Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.

Increasing prevalence of obesity in the Seychelles and association with socioeconomic status

Objective: We assessed the 15-year trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) categories in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African Region) and the relationship with sex, age and socio-economic status (SES). Methods: We conducted three population-based examination surveys in 1989 (n=1,081; participation rate: 86.4%), in 1994 (n=1,067; 87.0%), and in 2004 (n=1,255; 80.2%). Occupation was categorized as "laborer", "intermediate" or "professional". Results are adjusted to the population of 2002. Results: Between 1989 and 2004, mean BMI increased markedly in all sex and age categories (overall: ∼0.15 kg/m2/calendar year). The prevalence of overweight and obesity combined ("excess weight", BMI ≥25 kg/m2) increased from 29% to 52% in men and from 50% to 67% in women. The prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) increased from 4% to 15% in men and from 23% to 34% in women. Mean BMI - respectively the prevalence of excess weight- was lower in laborers than professionals in men but higher in laborers that professionals in women and this pattern was similar in the three surveys. Odds ratios for excess weight in professionals vs. laborers were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.94-2.17) in men and 0.51 (0.48-0.53) in women, adjusting for calendar year and participants' age and smoking habits. Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight/obesity increased markedly during a 15- year period. Similar increase of BMI over time in all age and sex categories suggests common environment obesogenic factors. The association between SES and excess weight was in opposite directions in men and women. The study emphasizes the need for prevention measures in all sex, age and SES groups, and suggests that they should be tailored according to sex and SES categories.

Temporal and spatial origin of Gesneriaceae in the New World inferred from plastid DNA sequences

Gesneriaceae are represented in the New World (NW) by a major clade (c. 1000 species) currently recognized as subfamily Gesnerioideae. Radiation of this group occurred in all biomes of tropical America and was accompanied by extensive phenotypic and ecological diversification. Here we performed phylogenetic analyses using DNA sequences from three plastid loci to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Gesnerioideae and to investigate its relationship with other lineages of Gesneriaceae and Lamiales. Our molecular data confirm the inclusion of the South Pacific Coronanthereae and the Old World (OW) monotypic genus Titanotrichum in Gesnerioideae and the sister-group relationship of this subfamily to the rest of the OW Gesneriaceae. Calceolariaceae and the NW genera Peltanthera and Sanango appeared successively sister to Gesneriaceae, whereas Cubitanthus, which has been previously assigned to Gesneriaceae, is shown to be related to Linderniaceae. Based on molecular dating and biogeographical reconstruction analyses, we suggest that ancestors of Gesneriaceae originated in South America during the Late Cretaceous. Distribution of Gesneriaceae in the Palaeotropics and Australasia was inferred as resulting from two independent long-distance dispersals during the Eocene and Oligocene, respectively. In a short time span starting at 34 Mya, ancestors of Gesnerioideae colonized several Neotropical regions including the tropical Andes, Brazilian Atlantic forest, cerrado, Central America and the West Indies. Subsequent diversification within these areas occurred largely in situ and was particularly extensive in the mountainous systems of the Andes, Central America and the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Only two radiations account for 90% of the diversity of Gesneriaceae in the Brazilian Atlantic forest, whereas half of the species richness in the northern Andes and Central America originated during the last 10 Myr from a single radiation.

Crocidura cossyrensis Contoli, 1989 (Mammalia, Soridiae): karyotype, biochemical genetics and hybridization experiments

Crocidura cossyrensis Contoli, 1989 (Mammalia, Soricidae): karyotype, biochemical genetics and hybridization experiments. - The shrew Crocidura cossyrensis Contoli, 1989 from Pantelleria (I), a Mediterranean island 100 km south of Sicily and 70 km west from Tunisia, was investigated in order to understand its origin and its relationship with C. russula from Tunisia, Morocco and Switzerland. With the exception of a single heterozygote centric fusion, C. cossyrensis had a karyotype identical with that of C russula from Tunisia (2N = 42, NF = 70 to 72), but it differed from C russula from Morocco and Switzerland (2N = 42, NF = 60). The former have 5-6 pairs of chromosomes with small arms that are acrocentric in the latter. Genetic comparisons with allozyme data revealed small genetic distance (0.04) between C cossyrensis and C russula from Tunisia. In contrast, this eastern clade (Tunisia and Pantelleria) is separated from the western clade (Switzerland and Morocco) by a genetic distance of 0.14. A hybridization experiment between shrews from Pantelleria and Switzerland lead rapidly to an F1 generation. From 12 F1 hybrids that were backcrossed, females reproduced normally, but none of the males did so. Concluding from the results, C. cossyrensis from Pantelleria and C. russula cf. agilis from Tunisia belong to the same taxon that may have reached the differentiation of a biological species within the C. russula group. More geographic samples are needed to determine the definitive taxonomic positions of these shrews.

