960 resultados para Théorie générale of stochastic processes
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THESIS ABSTRACT Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals are the consequence of changing P-T-X-conditions. The thesis presented here focuses on processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments using a combination of geochemical analytics (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data, and numerical models. It is shown, that a combination of textural modeling and stable isotope analysis allows a distinction between several possible reaction paths for olivine growth in a siliceous dolomite contact aureole. It is suggested that olivine forms directly from dolomite and quartz. The formation of olivine from this metastable reaction implies metamorphic crystallization far from equilibrium. As a major consequence, the spatial distribution of metamorphic mineral assemblages in a contact aureole cannot be interpreted as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock specimen, because each rock undergoes a different reaction path, depending on temperature, heating rate, and fluid-infiltration rate. A detailed calcite-dolomite thermometry study was initiated on multiple scales ranging from aureole scale to the size of individual crystals. Quantitative forward models were developed to evaluate the effect of growth zoning, volume diffusion and the formation of submicroscopic exsolution lamellae (<1 µm) on the measured Mg-distribution in individual calcite crystals and compare the modeling results to field data. This study concludes that Mg-distributions in calcite grains of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole are the consequence of rapid crystal growth in combination with diffusion and exsolution. The crystallization history of a rock is recorded in the chemical composition, the size and the distribution of its minerals. Near the Cima Uzza summit, located in the southern Adamello massif (Italy), contact metamorphic brucite bearing dolomite marbles are exposed as xenoliths surrounded by mafic intrusive rocks. Brucite is formed retrograde pseudomorphing spherical periclase crystals. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) of brucite pseudomorphs are presented for two profiles and combined with geochemistry data and petrological information. Textural analyses are combined with geochemistry data in a qualitative model that describes the formation periclase. As a major outcome, this expands the potential use of CSD's to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid-infiltration. RESUME DE LA THESE La nucléation et la croissance des minéraux métamorphiques sont la conséquence de changements des conditions de pression, température et composition chimique du système (PT-X). Cette thèse s'intéresse aux processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux au cours d'un épisode de métamorphisme de contact, en utilisant la géochimie analytique (composition chimique, isotopique et en éléments traces), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique. Il est montré que la combinaison d'un modèle textural avec des analyses en isotopes stables permet de distinguer plusieurs chemins de réactions possibles conduisant à la croissance de l'olivine dans une auréole de contact riche en Silice et dolomite. Il est suggéré que l'olivine se forme directement à partir de la dolomie et du quartz. Cette réaction métastable de formation de l'olivine implique une cristallisation métamorphique loin de l'équilibre. La principale conséquence est que la distribution spatiale des assemblages de minéraux métamorphiques dans une auréole de contact ne peut pas être considérée comme un témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un type de roche donné, puisque chaque type de roche suit différents chemins de réactions, en fonction de la température, la vitesse de réchauffement et le taux d'infiltration du fluide. Une étude thermométrique calcite-dolomite détaillée a été réalisée à diverses échelles, depuis l'échelle de l'auréole de contact jusqu'à l'échelle du cristal. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont été développés pour évaluer l'effet des zonations de croissance, de la diffusion volumique et de la formation de lamelles d'exsolution submicroscopiques (<1µm) sur la distribution du magnésium mesuré dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats de ce modèle ont été comparés ä des échantillons naturels. Cette étude montre que la distribution du Mg dans les grains de calcite de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA) résulte d'une croissance cristalline rapide, associée aux processus de diffusion et d'exsolution. L'histoire de cristallisation d'une roche est enregistrée dans la composition chimique, la taille et la distribution de ses minéraux. Près du sommet Cima Uzza situé au sud du massif d'Adamello (Italie), des marbres dolomitiques à brucite du métamorphisme de contact forment des xénolithes dans une intrusion mafique. La brucite constitue des pseudomorphes rétrogrades du périclase. Les distributions de taille des cristaux (CSD) des pseudomorphes de brucite sont présentées pour deux profiles et sont combinées aux données géochimiques et pétrologiques. Les analyses textorales sont combinées aux données géochimiques dans un modèle qualitatif qui décrit la formation du périclase. Ceci élargit l'utilisation potentielle de la C5D aux systèmes de formation de minéraux controlés par les infiltrations fluides. THESIS ABSTRACT (GENERAL PUBLIC) Rock textures are essentially the result of a complex interaction of nucleation, growth and deformation as a function of changing physical conditions such as pressure and temperature. Igneous and metamorphic textures are especially attractive to study the different mechanisms of texture formation since most of the parameters like pressure-temperature-paths are quite well known for a variety of geological settings. The fact that textures are supposed to record the crystallization history of a rock traditionally allowed them to be used for geothermobarometry or dating. During the last decades the focus of metamorphic petrology changed from a static point of view, i.e. the representation of a texture as one single point in the petrogenetic grid towards a more dynamic view, where multiple metamorphic processes govern the texture formation, including