specification for at least 14 halves (70 %) and 34 quarters (85 %) of FIN, as well as 16 halves (80 %) and 37 quarters (92.5 %) of TBN. Mean weight loss, after splitting, was 0.58 and 2.22 % for FIN half- and quarter tablets, respectively, and 3.96 and 4.09 % for TBN half- and quarter tablets,respectively. Conclusion: The proposed LC-MS/MS method has successfully been used to provide precise drug content uniformity of split tablets of FIN and TBN. Unequal distribution of the drug on the split tablets is indicated by the high standard deviation beyond the accepted value. Hence, it is recommended not to split non-scored tablets especially, for those medications with significant toxicity

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Aim: To investigate effects on men's health and well-being of higher prostate cancer (PCa) investigation and treatment levels in similar populations. Participants: PCa survivors in Ireland where the Republic of Ireland (RoI) has a 50% higher PCa incidence than Northern Ireland (NI). Method: A cross-sectional postal questionnaire was sent to PCa survivors 2–18 years post-treatment, seeking information about current physical effects of treatment, health-related quality of life (HRQoL; EORTC QLQ-C30; EQ-5D-5L) and psychological well-being (21 question version of the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale, DASS-21). Outcomes in RoI and NI survivors were compared, stratifying into ‘late disease’ (stage III/IV and any Gleason grade (GG) at diagnosis) and ‘early disease’ (stage I/II and GG 2–7). Responses were weighted by age, jurisdiction and time since diagnosis. Between-country differences were investigated using multivariate logistic and linear regression. Results: 3348 men responded (RoI n=2567; NI n=781; reflecting population sizes, response rate 54%). RoI responders were younger; less often had comorbidities (45% vs 38%); were more likely to present asymptomatically (66%; 41%) or with early disease (56%; 35%); and less often currently used androgen deprivation therapy (ADT; 2%; 28%). Current prevalence of incontinence (16%) and impotence (56% early disease, 67% late disease) did not differ between RoI and NI. In early disease, only current bowel problems (RoI 12%; NI 21%) differed significantly in multivariate analysis. In late disease, NI men reported significantly higher levels of gynaecomastia (23% vs 9%) and hot flashes(41% vs 19%), but when ADT users were analysed separately, differences disappeared. For HRQoL, in multivariate analysis, only pain (early disease: RoI 11.1, NI 19.4) and financial difficulties (late disease: RoI 10.4, NI 7.9) differed significantly between countries. There were no significant between-country differences in DASS-21 or index ED-5D-5L score. Conclusions: Treatment side effects were commonly reported and increased PCa detection in RoI has left more men with these side effects. We recommended that men be offered a PSA test only after informed discussion.

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The evaluation of the maturation in apple orchards is checked using destructive methods, sampling fruits and analyzing them in the laboratory, making the process slow and expensive. The use of not destructive method to determine fruit maturation in the orchard could accelerate delivery of results and help in determining harvest time, because non-destructive data would allow to verify the maturation on different blocks in the orchard. The aim of this work was to chart fruit maturation in 'Maxi Gala' grafted on two different rootstocks, using destructive and not destructive methods. The non-destructive method used was the portable DA-Meter. The trial was realized at Vacaria, southern Brazillocated 28,44 S and 50,85 W. The samples were harvested on two orchards during the seasons 2014/15 and 2015/16, during six weeks before harvest from January until the second week of February. The sampling was realized in five different points of the orchard, on rootstocks M.9 or Marubakaido with M.9 interstem. Ten-apple samples were collected weekly in each point in the orchard and then evaluated by destructive method (flesh firmness, starch degradation, total soluble solids and acidity) and the not destructive method (DA-Meter). For both seasons, the evolution of the fruit maturation of Maxi Gala showed a similar progression for both rootstocks. The non-destructive method correlated well with the traditional destructive methods, making it a tool for more practical and easy determination of the harvest date.

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Low-density nanostructured foams are often limited in applications due to their low mechanical and thermal stabilities. Here we report an approach of building the structural units of three-dimensional (3D) foams using hybrid two-dimensional (2D) atomic layers made of stacked graphene oxide layers reinforced with conformal hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) platelets. The ultra-low density (1/400 times density of graphite) 3D porous structures are scalably synthesized using solution processing method. A layered 3D foam structure forms due to presence of h-BN and significant improvements in the mechanical properties are observed for the hybrid foam structures, over a range of temperatures, compared with pristine graphene oxide or reduced graphene oxide foams. It is found that domains of h-BN layers on the graphene oxide framework help to reinforce the 2D structural units, providing the observed improvement in mechanical integrity of the 3D foam structure.