Determination of testosterone misuse in sport, an international comparative study

Introduction: Urinary steroid profiling is used in doping controls to detect testosterone abuse. A testosterone over epitestosterone (T/E) ratio exceeding 4.0 is considered as suspicious of testosterone administration, irrespectively of individual heterogeneous factors such as the athlete's ethnicity. A deletion polymorphism in the UGT2B17 gene was demonstrated to account for a significant part of the inter-individual variability in the T/E between Caucasians and Asians. However, the anti-doping strategy includes the determination of carbon isotope ratio on androgen metabolites which has been demonstrated to be reliable for the direct detection of testosterone misuse. Herein, we examined the profiles and the variability in the 13C/12Cratios of urinary steroids in a widely heterogeneous cohort of professional soccer players residing in different world countries (Argentina, Italy, Japan, South-Africa, Switzerland and Uganda). Aim: The determination of threshold values based on genotype information and diet specific of the ethnicity is expected to enhance significantly the detection of testosterone misuse. Methods: The steroid profile of 57 Africans, 32 Asians, 50 Caucasians and 32 Hispanics was determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The carbon isotope ratio of selected androgens in urine specimens were determined by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). Results: Significant differences have been observed between all ethnic groups. After estimation of the prevalence of the UGT2B17 deletion/deletion genotype (African:22%; Asian:81%; Caucasian:10%; Hispanic:7%), ethnicspecific thresholds were developed for a specificity of 99% for the T/E (African:5.6; Asian:3.8; Caucasian:5.7; Hispanic:5.8). Italian and Swiss populations recorded an enrichment in 13C of the urinary steroids with respect to the other groups, thereby supporting consumption of a relatively larger proportion of C3 plants in their diet. Noteworthy, detection criteria based on the difference in the carbon isotope ratio of androsterone and pregnanediol for each population were well below the established threshold value for positive cases. Conclusion: These profiling results demonstrate that a unique and nonspecific threshold to evidence testosterone misuse is not fit for purpose. In addition, the carbon isotopic ratio from these different diet groups highlight the importance to adapt the criteria for increasing the sensitivity in the detection of exogenous testosterone. In conclusion, it may be emphasized that combining the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry including refined interpretation criteria for positivity and the subject-based profiling of steroids will most probably improve the efficiency of the confirmatory test.

Genetic Variants of Serum Uric Acid and Gout: An Analysis of > 170,000 Individuals

Background/Purpose: Gout is a common and excruciatingly painful inflammatory arthritis caused by hyperuricemia. In addition to various lifestyle risk factors, a substantial genetic predisposition to gout has long been recognized. The Global Urate Genetics Consortium (GUGC) has aimed to comprehensively investigate the genetics of serum uric acid and gout using data from _ 140,000 individuals of European-ancestry, 8,340 individuals of Indian ancestry, 5,820 African-Americans, and 15,286 Japanese. Methods: We performed discovery GWAS meta-analyses of serum urate levels (n_110,347 individuals) followed by replication analyses (n_32,813 different individuals). Our gout analysis involved 3,151 cases and 68,350 controls, including 1,036 incident gout cases that met the American College of Rheumatology Criteria. We also examined the association of gout with fractional excretion of uric acid (n_6,799). A weighted genetic urate score was constructed based on the number of risk alleles across urate-associated loci, and their association with the risk of gout was evaluated. Furthermore, we examined implicated transcript expression in cis (expression quantitative trait loci databases) for potential insights into the gene underlying the association signal. Finally, in order to further identify urate-associated genomic regions, we performed functional network analyses that incorporated prior knowledge on molecular interactions in which the gene products of implicated genes operate. Results: We identified and replicated 28 genome-wide significant loci in association with serum urate (P 5_10_8), including all previously-reported loci as well as 18 novel genetic loci. Unlike the majority of previouslyidentified loci, none of the novel loci appeared to be obvious candidates for urate transport. Rather, they were mapped to genes that encode for purine production, transcription, or growth factors with broad downstream responses. Besides SLC2A9 and ABCG2, no additional regions contained SNPs that differed significantly (P _ 5_10_8) between sexes. Urateincreasing alleles were associated with an increased risk of gout for all loci. The urate genetic risk score (ranging from 10 to 45) was significantly associated with an increased odds of prevalent gout (OR per unit increase, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.09-1.14) and incident gout (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.08-1.13). Associations for many of the loci were of similar magnitude in individuals of non-European ancestry. Detailed characterization of the loci revealed associations with transcript expression and the fractional excretion of urate. Network analyses implicated the inhibins-activins signaling pathways and glucose metabolism in systemic urate control. Conclusion: The novel genetic candidates identified in this urate/gout consortium study, the largest to date, highlight the importance of metabolic control of urate production and urate excretion. The modulation by signaling processes that influence metabolic pathways such as glycolysis and the pentose phosphate pathway appear to be central mechanisms underpinned by the novel GWAS candidates. These findings may have implications for further research into urate-lowering drugs to treat and prevent gout.