non-equilibrium processes. This thesis tries to advance our understanding on the processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments and their dynamic interplay by using a combination of geochemical analyses (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data and numerical models. In a first part the thesis describes the formation of metamorphic olivine porphyroblast in the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole (USA). It is shown that not the commonly assumed succession of equilibrium reactions along a T-t-path formed the textures present in the rocks today, but rather the presence of a meta-stable reaction is responsible for forming the olivine porphyroblast. Consequently, the spatial distribution of metamorphic minerals within a contact aureole can no longer be regarded as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock sample. Metamorphic peak temperatures for samples of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole were determined using calcite-dolomite. This geothermometer is based on the temperature-dependent exchange of Mg between calcite and dolomite. The purpose of the second part of this thesis was to explain the interfering systematic scatter of measured Mg-content on different scales and thus to clarify the interpretation of metamorphic temperatures recorded in carbonates. Numerical quantitative forward models are used to evaluate the effect of several processes on the distribution of magnesium in individual calcite crystals and the modeling results were then compared to measured field. Information about the crystallization history is not only recorded in the chemical composition of grains, like isotope composition or mineral zoning. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) provide essential information about the complex interaction of nucleation and growth of minerals. CSD's of brucite pseudomorphs formed retrograde after periclase of the southern Adamello massif (Italy) are presented. A combination of the textural 3D-information with geochemistry data is then used to evaluate reaction kinetics and to constrain the actual reaction mechanism for the formation of periclase. The reaction is shown to be the consequence of the infiltration of a limited amount of a fluid phase at high temperatures. The composition of this fluid phase is in large disequilibrium with the rest of the rock resulting in very fast reaction rates. RESUME DE LA THESE POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC: La texture d'une roche résulte de l'interaction complexe entre les processus de nucléation, croissance et déformation, en fonction des variations de conditions physiques telles que la pression et la température. Les textures ignées et métamorphiques présentent un intérêt particulier pour l'étude des différents mécanismes à l'origine de ces textures, puisque la plupart des paramètres comme les chemin pression-température sont relativement bien contraints dans la plupart des environnements géologiques. Le fait que les textures soient supposées enregistrer l'histoire de cristallisation des roches permet leur utilisation pour la datation et la géothermobarométrie. Durant les dernières décennies, la recherche en pétrologie métamorphique a évolué depuis une visualisation statique, c'est-à-dire qu'une texture donnée correspondait à un point unique de la grille pétrogénétique, jusqu'à une visualisation plus dynamique, où les multiples processus métamorphiques qui gouvernent 1a formation d'une texture incluent des processus hors équilibre. Cette thèse a pour but d'améliorer les connaissances actuelles sur les processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux lors d'épisodes de métamorphisme de contact et l'interaction dynamique existant entre nucléation et croissance. Pour cela, les analyses géochimiques (compositions chimiques en éléments majeurs et traces et composition isotopique), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique ont été combinés. Dans la première partie, cette thèse décrit la formation de porphyroblastes d'olivine métamorphique dans l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA). Il est montré que la succession généralement admise des réactions d'équilibre le long d'un chemin T-t ne peut pas expliquer les textures présentes dans les roches aujourd'hui. Cette thèse montre qu'il s'agirait plutôt d'une réaction métastable qui soit responsable de la formation des porphyroblastes d'olivine. En conséquence, la distribution spatiale des minéraux métamorphiques dans l'auréole de contact ne peut plus être interprétée comme le témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un échantillon unique de roche. Les pics de température des échantillons de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak ont été déterminés grâce au géothermomètre calcite-dolomite. Celui-ci est basé sur l'échange du magnésium entre la calcite et la dolomite, qui est fonction de la température. Le but de la deuxième partie de cette thèse est d'expliquer la dispersion systématique de la composition en magnésium à différentes échelles, et ainsi d'améliorer l'interprétation des températures du métamorphisme enregistrées dans les carbonates. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont permis d'évaluer le rôle de différents processus sur la distribution du magnésium dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats des modèles ont été comparés aux échantillons naturels. La composition chimique des grains, comme la composition isotopique ou la zonation minérale, n'est pas le seul témoin de l'histoire de la cristallisation. La distribution de la taille des cristaux (CSD) fournit des informations essentielles sur les interactions entre nucléation et croissance des minéraux. La CSD des pseudomorphes de brucite retrograde formés après le périclase dans le sud du massif Adamello (Italie) est présentée dans la troisième partie. La combinaison entre les données textorales en trois dimensions et les données géochimiques a permis d'évaluer les cinétiques de réaction et de contraindre les mécanismes conduisant à la formation du périclase. Cette réaction est présentée comme étant la conséquence de l'infiltration d'une quantité limitée d'une phase fluide à haute température. La composition de cette phase fluide est en grand déséquilibre avec le reste de la roche, ce qui permet des cinétiques de réactions très rapides.
