Air-Sea Interactions During the Passage of a Winter Storm Over the Gulf Stream: A Three-Dimensional Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Study

A three-dimensional, regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model with full physics is developed to study air-sea interactions during winter storms off the U. S. east coast. Because of the scarcity of open ocean observations, models such as this offer valuable opportunities to investigate how oceanic forcing drives atmospheric circulation and vice versa. The study presented here considers conditions of strong atmospheric forcing (high wind speeds) and strong oceanic forcing (significant sea surface temperature (SST) gradients). A simulated atmospheric cyclone evolves in a manner consistent with Eta reanalysis, and the simulated air-sea heat and momentum exchanges strongly affect the circulations in both the atmosphere and the ocean. For the simulated cyclone of 19-20 January 1998, maximum ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes first appear over the Gulf Stream in the South Atlantic Bight, and this results in rapid deepening of the cyclone off the Carolina coast. As the cyclone moves eastward, the heat flux maximum shifts into the region near Cape Hatteras and later northeast of Hatteras, where it enhances the wind locally. The oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing is closely related to the wind direction. Southerly and southwesterly winds tend to strengthen surface currents in the Gulf Stream, whereas northeasterly winds weaken the surface currents in the Gulf Stream and generate southwestward flows on the shelf. The oceanic feedback to the atmosphere moderates the cyclone strength. Compared with a simulation in which the oceanic model always passes the initial SST to the atmospheric model, the coupled simulation in which the oceanic model passes the evolving SST to the atmospheric model produces higher ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux near Gulf Stream meander troughs. This is due to wind-driven lateral shifts of the stream, which in turn enhance the local northeasterly winds. Away from the Gulf Stream the coupled simulation produces surface winds that are 5 similar to 10% weaker. Differences in the surface ocean currents between these two experiments are significant on the shelf and in the open ocean.

An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

ANALYTICAL MODELS OF EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES. I. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS VIA THE SHALLOW WATER SYSTEM

Within the context of exoplanetary atmospheres, we present a comprehensive linear analysis of forced, damped, magnetized shallow water systems, exploring the effects of dimensionality, geometry (Cartesian, pseudo-spherical, and spherical), rotation, magnetic tension, and hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction. Across a broad range of conditions, we find that the key governing equation for atmospheres and quantum harmonic oscillators are identical, even when forcing (stellar irradiation), sources of friction (molecular viscosity, Rayleigh drag, and magnetic drag), and magnetic tension are included. The global atmospheric structure is largely controlled by a single key parameter that involves the Rossby and Prandtl numbers. This near-universality breaks down when either molecular viscosity or magnetic drag acts non-uniformly across latitude or a poloidal magnetic field is present, suggesting that these effects will introduce qualitative changes to the familiar chevron-shaped feature witnessed in simulations of atmospheric circulation. We also find that hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction have dissimilar phase signatures and affect the flow in fundamentally different ways, implying that using Rayleigh drag to mimic magnetic drag is inaccurate. We exhaustively lay down the theoretical formalism (dispersion relations, governing equations, and time-dependent wave solutions) for a broad suite of models. In all situations, we derive the steady state of an atmosphere, which is relevant to interpreting infrared phase and eclipse maps of exoplanetary atmospheres. We elucidate a pinching effect that confines the atmospheric structure to be near the equator. Our suite of analytical models may be used to develop decisively physical intuition and as a reference point for three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric circulation.

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

Comparison of theoretical fixation stability of three devices employed in medial opening wedge high tibial osteotomy: a finite element analysis.

