A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Fujaba Days 2011

Fujaba is an Open Source UML CASE tool project started at the software engineering group of Paderborn University in 1997. In 2002 Fujaba has been redesigned and became the Fujaba Tool Suite with a plug-in architecture allowing developers to add functionality easily while retaining full control over their contributions. Multiple Application Domains Fujaba followed the model-driven development philosophy right from its beginning in 1997. At the early days, Fujaba had a special focus on code generation from UML diagrams resulting in a visual programming language with a special emphasis on object structure manipulating rules. Today, at least six rather independent tool versions are under development in Paderborn, Kassel, and Darmstadt for supporting (1) reengineering, (2) embedded real-time systems, (3) education, (4) specification of distributed control systems, (5) integration with the ECLIPSE platform, and (6) MOF-based integration of system (re-) engineering tools. International Community According to our knowledge, quite a number of research groups have also chosen Fujaba as a platform for UML and MDA related research activities. In addition, quite a number of Fujaba users send requests for more functionality and extensions. Therefore, the 8th International Fujaba Days aimed at bringing together Fujaba develop- ers and Fujaba users from all over the world to present their ideas and projects and to discuss them with each other and with the Fujaba core development team.

Managing Quality Properties of Web Service Compositions

Web services from different partners can be combined to applications that realize a more complex business goal. Such applications built as Web service compositions define how interactions between Web services take place in order to implement the business logic. Web service compositions not only have to provide the desired functionality but also have to comply with certain Quality of Service (QoS) levels. Maximizing the users' satisfaction, also reflected as Quality of Experience (QoE), is a primary goal to be achieved in a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA). Unfortunately, in a dynamic environment like SOA unforeseen situations might appear like services not being available or not responding in the desired time frame. In such situations, appropriate actions need to be triggered in order to avoid the violation of QoS and QoE constraints. In this thesis, proper solutions are developed to manage Web services and Web service compositions with regard to QoS and QoE requirements. The Business Process Rules Language (BPRules) was developed to manage Web service compositions when undesired QoS or QoE values are detected. BPRules provides a rich set of management actions that may be triggered for controlling the service composition and for improving its quality behavior. Regarding the quality properties, BPRules allows to distinguish between the QoS values as they are promised by the service providers, QoE values that were assigned by end-users, the monitored QoS as measured by our BPR framework, and the predicted QoS and QoE values. BPRules facilitates the specification of certain user groups characterized by different context properties and allows triggering a personalized, context-aware service selection tailored for the specified user groups. In a service market where a multitude of services with the same functionality and different quality values are available, the right services need to be selected for realizing the service composition. We developed new and efficient heuristic algorithms that are applied to choose high quality services for the composition. BPRules offers the possibility to integrate multiple service selection algorithms. The selection algorithms are applicable also for non-linear objective functions and constraints. The BPR framework includes new approaches for context-aware service selection and quality property predictions. We consider the location information of users and services as context dimension for the prediction of response time and throughput. The BPR framework combines all new features and contributions to a comprehensive management solution. Furthermore, it facilitates flexible monitoring of QoS properties without having to modify the description of the service composition. We show how the different modules of the BPR framework work together in order to execute the management rules. We evaluate how our selection algorithms outperform a genetic algorithm from related research. The evaluation reveals how context data can be used for a personalized prediction of response time and throughput.

Determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in southwestern Bangladesh

This paper estimates a translog stochastic production function to examine the determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in Bangladesh. Primary data has been collected using random sampling from 90 farmers of three villages in southwestern Bangladesh. Prawn farming displayed much variability in technical efficiency ranging from 9.50 to 99.94% with mean technical efficiency of 65%, which suggested a substantial 35% of potential output can be recovered by removing inefficiency. For a land scarce country like Bangladesh this gain could help increase income and ensure better livelihood for the farmers. Based on the translog production function specification, farmers could be made scale efficient by providing more input to produce more output. The results suggest that farmers’ education and non-farm income significantly improve efficiency whilst farmers’ training, farm distance from the water canal and involvement in fish farm associations reduces efficiency. Hence, the study proposes strategies such as less involvement in farming-related associations and raising the effective training facilities of the farmers as beneficial adjustments for reducing inefficiency. Moreover, the key policy implication of the analysis is that investment in primary education would greatly improve technical efficiency.

Formal Multilevel Hierarchical Verification of Synchronous MOS Circuits

I have designed and implemented a system for the multilevel verification of synchronous MOS VLSI circuits. The system, called Silica Pithecus, accepts the schematic of an MOS circuit and a specification of the circuit's intended digital behavior. Silica Pithecus determines if the circuit meets its specification. If the circuit fails to meet its specification Silica Pithecus returns to the designer the reason for the failure. Unlike earlier verifiers which modelled primitives (e.g., transistors) as unidirectional digital devices, Silica Pithecus models primitives more realistically. Transistors are modelled as bidirectional devices of varying resistances, and nodes are modelled as capacitors. Silica Pithecus operates hierarchically, interactively, and incrementally. Major contributions of this research include a formal understanding of the relationship between different behavioral descriptions (e.g., signal, boolean, and arithmetic descriptions) of the same device, and a formalization of the relationship between the structure, behavior, and context of device. Given these formal structures my methods find sufficient conditions on the inputs of circuits which guarantee the correct operation of the circuit in the desired descriptive domain. These methods are algorithmic and complete. They also handle complex phenomena such as races and charge sharing. Informal notions such as races and hazards are shown to be derivable from the correctness conditions used by my methods.