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This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.
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This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.
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Here I develop a model of a radiative-convective atmosphere with both radiative and convective schemes highly simplified. The atmospheric absorption of radiation at selective wavelengths makes use of constant mass absorption coefficients in finite width spectral bands. The convective regime is introduced by using a prescribed lapse rate in the troposphere. The main novelty of the radiative-convective model developed here is that it is solved without using any angular approximation for the radiation field. The solution obtained in the purely radiation mode (i. e. with convection ignored) leads to multiple equilibria of stable states, being very similar to some results recently found in simple models of planetary atmospheres. However, the introduction of convective processes removes the multiple equilibria of stable states. This shows the importance of taking convective processes into account even for qualitative analyses of planetary atmosphere
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Recent experiments showed that the linear double-stranded DNA in bacteriophage capsids is both highly knotted and neatly structured. What is the physical basis of this organization? Here we show evidence from stochastic simulation techniques that suggests that a key element is the tendency of contacting DNA strands to order, as in cholesteric liquid crystals. This interaction favors their preferential juxtaposition at a small twist angle, thus promoting an approximately nematic (and apolar) local order. The ordering effect dramatically impacts the geometry and topology of DNA inside phages. Accounting for this local potential allows us to reproduce the main experimental data on DNA organization in phages, including the cryo-EM observations and detailed features of the spectrum of DNA knots formed inside viral capsids. The DNA knots we observe are strongly delocalized and, intriguingly, this is shown not to interfere with genome ejection out of the phage.
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Primary tumor growth induces host tissue responses that are believed to support and promote tumor progression. Identification of the molecular characteristics of the tumor microenvironment and elucidation of its crosstalk with tumor cells may therefore be crucial for improving our understanding of the processes implicated in cancer progression, identifying potential therapeutic targets, and uncovering stromal gene expression signatures that may predict clinical outcome. A key issue to resolve, therefore, is whether the stromal response to tumor growth is largely a generic phenomenon, irrespective of the tumor type or whether the response reflects tumor-specific properties. To address similarity or distinction of stromal gene expression changes during cancer progression, oligonucleotide-based Affymetrix microarray technology was used to compare the transcriptomes of laser-microdissected stromal cells derived from invasive human breast and prostate carcinoma. Invasive breast and prostate cancer-associated stroma was observed to display distinct transcriptomes, with a limited number of shared genes. Interestingly, both breast and prostate tumor-specific dysregulated stromal genes were observed to cluster breast and prostate cancer patients, respectively, into two distinct groups with statistically different clinical outcomes. By contrast, a gene signature that was common to the reactive stroma of both tumor types did not have survival predictive value. Univariate Cox analysis identified genes whose expression level was most strongly associated with patient survival. Taken together, these observations suggest that the tumor microenvironment displays distinct features according to the tumor type that provides survival-predictive value.
