Spinning welfare: The gains from process innovation in cotton and car production

Economists and economic historians want to know how much better life is today than in the past.Fifty years ago economic historians found surprisingly small gains from 19th century US railroads,while more recently economists have found relatively large gains from electricity, computers and cellphones. In each case the implicit or explicit assumption is that researchers were measuring the valueof a new good to society. In this paper we use the same techniques to find the value to society ofmaking existing goods cheaper. Henry Ford did not invent the car, and the inventors of mechanisedcotton spinning in the industrial revolution invented no new product. But both made existing productsdramatically cheaper, bringing them into the reach of many more consumers. That in turn haspotentially large welfare effects. We find that the consumer surplus of Henry Ford s production linewas around 2% by 1923, 15 years after Ford began to implement the moving assembly line, while themechanisation of cotton spinning was worth around 6% by 1820, 34 years after its initial invention.Both are large: of the same order of magnitude as consumer expenditure on these items, and as largeor larger than the value of the internet to consumers. On the social savings measure traditionally usedby economic historians, these process innovations were worth 15% and 18% respectively, makingthem more important than railroads. Our results remind us that process innovations can be at least asimportant for welfare and productivity as the invention of new products.

Finite sample nonparametric tests for linear regressions

We introduce several exact nonparametric tests for finite sample multivariatelinear regressions, and compare their powers. This fills an important gap inthe literature where the only known nonparametric tests are either asymptotic,or assume one covariate only.

Assignment strategies for large proteins by magic-angle spinning NMR: the 21-kDa disulfide-bond-forming enzyme DsbA.

We present strategies for chemical shift assignments of large proteins by magic-angle spinning solid-state NMR, using the 21-kDa disulfide-bond-forming enzyme DsbA as prototype. Previous studies have demonstrated that complete de novo assignments are possible for proteins up to approximately 17 kDa, and partial assignments have been performed for several larger proteins. Here we show that combinations of isotopic labeling strategies, high field correlation spectroscopy, and three-dimensional (3D) and four-dimensional (4D) backbone correlation experiments yield highly confident assignments for more than 90% of backbone resonances in DsbA. Samples were prepared as nanocrystalline precipitates by a dialysis procedure, resulting in heterogeneous linewidths below 0.2 ppm. Thus, high magnetic fields, selective decoupling pulse sequences, and sparse isotopic labeling all improved spectral resolution. Assignments by amino acid type were facilitated by particular combinations of pulse sequences and isotopic labeling; for example, transferred echo double resonance experiments enhanced sensitivity for Pro and Gly residues; [2-(13)C]glycerol labeling clarified Val, Ile, and Leu assignments; in-phase anti-phase correlation spectra enabled interpretation of otherwise crowded Glx/Asx side-chain regions; and 3D NCACX experiments on [2-(13)C]glycerol samples provided unique sets of aromatic (Phe, Tyr, and Trp) correlations. Together with high-sensitivity CANCOCA 4D experiments and CANCOCX 3D experiments, unambiguous backbone walks could be performed throughout the majority of the sequence. At 189 residues, DsbA represents the largest monomeric unit for which essentially complete solid-state NMR assignments have so far been achieved. These results will facilitate studies of nanocrystalline DsbA structure and dynamics and will enable analysis of its 41-kDa covalent complex with the membrane protein DsbB, for which we demonstrate a high-resolution two-dimensional (13)C-(13)C spectrum.

Geochemistry and stable isotope composition of fresh alkaline porphyry copper tailings: Implications on sources and mobility of elements during transport and early stages of deposition