Relationship between soil oxidizable carbon and physical, chemical and mineralogical properties of umbric ferralsols

The occurrence of Umbric Ferralsols with thick umbric epipedons (> 100 cm thickness) in humid Tropical and Subtropical areas is a paradox since the processes of organic matter decomposition in these environments are very efficient. Nevertheless, this soil type has been reported in areas in the Southeast and South of Brazil, and at some places in the Northeast. Aspects of the genesis and paleoenvironmental significance of these Ferralsols still need a better understanding. The processes that made the umbric horizons so thick and dark and contributed to the preservation of organic carbon (OC) at considerable depths in these soils are of special interest. In this study, eight Ferralsols with a thick umbric horizon (UF) under different vegetation types were sampled (tropical rain forest, tropical seasonal forest and savanna woodland) and their macromorphological, physical, chemical and mineralogical properties studied to detect soil characteristics that could explain the preservation of high carbon amounts at considerable depths. The studied UF are clayey to very clayey, strongly acidic, dystrophic, and Al-saturated and charcoal fragments are often scattered in the soil matrix. Kaolinites are the main clay minerals in the A and B horizons, followed by abundant gibbsite and hydroxyl-interlayered vermiculite. The latter was only found in UFs derived from basalt rock in the South of the country. Total carbon (TC) ranged from 5 to 101 g kg-1 in the umbric epipedon. Dichromate-oxidizable organic carbon represented nearly 75 % of TC in the thick A horizons, while non-oxidizable C, which includes recalcitrant C (e.g., charcoal), contributed to the remaining 25 % of TC. Carbon contents were not related to most of the inorganic soil variables studied, except for oxalate-extractable Al, which individually explained 69 % (P < 0.001) of the variability of TC in the umbric epipedon. Clay content was not suited as predictor of TC or of the other studied C forms. Bulk density, exchangeable Al3+, Al saturation, ECEC and other parameters obtained by selective extraction were not suitable as predictors of TC and other C forms. Interactions between organic matter and poorly crystalline minerals, as indicated by oxalate-extractable Al, appear to be one of the possible organic matter protection mechanisms of these soils.

Immune activation alters cellular and humoral responses to yellow fever 17D vaccine.

Background. Defining the parameters that modulate vaccine responses in African populations will be imperative to design effective vaccines for protection against HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and dengue virus infections. This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of the patient-specific immune microenvironment to the response to the licensed yellow fever vaccine 17D (YF-17D) in an African cohort. Methods. We compared responses to YF-17D in 50 volunteers in Entebbe, Uganda, and 50 volunteers in Lausanne, Switzerland. We measured the CD8+ T cell and B cell responses induced by YF-17D and correlated them with immune parameters analyzed by flow cytometry prior to vaccination. Results. We showed that YF-17D-induced CD8+ T cell and B cell responses were substantially lower in immunized individuals from Entebbe compared with immunized individuals from Lausanne. The impaired vaccine response in the Entebbe cohort associated with reduced YF-17D replication. Prior to vaccination, we observed higher frequencies of exhausted and activated NK cells, differentiated T and B cell subsets and proinflammatory monocytes, suggesting an activated immune microenvironment in the Entebbe volunteers. Interestingly, activation of CD8+ T cells and B cells as well as proinflammatory monocytes at baseline negatively correlated with YF-17D-neutralizing antibody titers after vaccination. Additionally, memory T and B cell responses in preimmunized volunteers exhibited reduced persistence in the Entebbe cohort but were boosted by a second vaccination. Conclusion. Together, these results demonstrate that an activated immune microenvironment prior to vaccination impedes efficacy of the YF-17D vaccine in an African cohort and suggest that vaccine regimens may need to be boosted in African populations to achieve efficient immunity. Trial registration. Registration is not required for observational studies. Funding. This study was funded by Canada's Global Health Research Initiative, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and United States Agency for International Development.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Combined use of the GGSFT data base and on Board Marine Collected Data to Model the Moho Beneath the Powell Basin, Antarctica

