Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an ``adaptive threshold,'' i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Fusion of algorithms for compressed sensing

For compressed sensing (CS), we develop a new scheme inspired by data fusion principles. In the proposed fusion based scheme, several CS reconstruction algorithms participate and they are executed in parallel, independently. The final estimate of the underlying sparse signal is derived by fusing the estimates obtained from the participating algorithms. We theoretically analyze this fusion based scheme and derive sufficient conditions for achieving a better reconstruction performance than any participating algorithm. Through simulations, we show that the proposed scheme has two specific advantages: 1) it provides good performance in a low dimensional measurement regime, and 2) it can deal with different statistical natures of the underlying sparse signals. The experimental results on real ECG signals shows that the proposed scheme demands fewer CS measurements for an approximate sparse signal reconstruction.

Application of the random eigenvalue problem in forced response analysis of a linear stochastic structure

The random eigenvalue problem arises in frequency and mode shape determination for a linear system with uncertainties in structural properties. Among several methods of characterizing this random eigenvalue problem, one computationally fast method that gives good accuracy is a weak formulation using polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). In this method, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors are expanded in PCE, and the residual is minimized by a Galerkin projection. The goals of the current work are (i) to implement this PCE-characterized random eigenvalue problem in the dynamic response calculation under random loading and (ii) to explore the computational advantages and challenges. In the proposed method, the response quantities are also expressed in PCE followed by a Galerkin projection. A numerical comparison with a perturbation method and the Monte Carlo simulation shows that when the loading has a random amplitude but deterministic frequency content, the proposed method gives more accurate results than a first-order perturbation method and a comparable accuracy as the Monte Carlo simulation in a lower computational time. However, as the frequency content of the loading becomes random, or for general random process loadings, the method loses its accuracy and computational efficiency. Issues in implementation, limitations, and further challenges are also addressed.

En Masse relay selection algorithms for multi-source, multi-relay, decode-and-forward cooperative systems

Opportunistic relay selection in a multiple source-destination (MSD) cooperative system requires quickly allocating to each source-destination (SD) pair a suitable relay based on channel gains. Since the channel knowledge is available only locally at a relay and not globally, efficient relay selection algorithms are needed. For an MSD system, in which the SD pairs communicate in a time-orthogonal manner with the help of decode-and-forward relays, we propose three novel relay selection algorithms, namely, contention-free en masse assignment (CFEA), contention-based en masse assignment (CBEA), and a hybrid algorithm that combines the best features of CFEA and CBEA. En masse assignment exploits the fact that a relay can often aid not one but multiple SD pairs, and, therefore, can be assigned to multiple SD pairs. This drastically reduces the average time required to allocate an SD pair when compared to allocating the SD pairs one by one. We show that the algorithms are much faster than other selection schemes proposed in the literature and yield significantly higher net system throughputs. Interestingly, CFEA is as effective as CBEA over a wider range of system parameters than in single SD pair systems.

Confinement induced stochastic sensing of charged coronene and perylene aggregates in alpha-hemolysin nanochannels

Biological nanopores provide optimum dimensions and an optimal environment to study early aggregation kinetics of charged polyaromatic molecules in the nano-confined regime. It is expected that probing early stages of nucleation will enable us to design a strategy for supramolecular assembly and biocrystallization processes. Specifically, we have studied translocation dynamics of coronene and perylene based salts, through the alpha-hemolysin (alpha-HL) protein nanopore. The characteristic blocking events in the time-series signal are a function of concentration and bias voltage. We argue that different blocking events arise due to different aggregation processes as captured by all atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. These confinement induced aggregations of polyaromatic chromophores during the different stages of translocation are correlated with the spatial symmetry and charge distribution of the molecules.

Maximum likelihood algorithms for joint estimation of synchronisation impairments and channel in multiple input multiple output-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing system

Maximum likelihood (ML) algorithms, for the joint estimation of synchronisation impairments and channel in multiple input multiple output-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) system, are investigated in this work. A system model that takes into account the effects of carrier frequency offset, sampling frequency offset, symbol timing error and channel impulse response is formulated. Cramer-Rao lower bounds for the estimation of continuous parameters are derived, which show the coupling effect among different impairments and the significance of the joint estimation. The authors propose an ML algorithm for the estimation of synchronisation impairments and channel together, using the grid search method. To reduce the complexity of the joint grid search in the ML algorithm, a modified ML (MML) algorithm with multiple one-dimensional searches is also proposed. Further, a stage-wise ML (SML) algorithm using existing algorithms, which estimate less number of parameters, is also proposed. Performance of the estimation algorithms is studied through numerical simulations and it is found that the proposed ML and MML algorithms exhibit better performance than SML algorithm.