BACKGROUND Medial open wedge high tibial osteotomy is a well-established procedure for the treatment of unicompartmental osteoarthritis and symptomatic varus malalignment. We hypothesized that different fixation devices generate different fixation stability profiles for the various wedge sizes in a finite element (FE) analysis. METHODS Four types of fixation were compared: 1) first and 2) second generation Puddu plates, and 3) TomoFix plate with and 4) without bone graft. Cortical and cancellous bone was modelled and five different opening wedge sizes were studied for each model. Outcome measures included: 1) stresses in bone, 2) relative displacement of the proximal and distal tibial fragments, 3) stresses in the plates, 4) stresses on the upper and lower screw surfaces in the screw channels. RESULTS The highest load for all fixation types occurred in the plate axis. For the vast majority of the wedge sizes and fixation types the shear stress (von Mises stress) was dominating in the bone independent of fixation type. The relative displacements of the tibial fragments were low (in μm range). With an increasing wedge size this displacement tended to increase for both Puddu plates and the TomoFix plate with bone graft. For the TomoFix plate without bone graft a rather opposite trend was observed.For all fixation types the occurring stresses at the screw-bone contact areas pulled at the screws and exceeded the allowable threshold of 1.2 MPa for at least one screw surface. Of the six screw surfaces that were studied, the TomoFix plate with bone graft showed a stress excess of one out of twelve and without bone graft, five out of twelve. With the Puddu plates, an excess stress occurred in the majority of screw surfaces. CONCLUSIONS The different fixation devices generate different fixation stability profiles for different opening wedge sizes. Based on the computational simulations, none of the studied osteosynthesis fixation types warranted an intransigent full weight bearing per se. The highest fixation stability was observed for the TomoFix plates and the lowest for the first generation Puddu plate. These findings were revealed in theoretical models and need to be validated in controlled clinical settings.

Characterization of eosinophilic esophagitis murine models using optical coherence tomography.

Pre-clinical studies using murine models are critical for understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying immune-mediated disorders such as Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). In this study, an optical coherence tomography (OCT) system capable of providing three-dimensional images with axial and transverse resolutions of 5 µm and 10 µm, respectively, was utilized to obtain esophageal images from a murine model of EoE-like disease ex vivo. Structural changes in the esophagus of wild-type (Tslpr(+/+) ) and mutant (Tslpr(-/-) ) mice with EoE-like disease were quantitatively evaluated and food impaction sites in the esophagus of diseased mice were monitored using OCT. Here, the capability of OCT as a label-free imaging tool devoid of tissue-processing artifacts to effectively characterize murine EoE-like disease models has been demonstrated.

Comparison of three different brushing techniques to isolate and culture primary nasal epithelial cells from human subjects.

PURPOSE Primary nasal epithelial cells are used for diagnostic purposes in clinical routine and have been shown to be good surrogate models for bronchial epithelial cells in studies of airway inflammation and remodeling. We aimed at comparing different instruments allowing isolation of nasal epithelial cells. METHODS Primary airway epithelial cell cultures were established using cells acquired from the inferior surface of the middle turbinate of both nostrils. Three different instruments to isolate nasal cells were used: homemade cytology brush, nasal swab, and curette. Cell count, viability, time until a confluent cell layer was reached, and success rate in establishing cell cultures were evaluated. A standard numeric pain intensity scale was used to assess the acceptability of each instrument. RESULTS Sixty healthy adults (median with interquartile range [IQR] age of 31 [26-37] years) participated in the study. Higher number of cells (×10(5) cells/ml) was obtained using brushes (9.8 [5.9-33.5]) compared to swabs (2.4 [1.5-3.9], p < 0.0001) and curettes (5.5 [4.4-6.9], p < 0.01). Cell viability was similar between groups. Cells obtained by brushes had the fastest growth rate, and the success rate in establishing primary cell cultures was highest with brushes (90% vs. 65% for swabs and 70% for curettes). Pain was highest with curettes (VAS score 4.0 [3.0-5.0] out of 10). The epithelial phenotype of the cultures was confirmed through cytokeratin and E-cadherin staining. CONCLUSIONS All three types of instruments allow collection and growth of human nasal epithelial cells with good acceptability to study participants. The most efficient instrument is the nasal brush.

The spatial distribution of water in the inner coma of Comet 9P/Tempel 1: Comparison between models and observations

The near nucleus coma of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 has been simulated with the 3D Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code PDSC++ (Su, C.-C. [2013]. Parallel Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) Methods for Modeling Rarefied Gas Dynamics. PhD Thesis, National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan) and the derived column densities have been compared to observations of the water vapour distribution found by using infrared imaging spectrometer on the Deep Impact spacecraft (Feaga, L.M., A’Hearn, M.F., Sunshine, J.M., Groussin, O., Farnham, T.L. [2007]. Icarus 191(2), 134–145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2007.04.038). Modelled total production rates are also compared to various observations made at the time of the Deep Impact encounter. Three different models were tested. For all models, the shape model constructed from the Deep Impact observations by Thomas et al. (Thomas, P.C., Veverka, J., Belton, M.J.S., Hidy, A., A’Hearn, M.F., Farnham, T.L., et al. [2007]. Icarus, 187(1), 4–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2006.12.013) was used. Outgassing depending only on the cosine of the solar insolation angle on each shape model facet is shown to provide an unsatisfactory model. Models constructed on the basis of active areas suggested by Kossacki and Szutowicz (Kossacki, K., Szutowicz, S. [2008]. Icarus, 195(2), 705–724. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2007.12.014) are shown to be superior. The Kossacki and Szutowicz model, however, also shows deficits which we have sought to improve upon. For the best model we investigate the properties of the outflow.

