Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical VC dimension, empirical VC entropy, and margin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Local Rademacher complexities

We propose new bounds on the error of learning algorithms in terms of a data-dependent notion of complexity. The estimates we establish give optimal rates and are based on a local and empirical version of Rademacher averages, in the sense that the Rademacher averages are computed from the data, on a subset of functions with small empirical error. We present some applications to classification and prediction with convex function classes, and with kernel classes in particular.

Aspiration levels and educational choices: An experimental study

The explanation of social inequalities in education is still a debated issue in economics. Recent empirical studies tend to downplay the potential role of credit constraint. This article tests a different potential explanation of social inequalities in education, specifically that social differences in aspiration level result in different educational choices. Having existed for a long time in the sociology of education, this explanation can be justified if aspiration levels are seen as reference points in a prospect theory framework. In order to test this explanation, this article applies the method of experimental economics to the issue of education choice and behaviour. One hundred and twenty-nine individuals participated in an experiment in which they had to perform a task over 15 stages grouped in three blocks or levels. In order to continue through the experiment, a minimum level of success was required at the end of each level. Rewards were dependent on the final level successfully reached. At the end of each level, participants could either choose to stop and take their reward or to pay a cost to continue further in order to possibly receive higher rewards. To test the impact of aspiration levels, outcomes were either presented as gains or losses relative to an initial sum. In accordance with the theoretical predictions, participants in the loss framing group choose to go further in the experiment. There was also a significant and interesting gender effect in the loss framing treatment, such that males performed better and reached higher levels.

Comparing different explanations of the volatility trend

We analyze the puzzling behavior of the volatility of individual stock returns over the past few decades. The literature has provided many different explanations to the trend in volatility and this paper tests the viability of the different explanations. Virtually all current theoretical arguments that are provided for the trend in the average level of volatility over time lend themselves to explanations about the difference in volatility levels between firms in the cross-section. We therefore focus separately on the cross-sectional and time-series explanatory power of the different proxies. We fail to find a proxy that is able to explain both dimensions well. In particular, we find that Cao et al. [Cao, C., Simin, T.T., Zhao, J., 2008. Can growth options explain the trend in idiosyncratic risk? Review of Financial Studies 21, 2599–2633] market-to-book ratio tracks average volatility levels well, but has no cross-sectional explanatory power. On the other hand, the low-price proxy suggested by Brandt et al. [Brandt, M.W., Brav, A., Graham, J.R., Kumar, A., 2010. The idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: time trend or speculative episodes. Review of Financial Studies 23, 863–899] has much cross-sectional explanatory power, but has virtually no time-series explanatory power. We also find that the different proxies do not explain the trend in volatility in the period prior to 1995 (R-squared of virtually zero), but explain rather well the trend in volatility at the turn of the Millennium (1995–2005).

ICU nurses' experiences and perspectives of caring for obstetric patients in intensive care: A qualitative study

Aims and objectives.  The aim of this study was to gain an understanding of the experiences and perspectives of intensive care nurses caring for critically ill obstetric patients. Background.  Current literature suggests critically ill obstetric patients need specialised, technically appropriate care to meet their specific needs with which many intensive care nurses are unfamiliar. Furthermore, there is little research and evidence to guide the care of this distinct patient group. Design.  This study used a descriptive qualitative design. Methods.  Two focus groups were used to collect data from 10 Australian intensive care units nurses in May 2007. Open-ended questions were used to guide the discussion. Latent content analysis was used to analyse the data set. Each interview lasted no longer than 60 minutes and was recorded using audio tape. The full interviews were transcribed prior to in-depth analysis to identify major themes. Results.  The themes identified from the focus group interviews were competence with knowledge and skills for managing obstetric patients in the intensive care unit, confidence in caring for obstetric patients admitted to the intensive care unit and acceptance of an expanded scope of practice perceived to include fundamental midwifery knowledge and skills. Conclusion.  The expressed lack of confidence and competence in meeting the obstetric and support needs of critically ill obstetric women indicates a clear need for greater assistance and education of intensive care nurses. This in turn may encourage critical care nurses to accept an expanded role of clinical practice in caring for critically ill obstetric patients. Relevance to clinical practice.  Recognition of the issues for nurses in successfully caring for obstetric patients admitted to an adult intensive care setting provides direction for designing education packages, ensuring specific carepaths and guidelines are in place and that support from a multidisciplinary team is available including midwifery staff.