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Switching from one functional or cognitive operation to another is thought to rely on executive/control processes. The efficacy of these processes may depend on the extent of overlap between neural circuitry mediating the different tasks; more effective task preparation (and by extension smaller switch costs) is achieved when this overlap is small. We investigated the performance costs associated with switching tasks and/or switching sensory modalities. Participants discriminated either the identity or spatial location of objects that were presented either visually or acoustically. Switch costs between tasks were significantly smaller when the sensory modality of the task switched versus when it repeated. This was the case irrespective of whether the pre-trial cue informed participants only of the upcoming task, but not sensory modality (Experiment 1) or whether the pre-trial cue was informative about both the upcoming task and sensory modality (Experiment 2). In addition, in both experiments switch costs between the senses were positively correlated when the sensory modality of the task repeated across trials and not when it switched. The collective evidence supports the independence of control processes mediating task switching and modality switching and also the hypothesis that switch costs reflect competitive interference between neural circuits.
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This study examined the interrelatedness of mother-infant and father-infant relationships as they develop over the first 4 months postpartum as well as the dynamics used by the couple to balance these relationships. First-time mother-father couples (n = 18) were interviewed separately at 1, 6, and 16 weeks postpartum using the Parent-Infant Relationship Interview. The data were analyzed using in-depth qualitative strategies. The parents' core themes of their early family relationships ranged from an undifferentiated unit at 1 week, to being a highly disorganized unit at 6 weeks, to a more integrated unit at 16 weeks. These results suggest that one should be thinking of early family relationships and parenting in terms of "messy processes" out of which new ways of being together are created. This disorganization plays a fundamental role in the establishment of early family relationships and warrants further empirical and clinical attention.
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Normal ageing is associated with characteristic changes in brain microstructure. Although in vivo neuroimaging captures spatial and temporal patterns of age-related changes of anatomy at the macroscopic scale, our knowledge of the underlying (patho)physiological processes at cellular and molecular levels is still limited. The aim of this study is to explore brain tissue properties in normal ageing using quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) alongside conventional morphological assessment. Using a whole-brain approach in a cohort of 26 adults, aged 18-85years, we performed voxel-based morphometric (VBM) analysis and voxel-based quantification (VBQ) of diffusion tensor, magnetization transfer (MT), R1, and R2* relaxation parameters. We found age-related reductions in cortical and subcortical grey matter volume paralleled by changes in fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), MT and R2*. The latter were regionally specific depending on their differential sensitivity to microscopic tissue properties. VBQ of white matter revealed distinct anatomical patterns of age-related change in microstructure. Widespread and profound reduction in MT contrasted with local FA decreases paralleled by MD increases. R1 reductions and R2* increases were observed to a smaller extent in overlapping occipito-parietal white matter regions. We interpret our findings, based on current biophysical models, as a fingerprint of age-dependent brain atrophy and underlying microstructural changes in myelin, iron deposits and water. The VBQ approach we present allows for systematic unbiased exploration of the interaction between imaging parameters and extends current methods for detection of neurodegenerative processes in the brain. The demonstrated parameter-specific distribution patterns offer insights into age-related brain structure changes in vivo and provide essential baseline data for studying disease against a background of healthy ageing.
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In this work we analyze how patchy distributions of CO2 and brine within sand reservoirs may lead to significant attenuation and velocity dispersion effects, which in turn may have a profound impact on surface seismic data. The ultimate goal of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of these processes within the framework of the seismic monitoring of CO2 sequestration, a key strategy to mitigate global warming. We first carry out a Monte Carlo analysis to study the statistical behavior of attenuation and velocity dispersion of compressional waves traveling through rocks with properties similar to those at the Utsira Sand, Sleipner field, containing quasi-fractal patchy distributions of CO2 and brine. These results show that the mean patch size and CO2 saturation play key roles in the observed wave-induced fluid flow effects. The latter can be remarkably important when CO2 concentrations are low and mean patch sizes are relatively large. To analyze these effects on the corresponding surface seismic data, we perform numerical simulations of wave propagation considering reservoir models and CO2 accumulation patterns similar to the CO2 injection site in the Sleipner field. These numerical experiments suggest that wave-induced fluid flow effects may produce changes in the reservoir's seismic response, modifying significantly the main seismic attributes usually employed in the characterization of these environments. Consequently, the determination of the nature of the fluid distributions as well as the proper modeling of the seismic data constitute important aspects that should not be ignored in the seismic monitoring of CO2 sequestration problems.
