Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

A VOICE OF THEIR OWN: MUSIC AND SOCIAL COHESION IN TURKISH ALEVI LIFE

This dissertation examines the role that music has played in the expression of identity and revitalization of culture of the Alevis in Turkey, since the start of their sociocultural revival movement in the late 1980s. Music is central to Alevi claims of ethnic and religious difference—singing and playing the bağlama (Turkish folk lute) constitutes an expressive practice in worship and everyday life. Based on research conducted from 2012 to 2014, I investigate and present Alevi music through the lens of discourses on the construction of identity as a social and musical process. Alevi musicians perform a revived repertoire of the ritual music and folk songs of Anatolian bards and dervish-lodge poets that developed over several centuries. Contemporary media and performance contexts have blurred former distinctions between sacred and secular, yet have provided new avenues to build community in an urban setting. I compare music performances in the worship services of urban and small-town areas, and other community events such as devotional meetings, concerts, clubs, and broadcast and social media to illustrate the ways that participation—both performing and listening—reinforces identity and solidarity. I also examine the influence of these different contexts on performers’ musical choices, and the power of music to evoke a range of responses and emotional feelings in the participants. Through my investigation I argue that the Alevi music repertoire is not only a cultural practice but also a symbol of power and collective action in their struggle for human rights and self-determination. As Alevis have faced a redefined Turkish nationalism that incorporates Sunni Muslim piety, this music has gained even greater potency in their resistance to misrecognition as a folkloric, rather than a living, tradition.

Cage & Partch with Luke Fitzpatrick Adapted Viola, Intoning Voice and Violin December 2, 2016

Concert Program

Reducing MRI gradient coil vibration with rib stiffeners

This work investigates the effect of rib stiffeners on the free and forced vibration of a gradient coil in a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scanner. Several reinforcement schemes are studied in this paper. One scheme utilizes the existing holes in the gradient coil structure (typically reserved for magnetic shims) to produce the reinforcement. Non-ferrous, non-magnetic carbon fibre rib stiffeners are employed to fill these holes in several ways to strengthen a gradient coil. Another scheme replaces the inner half of the gradient coil material with a grid of interconnected axial and circumferential rib stiffeners. It is found that the structural stiffness of the gradient coil increases substantially when the coil is reinforced by carbon fibre rib stiffeners. The reinforcement affects the noise and vibration response of the gradient coil structure in the following ways. It increases the frequency range of forced response of the gradient coil at low frequencies due to the increased resonant frequency of the fundamental mode of the coil. Secondly, it reduces the forced response amplitude of the coil structure (which is governed by the structural stiffness of the coil). Thirdly, it reduces the number of natural modes in the low and medium frequency range and therefore lessens the chance of the coil structure being excited resonantly by magnetic resonance signal acquisition sequences. It is shown that gradient coils modelled by solid finite element models have higher stiffness along the coil’s circumference and lower stiffness in the axial direction than those using shell finite element models.

Visuacy, imagination, and engagement

Australia’s National Review of Visual Education (DEEWR, 2009) asserts the primacy of visual language ability, or ‘visuacy” in problem-solving. This paper reports on a recent university/schools research project with ‘at risk’ middle school students in which visuacy was promoted as a primary medium for obtaining data relating to issues of immediate concern to the students. Using a students-as-researchers approach, the project investigated middle school students’ perspectives on school engagement and disengagement. In this project, novice researchers used a variety of data gathering methods including photography, video interviews and drawn images as well as more traditional verbal methods, such as interviews, and quantitative methods, such as questionnaires. Engaging student imagination was a key focus of the approach taken by the project, acknowledging that student participants may be reluctant to enter dialogue with teachers and researchers on matters to which they have previously had little input. Students who have previously been marginalized and prevented from contributing their voices to educational forums often have difficulty in adjusting to the novelty of collaborative research with adults (Rudduck, 2003) and may be uncertain of their own place in the relationship that defines teacher/student interactions. It is argued that the project’s promotion of visuacy, alongside more traditional literacies and numeracy in education research, helped to overcome these concerns, engaged the imaginations of the student researchers, and provided a medium for the expression of the voices of marginalised young people.

Burden of care and general health in families of patients with schizophrenia

Background: De-institutionalization of psychiatric patients has led to a greater emphasis on family management in the community, and family members are often overwhelmed by the demands that caring for a patient with schizophrenia involves. Most studies of family burden in schizophrenia have taken place in developed countries. The current study examined family burden and its correlates in a regional area of a medium income country in South America. Method: Sixty-five relatives of patients with schizophrenia who were attending a public mental health out-patient service in the province of Arica, Chile, were assessed on Spanish versions of the Zarit Caregiver Burden Scale and SF-36 Health Survey (SF-36). Results: Average levels of burden were very high, particularly for mothers, carers with less education, carers of younger patients and carers of patients with more hospitalisations in the previous 3 years. Kinship and number of recent hospitalisations retained unique predictive variance in a multiple regression. Burden was the strongest predictor of SF-36 subscales, and the prediction from burden remained significant after entry of other potential predictors. Conclusions: In common with families in developed countries, family members of schizophrenia patients in regional Chile reported high levels of burden and related functional and health impact. The study highlighted the support needs of carers in contexts with high rates of poverty and limited health and community resources.

