Analysis of residuals in contingency tables: another nail in the coffin of conditional approaches to significance testing.

Omnibus tests of significance in contingency tables use statistics of the chi-square type. When the null is rejected, residual analyses are conducted to identify cells in which observed frequencies differ significantly from expected frequencies. Residual analyses are thus conditioned on a significant omnibus test. Conditional approaches have been shown to substantially alter type I error rates in cases involving t tests conditional on the results of a test of equality of variances, or tests of regression coefficients conditional on the results of tests of heteroscedasticity. We show that residual analyses conditional on a significant omnibus test are also affected by this problem, yielding type I error rates that can be up to 6 times larger than nominal rates, depending on the size of the table and the form of the marginal distributions. We explored several unconditional approaches in search for a method that maintains the nominal type I error rate and found out that a bootstrap correction for multiple testing achieved this goal. The validity of this approach is documented for two-way contingency tables in the contexts of tests of independence, tests of homogeneity, and fitting psychometric functions. Computer code in MATLAB and R to conduct these analyses is provided as Supplementary Material.

From theory-inspired to theory-based interventions : A protocol for developing and testing a methodology for linking behaviour change techniques to theoretical mechanisms of action

This research is funded by UK Medical Research Council grant number MR/L011115/1

From Theory-Inspired to Theory-Based Interventions : A Protocol for Developing and Testing a Methodology for Linking Behaviour Change Techniques to Theoretical Mechanisms of Action

This research is funded by UK Medical Research Council grant number MR/L011115/1. We would like to thank the 105 experts in behaviour change who have committed their time and offered their expertise for study 2 of this research. We are also very grateful to all those who sent us peer-reviewed behaviour change intervention descriptions for study 1. Finally, we would like thank Dr. Emma Beard and Dr. Dan Dediu for their statistical input and to all the researchers, particularly Holly Walton, who have assisted in the coding of papers for study 1.

Broadly tunable dual-wavelength InAs/GaAs quantum-dot laser for THz generation

We demonstrate an ultra-compact, room-Temperature, continuous-wave, broadly-Tunable dual-wavelength InAs/GaAs quantum-dot external-cavity diode laser in the spectral region between 1150 nm and 1301 nm with maximum output power of 280 mW. This laser source generating two modes with tunable difference-frequency (300 GHz-30 THz) has a great potential to replace commonly used bulky lasers for THz generation in photomixer devices.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

The Hurst exponent as an indicator of the behaviour of a model monopile in an ocean wave testing basin

With the importance of renewable energy well-established worldwide, and targets of such energy quantified in many cases, there exists a considerable interest in the assessment of wind and wave devices. While the individual components of these devices are often relatively well understood and the aspects of energy generation well researched, there seems to be a gap in the understanding of these devices as a whole and especially in the field of their dynamic responses under operational conditions. The mathematical modelling and estimation of their dynamic responses are more evolved but research directed towards testing of these devices still requires significant attention. Model-free indicators of the dynamic responses of these devices are important since it reflects the as-deployed behaviour of the devices when the exposure conditions are scaled reasonably correctly, along with the structural dimensions. This paper demonstrates how the Hurst exponent of the dynamic responses of a monopile exposed to different exposure conditions in an ocean wave basin can be used as a model-free indicator of various responses. The scaled model is exposed to Froude scaled waves and tested under different exposure conditions. The analysis and interpretation is carried out in a model-free and output-only environment, with only some preliminary ideas regarding the input of the system. The analysis indicates how the Hurst exponent can be an interesting descriptor to compare and contrast various scenarios of dynamic response conditions.

