Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Economic rationality and ethical behavior

This paper argues that economic rationality and ethical behavior cannotbe reduced one to the other, casting doubts on the validity of formulaslike 'profit is ethical' or 'ethics pays'. In order to express ethicaldilemmas as opposing economic interest with ethical concerns, we proposea model of rational behavior that combines these two irreducible dimensions in an open but not arbitrary manner. Behaviors that are neither ethicalnor profitable are considered irrational (non-arbitrariness). However,behaviors that are profitable but unethical, and behaviors that are ethicalbut not profitable, are all treated as rational (openness). Combiningethical concerns with economic interest, ethical business is in turn anoptimal form of rationality between venality and sacrifice.Because every one prefers to communicate that he acts ethically, ethicalbusiness remains ambiguous until some economic interest is actuallysacrificed. We argue however that ethical business has an interest indemonstrating its consistency between communication and behavior by atransparent attitude. On the other hand, venal behaviors must remainconfidential to hide the corresponding lack of consistency. Thisdiscursive approach based on transparency and confidentiality helpsto further distinguish between ethical and unethical business behaviors.

Occurrence, biology and behavior of Liogenys fuscus Blanchard (Insecta, Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Due to the importance of some Pleurosticti Scarabaeidae as agricultural pests allied to information absence on the species that occur in Brazilian Central-West region, on studies occurrence, biology and behavior on this group of scarabs were conducted. Biology and behavioral studies started with Liogenys fuscus Blanchard, 1850 (Melolonthinae), a very common species and were developed in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul. Adult beetles were collected from light traps from February 2005 to January 2007, at the experimental farm of the Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul in Aquidauana (UEMS). In the laboratory adults were placed in plastic containers with soil with sprouts of Brachiaria decumbens Stapf (Poaceae). Eggs were transferred to a climatized chamber at 26 ± 1º C with a 12hourlight, 12hour darkness photoperiod cycle. Adult flight activity occurred in August and in September to December from 06:00 pm to 06:00 am, with the largest number of individuals flying from 07:00 to 10:00 pm. Eggs measured 1 x 1.5 mm and were laid individually or in groups in soil chambers; eggs were initially white and became yellow near hatching. The embryonic period lasted 14.3 days; first, second and third instars lasted 28.5, 48.8, and 68.2 days, respectively. The prepupal period lasted 120.2 days and the prepupa stayed inactive in soil. The mean duration of pupal stage was 27.5 days and the mean longevity of adults was 23.6 days. In laboratory the calling behavior between males and females was observed; copulation lasted, in mean, 25 minutes.

An evaluation of the life-cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior

In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare andretirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life-cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger.

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Cannabis use as a means of socialization?: new consumption patterns among heavy users

Purpose: After tobacco and alcohol, cannabis is the most used substance among adolescents in Switzerland. Our aim is to assess whether cannabis use has become an ordinary means of socialization. We hypothesize that cannabis consumption has become a normative, although still illegal, behavior. Methods: As part of a larger qualitative study aimed at assessing new ways [patterns] of cannabis consumption, 16 daily cannabis consumers (11 males) and 2 former heavy consumers (both females), aged 15 to 20 years, participated in interviews and focus groups. Data were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using Atlas.ti qualitative analysis software. Results: Most consumers define the beginning of their consumption as a moment when they made new friends. They commonly use cannabis in group settings, which encourages the belief that all adolescents use cannabis. Thus, cannabis is mainly identified as an everyday social act. Joints are smoked like cigarettes: at all times of the day, during or after school or work with peers, often starting at lunch break, and mostly in public places. Friends offer a joint in a group setting, much like beer in a bar, as a means of making contact. Consumption invariably increases while socializing on vacation: "During vacation, we smoke up to 10-15 joints a day; at the end we're just dead." Additionally, in order to obtain cannabis, consumers have to be part of the right networks; they generally have several dealers to assure their supply, buy and sell themselves, or practice group-buying. As a result, all friends or acquaintances of consumers are themselves cannabis users. For instance, 4 boys, who say they are best friends, always smoke together and that, in order to quit, "All four of us should say to ourselves, 'Okay, now, let's all stop smoking'. That would be the only solution. . .but it would be impossible!" The 2 former consumers state that when they started using cannabis, "I found myself little by little in a vicious circle where I saw only people who also smoked". When they quit, they separated from their group of friends: "Either you make new friends who don't smoke or you smoke." Conclusions: Discussions with consumers demonstrate a normative facet of cannabis consumption as part of teenage socialization. Consequently, cannabis consumers develop a significant dependency since a majority of their friends use cannabis and their consumption involves most of their daily social life. Our study highlights the need for clear messages about the harmful aspects of using this substance while also suggesting that cessation efforts should include helping users separate from their consumption milieu. Sources of Support: Dept. of Public Health of the canton of Vaud.