Solving MIN ONES 2-SAT as fast as VERTEX COVER

The problem of finding a satisfying assignment that minimizes the number of variables that are set to 1 is NP-complete even for a satisfiable 2-SAT formula. We call this problem MIN ONES 2-SAT. It generalizes the well-studied problem of finding the smallest vertex cover of a graph, which can be modeled using a 2-SAT formula with no negative literals. The natural parameterized version of the problem asks for a satisfying assignment of weight at most k. In this paper, we present a polynomial-time reduction from MIN ONES 2-SAT to VERTEX COVER without increasing the parameter and ensuring that the number of vertices in the reduced instance is equal to the number of variables of the input formula. Consequently, we conclude that this problem also has a simple 2-approximation algorithm and a 2k - c logk-variable kernel subsuming (or, in the case of kernels, improving) the results known earlier. Further, the problem admits algorithms for the parameterized and optimization versions whose runtimes will always match the runtimes of the best-known algorithms for the corresponding versions of vertex cover. Finally we show that the optimum value of the LP relaxation of the MIN ONES 2-SAT and that of the corresponding VERTEX COVER are the same. This implies that the (recent) results of VERTEX COVER version parameterized above the optimum value of the LP relaxation of VERTEX COVER carry over to the MIN ONES 2-SAT version parameterized above the optimum of the LP relaxation of MIN ONES 2-SAT. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constraining complex aquifer geometry with geophysics (2-D ERT and MRS measurements) for stochastic modelling of groundwater flow

Stochastic modelling is a useful way of simulating complex hard-rock aquifers as hydrological properties (permeability, porosity etc.) can be described using random variables with known statistics. However, very few studies have assessed the influence of topological uncertainty (i.e. the variability of thickness of conductive zones in the aquifer), probably because it is not easy to retrieve accurate statistics of the aquifer geometry, especially in hard rock context. In this paper, we assessed the potential of using geophysical surveys to describe the geometry of a hard rock-aquifer in a stochastic modelling framework. The study site was a small experimental watershed in South India, where the aquifer consisted of a clayey to loamy-sandy zone (regolith) underlain by a conductive fissured rock layer (protolith) and the unweathered gneiss (bedrock) at the bottom. The spatial variability of the thickness of the regolith and fissured layers was estimated by electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles, which were performed along a few cross sections in the watershed. For stochastic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, the generated random layer thickness was made conditional to the available data from the geophysics. In order to simulate steady state flow in the irregular domain with variable geometry, we used an isoparametric finite element method to discretize the flow equation over an unstructured grid with irregular hexahedral elements. The results indicated that the spatial variability of the layer thickness had a significant effect on reducing the simulated effective steady seepage flux and that using the conditional simulations reduced the uncertainty of the simulated seepage flux. As a conclusion, combining information on the aquifer geometry obtained from geophysical surveys with stochastic modelling is a promising methodology to improve the simulation of groundwater flow in complex hard-rock aquifers. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reaction dynamics under confinement: an exact path integral treatment of a two-stage model of stochastic gene expression

Gene expression in living systems is inherently stochastic, and tends to produce varying numbers of proteins over repeated cycles of transcription and translation. In this paper, an expression is derived for the steady-state protein number distribution starting from a two-stage kinetic model of the gene expression process involving p proteins and r mRNAs. The derivation is based on an exact path integral evaluation of the joint distribution, P(p, r, t), of p and r at time t, which can be expressed in terms of the coupled Langevin equations for p and r that represent the two-stage model in continuum form. The steady-state distribution of p alone, P(p), is obtained from P(p, r, t) (a bivariate Gaussian) by integrating out the r degrees of freedom and taking the limit t -> infinity. P(p) is found to be proportional to the product of a Gaussian and a complementary error function. It provides a generally satisfactory fit to simulation data on the same two-stage process when the translational efficiency (a measure of intrinsic noise levels in the system) is relatively low; it is less successful as a model of the data when the translational efficiency (and noise levels) are high.

Zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic games on a countable state space

Infinite horizon discounted-cost and ergodic-cost risk-sensitive zero-sum stochastic games for controlled Markov chains with countably many states are analyzed. Upper and lower values for these games are established. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of Markov strategies is proved for the discounted-cost game. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of stationary strategies is proved under the uniform ergodicity condition for the ergodic-cost game. The value of the ergodic-cost game happens to be the product of the inverse of the risk-sensitivity factor and the logarithm of the common Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of the associated controlled nonlinear kernels. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Iterated gain-based stochastic filters for dynamic system identification

We propose a novel form of nonlinear stochastic filtering based on an iterative evaluation of a Kalman-like gain matrix computed within a Monte Carlo scheme as suggested by the form of the parent equation of nonlinear filtering (Kushner-Stratonovich equation) and retains the simplicity of implementation of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The numerical results, presently obtained via EnKF-like simulations with or without a reduced-rank unscented transformation, clearly indicate remarkably superior filter convergence and accuracy vis-a-vis most available filtering schemes and eminent applicability of the methods to higher dimensional dynamic system identification problems of engineering interest. (C) 2013 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FUSION OF ALGORITHMS FOR COMPRESSED SENSING

Numerous algorithms have been proposed recently for sparse signal recovery in Compressed Sensing (CS). In practice, the number of measurements can be very limited due to the nature of the problem and/or the underlying statistical distribution of the non-zero elements of the sparse signal may not be known a priori. It has been observed that the performance of any sparse signal recovery algorithm depends on these factors, which makes the selection of a suitable sparse recovery algorithm difficult. To take advantage in such situations, we propose to use a fusion framework using which we employ multiple sparse signal recovery algorithms and fuse their estimates to get a better estimate. Theoretical results justifying the performance improvement are shown. The efficacy of the proposed scheme is demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations using synthetic sparse signals and ECG signals selected from MIT-BIH database.

Zero-Sum Stochastic Games with Partial Information and Average Payoff

We consider a discrete time partially observable zero-sum stochastic game with average payoff criterion. We study the game using an equivalent completely observable game. We show that the game has a value and also we present a pair of optimal strategies for both the players.