Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Multimodal Highlighting of Structural Abnormalities in Diabetic Rat and Human Corneas.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to highlight structural corneal changes in a model of type 2 diabetes, using in vivo corneal confocal microscopy (CCM). The abnormalities were also characterized by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy in rat and human corneas. METHODS: Goto-Kakizaki (GK) rats were observed at age 12 weeks (n = 3) and 1 year (n = 6), and compared to age-matched controls. After in vivo CCM examination, TEM and SHG microscopy were used to characterize the ultrastructure and the three-dimensional organization of the abnormalities. Human corneas from diabetic (n = 3) and nondiabetic (n = 3) patients were also included in the study. RESULTS: In the basal epithelium of GK rats, CCM revealed focal hyper-reflective areas, and histology showed proliferative cells with irregular basement membrane. In the anterior stroma, extracellular matrix modifications were detected by CCM and confirmed in histology. In the Descemet's membrane periphery of all the diabetic corneas, hyper-reflective deposits were highlighted using CCM and characterized as long-spacing collagen fibrils by TEM. SHG microscopy revealed these deposits with high contrast, allowing specific detection in diabetic human and rat corneas without preparation and characterization of their three-dimensional organization. CONCLUSION: Pathologic findings were observed early in the development of diabetes in GK rats. Similar abnormalities have been found in corneas from diabetic patients. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: This multidisciplinary study highlights diabetes-induced corneal abnormalities in an animal model, but also in diabetic donors. This could constitute a potential early marker for diagnosis of hyperglycemia-induced tissue changes.

Neurotoxicant-induced inflammatory response in three-dimensional brain cell cultures.

Brain inflammatory response is triggered by the activation of microglial cells and astrocytes in response to various types of CNS injury, including neurotoxic insults. Its outcome is determined by cellular interactions, inflammatory mediators, as well as trophic and/or cytotoxic signals, and depends on many additional factors such as the intensity and duration of the insult, the extent of both the primary neuronal damage and glial reactivity and the developmental stage of the brain. Depending on particular circumstances, the brain inflammatory response can promote neuroprotection, regeneration or neurodegeneration. Glial reactivity, regarded as the central phenomenon of brain inflammation, has also been used as an early marker of neurotoxicity. To study the mechanisms underlying the glial reactivity, serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures were used as an in vitro model to test the effects of conventional neurotoxicants such as organophosphate pesticides, heavy metals, excitotoxins and mycotoxins. This approach was found to be relevant and justified by the complex cell-cell interactions involved in the brain inflammatory response, the variability of the glial reactions and the multitude of mediators involved. All these variables need to be considered for the elucidation of the specific cellular and molecular reactions and their consequences caused by a given chemical insult.

Identification and characterization of the members of the pho1 gene family in moss and rice

Inorganic phosphate (Pi) is one of the main nutrients limiting plant growth anddevelopment in many agro-ecosystems. In plants, phosphate is acquired from the soil by theroots, and is then transferred to the shoot via the xylem. In the model plant Arabidopsisthaliana, PHO1 was previously identified as being involved in loading Pi into the xylem ofroots. AtPHO1, belongs to a multigenic family composed of 10 additional members, namelyAtPHO1;H1 to AtPHO1;10. In this study, we aimed at further investigating the role of thePHO1 gene family in Pi homeostasis in plants, and to this end we isolated and characterizedthe PHO1 members of two main model plants, the moss Physcomitrella patens and the riceOryza sativa.In the bryophyte P. patens, bioinformatic analyses revealed the presence of seven AtPHO1homologues, highly similar to AtPHO1. The seven moss PHO1 genes, namely PpPHO1;1 toPpPHO1;7 appeared to be differentially regulated, both at the tissue level and in response toPi status. However only PpPHO1;1 and PpPHO1;7 were specifically up-regulated upon Pistarvation, suggesting a potential role in Pi homeostasis. We also characterized the responseof P. patens to Pi starvation, showing that higher and lower plants share some commonstrategies to adapt to Pi-deficiency.In the second part, focusing on the monocotyledon rice, we showed the existence of threePHO1 homologues OsPHO1;1 to OsPHO1;3, with the unique particularity of each havingNatural Antisense Transcripts (NATs). Molecular analyses revealed that both the sense andthe antisense OsPHO1;2 transcripts were by far the most abundantly expressed transcripts ofthe family, preferentially expressed in the roots. The stable expression of OsPHO1;2 in allconditions tested, in opposition with the highly induced antisense transcript upon Pistarvation, suggest a putative role for the antisense in regulating the sense transcript.Moreover, mutant analyses revealed that OsPHO1;2 plays a key role in Pi homeostasis, intransferring Pi from the root to the shoot. Finally, complementing the pho1 mutant inArabidopsis, characterized by low Pi in the shoot and reduced growth, with the riceOsPHO1;2 gene revealed a new role for PHO1 in Pi signaling. Indeed, the complementedplants showed normal growth, with however low Pi content.

