995 resultados para Stochastic Evaluation


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Clustering analysis is a useful tool to detect and monitor disease patterns and, consequently, to contribute for an effective population disease management. Portugal has the highest incidence of tuberculosis in the European Union (in 2012, 21.6 cases per 100.000 inhabitants), although it has been decreasing consistently. Two critical PTB (Pulmonary Tuberculosis) areas, metropolitan Oporto and metropolitan Lisbon regions, were previously identified through spatial and space-time clustering for PTB incidence rate and risk factors. Identifying clusters of temporal trends can further elucidate policy makers about municipalities showing a faster or a slower TB control improvement.

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Introduction: Hearing loss h sone raised impact in the development and academic progress of a child. In several developed countries, early detection is part of the national health plan through universal neonatal hearing screening (UNHS) and also with school hearing screening programs (SHSP), but only a few have published national data and revised protocols. Currently in Portugal, the UNHS is implemented in the main district hospitals but not the SHPS, as well we still do not make use of concrete data nor publication of studies on the national reality. Objectives: The incidence of the hearing loss and of otological problems was studied in school communities in the north of the country with 2550 participants between 3 and 17 years old. Methods: Statistical data collected within the schools with a standard auditory hearing screening protocol. All participants were evaluated with the same protocol, an audiological anamnesis, otoscopy and audiometric exam screening (500, 1000, 2000 and 4000 Hz) were fulfilled. Results: Different otological problems were identified and the audiometric screening exam counted auditory thresholds that outpointed uni and bilateral hearing loss in about 5.7% of the cases. Conclusions: The study has demonstrated that auditory school screening should take place as early as possible and be part of the primary health care to identify and direct children to appropriate rehabilitation, education and attendance. Thus, reducing high costs with late treatment.

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The antioxidant activity and phenolic composition of brewer's spent grain (BSG) extracts obtained by microwave-assisted extraction from twomalt types (light and darkmalts) were investigated. The total phenolic content (TPC) and antioxidant activity among the light BSG extracts (pilsen, melano, melano 80 and carared)were significantly different (p b 0.05) compared to dark extracts (chocolate and black types), with the pilsen BSG showing higher TPC (20 ± 1 mgGAE/g dry BSG). In addition, the antioxidant activity assessed by 2,2-diphenyl- 1-picrylhydrazyl, 2,2′-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) and deoxyribose assays decreased as a result of increasing kilning temperatures in the following order: pilsen N melano N melano 80 N carared N chocolate N black. HPLC-DAD/ESI-MS/MS analysis indicated the presence of phenolic acids, such as ferulic, p-coumaric and syringic acids, as well as several isomeric ferulate dehydrodimers and one dehydrotrimer. Chocolate and black extracts, obtained frommalts submitted to the highest kilning temperatures, showed the lowest levels of ferulic and p-coumaric acids. These results suggested that BSG extracts from pilsen malt might be used as an inexpensive and good natural source of antioxidants with potential interest for the food, pharmaceutical and/or cosmetic industries after purification.

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An analytical method using microwave-assisted extraction (MAE) and liquid chromatography (LC) with fluorescence detection (FD) for the determination of ochratoxin A (OTA) in bread samples is described. A 24 orthogonal composite design coupled with response surface methodology was used to study the influence of MAE parameters (extraction time, temperature, solvent volume, and stirring speed) in order to maximize OTA recovery. The optimized MAE conditions were the following: 25 mL of acetonitrile, 10 min of extraction, at 80 °C, and maximum stirring speed. Validation of the overall methodology was performed by spiking assays at five levels (0.1–3.00 ng/g). The quantification limit was 0.005 ng/g. The established method was then applied to 64 bread samples (wheat, maize, and wheat/maize bread) collected in Oporto region (Northern Portugal). OTAwas detected in 84 % of the samples with a maximum value of 2.87 ng/g below the European maximum limit established for OTA in cereal products of 3 ng/g.

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Atmospheric pollution by motor vehicles is considered a relevant source of damage to architectural heritage. Thus the aim of this work was to assess the atmospheric depositions and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in façades of historical monuments. Eighteen PAHs (16 PAHs considered by US EPA as priority pollutants, dibenzo[a,l]pyrene and benzo[j]fluoranthene) were determined in thin black layers collected from façades of two historical monuments: Hospital Santo António and Lapa Church (Oporto, Portugal). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used for morphological and elemental characterisation of thin black layers; PAHs were quantified by microwave-assisted extraction combined with liquid chromatography (MAE-LC). The thickness of thin black layers were 80–110 μm and they contained significant levels of iron, sulfur, calcium and phosphorus. Total concentrations of 18 PAHs ranged from 7.74 to 147.92 ng/g (mean of 45.52 ng/g) in thin black layers of Hospital Santo António, giving a range three times lower than at Lapa Church (5.44– 429.26 ng/g; mean of 110.25 ng/g); four to six rings compounds accounted at both monuments approximately for 80–85% of ΣPAHs. The diagnostic ratios showed that traffic emissions were significant source of PAHs in thin black layers. Composition profiles of PAHs in thin black layers of both monuments were similar to those of ambient air, thus showing that air pollution has a significant impact on the conditions and stone decay of historical building façades. The obtained results confirm that historical monuments in urban areas act as passive repositories for air pollutants present in the surrounding atmosphere.

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Managing programming exercises require several heterogeneous systems such as evaluation engines, learning objects repositories and exercise resolution environments. The coordination of networks of such disparate systems is rather complex. These tools would be too specific to incorporate in an e-Learning platform. Even if they could be provided as pluggable components, the burden of maintaining them would be prohibitive to institutions with few courses in those domains. This work presents a standard based approach for the coordination of a network of e-Learning systems participating on the automatic evaluation of programming exercises. The proposed approach uses a pivot component to orchestrate the interaction among all the systems using communication standards. This approach was validated through its effective use on classroom and we present some preliminary results.