Prevention of acid mine drainage (AMD) in sulfide-containing tailings requires the identification of the geochemical processes and element pathways in the early stages of tailing deposition. However, analyses of recently deposited tailings in active tailings impoundments are scarce because mineralogical changes occur near the detection limits of many assays. This study shows that a detailed geochemical study which includes stable isotopes of water (delta H-2, delta O-18), dissolved sulfates (delta S-34, delta O-18) and hydrochernical parameter (pH, Eh, DOC, major and trace elements) from tailings samples taken at different depths in rainy and dry seasons allows the understanding of weathering (oxidation, dissolution, sorption, and desorption), water and element pathways, and mixing processes in active tailings impoundments. Fresh alkaline tailings (pH 9.2-10.2) from the Cu-Mo porphyry deposit in El Teniente, Chile had low carbonate (0.8-1.1 Wt-% CaCO3 equivalent) and sulfide concentrations (0.8-1.3 wt.%, mainly as pyrite). In the alkaline tailings water, Mo and Cu (up to 3.9 mg/L Mo and 0.016 mg/L Cu) were mobile as MoO42- and Cu (OH)(2)(0). During the flotation, tailings water reached equilibrium with gypsum (up to 738 mg/L Ca and 1765 mg/ L SO4). The delta S-34 VS. delta O-18 covariations of dissolved sulfate (2.3 to 4.5% delta S-34 and 4.1 to 6.0 % delta O-18) revealed the sulfate sources: the dissolution of primary sulfates (12.0 to 13.2%. delta S-34, 7.4 to 10.9%.delta O-18) and oxidation of primary sulfides (-6.7 to 1.7%. delta S-34). Sedimented tailings in the tailings impoundment can be divided into three layers with different water sources, element pathways, and geochemical processes. The deeper sediments (> 1 m depth) were infiltrated by catchment water, which partly replaced the original tailings water, especially during the winter season. This may have resulted in the change from alkaline to near-neutral pH and towards lower concentrations of most dissolved elements. The neutral pH and high DOC (up to 99.4 mg/L C) of the catchment water mobilized Cu (up to 0.25 mg/L) due to formation of organic Cu complexes; and Zn (up to 130 mg/L) due to dissolution of Zn oxides and desorption). At I m depth, tailings pore water obtained during the winter season was chemically and isotopically similar to fresh tailings water (pH 9.8-10.6, 26.7-35.5 mg/L Cl, 2.3-6.0 mg/L Mo). During the summer, a vadose zone evolved locally and temporarily up to 1.2 m depth. resulting in a higher concentration of dissolved solids in the pore water due to evaporation. During periodical new deposition of fresh tailings, the geochemistry of the surface layer was geochemically similar to fresh tailings. In periods without deposition, sulfide oxidation was suggested by decreasing pH (7.7-9.5), enrichment of MoO42- and SO42-, and changes in the isotopic composition of dissolved sulfates. Further enrichment for Na, K, Cl, SO4, Mg, Cu, and Mo (up to 23.8 mg/L Mo) resulted from capillary transport towards the surface followed by evaporation and the precipitation of highly soluble efflorescent salts (e.g., mirabilite, syngenite) at the tailing surface during summer. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

On equilibria in duopolies with finite strategy spaces

We will call a game a reachable (pure strategy) equilibria game if startingfrom any strategy by any player, by a sequence of best-response moves weare able to reach a (pure strategy) equilibrium. We give a characterizationof all finite strategy space duopolies with reachable equilibria. Wedescribe some applications of the sufficient conditions of the characterization.

Finite horizon bargaining and the consistent field

This paper explores the relationships between noncooperative bargaining games and the consistent value for non-transferable utility (NTU) cooperative games. A dynamic approach to the consistent value for NTU games is introduced: the consistent vector field. The main contribution of the paper is to show that the consistent field is intimately related to the concept of subgame perfection for finite horizon noncooperative bargaining games, as the horizon goes to infinity and the cost of delay goes to zero. The solutions of the dynamic system associated to the consistent field characterize the subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs of the noncooperative bargaining games. We show that for transferable utility, hyperplane and pure bargaining games, the dynamics of the consistent fields converge globally to the unique consistent value. However, in the general NTU case, the dynamics of the consistent field can be complex. An example is constructed where the consistent field has cyclic solutions; moreover, the finite horizon subgame perfect equilibria do not approach the consistent value.

A user's guide to the encyclopedia of DNA elements (ENCODE).

The mission of the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) Project is to enable the scientific and medical communities to interpret the human genome sequence and apply it to understand human biology and improve health. The ENCODE Consortium is integrating multiple technologies and approaches in a collective effort to discover and define the functional elements encoded in the human genome, including genes, transcripts, and transcriptional regulatory regions, together with their attendant chromatin states and DNA methylation patterns. In the process, standards to ensure high-quality data have been implemented, and novel algorithms have been developed to facilitate analysis. Data and derived results are made available through a freely accessible database. Here we provide an overview of the project and the resources it is generating and illustrate the application of ENCODE data to interpret the human genome.

Signaling cross-talk between peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor/retinoid X receptor and estrogen receptor through estrogen response elements.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) and retinoid X receptors (RXRs) are nuclear hormone receptors that are activated by fatty acids and 9-cis-retinoic acid, respectively. PPARs and RXRs form heterodimers that activate transcription by binding to PPAR response elements (PPREs) in the promoter of target genes. The PPREs described thus far consist of a direct tandem repeat of the AGGTCA core element with one intervening nucleotide. We show here that the vitellogenin A2 estrogen response element (ERE) can also function as a PPRE and is bound by a PPAR/RXR heterodimer. Although this heterodimer can bind to several other ERE-related palindromic response elements containing AGGTCA half-sites, only the ERE is able to confer transactivation of test reporter plasmids, when the ERE is placed either close to or at a distance from the transcription initiation site. Examination of natural ERE-containing promoters, including the pS2, very-low-density apolipoprotein II and vitellogenin A2 genes, revealed considerable differences in the binding of PPAR/RXR heterodimers to these EREs. In their natural promoter context, these EREs did not allow transcriptional activation by PPARs/RXRs. Analysis of this lack of stimulation of the vitellogenin A2 promoter demonstrated that PPARs/RXRs bind to the ERE but cannot transactivate due to a nonpermissive promoter structure. As a consequence, PPARs/RXRs inhibit transactivation by the estrogen receptor through competition for ERE binding. This is the first example of signaling cross-talk between PPAR/RXR and estrogen receptor.