Open-source virtual bronchoscopy for image guided navigation

This thesis describes the development of an open-source system for virtual bronchoscopy used in combination with electromagnetic instrument tracking. The end application is virtual navigation of the lung for biopsy of early stage cancer nodules. The open-source platform 3D Slicer was used for creating freely available algorithms for virtual bronchscopy. Firstly, the development of an open-source semi-automatic algorithm for prediction of solitary pulmonary nodule malignancy is presented. This approach may help the physician decide whether to proceed with biopsy of the nodule. The user-selected nodule is segmented in order to extract radiological characteristics (i.e., size, location, edge smoothness, calcification presence, cavity wall thickness) which are combined with patient information to calculate likelihood of malignancy. The overall accuracy of the algorithm is shown to be high compared to independent experts' assessment of malignancy. The algorithm is also compared with two different predictors, and our approach is shown to provide the best overall prediction accuracy. The development of an airway segmentation algorithm which extracts the airway tree from surrounding structures on chest Computed Tomography (CT) images is then described. This represents the first fundamental step toward the creation of a virtual bronchoscopy system. Clinical and ex-vivo images are used to evaluate performance of the algorithm. Different CT scan parameters are investigated and parameters for successful airway segmentation are optimized. Slice thickness is the most affecting parameter, while variation of reconstruction kernel and radiation dose is shown to be less critical. Airway segmentation is used to create a 3D rendered model of the airway tree for virtual navigation. Finally, the first open-source virtual bronchoscopy system was combined with electromagnetic tracking of the bronchoscope for the development of a GPS-like system for navigating within the lungs. Tools for pre-procedural planning and for helping with navigation are provided. Registration between the lungs of the patient and the virtually reconstructed airway tree is achieved using a landmark-based approach. In an attempt to reduce difficulties with registration errors, we also implemented a landmark-free registration method based on a balanced airway survey. In-vitro and in-vivo testing showed good accuracy for this registration approach. The centreline of the 3D airway model is extracted and used to compensate for possible registration errors. Tools are provided to select a target for biopsy on the patient CT image, and pathways from the trachea towards the selected targets are automatically created. The pathways guide the physician during navigation, while distance to target information is updated in real-time and presented to the user. During navigation, video from the bronchoscope is streamed and presented to the physician next to the 3D rendered image. The electromagnetic tracking is implemented with 5 DOF sensing that does not provide roll rotation information. An intensity-based image registration approach is implemented to rotate the virtual image according to the bronchoscope's rotations. The virtual bronchoscopy system is shown to be easy to use and accurate in replicating the clinical setting, as demonstrated in the pre-clinical environment of a breathing lung method. Animal studies were performed to evaluate the overall system performance.

Aerodynamic Testing of Variable Message Signs

The increasing nationwide interest in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and the need for more efficient transportation have led to the expanding use of variable message sign (VMS) technology. VMS panels are substantially heavier than flat panel aluminum signs and have a larger depth (dimension parallel to the direction of traffic). The additional weight and depth can have a significant effect on the aerodynamic forces and inertial loads transmitted to the support structure. The wind induced drag forces and the response of VMS structures is not well understood. Minimum design requirements for VMS structures are contained in the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials Standard Specification for Structural Support for Highway Signs, Luminaires, and Traffic Signals (AASHTO Specification). However the Specification does not take into account the prismatic geometry of VMS and the complex interaction of the applied aerodynamic forces to the support structure. In view of the lack of code guidance and the limited number research performed so far, targeted experimentation and large scale testing was conducted at the Florida International University (FIU) Wall of Wind (WOW) to provide reliable drag coefficients and investigate the aerodynamic instability of VMS. A comprehensive range of VMS geometries was tested in turbulence representative of the high frequency end of the spectrum in a simulated suburban atmospheric boundary layer. The mean normal, lateral and vertical lift force coefficients, in addition to the twisting moment coefficient and eccentricity ratio, were determined using the measured data for each model. Wind tunnel testing confirmed that drag on a prismatic VMS is smaller than the 1.7 suggested value in the current AASHTO Specification (2013). An alternative to the AASHTO Specification code value is presented in the form of a design matrix. Testing and analysis also indicated that vortex shedding oscillations and galloping instability could be significant for VMS signs with a large depth ratio attached to a structure with a low natural frequency. The effect of corner modification was investigated by testing models with chamfered and rounded corners. Results demonstrated an additional decrease in the drag coefficient but a possible Reynolds number dependency for the rounded corner configuration.

