Essays in partial identification and applications to treatment effects and policy evaluation.

Dans cette thèse, je me suis interessé à l’identification partielle des effets de traitements dans différents modèles de choix discrets avec traitements endogènes. Les modèles d’effets de traitement ont pour but de mesurer l’impact de certaines interventions sur certaines variables d’intérêt. Le type de traitement et la variable d’intérêt peuvent être défini de manière générale afin de pouvoir être appliqué à plusieurs différents contextes. Il y a plusieurs exemples de traitement en économie du travail, de la santé, de l’éducation, ou en organisation industrielle telle que les programmes de formation à l’emploi, les techniques médicales, l’investissement en recherche et développement, ou l’appartenance à un syndicat. La décision d’être traité ou pas n’est généralement pas aléatoire mais est basée sur des choix et des préférences individuelles. Dans un tel contexte, mesurer l’effet du traitement devient problématique car il faut tenir compte du biais de sélection. Plusieurs versions paramétriques de ces modèles ont été largement étudiées dans la littérature, cependant dans les modèles à variation discrète, la paramétrisation est une source importante d’identification. Dans un tel contexte, il est donc difficile de savoir si les résultats empiriques obtenus sont guidés par les données ou par la paramétrisation imposée au modèle. Etant donné, que les formes paramétriques proposées pour ces types de modèles n’ont généralement pas de fondement économique, je propose dans cette thèse de regarder la version nonparamétrique de ces modèles. Ceci permettra donc de proposer des politiques économiques plus robustes. La principale difficulté dans l’identification nonparamétrique de fonctions structurelles, est le fait que la structure suggérée ne permet pas d’identifier un unique processus générateur des données et ceci peut être du soit à la présence d’équilibres multiples ou soit à des contraintes sur les observables. Dans de telles situations, les méthodes d’identifications traditionnelles deviennent inapplicable d’où le récent développement de la littérature sur l’identification dans les modèles incomplets. Cette littérature porte une attention particuliere à l’identification de l’ensemble des fonctions structurelles d’intérêt qui sont compatibles avec la vraie distribution des données, cet ensemble est appelé : l’ensemble identifié. Par conséquent, dans le premier chapitre de la thèse, je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans le modèle triangulaire binaire. Dans le second chapitre, je considère le modèle de Roy discret. Je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans un modèle de choix de secteur lorsque la variable d’intérêt est discrète. Les hypothèses de sélection du secteur comprennent le choix de sélection simple, étendu et généralisé de Roy. Dans le dernier chapitre, je considère un modèle à variable dépendante binaire avec plusieurs dimensions d’hétérogéneité, tels que les jeux d’entrées ou de participation. je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les fonctions de profits des firmes dans un jeux avec deux firmes et à information complète. Dans tout les chapitres, l’ensemble identifié des fonctions d’intérêt sont écrites sous formes de bornes et assez simple pour être estimées à partir des méthodes d’inférence existantes.

Transforaminal versus intra-articular facet steroid injections for the treatment of cervical radiculopathy : a randomized, double-blinded, controlled study.

Cette étude a été subventionnée par le Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé (FRQ-S, grant # 21230 – 2)

The impact of early intra-articular corticosteroid injections on the outcome of oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Contexte Un objectif important de la prise en charge de l'arthrite juvénile oligoarticulaire serait d'altérer le cours de la maladie à l'aide d'une thérapie hâtive. Nous avons étudié l'effet des injections intra-articulaires de corticostéroïdes hâtives sur les chances d'atteindre un décompte d'articulation active de zéro et une maladie inactive. Méthode Les données démographiques, cliniques et thérapeutiques des patients avec oligoarthrite juvénile enrôlés dans une étude prospective longitudinale pancanadienne ont été collectées pendant 2 ans. Une injection hâtive était définie comme étant reçue dans les 3 premiers mois suivant le diagnostic. Les équations d'estimation généralisées ont été utilisées pour l'analyse statistique. Résultats Trois cent dix patients ont été inclus. Cent onze (35.8%) ont reçu une injection hâtive. Ces derniers avaient une maladie plus active lors de l'entrée dans l'étude. Les patients exposés à une injection hâtive avaient une chance similaire d'obtenir un décompte d'articulation active de zéro, OR 1.52 (IC95% 0.68-3.37), p=0.306 mais étaient significativement moins à risque d'avoir une maladie inactive, OR 0.35 (IC95% 0.14-0.88), p=0.026. Interprétation Dans cette cohorte de 310 patients avec oligoarthrite juvénile, les injections hâtives de corticostéroïdes n'ont pas mené à une probabilité plus élevée d'atteindre un décompte d'articulation active de zéro ou une maladie inactive. Des problématiques méthodologiques intrinsèques à l'utilisation de données observationnelles pour fins d'estimation d'effets thérapeutiques auraient pu biaiser les résultats. Nous ne pouvons affirmer avec certitude que les injections hâtives n'améliorent pas le décours de la maladie. Des études prospectives adressant les limitations soulevées seront requises pour clarifier la question.

