Analysis of past and future dam formation and failure in the Santa Cruz River (San Juan province, Argentina)

Around 11.5 * 106 m3 of rock detached from the eastern slope of the Santa Cruz valley (San Juan province, Argentina) in the first fortnight of January 2005. The rockslide?debris avalanche blocked the course, resulting in the development of a lake with maximum length of around 3.5 km. The increase in the inflow rate from 47,000?74,000 m3/d between April and October to 304,000 m3/d between late October and the first fortnight of November, accelerated the growing rate of the lake. On 12 November 2005 the dam failed, releasing 24.6 * 106 m3 of water. The resulting outburst flood caused damages mainly on infrastructure, and affected the facilities of a hydropower dam which was under construction 250 km downstream from the source area. In this work we describe causes and consequences of the natural dam formation and failure, and we dynamically model the 2005 rockslide?debris avalanche with DAN3D. Additionally, as a volume ~ 24 * 106 m3of rocks still remain unstable in the slope, we use the results of the back analysis to forecast the formation of a future natural dam. We analyzed two potential scenarios: a partial slope failure of 6.5 * 106 m3 and a worst case where all the unstable volume remaining in the slope fails. The spreading of those potential events shows that a new blockage of the Santa Cruz River is likely to occur. According to their modeled morphometry and the contributing watershed upstream the blockage area, as the one of 2005, the dams would also be unstable. This study shows the importance of back and forward analysis that can be carried out to obtain critical information for land use planning, hazards mitigation, and emergency management.

Ejaculation failure on the day of oocyte retrieval for IVF: case report.

Unexpected ejaculation failure on the day of oocyte retrieval for IVF occurs once or twice a year in our Reproductive Medicine Unit, where approximately 500 oocyte retrievals are performed each year. Two clinical situations which occurred in 2001 are presented. In the first case, sperm were finally obtained by epididymal aspiration and resulted in the fertilization of five oocytes by ICSI. The transfer of two fresh embryos did not result in a pregnancy and the three supernumerary zygotes were cryopreserved. The male patient presented an anxio-depressive episode necessitating psychiatric hospitalization 1 week after the oocyte retrieval. In the second case, no sperm were obtained and the four oocytes were therefore lost. The couple went through a crisis in their relationship and tried another cycle of IVF 10 months later, after the preventive cryopreservation of a sperm sample. On the day of oocyte retrieval the patient was unable to produce a fresh sample but three zygotes were obtained through ICSI using the back-up cryopreserved sperm. Two embryos were transferred but no pregnancy ensued. The clinical decision-making processes for these two cases are described, as well as the measures employed to help prevent these unfortunate situations.

Multi-phase postmortem CT angiography: recognizing technique-related artefacts and pitfalls.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Multi-phase postmortem CT angiography (MPMCTA) is increasingly being recognized as a valuable adjunct medicolegal tool to explore the vascular system. Adequate interpretation, however, requires knowledge about the most common technique-related artefacts. The purpose of this study was to identify and index the possible artefacts related to MPMCTA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An experienced radiologist blinded to all clinical and forensic data retrospectively reviewed 49 MPMCTAs. Each angiographic phase, i.e. arterial, venous and dynamic, was analysed separately to identify phase-specific artefacts based on location and aspect. RESULTS: Incomplete contrast filling of the cerebral venous system was the most commonly encountered artefact, followed by contrast agent layering in the lumen of the thoracic aorta. Enhancement or so-called oedematization of the digestive system mucosa was also frequently observed. CONCLUSION: All MPMCTA artefacts observed and described here are reproducible and easily identifiable. Knowledge about these artefacts is important to avoid misinterpreting them as pathological findings.

Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement

Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

Abnormal Lung Function and Risk for Heart Failure in the Elderly: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with increased risk for heart failure (HF). The impact of subclinical abnormal spirometric findings on HF risk among older adults without history of COPD is not well elucidated. Methods: We evaluated 2125 participants (age 73.6±2.9 years; 50.5% men; 62.3% white; 45.6/9.4% past/current smokers; body mass index [BMI] 27.2±4.6 kg/m2) without prevalent COPD or HF who underwent baseline spirometry in the Health ABC Study. Abnormal lung function was defined either as forced vital capacity (FVC) below lower limit of normal (LLN) or forced expiratory volume in 1st sec (FEV1) to FVC ratio below LLN. Results: On follow-up (median, 9.4 years), 68 of 350 (19.4%) participants with abnormal lung function developed HF, as compared to 172 of 1775 (9.7%) participants with normal lung function (hazard ratio [HR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74 -3.06; P<.001). This increased risk persisted after adjusting for all other independent predictors of HF in the Health ABC Study, BMI, incident coronary events, and several inflammatory markers (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.30 -2.54; P<.001), and remained constant over time. Baseline FVC and FEV1 had a linear association with HF risk (Figure). In adjusted models, HF risk increased by 21% (95% CI, 10 -36%) per 10% decrease in FVC and 18% (95% CI, 10 -28%) per 10% decrease in FEV1 (both P<.001); this association persisted among participants with normal lung function at baseline. Findings were consistent across sex, race, and smoking status. Conclusions: Subclinical abnormal spirometric findings are prevalent among older adults and are independently associated with risk for incident HF.