Automatic generation of effective video summaries

As the popularity of video as an information medium rises, the amount of video content that we produce and archive keeps growing. This creates a demand for shorter representations of videos in order to assist the task of video retrieval. The traditional solution is to let humans watch these videos and write textual summaries based on what they saw. This summarisation process, however, is time-consuming. Moreover, a lot of useful audio-visual information contained in the original video can be lost. Video summarisation aims to turn a full-length video into a more concise version that preserves as much information as possible. The problem of video summarisation is to minimise the trade-off between how concise and how representative a summary is. There are also usability concerns that need to be addressed in a video summarisation scheme. To solve these problems, this research aims to create an automatic video summarisation framework that combines and improves on existing video summarisation techniques, with the focus on practicality and user satisfaction. We also investigate the need for different summarisation strategies in different kinds of videos, for example news, sports, or TV series. Finally, we develop a video summarisation system based on the framework, which is validated by subjective and objective evaluation. The evaluation results shows that the proposed framework is effective for creating video skims, producing high user satisfaction rate and having reasonably low computing requirement. We also demonstrate that the techniques presented in this research can be used for visualising video summaries in the form web pages showing various useful information, both from the video itself and from external sources.

Interest rate caps : protection or paternalism

In a context where over-indebtedness and financial exclusion have been recognised as problems in Australia, it is undesirable that those who can least afford it, pay a high cost for short-term consumer credit. Evidence points to an increase in consumer debt in Australia and consequential over-indebtedness which has been shown to lead to a wide range of social problems.2 There is also evidence of financial exclusion, where consumers suffer a lack of access to mainstream financial services, and in Australia this is particularly the case with regard to access to safe and affordable credit.3 Financial exclusion can only exacerbate over-indebtedness, given that financially excluded, predominantly low income consumers , have been shown to turn to high cost credit to meet their short term credit needs. This is a problem that has been explored most recently in the Victorian Consumer Credit Review...

Margin-adaptive model selection in statistical learning

A classical condition for fast learning rates is the margin condition, first introduced by Mammen and Tsybakov. We tackle in this paper the problem of adaptivity to this condition in the context of model selection, in a general learning framework. Actually, we consider a weaker version of this condition that allows one to take into account that learning within a small model can be much easier than within a large one. Requiring this “strong margin adaptivity” makes the model selection problem more challenging. We first prove, in a general framework, that some penalization procedures (including local Rademacher complexities) exhibit this adaptivity when the models are nested. Contrary to previous results, this holds with penalties that only depend on the data. Our second main result is that strong margin adaptivity is not always possible when the models are not nested: for every model selection procedure (even a randomized one), there is a problem for which it does not demonstrate strong margin adaptivity.

An analysis of schema change intervention

Successful organizational transformation relies on being able to achieve paradigm or collective schema change, and more particularly, the ability to manage the interplay between pre-existing schemas and alternative schemas required for new environments. This conceptual paper presents an analysis and critique of collective schema change dynamics. Two schema change pathways are reflected in the literature: frame-juxtapose-transition and frame-disengage-learning. Research findings in each pathway are limited and/or contradictory. Moreover, research on schema change focuses primarily on social dynamics and less on the relationship between social schema change dynamics and individual schema change dynamics. One implication of this lack of focus on individual schema change dynamics is the masking of the high level of cognitive processing and cognitive effort required by individuals to effect schema change. The capacity to achieve organizational transformation requires that more attention is given to managing these dynamics, which, in turn, requires significant investment in developing the change leadership capabilities of managers and the organizations they manage.

Right to the city, desire for the suburb?