Mental health treatment seeking by military members with posttraumatic stress disorder : findings on rates, characteristics, and predictors from a nationally representative Canadian military sample

Objective: The goal of this study was to identify rates, characteristies, and predictors of mental health treatment seeking by military members with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Method: Our sample was drawn from the 2002 Canadian Community Health Survey-Canadian Forces Supplement (CCHS-CF) dataset. The CCHS-CF is the first epidemiologic survey of PTSD and other mental health conditions in the Canadian military and includes 8441 nationally representative Canadian Forces (CF) members. Of those, 549 who met the criteria for lifetime PTSD were included in our analyses. To identify treatment rates and characteristics, we examined frequency of treatment contact by professional and facility type. To identify predictors of treatment seeking, we conducted a binary logistic regression with lifetime treatment seeking as the outcome variable. Results: About two-thirds of those with PTSD consulted with a professional regarding mental health problems. The most frequently consulted professionals, during both the last year and lifetime, included social workers and counsellors, medical doctors and general practitioners, and psychiatrists. Consultations during the last year most often took place in a CF facility. Treatment seeking was predicted by cumulative lifetime trauma exposure, index traumatic event type, PTSD symptom interference, and comorbid major depressive disorder. Those with comorbid depression were 3.75 times more likely to have sought treatment than those without. Conclusions: Although a significant portion of military members with PTSD sought mental health treatment, 1 in 3 never did. Trauma-related and illness and (or) need factors predicted treatment seeking. Of all the predictors of treatment seeking, comorbid depression most increased the likelihood of seeking treatment.

Non-invasive quantitative assessment of scoliosis spinal surgery outcome

Improving the appearance of the trunk is an important goal of scoliosis surgical treatment, mainly in patients' eyes. Unfortunately, existing methods for assessing postoperative trunk appearance are rather subjective as they rely on a qualitative evaluation of the trunk shape. In this paper, an objective method is proposed to quantify the changes in trunk shape after surgery. Using a non-invasive optical system, the whole trunk surface is acquired and reconstructed in 3D. Trunk shape is described by two functional measurements spanning the trunk length: the lateral deviation and the axial rotation. To measure the pre and postoperative differences, a correction rate is computed for both measurements. On a cohort of 36 scoliosis patients with the same spinal curve type who underwent the same surgical approach, surgery achieved a very good correction of the lateral trunk deviation (median correction of 76%) and a poor to moderate correction of the back axial rotation (median correction of 19%). These results demonstrate that after surgery, patients are still confronted with residual trunk deformity, mainly a persisting hump on the back. That can be explained by the fact that current scoliosis assessment and treatment planning are based solely on radiographic measures of the spinal deformity and do not take trunk deformity into consideration. It is believed that with our novel quantitative trunk shape descriptor, clinicians and surgeons can now objectively assess trunk deformity and postoperative shape and propose new treatment strategies that could better address patients' concern about their appearance. © (2013) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Women with provoked vestibulodynia experience clinically significant reductions in pain regardless of treatment : results from a 2-year follow up study.