Table 4. Trace gas concentrations from samples taken at Ginninderra

We assess the performance of an inverse Lagrangian dispersion technique for its suitability to quantify leakages from geological storage of CO2. We find the technique is accurate ((QbLS/Q)=0.99, sigma=0.29) when strict meteorological filtering is applied to ensure that Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory is valid for the periods analysed and when downwind enrichments in tracer gas concentration are 1% or more above background concentration. Because of their respective baseline atmospheric concentrations, this enrichment criterion is less onerous for CH4 than for CO2. Therefore for geologically sequestered gas reservoirs with a significant CH4 component, monitoring CH4 as a surrogate for CO2 leakage could be as much as 10 times more sensitive than monitoring CO2 alone. Additional recommendations for designing a robust atmospheric monitoring strategy for geosequestration include: continuous concentration data; exact inter-calibration of up- and downwind concentration measurements; use of an array of point concentration sensors to maximise the use of spatial information about the leakage plume; and precise isotope ratio measurement to confirm the source of any concentration elevations detected.

(Table 1) Low molecular weight hydrocarbon concentrations and organic carbon contents at DSDP Hole 71-511

C2-C8 hydrocarbons (36 compounds identified) from 56 shipboard sealed, deep-frozen core samples of DSDP Leg 71, Site 511, Falkland Plateau, South Atlantic, were analyzed by a combined hydrogen stripping-thermovaporization method. Concentrations, which represent hydrocarbons dissolved in the pore water and adsorbed to the mineral surfaces of the sediment, vary from 24 ng/g of dry weight sediment in Lithologic Unit 4 to 17,400 ng/g in Lithologic Unit 6 ("black shale" unit). Likewise, the organic carbon normalized C2-C8 hydrocarbon concentrations range from 104 to 3.5 x 105 ng/g Corg. The latter value is more than one order of magnitude lower than expected for petroleum source beds in the main phase of oil generation. The low maturity at 600 meters depth is further supported by light hydrocarbon concentration ratios. The change of the kerogen type from Lithologic Unit 5 (Type III) to 6 (Type II) is evidenced by changes in the C6 and C7 hydrocarbon composition. Redistribution phenomena are observed close to the Tertiary-Cretaceous unconformity and at the contact between the "black shale" unit and the overlying Cretaceous chalks and claystones. Otherwise, the low molecular weight hydrocarbons in Hole 511 are formed in situ and remain at their place of formation. The core samples turned out to be contaminated by large quantities of acetone, which is routinely used as a solvent during sampling procedures onboard Glomar Challenger.

Geochemistry of ODP Leg 135 igneous rock samples

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 135 provided igneous rock cores from six sites drilled on a transect across the Lau Basin between the Lau Ridge remnant arc and the modem spreading ridges of the Central and Eastern Lau Spreading Centers. The drill cores sampled crust from the earliest stage of backarc extension (latest Miocene time, about 6 Ma), and younger crust (late Pliocene, about 3.8-2 Ma, and middle Pleistocene, about 0.64-0.8 Ma). Nearly all of the igneous samples are from tholeiitic basalt flows; many of them are interbedded with arc-composition volcaniclastic sediments. Rock compositions range from olivine-plagioclase-clinopyroxene basalt, with up to 8% MgO, to oceanic andesites with less than 3.2% MgO and silica contents as high as 56%. The oldest rocks recovered are close in composition to rocks formed at the modern Central and Eastern Lau Spreading Centers and have MORB-like characteristics. Generation of the oldest units was coeval with arc-tholeiitic volcanism on the Lau Ridge less than 100 km to the west. The arc and backarc melts came from different mantle sources. At three sites near the center of the basin, the crust is arc-tholeiitic basalt, two-pyroxene basaltic-andesite, and two-pyroxene andesite. These rocks have many similarities to modem Tofua Arc lavas yet they were drilled within 70 km of the MORB-like Eastern Lau Spreading Center. Estimates of the minimum age for these arc-like rocks indicate that they are late Pliocene (about 2 Ma). These ages overlap the age of the nearby Eastern Lau Spreading Center. The heterogeneous crust of the Lau Basin carries many of the signatures of supra-subduction zone (SSZ) melts but also has a distinct MORB-like component. Mixing between SSZ and MORB mantle sources may explain the variations and the spatial distribution of magma types.

