Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

Inference on Survival Data with Covariate Measurement Error - An Imputation-based Approach

We propose a new method for fitting proportional hazards models with error-prone covariates. Regression coefficients are estimated by solving an estimating equation that is the average of the partial likelihood scores based on imputed true covariates. For the purpose of imputation, a linear spline model is assumed on the baseline hazard. We discuss consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators, and propose a stochastic approximation scheme to obtain the estimates. The algorithm is easy to implement, and reduces to the ordinary Cox partial likelihood approach when the measurement error has a degenerative distribution. Simulations indicate high efficiency and robustness. We consider the special case where error-prone replicates are available on the unobserved true covariates. As expected, increasing the number of replicate for the unobserved covariates increases efficiency and reduces bias. We illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group clinical trial where a genetic marker, c-myc expression level, is subject to measurement error.

New concept for CTO recanalization using controlled antegrade and retrograde subintimal tracking: the CART technique

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the safety and feasibility of a new concept for CTO recanalization using a controlled antegrade and retrograde subintimal tracking technique (CART technique). BACKGROUND: A successful percutaneous recanalization of chronic coronary occlusions results in improved survival, as well as enhanced left ventricular function, reduction in angina, and improved exercise tolerance. However, successful recanalization of CTOs is still not optimal, and needs further improvements. METHODS: Ten patients with a CTO underwent the CART procedure. This technique combines the simultaneous use of the antegrade and retrograde approaches. A subintimal dissection is created antegradely and retrogradely, which allows the operator to limit the extension of the subintimal dissection in the CTO portion. A retrograde approach means that the occlusion site is approached in a retrograde fashion through the best collateral channel from any other patent coronary artery. RESULTS: The occlusion site was located in the RCA in 9 patients, and in the LAD in 1 patient. CTO duration varied from 7 to 84 months. Vessel recanalization was achieved in all patients. In all cases, the subintimal dissection was limited to the CTO region. No complications occurred in the collateral channel used for the retrograde approach. There were no in-hospital major adverse cardiac events. CONCLUSIONS: The CART technique is feasible, safe, and has a high success rate.

Assessment of use of microsatellite polymorphism analysis for improving spatial distribution tracking of echinococcus multilocularis

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE)--caused by the cestode Echinococcus multilocularis--is a severe zoonotic disease found in temperate and arctic regions of the northern hemisphere. Even though the transmission patterns observed in different geographical areas are heterogeneous, the nuclear and mitochondrial targets usually used for the genotyping of E. multilocularis have shown only a marked genetic homogeneity in this species. We used microsatellite sequences, because of their high typing resolution, to explore the genetic diversity of E. multilocularis. Four microsatellite targets (EmsJ, EmsK, and EmsB, which were designed in our laboratory, and NAK1, selected from the literature) were tested on a panel of 76 E. multilocularis samples (larval and adult stages) obtained from Alaska, Canada, Europe, and Asia. Genetic diversity for each target was assessed by size polymorphism analysis. With the EmsJ and EmsK targets, two alleles were found for each locus, yielding two and three genotypes, respectively, discriminating European isolates from the other groups. With NAK1, five alleles were found, yielding seven genotypes, including those specific to Tibetan and Alaskan isolates. The EmsB target, a tandem repeated multilocus microsatellite, found 17 alleles showing a complex pattern. Hierarchical clustering analyses were performed with the EmsB findings, and 29 genotypes were identified. Due to its higher genetic polymorphism, EmsB exhibited a higher discriminatory power than the other targets. The complex EmsB pattern was able to discriminate isolates on a regional and sectoral level, while avoiding overdistinction. EmsB will be used to assess the putative emergence of E. multilocularis in Europe.

Impact of a self-developed planning and self-constructed navigation system on skull base surgery: 10 years experience

CONCLUSION: Our self-developed planning and navigation system has proven its capacity for accurate surgery on the anterior and lateral skull base. With the incorporation of augmented reality, image-guided surgery will evolve into 'information-guided surgery'. OBJECTIVE: Microscopic or endoscopic skull base surgery is technically demanding and its outcome has a great impact on a patient's quality of life. The goal of the project was aimed at developing and evaluating enabling navigation surgery tools for simulation, planning, training, education, and performance. This clinically applied technological research was complemented by a series of patients (n=406) who were treated by anterior and lateral skull base procedures between 1997 and 2006. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Optical tracking technology was used for positional sensing of instruments. A newly designed dynamic reference base with specific registration techniques using fine needle pointer or ultrasound enables the surgeon to work with a target error of < 1 mm. An automatic registration assessment method, which provides the user with a color-coded fused representation of CT and MR images, indicates to the surgeon the location and extent of registration (in)accuracy. Integration of a small tracker camera mounted directly on the microscope permits an advantageous ergonomic way of working in the operating room. Additionally, guidance information (augmented reality) from multimodal datasets (CT, MRI, angiography) can be overlaid directly onto the surgical microscope view. The virtual simulator as a training tool in endonasal and otological skull base surgery provides an understanding of the anatomy as well as preoperative practice using real patient data. RESULTS: Using our navigation system, no major complications occurred in spite of the fact that the series included difficult skull base procedures. An improved quality in the surgical outcome was identified compared with our control group without navigation and compared with the literature. The surgical time consumption was reduced and more minimally invasive approaches were possible. According to the participants' questionnaires, the educational effect of the virtual simulator in our residency program received a high ranking.