The 2000s have been a lively decade for cities. The Worldwatch Institute estimated that 2007 was the first year in human history that more people worldwide lived in cities than the countryside. Globalisation and new digital media technologies have generated the seemingly paradoxical outcome that spatial location came to be more rather than less important, as combinations of firms, industries, cultural activities and creative talents have increasingly clustered around a select node of what have been termed “creative cities,” that are in turn highly networked into global circuits of economic capital, political power and entertainment media. Intellectually, the period has seen what the UCLA geographer Ed Soja refers to as the spatial turn in social theory, where “whatever your interests may be, they can be significantly advanced by adopting a critical spatial perspective”. This is related to the dynamic properties of socially constructed space itself, or what Soja terms “the powerful forces that arise from socially produced spaces such as urban agglomerations and cohesive regional economies,” with the result that “what can be called the stimulus of socio-spatial agglomeration is today being assertively described as the primary cause of economic development, technological innovation, and cultural creativity”

Experimentally induced diesel engine injector faults and some preliminary acoustic emission signal observations

Diesel engine fuel injector faults can lead to reduced power, increased fuel consumption and greater exhaust emission levels and if left unchecked, can eventually lead to premature engine failure. This paper provides an overview of the Diesel, or compression ignition combustion process, and of the two basic fuel injector nozzle designs used in Diesel engines, namely, the pintle-type and hole-type nozzles. Also described are some common faults associated with these two types of fuel injector nozzles and the techniques previously used to experimentally simulate these faults. This paper also presents a recent experimental campaign undertaken using two different diesel engines whereby various fuel injector nozzle faults were induced into the engines. The first series of tests was undertaken using a turbo-charged 5.9 litre; Cummins Diesel engine whist the second series of tests was undertaken using a naturally aspirated 4 cylinder, 2.216 litre, Perkins Diesel engine. Data corresponding to different injector fault conditions was captured using in-cylinder pressure, and acoustic emission transducers along with both crank-angle encoder and top-dead centre reference signals. Using averaged in-cylinder pressure signals, it was possible to qualify the severity of the faults whilst averaged acoustic emission signals were in turn, used as the basis for wavelets decomposition. Initial observations from this signal decomposition are also presented and discussed.

Scene invariant crowd counting

This paper describes a scene invariant crowd counting algorithm that uses local features to monitor crowd size. Unlike previous algorithms that require each camera to be trained separately, the proposed method uses camera calibration to scale between viewpoints, allowing a system to be trained and tested on different scenes. A pre-trained system could therefore be used as a turn-key solution for crowd counting across a wide range of environments. The use of local features allows the proposed algorithm to calculate local occupancy statistics, and Gaussian process regression is used to scale to conditions which are unseen in the training data, also providing confidence intervals for the crowd size estimate. A new crowd counting database is introduced to the computer vision community to enable a wider evaluation over multiple scenes, and the proposed algorithm is tested on seven datasets to demonstrate scene invariance and high accuracy. To the authors' knowledge this is the first system of its kind due to its ability to scale between different scenes and viewpoints.