An R-package for the Estimation and Testing of Multiple Covariates and Biomarker Interactions for Survival Data Based on Local Partial Likelihood

When we study the variables that a ffect survival time, we usually estimate their eff ects by the Cox regression model. In biomedical research, e ffects of the covariates are often modi ed by a biomarker variable. This leads to covariates-biomarker interactions. Here biomarker is an objective measurement of the patient characteristics at baseline. Liu et al. (2015) has built up a local partial likelihood bootstrap model to estimate and test this interaction e ffect of covariates and biomarker, but the R code developed by Liu et al. (2015) can only handle one variable and one interaction term and can not t the model with adjustment to nuisance variables. In this project, we expand the model to allow adjustment to nuisance variables, expand the R code to take any chosen interaction terms, and we set up many parameters for users to customize their research. We also build up an R package called "lplb" to integrate the complex computations into a simple interface. We conduct numerical simulation to show that the new method has excellent fi nite sample properties under both the null and alternative hypothesis. We also applied the method to analyze data from a prostate cancer clinical trial with acid phosphatase (AP) biomarker.

Supporting Run-time Monitoring of UML-RT through Customizable Monitoring Configurations in PapyrusRT

Model Driven Engineering uses the principle that code can automatically be generated from software models which would potentially save time and cost of development. By this methodology, a systems structure and behaviour can be expressed in more abstract, high level terms without some of the accidental complexity that the use of a general purpose language can bring. Models are the actual implementation of the system unlike in traditional software development where models are often used for documentation purposes only. However once the code is generated from the model, testing and debugging activities tend to happen on the code level and the model is not updated. We believe that monitoring on the model level could potentially facilitate quality assurance activities as the errors are detected in the early phase of development. In this thesis, we create a Monitoring Configuration for an open source model driven engineering tool called PapyrusRT in Eclipse. We support the run-time monitoring of UML-RT elements with a tracing tool called LTTng. We annotate the model with monitoring information to be used by the code generator for adding tracepoint statements for the corresponding elements. We provide the option of a timing specification to discover latency errors on the model. We validate the results by creating and tracing real time models in PapyrusRT.

Upper-Pleistocene terrace deposits in Mediterranean climate: geomorphological and source-rock control on mineral and geochemical signatures (Betic Cordillera, SE Spain)

Mineral and chemical composition of alluvial Upper-Pleistocene deposits from the Alto Guadalquivir Basin (SE Spain) were studied as a tool to identify sedimentary and geomorphological processes controlling its formation. Sediments located upstream, in the north-eastern sector of the basin, are rich in dolomite, illite, MgO and KB2BO. Downstream, sediments at the sequence base are enriched in calcite, smectite and CaO, whereas the upper sediments have similar features to those from upstream. Elevated rare-earth elements (REE) values can be related to low carbonate content in the sediments and the increase of silicate material produced and concentrated during soil formation processes in the neighbouring source areas. Two mineralogical and geochemical signatures related to different sediment source areas were identified. Basal levels were deposited during a predominantly erosive initial stage, and are mainly composed of calcite and smectite materials enriched in REE coming from Neogene marls and limestones. Then the deposition of the upper levels of the alluvial sequences, made of dolomite and illitic materials depleted in REE coming from the surrounding Sierra de Cazorla area took place during a less erosive later stage of the fluvial system. Such modification was responsible of the change in the mineralogical and geochemical composition of the alluvial sediments.

Source Provenance of Pre-Historic Granitic Grindstones: The Case Study of the Cogotas I Archaeological Site of Arroyo Mucientes/San Lázaro (Castronuño, Valladolid) and a Proposal on the General Methodological Flow Process

The occurrence of hand grindstones at the Cogotas I archaeological sites is considered to be a common feature. Given that a distant-provenance raw material is frequently involved, determination of its source is a basic factor in the search for a better understanding of resource management and for any Political Economy approach. To progress in these directions an overall study should be planned, using selected grindstones with a view to covering diverse sub-zones of the Cogotas I dispersal area, especially because of its considerable distance from the granite basement source. Such a study may today includes diverse analytical procedures combining successive geographic, petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical criteria. To check the plausibility of the proposed methodology, a preliminary test has been carried out on two granite grindstones, obtained at the archaeological excavation at the Castronuño (Valladolid) Cogotian site, which is fifty km away from an inferred source area that was presumably located at Peñausende (Zamora). The result obtained validates the proposed operational process, yielding a generalizable knowledge to other similar situations.