Maturation-dependent effects of chlorpyrifos and parathion and their oxygen analogs on acetylcholinesterase and neuronal and glial markers in aggregating brain cell cultures.

An in vitro model, the aggregating brain cell culture of fetal rat telencephalon, has been used to study the maturation-dependent sensitivity of brain cells to two organophosphorus pesticides (OPs), chlorpyrifos and parathion, and to their oxon derivatives. Immature (DIV 5-15) or differentiated (DIV 25-35) brain cells were treated continuously for 10 days. Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitory potency for the OPs was compared to that of eserine (physostigmine), a reversible AChE inhibitor. Oxon derivatives were more potent AChE inhibitors than the parent compounds, and parathion was more potent than chlorpyrifos. No maturation-dependent differences for AChE inhibition were found for chlorpyrifos and eserine, whereas for parathion and paraoxon there was a tendency to be more effective in immature cultures, while the opposite was true for chlorpyrifos-oxon. Toxic effects, assessed by measuring protein content as an index of general cytotoxicity, and various enzyme activities as cell-type-specific neuronal and glial markers (ChAT and GAD, for cholinergic and GABAergic neurons, respectively, and GS and CNP, for astrocytes and oligodendrocytes, respectively) were only found at more than 70% of AChE inhibition. Immature compared to differentiated cholinergic neurons appeared to be more sensitive to OP treatments. The oxon derivates were found to be more toxic on neurons than the parent compounds, and chlorpyrifos was more toxic than parathion. Eserine was not neurotoxic. These results indicate that inhibition of AChE remains the most sensitive macromolecular target of OP exposure, since toxic effects were found at concentrations in which AChE was inhibited. Furthermore, the compound-specific reactions, the differential pattern of toxicity of OPs compared to eserine, and the higher sensitivity of immature brain cells suggest that the toxic effects and inhibition of AChE are unrelated.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

ERK1/2 pathway is activated in degenerated Rpe65-deficient mice.

The MAPK family is composed of three majors kinases, JNK, p38 and ERK1/2, and is implicated in many degenerative processes, including retinal cell death. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the activation of ERK1/2 kinase, and its potential role in Müller cell gliosis, during photoreceptor cell death in Rpe65(-/-) mice. We assayed ERK1/2 mRNA and protein levels, and evaluated ERK1/2 phosphorylation involved in kinase activation, in 2, 4 and 6 month-old Rpe65(-/-) mice and in age-matched wild-type controls. No differences in ERK1/2 expression were detected between Rpe65(-/-) and wild-type mice, however, ERK1/2 phosphorylation was dramatically increased in the knock out mice at 4 and 6 months-of-age. Phosphorylated ERK1/2 co-localized with GFAP in the ganglion cell layer, and correlated with an increase in GFAP protein expression and retinal cell death. Accumulation of cFOS protein in the ganglion cell layer occurred concomitant with pERK1/2 activation. Müller cell proliferation was not observed. ERK1/2 activation did not occur in 2 month-old Rpe65(-/-) or in the Rpe65(-/-)/Gnat1(-/-) mice, in which no degeneration was evident. The observed activation ERK1/2 and GFAP, both markers of Müller cell gliosis, in the absence of Müller cell proliferation, is consistent with the activation of atypical gliosis occurring during the slow process of degeneration in Rpe65(-/-) mice. As Müller cell gliosis is activated in many neuronal and retinal degenerative diseases, further studies will be needed to determine whether atypical gliosis in Rpe65(-/-) mice contributes to, or protects against, the pathogenesis occurring in this model of Leber congenital amaurosis.