Derivation of an Efficient Rule System Pattern Matcher

Formalizing algorithm derivations is a necessary prerequisite for developing automated algorithm design systems. This report describes a derivation of an algorithm for incrementally matching conjunctive patterns against a growing database. This algorithm, which is modeled on the Rete matcher used in the OPS5 production system, forms a basis for efficiently implementing a rule system. The highlights of this derivation are: (1) a formal specification for the rule system matching problem, (2) derivation of an algorithm for this task using a lattice-theoretic model of conjunctive and disjunctive variable substitutions, and (3) optimization of this algorithm, using finite differencing, for incrementally processing new data.

Virtual Model Control of a Biped Walking Robot

The transformation from high level task specification to low level motion control is a fundamental issue in sensorimotor control in animals and robots. This thesis develops a control scheme called virtual model control which addresses this issue. Virtual model control is a motion control language which uses simulations of imagined mechanical components to create forces, which are applied through joint torques, thereby creating the illusion that the components are connected to the robot. Due to the intuitive nature of this technique, designing a virtual model controller requires the same skills as designing the mechanism itself. A high level control system can be cascaded with the low level virtual model controller to modulate the parameters of the virtual mechanisms. Discrete commands from the high level controller would then result in fluid motion. An extension of Gardner's Partitioned Actuator Set Control method is developed. This method allows for the specification of constraints on the generalized forces which each serial path of a parallel mechanism can apply. Virtual model control has been applied to a bipedal walking robot. A simple algorithm utilizing a simple set of virtual components has successfully compelled the robot to walk eight consecutive steps.

Virtual Model Control of a Hexapod Walking Robot

Since robots are typically designed with an individual actuator at each joint, the control of these systems is often difficult and non-intuitive. This thesis explains a more intuitive control scheme called Virtual Model Control. This thesis also demonstrates the simplicity and ease of this control method by using it to control a simulated walking hexapod. Virtual Model Control uses imagined mechanical components to create virtual forces, which are applied through the joint torques of real actuators. This method produces a straightforward means of controlling joint torques to produce a desired robot behavior. Due to the intuitive nature of this control scheme, the design of a virtual model controller is similar to the design of a controller with basic mechanical components. The ease of this control scheme facilitates the use of a high level control system which can be used above the low level virtual model controllers to modulate the parameters of the imaginary mechanical components. In order to apply Virtual Model Control to parallel mechanisms, a solution to the force distribution problem is required. This thesis uses an extension of Gardner`s Partitioned Force Control method which allows for the specification of constrained degrees of freedom. This virtual model control technique was applied to a simulated hexapod robot. Although the hexapod is a highly non-linear, parallel mechanism, the virtual models allowed text-book control solutions to be used while the robot was walking. Using a simple linear control law, the robot walked while simultaneously balancing a pendulum and tracking an object.

Incremental Verification of Timing Constraints for Real-Time Systems

Testing constraints for real-time systems are usually verified through the satisfiability of propositional formulae. In this paper, we propose an alternative where the verification of timing constraints can be done by counting the number of truth assignments instead of boolean satisfiability. This number can also tell us how “far away” is a given specification from satisfying its safety assertion. Furthermore, specifications and safety assertions are often modified in an incremental fashion, where problematic bugs are fixed one at a time. To support this development, we propose an incremental algorithm for counting satisfiability. Our proposed incremental algorithm is optimal as no unnecessary nodes are created during each counting. This works for the class of path RTL. To illustrate this application, we show how incremental satisfiability counting can be applied to a well-known rail-road crossing example, particularly when its specification is still being refined.

A Privacy Conscious Bluetooth Infrastructure for Location Aware Computing

We present a low cost and easily deployed infrastructure for location aware computing that is built using standard Bluetooth® technologies and personal computers. Mobile devices are able to determine their location to room-level granularity with existing bluetooth technology, and to even greater resolution with the use of the recently adopted bluetooth 1.2 specification, all while maintaining complete anonymity. Various techniques for improving the speed and resolution of the system are described, along with their tradeoffs in privacy. The system is trivial to implement on a large scale – our network covering 5,000 square meters was deployed by a single student over the course of a few days at a cost of less than US$1,000.

