Estimation of gear tooth deflection by the finite element method

The finite element method (FEM) is used to determine for pitch-point, mid-point and tip loading, the deflection curve of a Image 1 diamentral pitch (DP) standard spur gear tooth corresponding to number of teeth of 14, 21, 26 and 34. In all these cases the deflection of the gear tooth at the point of loading obtained by FEM is in good agreement with the experimental value. The contraflexure in the deflection curve at the point of loading observed experimentally in the cases of pitch-point and mid-point loading, is predicted correctly by the FEM analysis.

Nonlinear transport in semiconducting polymers at high carrier densities

Conducting and semiconducting polymers are important materials in the development of printed, flexible, large-area electronics such as flat-panel displays and photovoltaic cells. There has been rapid progress in developing conjugated polymers with high transport mobility required for high-performance field-effect transistors (FETs), beginning(1) with mobilities around 10(-4) cm(2) V-1 s(-1) to a recent report(2) of 1 cm(2) V-1 s(-1) for poly(2,5-bis(3-tetradecylthiophen-2-yl) thieno[3,2-b] thiophene) (PBTTT). Here, the electrical properties of PBTTT are studied at high charge densities both as the semiconductor layer in FETs and in electrochemically doped films to determine the transport mechanism. We show that data obtained using a wide range of parameters (temperature, gate-induced carrier density, source-drain voltage and doping level) scale onto the universal curve predicted for transport in the Luttinger liquid description of the one-dimensional `metal'.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Single layer bismuth iodide: Computational exploration of structural, electrical, mechanical and optical properties

Layered graphitic materials exhibit new intriguing electronic structure and the search for new types of two-dimensional (2D) monolayer is of importance for the fabrication of next generation miniature electronic and optoelectronic devices. By means of density functional theory (DFT) computations, we investigated in detail the structural, electronic, mechanical and optical properties of the single-layer bismuth iodide (BiI3) nanosheet. Monolayer BiI3 is dynamically stable as confirmed by the computed phonon spectrum. The cleavage energy (Ecl) and interlayer coupling strength of bulk BiI3 are comparable to the experimental values of graphite, which indicates that the exfoliation of BiI3 is highly feasible. The obtained stress-strain curve shows that the BiI3 nanosheet is a brittle material with a breaking strain of 13%. The BiI3 monolayer has an indirect band gap of 1.57 eV with spin orbit coupling (SOC), indicating its potential application for solar cells. Furthermore, the band gap of BiI3 monolayer can be modulated by biaxial strain. Most interestingly, interfacing electrically active graphene with monolayer BiI3 nanosheet leads to enhanced light absorption compared to that in pure monolayer BiI3 nanosheet, highlighting its great potential applications in photonics and photovoltaic solar cells.

Pest-damage relationships for Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) during pod-fill.

The response of soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) to feeding by Helicoverpa armigera during the pod-fill stage was studied in irrigated field cages over three seasons to determine the relationship between larval density and yield loss, and to develop economic injury levels. H. armigera intensity was calculated in Helicoverpa injury equivalent (HIE) units, where 1 HIE was the consumption of one larva from the start of the infestation period to pupation. In the dry bean experiment, yield loss occurred at a rate 6.00 ± 1.29 g/HIE while the rates of loss in the three soybean experiments were 4.39 ± 0.96 g/HIE, 3.70 ± 1.21 g/HIE and 2.12 ± 0.71 g/HIE. These three slopes were not statistically different (P > 0.05) and the pooled estimate of the rate of yield loss was 3.21 ± 0.55 g/HIE. The first soybean experiment also showed a split-line form of damage curve with a rate of yield loss of 26.27 ± 2.92 g/HIE beyond 8.0 HIE and a rapid decline to zero yield. In dry bean, H. armigera feeding reduced total and undamaged pod numbers by 4.10 ± 1.18 pods/HIE and 12.88 ± 1.57 pods/HIE respectively, while undamaged seed numbers were reduced by 35.64 ± 7.25 seeds/HIE. In soybean, total pod numbers were not affected by H. armigera infestation (out to 8.23 HIE in Experiment 1) but seed numbers (in Experiments 1 and 2) and the number of seeds/pod (in all experiments) were adversely affected. Seed size increased with increases in H. armigera density in two of the three soybean experiments, indicating plant compensatory responses to H. armigera feeding. Analysis of canopy pod profiles indicated that loss of pods occurred from the top of the plant downwards, but with an increase in pod numbers close to the ground at higher pest densities as the plant attempted to compensate for damage. Based on these results, the economic injury levels for H. armigera on dry bean and soybean are approximately 0.74 HIE and 2.31 HIE/m2, respectively (0.67 and 2.1 HIE/row-m for 91 cm rows).