Introduction Provoked vestibulodynia (PVD) is a prevalent genital pain syndrome that has been assumed to be chronic, with little spontaneous remission. Despite this assumption, there is a dearth of empirical evidence regarding the progression of PVD in a natural setting. Although many treatments are available, there is no single treatment that has demonstrated efficacy above others. Aims The aims of this secondary analysis of a prospective study were to (i) assess changes over a 2-year period in pain, depressive symptoms, and sexual outcomes in women with PVD; and (ii) examine changes based on treatment(s) type. Methods Participants completed questionnaire packages at Time 1 and a follow-up package 2 years later. Main Outcome Measures Visual analog scale of genital pain, Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction, Female Sexual Function Index, Beck Depression Inventory, Dyadic Adjustment Scale, and sexual intercourse attempts over the past month. Results Two hundred thirty-nine women with PVD completed both time one and two questionnaires. For the sample as a whole, there was significant improvement over 2 years on pain ratings, sexual satisfaction, sexual function, and depressive symptoms. The most commonly received treatments were physical therapy, sex/psychotherapy, and medical treatment, although 41.0% did not undergo any treatment. Women receiving no treatment also improved significantly on pain ratings. No single treatment type predicted better outcome for any variable except depressive symptoms, in which women who underwent surgery were more likely to improve. Discussion These results suggest that PVD may significantly reduce in severity over time. Participants demonstrated clinically significant pain improvement, even when they did not receive treatment. Furthermore, the only single treatment type predicting better outcomes was surgery, and only for depressive symptoms, accounting for only 2.3% of the variance. These data do not demonstrate the superiority of any one treatment and underscore the need to have control groups in PVD treatment trials, otherwise improvements may simply be the result of natural progression.

Evolution of clinical and functional results after arthroscopic treatment of Discoid Meniscus. A case series study of 31 cases.

Purpose: To evaluate the evolution of clinical and functional outcomes of symptomatic discoid lateral meniscus treated arthroscopically over time and to investigate the relationship between associated intra-articular findings and outcomes. Methods: Of all patients treated arthroscopically between 1995 and 2010, patients treated for symptomatic discoid meniscus were identified in the hospital charts. Baseline data (demographics, previous trauma of ipsilateral knee, and associated intra-articular findings) and medium term outcome data from clinical follow-up examinations (pain, locking, snapping and instability of the operated knee) were extracted from clinical records. Telephone interviews were conducted at long term in 28 patients (31 knees). Interviews comprised clinical outcomes as well as functional outcomes as assessed by the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form (IKDC). Results: All patients underwent arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. The mean follow-up time for data extracted from clinical records was 11 months (SD ± 12). A significant improvement was found for pain in 77% (p<0.001), locking in 13%, (p=0.045) and snapping in 39 % (p<0.005). The mean follow-up time of the telephone interview was 60 months (SD ± 43). Improvement from baseline was generally less after five years than after one year and functional outcomes of the IKDC indicated an abnormal function after surgery (IKDC mean= 84.5, SD ± 20). In some patients, 5 year-outcomes were even worse than their preoperative condition. Nonetheless, 74% of patients perceived their knee function as improved. Furthermore, better results were seen in patients without any associated intra-articular findings. Conclusions: Arthroscopical partial meniscectomy is an effective intervention to relieve symptoms in patients with discoid meniscus in the medium-term; however, results trend to deteriorate over time. A trend towards better outcome for patients with no associated intra-articular findings was observed.

Donepezil for the symptomatic treatment of patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials

Background: The objective was to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) compared with placebo in alleviating manifestations of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). Method: A systematic review of individual patient data from Phase II and III double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled studies of up to 24 weeks and completed by 20 December 1999. The main outcome measures were the ADAS-cog, the CIBIC-plus, and reports of adverse events. Results: A total of 2376 patients from ten trials were randomised to either donepezil 5 mg/day (n = 821), 10 mg/day (n = 662) or placebo (n = 893). Cognitive performance was better in patients receiving donepezil than in patients receiving placebo. At 12 weeks the differences in ADAS-cog scores were 5 mg/day-placebo: - 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI), - 2.6 to - 1.6; p < 0.001], 10 mg/day-placebo: - 2.5 ( - 3.1 to - 2.0; p < 0.001). The corresponding results at 24 weeks were - 2.0 ( - 2.7 to - 1.3; p < 0.001) and - 3.1 ( - 3.9 to - 2.4; p < 0.001). The difference between the 5 and 10 mg/day doses was significant at 24 weeks (p = 0.005). The odds ratios (OR) of improvement on the CIBIC-plus at 12 weeks were: 5 mg/day-placebo 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1; p < 0.001), 10 mg/day-placebo 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p < 0.001). The corresponding values at 24 weeks were 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p = 0.001) and 2.1 (1.6 to 2.8; p < 0.001). Donepezil was well tolerated; adverse events were cholinergic in nature and generally of mild severity and brief in duration. Conclusion: Donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) provides meaningful benefits in alleviating deficits in cognitive and clinician-rated global function in AD patients relative to placebo. Increased improvements in cognition were indicated for the higher dose. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship between resistance factors and treatment efficacy when bromadiolone was used against anticoagulant-resistant Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) in Wales

