Univariate Parametric Survival Analysis using GS-distributions

The GS-distribution is a family of distributions that provide an accurate representation of any unimodal univariate continuous distribution. In this contribution we explore the utility of this family as a general model in survival analysis. We show that the survival function based on the GS-distribution is able to provide a model for univariate survival data and that appropriate estimates can be obtained. We develop some hypotheses tests that can be used for checking the underlying survival model and for comparing the survival of different groups.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome: a population-based study on prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, clinical features, and survival in Europe.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive lethal ciliopathy characterized by the triad of cystic renal dysplasia, occipital encephalocele and postaxial polydactyly. We present the largest population-based epidemiological study to date using data provided by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network. The study population consisted of 191 cases of MKS identified between January 1990 and December 2011 in 34 European registries. The mean prevalence was 2.6 per 100 000 births in a subset of registries with good ascertainment. The prevalence was stable over time, but regional differences were observed. There were 145 (75.9%) terminations of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis, 13 (6.8%) fetal deaths, 33 (17.3%) live births. In addition to cystic kidneys (97.7%), encephalocele (83.8%) and polydactyly (87.3%), frequent features include other central nervous system anomalies (51.4%), fibrotic/cystic changes of the liver (65.5% of cases with post mortem examination) and orofacial clefts (31.8%). Various other anomalies were present in 64 (37%) patients. As nowadays most patients are detected very early in pregnancy when liver or kidney changes may not yet be developed or may be difficult to assess, none of the anomalies should be considered obligatory for the diagnosis. Most cases (90.2%) are diagnosed prenatally at 14.3±2.6 (range 11-36) gestational weeks and pregnancies are mainly terminated, reducing the number of LB to one-fifth of the total prevalence rate. Early diagnosis is important for timely counseling of affected couples regarding the option of pregnancy termination and prenatal genetic testing in future pregnancies.

GD3 Synthase Overexpression Sensitizes Hepatocarcinoma Cells to Hypoxia and Reduces Tumor Growth by Suppressing the cSrc/NF-κB Survival Pathway

Abstract Background: Hypoxia-mediated HIF-1a stabilization and NF-kB activation play a key role in carcinogenesis by fostering cancer cell survival, angiogenesis and tumor invasion. Gangliosides are integral components of biological membranes with an increasingly recognized role as signaling intermediates. In particular, ganglioside GD3 has been characterized as a proapoptotic lipid effector by promoting cell death signaling and suppression of survival pathways. Thus, our aim was to analyze the role of GD3 in hypoxia susceptibility of hepatocarcinoma cells and in vivo tumor growth. Methodology/Principal Findings: We generated and characterized a human hepatocarcinoma cell line stably expressing GD3 synthase (Hep3B-GD3), which catalyzes the synthesis of GD3 from GM3. Despite increased GD3 levels (2-3 fold), no significant changes in cell morphology or growth were observed in Hep3B-GD3 cells compared to wild type Hep3B cells under normoxia. However, exposure of Hep3B-GD3 cells to hypoxia (2% O2) enhanced reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, resulting in decreased cell survival, with similar findings observed in Hep3B cells exposed to increasing doses of exogenous GD3. In addition, hypoxia-induced c-Src phosphorylation at tyrosine residues, NF-kB activation and subsequent expression of Mn-SOD were observed in Hep3B cells but not in Hep3B-GD3 cells. Moreover, MnTBAP, an antioxidant with predominant SOD mimetic activity, reduced ROS generation, protecting Hep3B-GD3 cells from hypoxia-induced death. Finally, lower tumor growth, higher cell death and reduced Mn-SOD expression were observed in Hep3B-GD3 compared to Hep3B tumor xenografts. Conclusion: These findings underscore a role for GD3 in hypoxia susceptibility by disabling the c-Src/NF-kB survival pathway resulting in lower Mn-SOD expression, which may be of relevance in hepatocellular carcinoma therapy.