Failure to collude in the presence of asymmetric information

In this paper, we design the optimal contract when two agents can collude under asymmetric information. They have correlated types, produce complementary inputs and are protected by limited liability. Therefore, a joint manipulation of reports allows them to internalize informational and productive externalities. We show that by taking advantage of the transaction costs created by asymmetric information, even though they collude, the principal can achieve the outcome without collusion regardless of the sign and the degree of correlation. In particular, the principal can implement a non-monotonic quantity schedule in a collusion-proof way while this is impossible if collusion occurs under complete information.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI): state of the art techniques and future perspectives.

Transcatheter aortic valve therapies are the newest established techniques for the treatment of high risk patients affected by severe symptomatic aortic valve stenosis. The transapical approach requires a left anterolateral mini-thoracotomy, whereas the transfemoral method requires an adequate peripheral vascular access and can be performed fully percutaneously. Alternatively, the trans-subclavian access has been recently proposed as a third promising approach. Depending on the technique, the fine stent-valve positioning can be performed with or without contrast injections. The transapical echo-guided stent-valve implantation without angiography (the Lausanne technique) relies entirely on transoesophageal echocardiogramme imaging for the fine stent-valve positioning and it has been proved that this technique prevents the onset of postoperative contrast-related acute kidney failure. Recent published reports have shown good hospital outcomes and short-term results after transcatheter aortic valve implantation, but there are no proven advantages in using the transfemoral or the transapical technique. In particular, the transapical series have a higher mean logistic Euroscore of 27-35%, a procedural success rate above 95% and a mean 30-day mortality between 7.5 and 17.5%, whereas the transfemoral results show a lower logistic Euroscore of 23-25.5%, a procedural success rate above 90% and a 30-day mortality of 7-10.8%. Nevertheless, further clinical trials and long-term results are mandatory to confirm this positive trend. Future perspectives in transcatheter aortic valve therapies would be the development of intravascular devices for the ablation of the diseased valve leaflets and the launch of new stent-valves with improved haemodynamic, different sizes and smaller delivery systems.

Temporal Geobiotic Mapping: a conceptual mapping technique toward visualising geobiotic areas in cross-section

Geobiota are defined by taxic assemblages (i.e., biota) and their defining abiotic breaks, which are mapped in cross-section to reveal past and future biotic boundaries. We term this conceptual approach Temporal Geobiotic Mapping (TGM) and offer it as a conceptual approach for biogeography. TGM is based on geological cross-sectioning, which creates maps based on the distribution of biota and known abiotic factors that drive their distribution, such as climate, topography, soil chemistry and underlying geology. However, the availability of abiotic data is limited for many areas. Unlike other approaches, TGM can be used when there is minimal data available. In order to demonstrate TGM, we use the well-known area in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales (NSW), south-eastern Australia and show how surface processes such as weathering and erosion affect the future distribution of a Moist Basalt Forest taxic assemblage. Biotic areas are best represented visually as maps, which can show transgressions and regressions of biota and abiota over time. Using such maps, a biogeographer can directly compare animal and plant distributions with features in the abiotic environment and may identify significant geographical barriers or pathways that explain biotic distributions.

Laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair with extraperitoneal double-mesh technique.

Totally extraperitoneal laparoscopic hernia repair is an efficient but technically demanding procedure. As mechanisms of hernia recurrence may be related to these technical difficulties, we have modified a previously described double-mesh technique in an effort to simplify the procedure. Extraperitoneal laparoscopic hernia repairs were performed in 82 male and 17 female patients having inguinal, femoral, and recurrent bilateral hernias. A standard propylene mesh measuring 15 x 15 cm was cut into two pieces of 4 x 15 cm and 11 x 15 cm. The smaller mesh was placed over both inguinal rings without splitting. The larger mesh was then inserted over the first mesh and stapled to low-risk zones, reinforcing the large-vessel area and the nerve transition zone. The mean procedure duration was 60 minutes for unilateral and 100 minutes for bilateral hernia repair. Patients were discharged from the hospital within 48 hours. The mean postoperative follow-up was 22 months, with no recurrences, neuralgia, or bleeding complications. Over a 2-year period, this technique was found to be satisfactory without recurrences or significant complications. In our hands, this technique was easier to perform: it allows for a less than perfect positioning of the meshes and avoids most of the stapling to crucial zones.