We investigated the relationship between the severity and incidence of resistance among Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) on a farm in Wales and the subsequent outcome of a practical rodent control operation. Bromadiolone resistance factors were estimated for rats trapped on the farm using the blood clotting response test, and were found to be 2 to 3 for male rats and approximately 6 for females. The incidence of resistance in the rat population was high. Infestation size was estimated by census baiting and tracking, and was found to be substantial, with a maximum of 6.5 kg of bait being eaten on a single night. A proprietary rodenticide (Deadline (TM)), containing 0.005% bromadiolone, was used to control the infestation. The duration of baiting was 35 days and, according to the two methods of assessment used, treatment success was in the region of 87 and 93%. No evidence was observed of a significant impact of resistance on the rat control operation, and the remaining rats of this very heavy infestation would probably have been controlled if baiting had continued for longer.

Bromelain as an adjunctive treatment for moderate-to-severe osteoarthritis of the knee: a randomized placebo-controlled pilot study

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee is the most prevalent joint disorder. Previous studies suggest that bromelain, a pineapple extract, may be a safer alternative/adjunctive treatment for knee OA than current conventional treatment. Aim: To assess the efficacy of bromelain in treating OA of the knee. Design: Randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial. Methods: Subjects (n=47) with a confirmed diagnosis of moderate to severe knee OA were randomized to 12 weeks of bromelain 800 mg/day or placebo, with a 4-week follow-up. Knee (pain, stiffness and function) and quality-of-life symptoms were reported monthly in the WOMAC and SF36 questionnaires, respectively. Adverse events were also recorded. The primary outcome measure was the change in total WOMAC score from baseline to the end of treatment at week 12. Longitudinal models were used to evaluate outcome. Results: Thirty-one patients completed the trial (14 bromelain, 17 placebo). No statistically significant differences were observed between groups for the primary outcome (coefficient 11.16, p=0.27, 95%CI-8.86 to 31.18), nor the WOMAC subscales or SF36. Both treatment groups showed clinically relevant improvement in the WOMAC disability subscale only. Adverse events were generally mild in nature. Discussion: This study suggests that bromelain is not efficacious as an adjunctive treatment of moderate to severe OA, but its limitations support the need for a follow-up study.

Family treatment of child anxiety: outcomes, limitations and future directions

Anxiety of childhood is a common and serious condition. The past decade has seen an increase in treatment-focussed research, with recent trials tending to give greater attention to parents in the treatment process. This review examines the efficacy of family-based cognitive behaviour therapy and attempts to delineate some of the factors that might have an impact on its efficacy. The choice and timing of outcome measure, age and gender of the child, level of parental anxiety, severity and type of child anxiety and treatment format and content are scrutinised. The main conclusions are necessarily tentative, but it seems likely that Family Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (FCBT) is superior to no treatment, and, for some outcome measures, also superior to Child Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CCBT). Where FCBT is successful, the results are consistently maintained at follow-up. It appears that where a parent is anxious, and this is not addressed, outcomes are less good. However, for children of anxious parents, FCBT is probably more effective than CCBT. What is most clear is that large, well-designed studies, examining these factors alone and in combination, are now needed.