Positive Outcomes Influence the Rate and Time to Publication, but Not the Impact Factor of Publications of Clinical Trial Results

Objectives: Publication bias may affect the validity of evidence based medical decisions. The aim of this study is to assess whether research outcomes affect the dissemination of clinical trial findings, in terms of rate, time to publication, and impact factor of journal publications. Methods and Findings: All drug-evaluating clinical trials submitted to and approved by a general hospital ethics committee between 1997 and 2004 were prospectively followed to analyze their fate and publication. Published articles were identified by searching Pubmed and other electronic databases. Clinical study final reports submitted to the ethics committee, final reports synopses available online and meeting abstracts were also considered as sources of study results. Study outcomes were classified as positive (when statistical significance favoring experimental drug was achieved), negative (when no statistical significance was achieved or it favored control drug) and descriptive (for non-controlled studies). Time to publication was defined as time from study closure to publication. A survival analysis was performed using a Cox regression model to analyze time to publication. Journal impact factors of identified publications were recorded. Publication rate was 48·4% (380/785). Study results were identified for 68·9% of all completed clinical trials (541/785). Publication rate was 84·9% (180/212) for studies with results classified as positive and 68·9% (128/186) for studies with results classified as negative (p<0·001). Median time to publication was 2·09 years (IC95 1·61-2·56) for studies with results classified as positive and 3·21 years (IC95 2·69-3·70) for studies with results classified as negative (hazard ratio 1·99 (IC95 1·55-2·55). No differences were found in publication impact factor between positive (median 6·308, interquartile range: 3·141-28·409) and negative result studies (median 8·266, interquartile range: 4·135-17·157). Conclusions: Clinical trials with positive outcomes have significantly higher rates and shorter times to publication than those with negative results. However, no differences have been found in terms of impact factor.

The Classification of Vitreous Seeds in Retinoblastoma and Response to Intravitreal Melphalan.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical characteristics of the 3 classifications of vitreous seeds in retinoblastoma-dust (class 1), spheres (class 2), and clouds (class 3)-and their responses to intravitreal melphalan. DESIGN: Retrospective, bi-institutional cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 87 patient eyes received 475 intravitreal injections of melphalan (median dose, 30 μg) given weekly, a median of 5 times (range, 1-12 times). METHODS: At presentation, the vitreous seeds were classified into 3 groups: dust, spheres, and clouds. Indirect ophthalmoscopy, fundus photography, ultrasonography, and ultrasonic biomicroscopy were used to evaluate clinical response to weekly intravitreal melphalan injections and time to regression of vitreous seeds. Kaplan-Meier estimates of time to regression and ocular survival, patient survival, and event-free survival (EFS) were calculated and then compared using the Mantel-Cox test of curve. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to regression of vitreous seeds, patient survival, ocular survival, and EFS. RESULTS: The difference in time to regression was significantly different for the 3 seed classes (P < 0.0001): the median time to regression was 0.6, 1.7, and 7.7 months for dust, spheres, and clouds, respectively. Eyes with dust received significantly fewer injections and a lower median and cumulative dose of melphalan, whereas eyes with clouds received significantly more injections and a higher median and cumulative dose of melphalan. Overall, the 2-year Kaplan-Meier estimates for ocular survival, patient survival, and EFS (related to target seeds) were 90.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79.7-95.6), 100%, and 98.5% (95% CI, 90-99.7), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The regression and response of vitreous seeds to intravitreal melphalan are different for each seed classification. The vitreous seed classification can be predictive of time to regression, number, median dose, and cumulative dose of intravitreal melphalan injections required.