The Powell Basin is a small oceanic basin located at the NE end of the Antarctic Peninsula developed during the Early Miocene and mostly surrounded by the continental crusts of the South Orkney Microcontinent, South Scotia Ridge and Antarctic Peninsula margins. Gravity data from the SCAN 97 cruise obtained with the R/V Hespérides and data from the Global Gravity Grid and Sea Floor Topography (GGSFT) database (Sandwell and Smith, 1997) are used to determine the 3D geometry of the crustal-mantle interface (CMI) by numerical inversion methods. Water layer contribution and sedimentary effects were eliminated from the Free Air anomaly to obtain the total anomaly. Sedimentary effects were obtained from the analysis of existing and new SCAN 97 multichannel seismic profiles (MCS). The regional anomaly was obtained after spectral and filtering processes. The smooth 3D geometry of the crustal mantle interface obtained after inversion of the regional anomaly shows an increase in the thickness of the crust towards the continental margins and a NW-SE oriented axis of symmetry coinciding with the position of an older oceanic spreading axis. This interface shows a moderate uplift towards the western part and depicts two main uplifts to the northern and eastern sectors.

Molecular phylogeography of the nose-horned viper (Vipera ammodytes, Linnaeus (1758)): evidence for high genetic diversity and multiple refugia in the Balkan peninsula

The nose-horned viper (Vipera ammodytes) occurs in a large part of the south-eastern Europe and Asia Minor. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed for a total of 59 specimens using sequences from three mitochondrial regions (16S and cytochrome b genes, and control region, totalling 2308 bp). A considerable number of clades were observed within this species, showing a large genetic diversity within the Balkan peninsula. Splitting of the basal clades was evaluated to about 4 million years ago. Genetic results are in contradiction with presently accepted taxonomy based on morphological characters: V. a. gregorwallneri and V. a. ruffoi do not display any genetic difference compared with the nominotypic subspecies (V. a. ammodytes), involving that these subspecies can be regarded as synonyms. High genetic divergence in the central part of the Balkan peninsula is not concordant with low morphological differentiation. Finally, the extensive genetic diversity within the Balkan peninsula and the colonisation routes are discussed

Genotype and environment interaction on soybean yield in Mato Grosso State, Brazil

The objective of this work was to investigate the genotype-environment interaction in Mato Grosso State, MT. The relative importance of locations, years, sowing dates and cultivars and their interactions was analyzed from data collected in regional yield trials performed in a randomized complete block design with four replications, from 1994-1995 through 1999-2000, in nine locations and two sowing dates. Individual and pooled analyses of variance over years and locations were performed. Complementary analyses of variances partitioned MT State in two main and five smaller regions, respectively: North and South of Cuiabá; and MT-South-A (Pedra Preta area), MT-South-B (Rondonópolis and Itiquira), MT-East (Primavera do Leste and Campo Verde), MT-Central (Nova Mutum, Lucas do Rio Verde and Sorriso) and MT-Parecis (Campo Novo dos Parecis and Sapezal). Locations are relatively more important than years for yield testing soybeans in the MT State, therefore, investment should be made in increasing locations rather than years to improve experimental precision. Partitioning the MT State into regions has little impact on soybean yield testing results and, consequently, on the efficiency of the soybean breeding program in the State. Breeding genotypes with broad adaptation for the MT State is an efficient strategy for cultivar development.

Use of hand-to-hand impedancemetry to predict body composition of African women as measured by air displacement plethysmography.