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Shape-dependent local differentials in cell proliferation are considered to be a major driving mechanism of structuring processes in vivo, such as embryogenesis, wound healing, and angiogenesis. However, the specific biophysical signaling by which changes in cell shape contribute to cell cycle regulation remains poorly understood. Here, we describe our study of the roles of nuclear volume and cytoskeletal mechanics in mediating shape control of proliferation in single endothelial cells. Micropatterned adhesive islands were used to independently control cell spreading and elongation. We show that, irrespective of elongation, nuclear volume and apparent chromatin decondensation of cells in G1 systematically increased with cell spreading and highly correlated with DNA synthesis (percent of cells in the S phase). In contrast, cell elongation dramatically affected the organization of the actin cytoskeleton, markedly reduced both cytoskeletal stiffness (measured dorsally with atomic force microscopy) and contractility (measured ventrally with traction microscopy), and increased mechanical anisotropy, without affecting either DNA synthesis or nuclear volume. Our results reveal that the nuclear volume in G1 is predictive of the proliferative status of single endothelial cells within a population, whereas cell stiffness and contractility are not. These findings show that the effects of cell mechanics in shape control of proliferation are far more complex than a linear or straightforward relationship. Our data are consistent with a mechanism by which spreading of cells in G1 partially enhances proliferation by inducing nuclear swelling and decreasing chromatin condensation, thereby rendering DNA more accessible to the replication machinery.
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The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.
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Aim To improve our understanding of how biological communities assemble, we investigated changes in bumblebee communities in space along an elevation gradient. We assessed how much deterministic abiotic and biotic factors shape community assembly. We focused on proboscis length (influencing the species' dietary regime) and phylogenetic relatedness to investigate if competition and environmental filtering occur in more and less productive climates, respectively. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods We recorded bumblebee species in 149 plots along a 1800-m wide elevation gradient. We contrasted two major clades of bumblebees, a short-tongued and a long-tongued clade. We calculated the phylogenetic and proboscis-length diversity of the bumblebee communities and compared these observed data with a random distribution to detect clustering likely to be caused by environmental filtering or overdispersion likely to be caused by competition. We compared the prevalence of clustered and overdispersed communities along the gradients of plant species richness (biotic) and temperature (abiotic). Results Under colder conditions, where plant species richness is lower and floral resources are scarcer, the clade with shorter proboscides prevails over the clade with longer proboscides, and communities are functionally and phylogenetic clustered. Under warmer conditions, we found phylogenetic but not functional overdispersion in communities. Main conclusions We show for the first time a strong correlation between phylogenetic relatedness, proboscis length and species distribution along temperature and plant richness gradients shaping bumblebee communities. The low temperatures and low levels of plant species richness limit the dispersal of the species from the long-tongued clade, which have more specialized diets, into high-elevation areas. Competition under warmer conditions may produce communities composed of less closely related species that share distinct ecological preferences. Our empirical results corroborate theoretical expectation as well as experiments on the prevalence of deterministic processes in the most severe and most productive parts of environmental gradients.
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The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.
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The loss of biodiversity has become a matter of urgent concern and a better understanding of local drivers is crucial for conservation. Although environmental heterogeneity is recognized as an important determinant of biodiversity, this has rarely been tested using field data at management scale. We propose and provide evidence for the simple hypothesis that local species diversity is related to spatial environmental heterogeneity. Species partition the environment into habitats. Biodiversity is therefore expected to be influenced by two aspects of spatial heterogeneity: 1) the variability of environmental conditions, which will affect the number of types of habitat, and 2) the spatial configuration of habitats, which will affect the rates of ecological processes, such as dispersal or competition. Earlier, simulation experiments predicted that both aspects of heterogeneity will influence plant species richness at a particular site. For the first time, these predictions were tested for plant communities using field data, which we collected in a wooded pasture in the Swiss Jura mountains using a four-level hierarchical sampling design. Richness generally increased with increasing environmental variability and "roughness" (i.e. decreasing spatial aggregation). Effects occurred at all scales, but the nature of the effect changed with scale, suggesting a change in the underlying mechanisms, which will need to be taken into account if scaling up to larger landscapes. Although we found significant effects of environmental heterogeneity, other factors such as history could also be important determinants. If a relationship between environmental heterogeneity and species richness can be shown to be general, recently available high-resolution environmental data can be used to complement the assessment of patterns of local richness and improve the prediction of the effects of land use change based on mean site conditions or land use history.