Cellular stages of root formation, root system quality and survival of Pinus elliottii var. elliottii x P. caribaea var. hondurensis cuttings in different temperature environments.

Time to first root in cuttings varies under different environmental conditions and understanding these differences is critical for optimizing propagation of commercial forestry species. Temperature environment (15, 25, 30 or 35 +/- A 2A degrees C) had no effect on the cellular stages in root formation of the Slash x Caribbean Pine hybrid over 16 weeks as determined by histology. Initially callus cells formed in the cortex, then tracheids developed and formed primordia leading to external roots. However, speed of development followed a growth curve with the fastest development occurring at 25A degrees C and slowest at 15A degrees C with rooting percentages at week 12 of 80 and 0% respectively. Cutting survival was good in the three cooler temperature regimes (> 80%) but reduced to 59% at 35A degrees C. Root formation appeared to be dependant on the initiation of tracheids because all un-rooted cuttings had callus tissue but no tracheids, irrespective of temperature treatment and clone.

Domestication for Conservation of an Endangered Species: The Case of the Wollemi Pine

A small population of tall slender conifers was discovered in 1994 in a deep rainforest canyon of the Wollemi National Park, New SouthWales, Australia. The living trees closely resembled fossils that were more than 65 million years old, and this ‘living fossil’ was recognised as a third extant genus in the Araucariaceae (Araucaria, Agathis and now Wollemia). The species was named the Wollemi pine (W. nobilis). Extensive searches uncovered very few populations, with the total number of adult trees being less than 100. Ex situ collections were quickly established in Sydney as part of the Wollemi Pine Recovery Plan. The majority of the ex situ population was later transferred to our custom-built facility in Queensland for commercial multiplication. Domestication has relied very heavily on the species’ amenability to vegetative propagation because seed collection from the natural populations is dangerous, expensive, and undesirable for conservation reasons. Early propagation success was poor, with only about 25% of cuttings producing roots. However, small increases in propagation success have a very large impact on a domestication program because plant production can be modelled on an exponential curve where each rooted cutting develops into a mother plant that, in turn, provides more rooted cuttings. An extensive research program elevated rooting percentages to greater than 80% and also provided in vitro methods for plant multiplication. These successes have enabled international release of the Wollemi pine as a new and attractive species for ornamental horticulture.

Cellular stages of root formation, root system quality and survival of Pinuselliottii var. elliottii x P. caribaea var. hondurensis cuttings in different temperature environments.

Time to first root in cuttings varies under different environmental conditions and understanding these differences is critical for optimizing propagation of commercial forestry species. Temperature environment (15, 25, 30 or 352C) had no effect on the cellular stages in root formation of the Slash * Caribbean Pine hybrid over 16 weeks as determined by histology. Initially callus cells formed in the cortex, then tracheids developed and formed primordia leading to external roots. However, speed of development followed a growth curve with the fastest development occurring at 25C and slowest at 15C with rooting percentages at week 12 of 80 and 0% respectively. Cutting survival was good in the three cooler temperature regimes (>80%) but reduced to 59% at 35C. Root formation appeared to be dependant on the initiation of tracheids because all un-rooted cuttings had callus tissue but no tracheids, irrespective of temperature treatment and clone.

Fire resistance of light gauge steel frame wall systems lined with gypsum plasterboards

Light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems are increasingly used in residential and commercial buildings as load bearing and non-load bearing elements. Conventionally, the fire resistance ratings of such building elements are determined using approximate prescriptive methods based on limited standard fire tests. However, recent studies have shown that in some instances real building fire time-temperature curves could be more severe than the standard fire curve, in terms of maximum temperature and rate of temperature rise. This has caused problems for safe evacuation and rescue activities, and in some instances has also lead to the collapse of buildings earlier than the prescribed fire resistance. Therefore a detailed research study into the performance of LSF wall systems under both standard fire and realistic fire conditions was undertaken using full scale fire tests to understand the fire performance of different LSF wall configurations. Both load bearing and non-load bearing full scale fire tests were performed on LSF walls configurations which included single layer, double layer, externally insulated wall panels made up of different steel sections and thicknesses of gypsum plasterboards. The non-load bearing fire test results were utilized to understand the factors affecting the fire resistance of LSF walls, while loading bearing fire test results led to development of simplified methods to predict the fire resistance ratings of load bearing LSF walls exposed to both standard and realistic design fires. This paper presents the results of full scale experimental study and highlights the effects of standard and realistic fire conditions on fire performance of LSF walls.