Early years teachers’ attitudes towards mathematics

Worldwide, there is considerable attention to providing a supportive mathematics learning environment for young children because attitude formation and achievement in these early years of schooling have a lifelong impact. Key influences on young children during these early years are their teachers. Practising early years teachers‟ attitudes towards mathematics influence the teaching methods they employ, which in turn, affects young students‟ attitudes towards mathematics, and ultimately, their achievement. However, little is known about practising early years teachers‟ attitudes to mathematics or how these attitudes form, which is the focus of this study. The research questions were: 1. What attitudes do practising early years teachers hold towards mathematics? 2. How did the teachers‟ mathematics attitudes form? This study adopted an explanatory case study design (Yin, 2003) to investigate practising early years teachers‟ attitudes towards mathematics and the formation of these attitudes. The research took place in a Brisbane southside school situated in a middle socio-economic area. The site was chosen due to its accessibility to the researcher. The participant group consisted of 20 early years teachers. They each completed the Attitude Towards Mathematics Inventory (ATMI) (Schackow, 2005), which is a 40 item instrument that measures attitudes across the four dimensions of attitude, namely value, enjoyment, self-confidence and motivation. The teachers‟ total ATMI scores were classified according to five quintiles: strongly negative, negative, neutral, positive and strongly positive. The results of the survey revealed that these teachers‟ attitudes ranged across only three categories with one teacher classified as strongly positive, twelve teachers classified as positive and seven teachers classified as neutral. No teachers were identified as having negative or strongly negative attitudes. Subsequent to the surveys, six teachers with a breadth of attitudes were selected from the original cohort to participate in open-ended interviews to investigate the formation of their attitudes. The interview data were analysed according to the four dimensions of attitudes (value, enjoyment, self-confidence, motivation) and three stages of education (primary, secondary, tertiary). Highlighted in the findings is the critical impact of schooling experiences on the formation of student attitudes towards mathematics. Findings suggest that primary school experiences are a critical influence on the attitudes of adults who become early years teachers. These findings also indicate the vital role tertiary institutions play in altering the attitudes of preservice teachers who have had negative schooling experiences. Experiences that teachers indicated contributed to the formation of positive attitudes in their own education were games, group work, hands-on activities, positive feedback and perceived relevance. In contrast, negative experiences that teachers stated influenced their attitudes were insufficient help, rushed teaching, negative feedback and a lack of relevance of the content. These findings together with the literature on teachers‟ attitudes and mathematics education were synthesized in a model titled a Cycle of Early Years Teachers’ Attitudes Towards Mathematics. This model explains positive and negative influences on attitudes towards mathematics and how the attitudes of adults are passed on to children, who then as adults themselves, repeat the cycle by passing on attitudes to a new generation. The model can provide guidance for practising teachers and for preservice and inservice education about ways to foster positive influences to attitude formation in mathematics and inhibit negative influences. Two avenues for future research arise from the findings of this study both relating to attitudes and secondary school experiences. The first question relates to the resilience of attitudes, in particular, how an individual can maintain positive attitudes towards mathematics developed in primary school, despite secondary school experiences that typically have a negative influence on attitude. The second question relates to the relationship between attitudes and achievement, specifically, why secondary students achieve good grades in mathematics despite a lack of enjoyment, which is one of the dimensions of attitude.

Identity management : strengthening one-time password authentication through usability

Usability in HCI (Human-Computer Interaction) is normally understood as the simplicity and clarity with which the interaction with a computer program or a web site is designed. Identity management systems need to provide adequate usability and should have a simple and intuitive interface. The system should not only be designed to satisfy service provider requirements but it has to consider user requirements, otherwise it will lead to inconvenience and poor usability for users when managing their identities. With poor usability and a poor user interface with regard to security, it is highly likely that the system will have poor security. The rapid growth in the number of online services leads to an increasing number of different digital identities each user needs to manage. As a result, many people feel overloaded with credentials, which in turn negatively impacts their ability to manage them securely. Passwords are perhaps the most common type of credential used today. To avoid the tedious task of remembering difficult passwords, users often behave less securely by using low entropy and weak passwords. Weak passwords and bad password habits represent security threats to online services. Some solutions have been developed to eliminate the need for users to create and manage passwords. A typical solution is based on generating one-time passwords, i.e. passwords for single session or transaction usage. Unfortunately, most of these solutions do not satisfy scalability and/or usability requirements, or they are simply insecure. In this thesis, the security and usability aspects of contemporary methods for authentication based on one-time passwords (OTP) are examined and analyzed. In addition, more scalable solutions that provide a good user experience while at the same time preserving strong security are proposed.