A Numerical Solution Using an Adaptively Preconditioned Lanczos Method for a Class of Linear Systems Related with the Fractional Poisson Equation

This study considers the solution of a class of linear systems related with the fractional Poisson equation (FPE) (−∇2)α/2φ=g(x,y) with nonhomogeneous boundary conditions on a bounded domain. A numerical approximation to FPE is derived using a matrix representation of the Laplacian to generate a linear system of equations with its matrix A raised to the fractional power α/2. The solution of the linear system then requires the action of the matrix function f(A)=A−α/2 on a vector b. For large, sparse, and symmetric positive definite matrices, the Lanczos approximation generates f(A)b≈β0Vmf(Tm)e1. This method works well when both the analytic grade of A with respect to b and the residual for the linear system are sufficiently small. Memory constraints often require restarting the Lanczos decomposition; however this is not straightforward in the context of matrix function approximation. In this paper, we use the idea of thick-restart and adaptive preconditioning for solving linear systems to improve convergence of the Lanczos approximation. We give an error bound for the new method and illustrate its role in solving FPE. Numerical results are provided to gauge the performance of the proposed method relative to exact analytic solutions.

Seismic performance of brick infilled RC frame structures in low and medium rise buildings in Bhutan

The construction of reinforced concrete buildings with unreinforced infill is common practice even in seismically active country such as Bhutan, which is located in high seismic region of Eastern Himalaya. All buildings constructed prior 1998 were constructed without seismic provisions while those constructed after this period adopted seismic codes of neighbouring country, India. However, the codes have limited information on the design of infilled structures besides having differences in architectural requirements which may compound the structural problems. Although the influence of infill on the reinforced concrete framed structures is known, the present seismic codes do not consider it due to the lack of sufficient information. Time history analyses were performed to study the influence of infill on the performance of concrete framed structures. Important parameters were considered and the results presented in a manner that can be used by practitioners. The results show that the influence of infill on the structural performance is significant. The structural responses such as fundamental period, roof displacement, inter-storey drift ratio, stresses in infill wall and structural member forces of beams and column generally reduce, with incorporation of infill wall. The structures designed and constructed with or without seismic provision perform in a similar manner if the infills of high strength are used.

Presentations in English : find your voice as a presenter

With estimates of more than thirty million given each day, presentations have become an integral part of modern society. They can signify the difference between gaining or losing a job, or being successful or unsuccessful at university and a future career. Presentations in English, combining a 128-page book and DVD, is an innovative and complete course aimed specifically at non-native speakers of English.

A brush with the real world : the future of inertial motion capture in live performance

3D Motion capture is a medium that plots motion, typically human motion, converting it into a form that can be represented digitally. It is a fast evolving field and recent inertial technology may provide new artistic possibilities for its use in live performance. Although not often used in this context, motion capture has a combination of attributes that can provide unique forms of collaboration with performance arts. The inertial motion capture suit used for this study has orientation sensors placed at strategic points on the body to map body motion. Its portability, real-time performance, ease of use, and its immunity from line-of-sight problems inherent in optical systems suggest it would work well as a live performance technology. Many animation techniques can be used in real-time. This research examines a broad cross-section of these techniques using four practice-led cases to assess the suitability of inertial motion capture to live performance. Although each case explores different visual possibilities, all make use of the performativity of the medium, using either an improvisational format or interactivity among stage, audience and screen that would be difficult to emulate any other way. A real-time environment is not capable of reproducing the depth and sophistication of animation people have come to expect through media. These environments take many hours to render. In time the combination of what can be produced in real-time and the tools available in a 3D environment will no doubt create their own tree of aesthetic directions in live performance. The case study looks at the potential of interactivity that this technology offers.

Open content creation : the issues of voice and the challenges of listening

This paper examines the proposition that increased ability to have a voice and be listened to, through ‘open ICT4D’ and ‘open content creation’ can be an effective mechanism for development. The paper discusses empirical work that strongly indicates that this only happens when voice is appropriately valued in the development process. Having a voice in development processes are less effective when participation is limited. Open ICT allows for more and more voices to be heard, but it is open ICT4D that has the obligation to ensure voices are listened to. In the paper I first explore participatory development and the idea of open ICT4D before elaborating on issues of voice and thinking about voice as process, and voice as value. Research findings are presented from research that experimented with participatory (or open) content creation, discussed in relation to notions of openness and voice. I then consider the challenges of listening, before drawing some conclusions about opening up ICT4D research.

The trouble with English

So much has been made over the crisis in English literature as field, as corpus, and as canon in recent years, that some of it undoubtedly has spilled over into English education. This has been the case in predominantly English-speaking Anglo-American and Commonwealth nations, as well as in those postcolonial states where English remains the medium of instruction and lingua franca of economic and cultural elites. Yet to attribute the pressures for change in pedagogic practice to academic paradigm shift per se would prop up the shaky axiom that English education is forever caught in some kind of perverse evolutionary time-lag, parasitic of university literary studies. I, too, believe that English education has reached a crucial moment in its history, but that this moment is contingent upon the changing demographics, cultural knowledges, and practices of economic globalization.