P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

Rockfall travel distance analysis by using empirical models (Solà d'Andorra la Vella, Central Pyrenees)

The prediction of rockfall travel distance below a rock cliff is an indispensable activity in rockfall susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment. Although the size of the detached rock mass may differ considerably at each specific rock cliff, small rockfall (<100 m3) is the most frequent process. Empirical models may provide us with suitable information for predicting the travel distance of small rockfalls over an extensive area at a medium scale (1:100 000¿1:25 000). "Solà d'Andorra la Vella" is a rocky slope located close to the town of Andorra la Vella, where the government has been documenting rockfalls since 1999. This documentation consists in mapping the release point and the individual fallen blocks immediately after the event. The documentation of historical rockfalls by morphological analysis, eye-witness accounts and historical images serve to increase available information. In total, data from twenty small rockfalls have been gathered which reveal an amount of a hundred individual fallen rock blocks. The data acquired has been used to check the reliability of the main empirical models widely adopted (reach and shadow angle models) and to analyse the influence of parameters which affecting the travel distance (rockfall size, height of fall along the rock cliff and volume of the individual fallen rock block). For predicting travel distances in maps with medium scales, a method has been proposed based on the "reach probability" concept. The accuracy of results has been tested from the line entailing the farthest fallen boulders which represents the maximum travel distance of past rockfalls. The paper concludes with a discussion of the application of both empirical models to other study areas.

[Voyage en Italie : 1824-1830]. , [à gauche] Plan d'un Edifice dont les ruines existent à peu de distance d'un lieu nommé Roma Vecchia [...] ; [au centre] Maison Antique découverte dans la villa Negroni [...]. [à droite] Maison [de marchand] à Pompeia : [trois petits plans, une coupe longitudinale] : [dessin] / h. L. [Henri Labrouste]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 394

Reception of Walras' theory of exchange and theory of production in Russia

This paper evaluates the reception of Léon Walras' ideas in Russia before 1920. Despite an unfavourable institutional context, Walras was read by Russian economists. On the one hand, Bortkiewicz and Winiarski, who lived outside Russia and had the opportunity to meet and correspond with Walras, were first class readers and very good ambassadors for Walras' ideas, while on the other, the economists living in Russia were more selective in their readings. They restricted themselves to Walras' Elements of Pure Economics, in particular, its theory of exchange, while ignoring its theory of production. We introduce a cultural argument to explain their selective reading. JEL classification numbers: B 13, B 19.

Migration Flows and Quality of Life in a Metropolitan Area: the Case of Barcelona-Spain

The phenomenon of human migration is certainly not new and it has been studied from a variety of perspectives. Yet, the attention on human migration and its determinant has not been fading over time as confirmed by recent contributions (see for instance Cushing and Poot 2004 and Rebhun and Raveh 2006). In this paper we combine the recent theoretical contributions by Douglas (1997) and Wall (2001) with the methodological advancements of Guimarães et al. (2000, 2003) to model inter-municipal migration flows in the Barcelona area. In order to do that, we employ two different types of count models, i.e. the Poisson and negative binomial and compare the estimations obtained. Our results show that, even after controlling for the traditional migration factors, QoL (measured with a Composite Index which includes numerous aspects and also using a list of individual variables) is an important determinant of short distance migration movements in the Barcelona area.

Lagrangian-Hamiltonian unified formalism for field theory

The RuskSkinner formalism was developed in order to give a geometrical unified formalism for describing mechanical systems. It incorporates all the characteristics of Lagrangian and Hamiltonian descriptions of these systems (including dynamical equations and solutions, constraints, Legendre map, evolution operators, equivalence, etc.). In this work we extend this unified framework to first-order classical field theories, and show how this description comprises the main features of the Lagrangian and Hamiltonian formalisms, both for the regular and singular cases. This formulation is a first step toward further applications in optimal control theory for partial differential equations. 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Self construction, cognitive conflicts and polarization in bulimia nervosa

This study explores the cognitive structures, understood as construct systems, of patients suffering from bulimia nervosa (BN). Previous studies investigated the construct systems of disordered eaters suggesting that they had a higher distance between their construction of the self and the «ideal self», and also more rigidity. In addition to these aspects, this study explored the presence of implicative dilemmas (ID). Thirty two women who met criteria for BN and were treated in a specialized center were compared to a non clinical group composed by 32 women matched by age. All participants were assessed using Repertory Grid Technique (RGT). In BN patients it was more common (71.9%) to find IDs than in controls (18.8%). They also showed higher polarization and higher self-ideal discrepancies (even more for those with a long history of BN). The measures provided by the RGT can be useful for the assessment of self-construction and cognitive conflicts in BN patients and to appreciate their role in this disorder. In addition, this technique could be helpful for clinicians to explore the patient"s constructs system, and specially to identify IDs that could be maintaining the symptoms or hindering change in order to focus on them to facilitate improvement.

Properties of a risk measure derived from ruin theory

This paper studies a risk measure inherited from ruin theory and investigates some of its properties. Specifically, we consider a value-at-risk (VaR)-type risk measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin probability is less than a given level. This VaR-type risk measure turns out to be equivalent to the VaR of the maximal deficit of the ruin process in infinite time. A related Tail-VaR-type risk measure is also discussed.