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To determine the most adequate number and size of tissue microarray (TMA) cores for pleomorphic adenoma immunohistochemical studies. Eighty-two pleomorphic adenoma cases were distributed in 3 TMA blocks assembled in triplicate containing 1.0-, 2.0-, and 3.0-mm cores. Immunohistochemical analysis against cytokeratin 7, Ki67, p63, and CD34 were performed and subsequently evaluated with PixelCount, nuclear, and microvessel software applications. The 1.0-mm TMA presented lower results than 2.0- and 3.0-mm TMAs versus conventional whole section slides. Possibly because of an increased amount of stromal tissue, 3.0-mm cores presented a higher microvessel density. Comparing the results obtained with one, two, and three 2.0-mm cores, there was no difference between triplicate or duplicate TMAs and a single-core TMA. Considering the possible loss of cylinders during immunohistochemical reactions, 2.0-mm TMAs in duplicate are a more reliable approach for pleomorphic adenoma immunohistochemical study.

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Different storage conditions can induce changes in the colour and carotenoid profiles and levels in some fruits. The goal of this work was to evaluate the influence of low temperature storage on the colour and carotenoid synthesis in two banana cultivars: Prata and Nanicão. For this purpose, the carotenoids from the banana pulp were determined by HPLC-DAD-MS/MS, and the colour of the banana skin was determined by a colorimeter method. Ten carotenoids were identified, of which the major carotenoids were all-trans-lutein, all-trans-α-carotene and all-trans-β-carotene in both cultivars. The effect of the low temperatures was subjected to linear regression analysis. In cv. Prata, all-trans-α-carotene and all-trans-β-carotene were significantly affected by low temperature (p<0.01), with negative estimated values (β coefficients) indicating that during cold storage conditions, the concentrations of these carotenoids tended to decrease. In cv. Nanicão, no carotenoid was significantly affected by cold storage (p>0.05). The accumulation of carotenoids in this group may be because the metabolic pathways using these carotenoids were affected by storage at low temperatures. The colour of the fruits was not negatively affected by the low temperatures (p>0.05).

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Perineural invasion (PNI) and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) have been associated with the risk of local recurrences and lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of PNI and LVI in patients with advanced stage squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth. One hundred and forty-two patients without previous treatment were selected. These patients underwent radical surgery with neck dissection and adjuvant treatment. Clinicopathological data were retrieved from the medical charts, including histopathology and surgery reports. Univariate analysis was performed to assess the impact of studied variables on survival. Overall survival was negatively influenced by six tumour-related factors: increasing T stage (P = 0.003), more than two clinically positive nodes (P = 0.002), extracapsular spread of lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001), tumour thickness (P = 0.04), PNI (P < 0.001), and LVI (P = 0.012). Disease-free survival was influenced by PNI (P = 0.04), extracapsular spread of lymph node metastasis (P = 0.008), and N stage (P = 0.006). Multivariate analysis showed PNI to be an independent predictor for overall survival (P = 0.01) and disease-free survival (P = 0.03). Thus the presence of PNI in oral carcinoma surgical specimens has a significant impact on survival outcomes in patients with advanced stage tumours submitted to radical surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy/radiochemotherapy.

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A flow injection method for the quantitative analysis of ketoconazole in tablets, based on the reaction with iron (III) ions, is presented. Ketoconazole forms a red complex with iron ions in an acid medium, with maximum absorbance at 495 nm. The detection limit was estimated to be 1×10--4 mol L-1; the quantitation limit is about 3×10--4 mol L-1 and approximately 30 determinations can be performed in an hour. The results were compared with those obtained with a reference HPLC method. Statistical comparisons were done using the Student's t procedure and the F test. Complete agreement was found at the 0.95 significance level between the proposed flow injection and the HPLC procedures. The two methods present similar precision, i.e., for HPLC the mean relative standard deviation was ca. 1.2% and for FIA ca. 1.6%.

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Increasing water scarcity and depleted water productivity in irrigated soils are inducing farmers to adopt improved varieties, such as those with high-capacity tolerance. The use of tolerant varieties of sugarcane might substantially avoid the decline of productivity under water deficit. This research aimed to evaluate the harmful effects of drought on the physiology of two sugarcane varieties (RB867515 and RB962962) during the initial development. Young plants were subjected to irrigation suspension until total stomata closure, and then rewatered. Significant reduction on stomatal conductance, transpiration, and net photosynthesis were observed. RB867515 showed a faster stomatal closure while RB962962 slowed the effects of drought on the gas exchanges parameters with a faster recovering after rewatering. Accumulation of carbohydrates, amino acids, proline, and protein in the leaves and roots of the stressed plants occurred in both varieties, substantially linked to reduction of the leaf water potential. Due to the severity of stress, this accumulation was not enough to maintain the cell turgor pressure, so relative water content was diminished. Water stress affected the contents of chlorophyll (a, b, and total) in both varieties, but not the levels of carotenoids. There was a significant reduction in dry matter under stress. In conclusion, RB962962 variety endured stressed conditions more than RB867515, since it slowed down the damaging effects of drought on the gas exchanges. In addition, RB962962 presented a faster recovery than RB867515, a feature that qualifies it as a variety capable of enduring short periods of drought without major losses in the initial stage of its development.

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física