OBJECTIVES: To test the validity of a simple, rapid, field-adapted, portable hand-held impedancemeter (HHI) for the estimation of lean body mass (LBM) and percentage body fat (%BF) in African women, and to develop specific predictive equations. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. SETTINGS: Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, West Africa. SUBJECTS: A total sample of 146 women volunteered. Their mean age was of 31.0 y (s.d. 9.1), weight 60.9 kg (s.d. 13.1) and BMI 22.6 kg/m(2) (s.d. 4.5). METHODS: Body composition values estimated by HHI were compared to those measured by whole body densitometry performed by air displacement plethysmography (ADP). The specific density of LBM in black subjects was taken into account for the calculation of %BF from body density. RESULTS: : Estimations from HHI showed a large bias (mean difference) of 5.6 kg LBM (P<10(-4)) and -8.8 %BF (P<10(-4)) and errors (s.d. of the bias) of 2.6 kg LBM and 3.7 %BF. In order to correct for the bias, specific predictive equations were developed. With the HHI result as a single predictor, error values were of 1.9 kg LBM and 3.7 %BF in the prediction group (n=100), and of 2.2 kg LBM and 3.6 %BF in the cross-validation group (n=46). Addition of anthropometrical predictors was not necessary. CONCLUSIONS: The HHI analyser significantly overestimated LBM and underestimated %BF in African women. After correction for the bias, the body compartments could easily be estimated in African women by using the HHI result in an appropriate prediction equation with a good precision. It remains to be seen whether a combination of arm and leg impedancemetry in order to take into account lower limbs would further improve the prediction of body composition in Africans.

Attitudes and beliefs of palliative care physicians regarding communication with terminally ill cancer patients.

The subject of communication between palliative care physicians and their patients regarding their diagnosis and prognosis has not been extensively researched. The purpose of this survey was to compare the attitudes and beliefs of palliative care specialists regarding communication with the terminally ill in Europe, South America, and Canada. A sample of palliative care physicians from South America (Argentina and Brazil), French-speaking Europe, and Canada were identified, and posted a questionnaire. Physicians who stated that they practised palliative care at least 30% of their time were considered evaluable as palliative care specialists. Of a total of 272 questionnaires, 228 were returned (84%); and 182/228 (81%) respondents were considered to be palliative care specialists. Palliative care physicians in all three regions believed that cancer patients should be informed of their diagnosis and the terminal nature of their illness. Physicians reported that at least 60% of their patients knew their diagnosis and the terminal stage of their illness in 52% and 24% of cases in South America, and 69% and 38% of cases in Europe, respectively. All physicians agreed that 'do not resuscitate' orders should be present, and should be discussed with the patient in all cases. While 93% of Canadian physicians stated that at least 60% of their patients wanted to know about the terminal stage of their illness, only 18% of South American, and 26% of European physicians said this (P < 0.001). Similar results were found when the physicians were asked the percentage of families who want patients to know the terminal stage of their illness. However, almost all of the physicians agreed that if they had terminal cancer they would like to know. There was a significant association between patient based decision-making and female sex (P = 0.007), older age (P = 0.04), and physicians from Canada and South America (P < 0.001). Finally, in their daily decision making, South American physicians were significantly more likely to support beneficence and justice as compared with autonomy. Canadian physicians were more likely to support autonomy as compared with beneficence. In summary, our findings suggest that there are major regional differences in the attitudes and beliefs of physicians regarding communication at the end of life. More research is badly needed on the attitudes and beliefs of patients, families, and health care professionals in different regions of the world.

Prevalence of overweight in the Seychelles: 15 year trends and association with socio-economic status.

We assessed the 15-year trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalence of overweight in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African Region) and the relationship with socio-economic status (SES). Three population-based examination surveys were conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Occupation was categorized as 'labourer', 'intermediate' or 'professional'. Education was also assessed in 1994 and 2004. Between 1989 and 2004, mean BMI increased markedly in all sex and age categories (overall: 0.16 kg m(-2) per calendar year, which corresponds to 0.46 kg per calendar year). The prevalence of overweight (including obesity, BMI >or= 25 kg m(-2)) increased from 29% to 52% in men and from 50% to 67% in women. The prevalence of obesity (BMI >or= 30 kg m(-2)) increased from 4% to 15% in men and from 23% to 34% in women. Overweight was associated inversely with occupation in women and directly in men in all surveys. In multivariate analysis, overweight was associated similarly (direction and magnitude) to occupation and education. In conclusion, the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity over time in all age, sex and SES categories suggests large-scale changes in societal obesogenic factors. The sex-specific association of SES with overweight suggests that prevention measures should be tailored accordingly.