Mortality risk associated with underweight : a census-linked cohort of 31,578 individuals with up to 32 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND: In contrast to obesity, information on the health risks of underweight is sparse. We examined the long-term association between underweight and mortality by considering factors possibly influencing this relationship. METHODS: We included 31,578 individuals aged 25-74 years, who participated in population based health studies between 1977 and 1993 and were followed-up for survival until 2008 by record linkage with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated from measured (53% of study population) or self-reported height and weight. Underweight was defined as BMI < 18.5 kg/m2. Cox regression models were used to determine mortality Hazard Ratios (HR) of underweight vs. normal weight (BMI 18.5- < 25.0 kg/m2). Covariates were study, sex, smoking, healthy eating proxy, sports frequency, and educational level. RESULTS: Underweight individuals represented 3.0% of the total study population (n = 945), and were mostly women (89.9%). Compared to normal weight, underweight was associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.14-1.65). Increased risk was apparent in both sexes, regardless of smoking status, and mainly driven by excess death from external causes (HR: 3.18; 1.96-5.17), but not cancer, cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. The HR were 1.16 (0.88-1.53) in studies with measured BMI and 1.59 (1.24-2.05) with self-reported BMI. CONCLUSIONS: The increased risk of dying of underweight people was mainly due to an increased mortality risk from external causes. Using self-reported BMI may lead to an overestimation of mortality risk associated with underweight.

Systematic analysis of factors associated with progression and regression of ulcerative colitis in 918 patients.

BACKGROUND: Studies that systematically assess change in ulcerative colitis (UC) extent over time in adult patients are scarce. AIM: To assess changes in disease extent over time and to evaluate clinical parameters associated with this change. METHODS: Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analysed. We used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with a change in disease extent. RESULTS: A total of 918 UC patients (45.3% females) were included. At diagnosis, UC patients presented with the following disease extent: proctitis [199 patients (21.7%)], left-sided colitis [338 patients (36.8%)] and extensive colitis/pancolitis [381 (41.5%)]. During a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, progression and regression was documented in 145 patients (15.8%) and 149 patients (16.2%) respectively. In addition, 624 patients (68.0%) had a stable disease extent. The following factors were identified to be associated with disease progression: treatment with systemic glucocorticoids [odds ratio (OR) 1.704, P = 0.025] and calcineurin inhibitors (OR: 2.716, P = 0.005). No specific factors were found to be associated with disease regression. CONCLUSIONS: Over a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, about two-thirds of UC patients maintained the initial disease extent; the remaining one-third had experienced either progression or regression of the disease extent.

Different Effects of BORIS/CTCFL on Stemness Gene Expression, Sphere Formation and Cell Survival in Epithelial Cancer Stem Cells.

Cancer stem cells are cancer cells characterized by stem cell properties and represent a small population of tumor cells that drives tumor development, progression, metastasis and drug resistance. To date, the molecular mechanisms that generate and regulate cancer stem cells are not well defined. BORIS (Brother of Regulator of Imprinted Sites) or CTCFL (CTCF-like) is a DNA-binding protein that is expressed in normal tissues only in germ cells and is re-activated in tumors. Recent evidences have highlighted the correlation of BORIS/CTCFL expression with poor overall survival of different cancer patients. We have previously shown an association of BORIS-expressing cells with stemness gene expression in embryonic cancer cells. Here, we studied the role of BORIS in epithelial tumor cells. Using BORIS-molecular beacon that was already validated, we were able to show the presence of BORIS mRNA in cancer stem cell-enriched populations (side population and spheres) of cervical, colon and breast tumor cells. BORIS silencing studies showed a decrease of sphere formation capacity in breast and colon tumor cells. Importantly, BORIS-silencing led to down-regulation of hTERT, stem cell (NANOG, OCT4, SOX2 and BMI1) and cancer stem cell markers (ABCG2, CD44 and ALDH1) genes. Conversely, BORIS-induction led to up-regulation of the same genes. These phenotypes were observed in cervical, colon and invasive breast tumor cells. However, a completely different behavior was observed in the non-invasive breast tumor cells (MCF7). Indeed, these cells acquired an epithelial mesenchymal transition phenotype after BORIS silencing. Our results demonstrate that BORIS is associated with cancer stem cell-enriched populations of several epithelial tumor cells and the different phenotypes depend on the origin of tumor cells.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

Targeting of Fn14 Prevents Cancer-Induced Cachexia and Prolongs Survival.