Treatment response in child anxiety is differentially related to the form of maternal anxiety disorder

An examination was made of the extent to which maternal anxiety predicted response to treatment of children presenting with an anxiety disorder. In a sample of 55 children referred to a local NHS CAMH service for treatment of an anxiety disorder, systematic mental state interview assessment was made of both mothers and children, and both completed self-report questionnaires to assess aspects of anxiety, both immediately before the children received treatment and following treatment. Children of mothers with anxiety disorder overall responded less well to treatment than children of mothers with no anxiety disorder. There was some diagnostic specificity in this in that children of mothers with GAD did as well in treatment as children whose mothers had no anxiety, whereas children of mothers with social phobia did poorly. The outcome for children with anxiety appears to be related to the presence and nature of maternal anxiety. It would seem prudent that treatment of children with anxiety involves assessment of maternal anxiety. It is important to establish in systematic investigation whether treatment of maternal anxiety improves the outcome for child anxiety.

Analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of robot-mediated stroke therapy

Robot-mediated therapies offer a new approach to neurorehabilitation. This paper analyses the Fugl-Meyer data from the Gentle/S project and finds that the two intervention phases (sling suspension and robot mediated therapy) have approximately equal value to the further recovery of chronic stroke subjects (on average 27 months post stroke). Both sling suspension and robot mediated interventions show a recovery over baseline and further work is needed to establish the common factors in treatment, and to establish intervention protocols for each that will give individual subjects a maximum level of recovery.

Anticipatory activation in the amygdala and anterior cingulate in generalized anxiety disorder and prediction of treatment response

OBJECTIVE: The anticipation of adverse outcomes, or worry, is a cardinal symptom of generalized anxiety disorder. Prior work with healthy subjects has shown that anticipating aversive events recruits a network of brain regions, including the amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex. This study tested whether patients with generalized anxiety disorder have alterations in anticipatory amygdala function and whether anticipatory activity in the anterior cingulate cortex predicts treatment response. METHOD: Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was employed with 14 generalized anxiety disorder patients and 12 healthy comparison subjects matched for age, sex, and education. The event-related fMRI paradigm was composed of one warning cue that preceded aversive pictures and a second cue that preceded neutral pictures. Following the fMRI session, patients received 8 weeks of treatment with extended-release venlafaxine. RESULTS: Patients with generalized anxiety disorder showed greater anticipatory activity than healthy comparison subjects in the bilateral dorsal amygdala preceding both aversive and neutral pictures. Building on prior reports of pretreatment anterior cingulate cortex activity predicting treatment response, anticipatory activity in that area was associated with clinical outcome 8 weeks later following treatment with venlafaxine. Higher levels of pretreatment anterior cingulate cortex activity in anticipation of both aversive and neutral pictures were associated with greater reductions in anxiety and worry symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings of heightened and indiscriminate amygdala responses to anticipatory signals in generalized anxiety disorder and of anterior cingulate cortex associations with treatment response provide neurobiological support for the role of anticipatory processes in the pathophysiology of generalized anxiety disorder.

Codon and mRNA sequence optimization of microdystrophin transgenes improves expression and physiological outcome in dystrophic mdx mice following AAV2/8 gene transfer

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is a fatal muscle-wasting disorder. Lack of dystrophin compromises the integrity of the sarcolemma and results in myofibers that are highly prone to contraction-induced injury. Recombinant adenoassociated virus (rAAV)-mediated dystrophin gene transfer strategies to muscle for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) have been limited by the small cloning capacity of rAAV vectors and high titers necessary to achieve efficient systemic gene transfer. In this study, we assess the impact of codon optimization on microdystrophin (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT) expression and function in the mdx mouse and compare the function of two different configurations of codon-optimized microdystrophin genes (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT and ΔR4-R23/ΔCT) under the control of a muscle-restrictive promoter (Spc5-12). Codon optimization of microdystrophin significantly increases levels of microdystrophin mRNA and protein after intramuscular and systemic administration of plasmid DNA or rAAV2/8. Physiological assessment demonstrates that codon optimization of ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT results in significant improvement in specific force, but does not improve resistance to eccentric contractions compared with noncodon-optimized ΔAB/ R3-R18/ΔCT. However, codon-optimized microdystrophin ΔR4-R23/ΔCT completely restored specific force generation and provided substantial protection from contraction-induced injury. These results demonstrate that codon optimization of microdystrophin under the control of a muscle-specific promoter can significantly improve expression levels such that reduced titers of rAAV vectors will be required for efficient systemic administration.