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In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

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This paper focuses on evaluating the usability of an Intelligent Wheelchair (IW) in both real and simulated environments. The wheelchair is controlled at a high-level by a flexible multimodal interface, using voice commands, facial expressions, head movements and joystick as its main inputs. A Quasi-experimental design was applied including a deterministic sample with a questionnaire that enabled to apply the System Usability Scale. The subjects were divided in two independent samples: 46 individuals performing the experiment with an Intelligent Wheelchair in a simulated environment (28 using different commands in a sequential way and 18 with the liberty to choose the command); 12 individuals performing the experiment with a real IW. The main conclusion achieved by this study is that the usability of the Intelligent Wheelchair in a real environment is higher than in the simulated environment. However there were not statistical evidences to affirm that there are differences between the real and simulated wheelchairs in terms of safety and control. Also, most of users considered the multimodal way of driving the wheelchair very practical and satisfactory. Thus, it may be concluded that the multimodal interfaces enables very easy and safe control of the IW both in simulated and real environments.

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This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

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The goal of the this paper is to show that the DGPS data Internet service we designed and developed provides campus-wide real time access to Differential GPS (DGPS) data and, thus, supports precise outdoor navigation. First we describe the developed distributed system in terms of architecture (a three tier client/server application), services provided (real time DGPS data transportation from remote DGPS sources and campus wide data dissemination) and transmission modes implemented (raw and frame mode over TCP and UDP). Then we present and discuss the results obtained and, finally, we draw some conclusions.

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This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

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Micro-generation is the small scale production of heat and/or electricity from a low carbon source and can be a powerful driver for carbon reduction, behavior change, security of supply and economic value. The energy conversion technologies can include photovoltaic panels, micro combined heat and power, micro wind, heat pumps, solar thermal systems, fuel cells and micro hydro schemes. In this paper, a small research of the availability of the conversion apparatus and the prices for the micro wind turbines and photovoltaic systems is made and a comparison between these two technologies is performed in terms of the availability of the resource and costs. An analysis of the new legal framework published in Portugal is done to realize if the incentives to individualspsila investment in sustainable and local energy production is worth for their point of view. An economic evaluation for these alternatives, accounting with the governmentpsilas incentives should lead, in most cases, into attractive return rates for the investment. Apart from the attractiveness of the investment there are though other aspects that should be taken into account and those are the benefits that these choices have to us all. The idea is that micro-generation will not only make a significant direct contribution to carbon reduction targets, it will also trigger a multiplier effect in behavior change by engaging hearts and minds, and providing more efficient use of energy by householders. The diversified profile of power generation by micro-generators, both in terms of location and timing, should reduce the impact of intermittency or plant failures with significant gains for security of supply.

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Academic evaluation has been an essential component of modern science since its inception, as science has moved away from personalized patronage toward its contemporary role as an essential enterprise of contemporary, democratic societies. In recent years, Brazil has experienced sustained growth in its scientific output, which is nowadays fully compatible with its status as a high middle-income country striving to become a fully developed, more equitable country in the years to come. Growth usually takes place amidst challenges and dilemmas and, in Brazil as elsewhere, academic evaluation is not exempt from such difficulties. In a large, profoundly heterogeneous country with a national evaluation system and nationwide on-line platforms disseminating information on the most disparate fields of knowledge, the main challenges refer to how to pay attention to detail without losing sight of comprehensiveness and how to handle social and regional diversity while preserving academic excellence as the fundamental benchmark.

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Introduction: The purpose of this review is to gather and analyse current research publications to evaluate Sinogram-Affirmed Iterative Reconstruction (SAFIRE). The aim of this review is to investigate whether this algorithm is capable of reducing the dose delivered during CT imaging while maintaining image quality. Recent research shows that children have a greater risk per unit dose due to increased radiosensitivity and longer life expectancies, which means it is particularly important to reduce the radiation dose received by children. Discussion: Recent publications suggest that SAFIRE is capable of reducing image noise in CT images, thereby enabling the potential to reduce dose. Some publications suggest a decrease in dose, by up to 64% compared to filtered back projection, can be accomplished without a change in image quality. However, literature suggests that using a higher SAFIRE strength may alter the image texture, creating an overly ‘smoothed’ image that lacks contrast. Some literature reports SAFIRE gives decreased low contrast detectability as well as spatial resolution. Publications tend to agree that SAFIRE strength three is optimal for an acceptable level of visual image quality, but more research is required. The importance of creating a balance between dose reduction and image quality is stressed. In this literature review most of the publications were completed using adults or phantoms, and a distinct lack of literature for paediatric patients is noted. Conclusion: It is necessary to find an optimal way to balance dose reduction and image quality. More research relating to SAFIRE and paediatric patients is required to fully investigate dose reduction potential in this population, for a range of different SAFIRE strengths.

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The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol has the ability to support time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) applications due to the Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) Medium Access Control mechanism. Recently, several analytical and simulation models of the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol have been proposed. Nevertheless, currently available simulation models for this protocol are both inaccurate and incomplete, and in particular they do not support the GTS mechanism. In this paper, we propose an accurate OPNET simulation model, with focus on the implementation of the GTS mechanism. The motivation that has driven this work is the validation of the Network Calculus based analytical model of the GTS mechanism that has been previously proposed and to compare the performance evaluation of the protocol as given by the two alternative approaches. Therefore, in this paper we contribute an accurate OPNET model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol. Additionally, and probably more importantly, based on the simulation model we propose a novel methodology to tune the protocol parameters such that a better performance of the protocol can be guaranteed, both concerning maximizing the throughput of the allocated GTS as well as concerning minimizing frame delay.