A model of shadow banking

We present a model of shadow banking in which financial intermediaries originate and trade loans, assemble these loans into diversified portfolios, and then finance these portfolios externally with riskless debt. In this model: i) outside investor wealth drives the demand for riskless debt and indirectly for securitization, ii) intermediary assets and leverage move together as in Adrian and Shin (2010), and iii) intermediaries increase their exposure to systematic risk as they reduce their idiosyncratic risk through diversification, as in Acharya, Schnabl, and Suarez (2010). Under rational expectations, the shadow banking system is stable and improves welfare. When investors and intermediaries neglect tail risks, however, the expansion of risky lending and the concentration of risks in the intermediaries create financial fragility and fluctuations in liquidity over time.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Role of Methyl Salicylate on Oviposition Deterrence in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Plants attacked by herbivores have evolved different strategies that fend off their enemies. Insect eggs deposited on leaves have been shown to inhibit further oviposition through visual or chemical cues. In some plant species, the volatile methyl salicylate (MeSA) repels gravid insects but whether it plays the same role in the model species Arabidopsis thaliana is currently unknown. Here we showed that Pieris brassicae butterflies laid fewer eggs on Arabidopsis plants that were next to a MeSA dispenser or on plants with constitutively high MeSA emission than on control plants. Surprisingly, the MeSA biosynthesis mutant bsmt1-1 treated with egg extract was still repellent to butterflies when compared to untreated bsmt1-1. Moreover, the expression of BSMT1 was not enhanced by egg extract treatment but was induced by herbivory. Altogether, these results provide evidence that the deterring activity of eggs on gravid butterflies is independent of MeSA emission in Arabidopsis, and that MeSA might rather serve as a deterrent in plants challenged by feeding larvae.

Involvement of glial cells in the neurotoxicity of parathion and chlorpyrifos.

An in vitro model, the aggregating brain cell culture of fetal rat telencephalon, has been used to investigate the influence of glial cells on the neurotoxicity of two organophosphorus pesticides (OPs), chlorpyrifos and parathion. Mixed-cell aggregate cultures were treated continuously for 10 days between DIV 5 and 15. Parathion induced astrogliosis at concentration at which MAP-2 immunostaining, found here to be more sensitive than neuron-specific enzyme activities, was not affected. In contrast, chlorpyrifos induced a comparatively weak gliotic reaction, and only at concentrations at which neurons were already affected. After similar treatments, increased neurotoxicity of parathion and chlorpyrifos was found in aggregate cultures deprived of glial cells. These results suggest that glial cells provide neuroprotection against OPs toxicity. To address the question of the difference in toxicity between parathion and chlorpyrifos, the toxic effects of their leaving groups, p-nitrophenol and trichloropyridinol, were studied in mixed-cell aggregates. General cytotoxicity was more pronounced for trichloropyridinol and both compounds had similar toxic effects on neuron-specific enzyme activities. In contrast, trichloropyridinol induced a much stronger decrease in glutamine synthetase activity, the enzymatic marker of astrocytes. Trichloropyridinol may exert a toxic effect on astrocytes, compromising their neuroprotective function, thus exacerbating the neurotoxicity of chlorpyrifos. This is in line with the suggestion that glial cells may contribute to OPs neurotoxicity, and with the view that OPs may exert their neurotoxic effects through different mechanisms.

Insuring California earthquakes and the role for catastrophe bonds

The 1994 Northridge earthquake sent ripples to insurance conpanieseverywhere. This was one in a series of natural disasters such asHurricane Andrew which together with the problems in Lloyd's of Londonhave insurance companies running for cover. This paper presents a calibration of the U.S. economy in a model with financial markets forinsurance derivatives that suggests the U.S. economy can deal with thedamage of natural catastrophe far better than one might think.

Location of hubs in a competitive environment

We offer a formulation that locates hubs on a network in a competitiveenvironment; that is, customer capture is sought, which happenswhenever the location of a new hub results in a reduction of thecurrent cost (time, distance) needed by the traffic that goes from thespecified origin to the specified destination.The formulation presented here reduces the number of variables andconstraints as compared to existing covering models. This model issuited for both air passenger and cargo transportation.In this model, each origin-destination flow can go through either oneor two hubs, and each demand point can be assigned to more than a hub,depending on the different destinations of its traffic. Links(``spokes'' have no capacity limit. Computational experience is provided.

Association of different lipid measures for atherogenic lipid fractions and risk of coronary events in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.