Performance-Driven Microfabrication-Oriented Methodology for MEMS Conceptual Design with Application in Microfluidic Device Design

Performance and manufacturability are two important issues that must be taken into account during MEMS design. Existing MEMS design models or systems follow a process-driven design paradigm, that is, design starts from the specification of process sequence or the customization of foundry-ready process template. There has been essentially no methodology or model that supports generic, high-level design synthesis for MEMS conceptual design. As a result, there lacks a basis for specifying the initial process sequences. To address this problem, this paper proposes a performance-driven, microfabrication-oriented methodology for MEMS conceptual design. A unified behaviour representation method is proposed which incorporates information of both physical interactions and chemical/biological/other reactions. Based on this method, a behavioural process based design synthesis model is proposed, which exploits multidisciplinary phenomena for design solutions, including both the structural components and their configuration for the MEMS device, as well as the necessary substances for the chemical/biological/other reactions. The model supports both forward and backward synthetic search for suitable phenomena. To ensure manufacturability, a strategy of using microfabrication-oriented phenomena as design knowledge is proposed, where the phenomena are developed from existing MEMS devices that have associated MEMS-specific microfabrication processes or foundry-ready process templates. To test the applicability of the proposed methodology, the paper also studies microfluidic device design and uses a micro-pump design for the case study.

Compositional hypotheses of subcompositional stability and specific perturbation change and their testing

In standard multivariate statistical analysis common hypotheses of interest concern changes in mean vectors and subvectors. In compositional data analysis it is now well established that compositional change is most readily described in terms of the simplicial operation of perturbation and that subcompositions replace the marginal concept of subvectors. To motivate the statistical developments of this paper we present two challenging compositional problems from food production processes. Against this background the relevance of perturbations and subcompositions can be clearly seen. Moreover we can identify a number of hypotheses of interest involving the specification of particular perturbations or differences between perturbations and also hypotheses of subcompositional stability. We identify the two problems as being the counterpart of the analysis of paired comparison or split plot experiments and of separate sample comparative experiments in the jargon of standard multivariate analysis. We then develop appropriate estimation and testing procedures for a complete lattice of relevant compositional hypotheses

Geoprocesamiento con SQL en OrbisGIS

OrbisGIS dispone de un lenguaje que permite la manipulación de datos de forma independiente al formato. Éste se ajusta al estándar SQL92 (Lenguaje de Consulta Estructurado) y se extiende espacialmente según el OGC simple features SQL specification, lo que permite un alto nivel de compatibilidad con sistemas de bases de datos tradicionales como PostgreSQL/PostGIS. Habitualmente el SQL es procesado en servidores, sin embargo este artículo presentará cómo puede aplicarse en el cliente, principalmente para la definición y utilización de geoprocesos. La aplicación del SQL más inmediata es la manipulación de las fuentes de datos especificando una serie de instrucciones o script. Aparte, la implementación de SQL de OrbisGIS permite la parametrización de estos scripts de manera que pueden ser reutilizados con diferentes fuentes de datos y sin necesidad de conocer el proceso internamente. La reutilización puede darse tanto como ejecución del script como inclusión en un constructor de modelos que permite encadenar múltiples scripts dando lugar a un nuevo proceso más complejo. Por otra parte, el uso de disparadores permite la definición de reglas de validación mediante instrucciones SQL. Es posible definir reglas topológicas (entre otras) que definan relaciones entre dos o más fuentes de datos y que controlarán el proceso de edición tanto espacial como alfanumérico. Para finalizar, la especificación de vistas (en el sentido de los SGBD) permite reducir la redundancia en los datos y realizar algunas aplicaciones interesantes como la visualización de la evolución de los distintos imperios a lo largo de la historia

Sistema multimodal para la planificación de viajes en transportes públicos de código abierto y basado en estándares 'de facto' = A multimodal journey planner based on open source software and 'de facto' standards

Este artículo muestra cómo con bajo coste y riesgo se puede desarrollar un sistema de planificación de viaje multimodal, basado en un enfoque de código abierto y estándares ‘de facto’. Se ha desarrollado completamente una solución de código abierto para un sistema de información de transporte público puerta a puerta basado en estándares ‘de facto’. El cálculo de rutas se realiza mediante Graphserver, mientras que la cartografía se basa en OpenStreetMap. También se ha demostrado cómo exportar una base de datos real de horarios de transporte público como la del operador ETM (Empresa de Transporte Metropolitano de València) a la especificación de Google Transit, para permitir el cálculo de rutas, tanto desde nuestro prototipo como desde Google Transit

Simultaneous estimation of indirect and interaction effects using structural equation models

Interaction effects are usually modeled by means of moderated regression analysis. Structural equation models with non-linear constraints make it possible to estimate interaction effects while correcting for measurement error. From the various specifications, Jöreskog and Yang's (1996, 1998), likely the most parsimonious, has been chosen and further simplified. Up to now, only direct effects have been specified, thus wasting much of the capability of the structural equation approach. This paper presents and discusses an extension of Jöreskog and Yang's specification that can handle direct, indirect and interaction effects simultaneously. The model is illustrated by a study of the effects of an interactive style of use of budgets on both company innovation and performance