The cytokine TWEAK and its cognate receptor Fn14 are members of the TNF/TNFR superfamily and are upregulated in tumors. We found that Fn14, when expressed in tumors, causes cachexia and that antibodies against Fn14 dramatically extended lifespan by inhibiting tumor-induced weight loss although having only moderate inhibitory effects on tumor growth. Anti-Fn14 antibodies prevented tumor-induced inflammation and loss of fat and muscle mass. Fn14 signaling in the tumor, rather than host, is responsible for inducing this cachexia because tumors in Fn14- and TWEAK-deficient hosts developed cachexia that was comparable to that of wild-type mice. These results extend the role of Fn14 in wound repair and muscle development to involvement in the etiology of cachexia and indicate that Fn14 antibodies may be a promising approach to treat cachexia, thereby extending lifespan and improving quality of life for cancer patients.

Epidemiology and outcome of fungemia in a cancer Cohort of the Infectious Diseases Group (IDG) of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC 65031).

BACKGROUND: Anti-cancer treatment and the cancer population have evolved since the last European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) fungemia survey, and there are few recent large epidemiological studies. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study including 145 030 admissions of patients with cancer from 13 EORTC centers. Incidence, clinical characteristics, and outcome of fungemia were analyzed. RESULTS: Fungemia occurred in 333 (0.23%; 95% confidence interval [CI], .21-.26) patients, ranging from 0.15% in patients with solid tumors to 1.55% in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation recipients. In 297 evaluable patients age ranged from 17 to 88 years (median 56 years), 144 (48%) patients were female, 165 (56%) had solid tumors, and 140 (47%) had hematological malignancies. Fungemia including polymicrobial infection was due to: Candida spp. in 267 (90%), C. albicans in 128 (48%), and other Candida spp. in 145 (54%) patients. Favorable overall response was achieved in 113 (46.5%) patients by week 2. After 4 weeks, the survival rate was 64% (95% CI, 59%-70%) and was not significantly different between Candida spp. Multivariable logistic regression identified baseline septic shock (odds ratio [OR] 3.04, 95% CI, 1.22-7.58) and tachypnoea as poor prognostic factors (OR 2.95, 95% CI, 1.66-5.24), while antifungal prophylaxis prior to fungemia (OR 0.20, 95% CI, .06-.62) and remission of underlying cancer (OR, 0.18; 95% CI, .06-.50) were protective. CONCLUSIONS: Fungemia, mostly due to Candida spp., was rare in cancer patients from EORTC centers but was associated with substantial mortality. Antifungal prophylaxis and remission of cancer predicted better survival.

High hepatic and extrahepatic mortality and low treatment uptake in HCV-coinfected persons in the Swiss HIV cohort study between 2001 and 2013.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The landscape of HCV treatments is changing dramatically. At the beginning of this new era, we highlight the challenges for HCV therapy by assessing the long-term epidemiological trends in treatment uptake, efficacy and mortality among HIV/HCV-coinfected people since the availability of HCV therapy. METHODS: We included all SHCS participants with detectable HCV RNA between 2001 and 2013. To identify predictors for treatment uptake uni- and multivariable Poisson regression models were applied. We further used survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression with drop-out as competing risk. RESULTS: Of 12,401 participants 2107 (17%) were HCV RNA positive. Of those, 636 (30%) started treatment with an incidence of 5.8/100 person years (PY) (95% CI 5.3-6.2). Sustained virological response (SVR) with pegylated interferon/ribavirin was achieved in 50% of treated patients, representing 15% of all participants with replicating HCV-infection. 344 of 2107 (16%) HCV RNA positive persons died, 59% from extrahepatic causes. Mortality/100 PY was 2.9 (95% CI 2.6-3.2) in untreated patients, 1.3 (1.0-1.8) in those treated with failure, and 0.6 (0.4-1.0) in patients with SVR. In 2013, 869/2107 (41%) participants remained HCV RNA positive. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 13years HCV treatment uptake was low and by the end of 2013, a large number of persons remain to be treated. Mortality was high, particularly in untreated patients, and mainly due to non-liver-related causes. Accordingly, in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, integrative care including the diagnosis and therapy of somatic and psychiatric disorders is important to achieve mortality rates similar to HIV-monoinfected patients.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.