Determinants of skin self-examination (SSE) in men aged 50 years or older

Background: Queensland men aged 50 years and older are at high risk for melanoma. Early detection via skin self examination (SSE) (particularly whole-body SSE) followed by presentation to a doctor with suspicious lesions, may decrease morbidity and mortality from melanoma. Prevalence of whole-body SSE (wbSSE) is lower in Queensland older men compared to other population subgroups. With the exception of the present study no previous research has investigated the determinants of wbSSE in older men, or interventions to increase the behaviour in this population. Furthermore, although past SSE intervention studies for other populations have cited health behaviour models in the development of interventions, no study has tested these models in full. The Skin Awareness Study: A recent randomised trial, called the Skin Awareness Study, tested the impact of a video-delivered intervention compared to written materials alone on wbSSE in men aged 50 years or older (n=930). Men were recruited from the general population and interviewed over the telephone at baseline and 13 months. The proportion of men who reported wbSSE rose from 10% to 31% in the control group, and from 11% to 36% in the intervention group. Current research: The current research was a secondary analysis of data collected for the Skin Awareness Study. The objectives were as follows: • To describe how men who did not take up any SSE during the study period differed from those who did take up examining their skin. • To determine whether the intervention program was successful in affecting the constructs of the Health Belief Model it was aimed at (self-efficacy, perceived threat, and outcome expectations); and whether this in turn influenced wbSSE. • To determine whether the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) was a better predictor of wbSSE behaviour compared to the Health Belief Model (HBM). Methods: For objective 1, men who did not report any past SSE at baseline (n=308) were categorised as having ‘taken up SSE’ (reported SSE at study end) or ‘resisted SSE’ (reported no SSE at study end). Bivariate logistic regression, followed by multivariable regression, investigated the association between participant characteristics measured at baseline and resisting SSE. For objective 2 proxy measures of self-efficacy, perceived threat, and outcome expectations were selected. To determine whether these mediated the effect of the intervention on the outcome, a mediator analysis was performed with all participants who completed interviews at both time points (n=830) following the Baron and Kenny approach, modified for use with structural equation modelling (SEM). For objective 3, control group participants only were included (n=410). Proxy measures of all HBM and HAPA constructs were selected and SEM was used to build up models and test the significance of each hypothesised pathway. A likelihood ratio test compared the HAPA to the HBM. Results: Amongst men who did not report any SSE at baseline, 27% did not take up any SSE by the end of the study. In multivariable analyses, resisting SSE was associated with having more freckly skin (p=0.027); being unsure about the statement ‘if I saw something suspicious on my skin, I’d go to the doctor straight away’ (p=0.028); not intending to perform SSE (p=0.015), having lower SSE self-efficacy (p<0.001), and having no recommendation for SSE from a doctor (p=0.002). In the mediator analysis none of the tested variables mediated the relationship between the intervention and wbSSE. In regards to health behaviour models, the HBM did not predict wbSSE well overall. Only the construct of self-efficacy was a significant predictor of future wbSSE (p=0.001), while neither perceived threat (p=0.584) nor outcome expectations (p=0.220) were. By contrast, when the HAPA constructs were added, all three HBM variables predicted intention to perform SSE, which in turn predicted future behaviour (p=0.015). The HAPA construct of volitional self-efficacy was also associated with wbSSE (p=0.046). The HAPA was a significantly better model compared to the HBM (p<0.001). Limitations: Items selected to measure HBM and HAPA model constructs for objectives 2 and 3 may not have accurately reflected each construct. Conclusions: This research added to the evidence base on how best to target interventions to older men; and on the appropriateness of particular health behaviour models to guide interventions. Findings indicate that to overcome resistance those men with more negative pre-existing attitudes to SSE (not intending to do it, lower initial self-efficacy) may need to be targeted with more intensive interventions in the future. Involving general practitioners in recommending SSE to their patients in this population, alongside disseminating an intervention, may increase its success. Comparison of the HBM and HAPA showed that while two of the three HBM variables examined did not directly predict future wbSSE, all three were associated with intention to self-examine skin. This suggests that in this population, intervening on these variables may increase intention to examine skin, but not necessarily the behaviour itself. Future interventions could potentially focus on increasing both the motivational variables of perceived threat and outcome expectations as well as a combination of both action and volitional self-efficacy; with the aim of increasing intention as well as its translation to taking up and maintaining regular wbSSE.