Causal assessment in finite extensive-form games

Two finite extensive-form games are empirically equivalent when theempirical distribution on action profiles generated by every behaviorstrategy in one can also be generated by an appropriately chosen behaviorstrategy in the other. This paper provides a characterization ofempirical equivalence. The central idea is to relate a game's informationstructure to the conditional independencies in the empirical distributionsit generates. We present a new analytical device, the influence opportunitydiagram of a game, describe how such a diagram is constructed for a givenextensive-form game, and demonstrate that it provides a complete summaryof the information needed to test empirical equivalence between two games.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intervenció educativa basada en la promoció dels elements facilitadors del desenvolupament positiu de menors subjectes de mesures judicials

Al llarg dels darrers mesos i amb la participació de bona part del col·lectiu d’educadors i tècnics de medi obert del Departament de Justícia de la Generalitat de Catalunya, s’ha fet un treball d’aprofundiment entorn del paper que tenen els elements facilitadors del desenvolupament positiu dels joves que es troben en mesures penals juvenils, com a veritables desencadenants de processos de millora i d’inclusió social. Hem tractat de fer una classificació i guia per identificar aquests elements i una metodologia concreta per determinar-ne la presència o absència. Finalment, hem intentat, comptant amb l’experiència del col·lectiu , elaborar una guia d’eines i estratègies per a la promoció d’aquests elements positius, que poden afavorir el desenvolupament dels menors i facilitar la intervenció del tècnic. Després d’intensos i interessants debats sorgits en les aportacions al Fòrum del portal, i també en les reunions del grup d’entusiastes, hem acabat per definir el concepte, el que entenem, allò a què ens referim quan parlem d’elements facilitadors. És així que,finalment, els definirem com: Tots els recursos personals, familiars, socials i institucionals que promouen el desenvolupament exitós de l’adolescent, o bé que fan disminuir el risc d’aparèixer un desenvolupament alterat. La pretensió del “producte” elaborat no és constituir-se en un document de caràcter teòric, més aviat hem volgut donar-hi un sentit pràctic que l’apropi més a una eina de treball que no pas a un marc teòric de caire general. És per això que, un cop delimitat el concepte i els objectius del producte, el treball ha consistit en la relació i classificació d’aquests elements facilitadors del desenvolupament positiu que trobem en els menors i joves amb qui treballem, i en l’observació de la seva presència, absència o necessitat.

DNA binding properties of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor subtypes on various natural peroxisome proliferator response elements. Importance of the 5'-flanking region.

The three subtypes of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARalpha, beta/delta, and gamma) form heterodimers with the 9-cis-retinoic acid receptor (RXR) and bind to a common consensus response element, which consists of a direct repeat of two hexanucleotides spaced by one nucleotide (DR1). As a first step toward understanding the molecular mechanisms determining PPAR subtype specificity, we evaluated by electrophoretic mobility shift assays the binding properties of the three PPAR subtypes, in association with either RXRalpha or RXRgamma, on 16 natural PPAR response elements (PPREs). The main results are as follows. (i) PPARgamma in combination with either RXRalpha or RXRgamma binds more strongly than PPARalpha or PPARbeta to all natural PPREs tested. (ii) The binding of PPAR to strong elements is reinforced if the heterodimerization partner is RXRgamma. In contrast, weak elements favor RXRalpha as heterodimerization partner. (iii) The ordering of the 16 natural PPREs from strong to weak elements does not depend on the core DR1 sequence, which has a relatively uniform degree of conservation, but correlates with the number of identities of the 5'-flanking nucleotides with respect to a consensus element. This 5'-flanking sequence is essential for PPARalpha binding and thus contributes to subtype specificity. As a demonstration of this, the PPARgamma-specific element ARE6 PPRE is able to bind PPARalpha only if its 5'-flanking region is exchanged with that of the more promiscuous HMG PPRE.

How do thyroid hormone receptors bind to structurally diverse response elements?

Three classes of thyroid hormone response elements have been described. They are composed of two half-sites arranged either as a palindromic, a direct repeat or as an inverted palindromic array. Receptor homodimers as well as heterodimers can bind to all three types of response element. While the ligand binding domain of the receptors provides the major dimerization surface, asymmetric contacts between the DNA binding domains are necessary for binding to a direct repeat. Moreover, some recent findings suggest that in TR, compared to RXR, the ligand binding domain has a 180 degrees rotation with respect to the DNA binding domain. This feature could explain the preferential binding of the RXR-TR heterodimer to the direct repeat response element, in which RXR exclusively binds the 5' half-site, and of the TR homodimer to the inverted palindrome response element.