Three-dimensional printing for perioperative planning of complex aortic arch surgery

Purpose In this study, we show the use of three-dimensional printing models for preoperative planning of surgery for patients with complex aortic arch anomalies. Description A 70-year-old man with an extensively arteriosclerotic aneurysm reaching from the ascending aorta to the descending aorta was referred to our center for complete aortic arch replacement. We visualized and reconstructed computed tomography data of the patient and fabricated a flexible three-dimensional model of the aortic arch including the aneurysm. Evaluation This model was very helpful for the preoperative decision making and planning of the frozen elephant trunk procedure owing to the exact and lifelike illustration of the native aortic arch. Conclusions Three-dimensional models are helpful in preoperative planning and postoperative evaluation of frozen elephant trunk procedures in patients with complex aortic anatomy.

Reconstruction of 3D Vertebral Models from a Single 2D Lateral Fluoroscopic Image

Accurate three-dimensional (3D) models of lumbar vertebrae are required for image-based 3D kinematics analysis. MRI or CT datasets are frequently used to derive 3D models but have the disadvantages that they are expensive, time-consuming or involving ionizing radiation (e.g., CT acquisition). In this chapter, we present an alternative technique that can reconstruct a scaled 3D lumbar vertebral model from a single two-dimensional (2D) lateral fluoroscopic image and a statistical shape model. Cadaveric studies are conducted to verify the reconstruction accuracy by comparing the surface models reconstructed from a single lateral fluoroscopic image to the ground truth data from 3D CT segmentation. A mean reconstruction error between 0.7 and 1.4 mm was found.

Search for strong production of supersymmetric particles in final states with missing transverse momentum and at least three b-jets at √s= 8 TeV proton-proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

This paper reports the results of a search for strong production of supersymmetric particles in 20.1 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8TeV using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The search is performed separately in events with either zero or at least one high-pT lepton (electron or muon), large missing transverse momentum, high jet multiplicity and at least three jets identified as originated from the fragmentation of a b-quark. No excess is observed with respect to the Standard Model predictions. The results are interpreted in the context of several supersymmetric models involving gluinos and scalar top and bottom quarks, as well as a mSUGRA/CMSSM model. Gluino masses up to 1340 GeV are excluded, depending on the model, significantly extending the previous ATLAS limits.

Search for supersymmetry at √8=8 TeV in final states with jets and two same-sign leptons or three leptons with the ATLAS detector

A search for strongly produced supersymmetric particles is conducted using signatures involving multiple energetic jets and either two isolated leptons (e or μ) with the same electric charge, or at least three isolated leptons. The search also utilises jets originating from b-quarks, missing transverse momentum and other observables to extend its sensitivity. The analysis uses a data sample corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 of ps = 8TeV proton-proton collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2012. No deviation from the Standard Model expectation is observed. New or significantly improved exclusion limits are set on a wide variety of supersymmetric models in which the lightest squark can be of the first, second or third generations, and in which R-parity can be conserved or violated.

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in sqrts = 8TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three leptons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 20.3 fb−1 of √s = 8TeV proton-proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with the Standard Model expectations and limits are set in R-parity-conserving phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Models and in simplified supersymmetric models, significantly extending previous results. For simplified supersymmetric models of direct chargino (˜χ±1 ) and next-to-lightest neutralino (˜χ02) production with decays to lightest neutralino(˜χ01) via either all three generations of sleptons, staus only, gauge bosons, or Higgs bosons, ˜χ±1 and ˜χ02 masses are excluded up to 700GeV, 380GeV, 345GeV, or 148GeV respectively, for a massless ˜χ01.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.