Fatigue capacity of cold-formed steel roof battens under cyclic wind uplift loads

Steel roofs made of thin cold-formed steel roof claddings and battens are widely used in low-rise residential and industrial buildings all around the world. However, they suffer from premature localised pull-through failures in the batten to rafter connections during high wind events. A recent study proposed a suitable design equation for the pull-through failures of thin steel roof battens. However, it was limited to static wind uplift loading. In contrast, most cyclone/storm events produce cyclic wind uplift forces on roofs for a significantly long period, thus causing premature fatigue pull-through failures at lower loads. Therefore, a series of constant amplitude cyclic load tests was conducted on small and full scale roof panels made of a commonly used industrial roof batten to develop their S-N curves. A series of multi-level cyclic tests, including the recently introduced low-high-low (LHL) fatigue loading test, was also undertaken to simulate a design cyclone. Using the S-N curves, the static pull-through design capacity equation was modified to include the effects of fatigue. Applicability of Miner’s rule was evaluated in order to predict the fatigue damage caused by multi-level cyclic tests such as the LHL test, and suitable modifications were made. The combined use of the modified Miner’s law and the S-N curve of roof battens will allow a conservative estimation of the fatigue design capacity of roof battens without conducting the LHL tests simulating a design cyclone. This paper presents the details of this study, and the results.

Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

Prediction of Compressibility of Overconsolidated Uncemented Soils

Overconsolidated soils exhibit a bilinear e-log p relationship. During virgin compression, microstructural units form larger stable groups, thereby reducing the operating specific surface and, in turn, net osmotic repulsive forces in the soil. The rebound portion of the e-log p curve is consequently flatter. The generalized relationship for compressibility of uncemented soils in the overconsolidated state has been developed in the form of e/eL = 1.122 = 0.188 log pc - 0.0463 log p in which e/eL is the generalized soil state parameter, pc is the preconsolidation pressure in kPa, p is the effective overburden pressure in kPa, e is the in situ void ratio, and eL is the void ratio corresponding to the liquid limit water content (wLG). This relationship can be usefully employed to predict both the preconsolidation pressure and compressibility responses of overconsolidated uncemented soils.

Dosage Compensation And Sex Determination In Drosophila - Mechanism Of Measurement Of The X/A Ratio

We propose a molecular mechanism for the intra-cellular measurement of the ratio of the number of X chromosomes to the number of sets of autosomes, a process central to both sex determination and dosage compensation in Drosophila melanogaster. In addition to the two loci, da and Sxl, which have been shown by Cline (Genetics, 90, 683, 1978)and others to be involved in these processes, we postulate two other loci, one autosomal (ω) and the other, X-linked (π). The product of the autosomal locus da stimulates ω and initiates synthesis of a limited quantity of repressor. Sxl and π ,both of which are X-linked, compete for this repressor as well as for RNA polymerase. It is assumed that Sxl has lower affinity than π for repressor as well as polymerase and that the binding of polymerase to one of these sites modulates the binding affinity of the other site for the enzyme. It can be shown that as a result of these postulated interactions transcription from the Sxl site is proportional to the X/A ratio such that the levels of Sxl+ product are low in males, high in females and intermediate in the intersexes. If, as proposed by Cline, the Sxl- product is an inhibitor of X chromosome activity, this would result in dosage compensation. The model leads to the conclusion that high levels of Sxl+ product promote a female phenotype and low levels, a male phenotype. One interesting consequence of the assumptions on which the model is based is that the level of Sxl+ product in the cell, when examined as a function of increasing repressor concentration, first goes up and then decreases, yielding a bell-shaped curve. This feature of the model provides an explanation for some of the remarkable interactions among mutants at the Sxl, da and mle loci and leads to several predictions. The proposed mechanism may also have relevance to certain other problems, such as size regulation during development, which seem to involve measurement of ratios at the cellular level.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Curves on threefolds and a conjecture of Griffiths-Harris

We prove that any arithmetically Gorenstein curve on a smooth, general hypersurface of degree at least 6, is a complete intersection. This gives a characterisation of complete intersection curves on general type hypersurfaces in . We also verify that certain 1-cycles on a general quintic hypersurface are non-trivial elements of the Griffiths group.