Association of socioeconomic position with health behaviors and mortality

CONTEXT: Previous studies may have underestimated the contribution of health behaviors to social inequalities in mortality because health behaviors were assessed only at the baseline of the study. OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of health behaviors in the association between socioeconomic position and mortality and compare whether their contribution differs when assessed at only 1 point in time with that assessed longitudinally through the follow-up period. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Established in 1985, the British Whitehall II longitudinal cohort study includes 10 308 civil servants, aged 35 to 55 years, living in London, England. Analyses are based on 9590 men and women followed up for mortality until April 30, 2009. Socioeconomic position was derived from civil service employment grade (high, intermediate, and low) at baseline. Smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity were assessed 4 times during the follow-up period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: A total of 654 participants died during the follow-up period. In the analyses adjusted for sex and year of birth, those with the lowest socioeconomic position had 1.60 times higher risk of death from all causes than those with the highest socioeconomic position (a rate difference of 1.94/1000 person-years). This association was attenuated by 42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21%-94%) when health behaviors assessed at baseline were entered into the model and by 72% (95% CI, 42%-154%) when they were entered as time-dependent covariates. The corresponding attenuations were 29% (95% CI, 11%-54%) and 45% (95% CI, 24%-79%) for cardiovascular mortality and 61% (95% CI, 16%-425%) and 94% (95% CI, 35%-595%) for noncancer and noncardiovascular mortality. The difference between the baseline only and repeated assessments of health behaviors was mostly due to an increased explanatory power of diet (from 7% to 17% for all-cause mortality, respectively), physical activity (from 5% to 21% for all-cause mortality), and alcohol consumption (from 3% to 12% for all-cause mortality). The role of smoking, the strongest mediator in these analyses, did not change when using baseline or repeat assessments (from 32% to 35% for all-cause mortality). CONCLUSION: In a civil service population in London, England, there was an association between socioeconomic position and mortality that was substantially accounted for by adjustment for health behaviors, particularly when the behaviors were assessed repeatedly.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Killing by lung cancer or by diabetes? The trade-off between smoking and obesity

As the prevalence of smoking has decreased to below 20%, health practitioners interest has shifted towards theprevalence of obesity, and reducing it is one of the major health challenges in decades to come. In this paper westudy the impact that the final product of the anti-smoking campaign, that is, smokers quitting the habit, had onaverage weight in the population. To these ends, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System,a large series of independent representative cross-sectional surveys. We construct a synthetic panel that allows us tocontrol for unobserved heterogeneity and we exploit the exogenous changes in taxes and regulations to instrumentthe endogenous decision to give up the habit of smoking. Our estimates, are very close to estimates issued in the 90sby the US Department of Health, and indicate that a 10% decrease in the incidence of smoking leads to an averageweight increase of 2.2 to 3 pounds, depending on choice of specification. In addition, we find evidence that the effectovershoots in the short run, although a significant part remains even after two years. However, when we split thesample between men and women, we only find a significant effect for men. Finally, the implicit elasticity of quittingsmoking to the probability of becoming obese is calculated at 0.58. This implies that the net benefit from reducingthe incidence of smoking by 1% is positive even though the cost to society is $0.6 billions.

Imitation of succesful behavior in Cournot markets

In an experimental standard Cournot Oligopoly we test the importance ofmodels of behavior characterized by imitation of succesful behavior. Wefind that the players appear to the rather reluctant to imitate.

First description of reproductive behavior of the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx rutilans (Rambur) (Odonata, Polythoridae)

Polythoridae comprise a widespread group of species in the New World tropics, but little is known about their behavior or life history. Here, we described the reproductive behavior of Amazonian Chalchopteryx rutilans, using mark-recapture techniques. Males were resident and territorial, though we found disputes (complex flight manoeuvres) to be rare. Trunks (rotting wood) were important to male persistence in sites, as these are the locations preferred by females for oviposition. The mating system of C. rutilans may be comparable to the resource limitation category, described by Conrad & Pritchard (1992), where males cannot control female access to oviposition sites. So, female choice becomes important and apparently, the observed displays (in which males flash the coppery coloration of their hind wings) may be related to attraction of females to territories, as in a lek system.

The risk of divorce and household saving behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the savingbehaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of theeffect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the savingbehaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We proposea difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either marriedcouples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish familieswho did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as veryreligious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the riskof divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to saveof married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. Anincrease in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent risein the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.

Dual-energy CT behavior of heroin, cocaine, and typical adulterants.

PURPOSE: To investigate the dual-energy CT behavior of cocaine and heroin and of typical adulterants, and to evaluate the elemental composition of pure cocaine and heroin compared with cocaine and heroin in bodypacks. METHODS: Pure heroin and pure synthetic cocaine samples, eight different adulterants, and in each case ten different bodypacks containing cocaine or heroin, were imaged at 80, 100, 120, and 140 kVp in a dual source CT system at two different degrees of compression. Two radiologists, blinded to the samples, measured the attenuation. The dual-energy index (DEI) was calculated. We performed atomic mass spectrometry for the elemental analysis of pure cocaine, pure heroin, and heroin and cocaine in bodypacks, and 140 kVp in a dual-source CT system. RESULTS: Inter- and intra-observer agreement for attenuation measurements was good (r = 0.61-0.72; p < 0.01). The cocaine bodypacks had a positive DEI of 0.029, while the pure drugs and the heroin bodypacks had a negative DEI (-0.051 to -0.027). Levamisole was the only substance which expressed a positive DEI of 0.011, while the remaining adulterants had negative DEIs ranging between -0.015 and -0.215. Atomic mass spectrometry revealed a concentration of tin in the cocaine bodypack that was 67 times higher than in the pure synthetic cocaine sample. CONCLUSIONS: The different DEIs of bodypacks containing cocaine and heroin allow them to be distinguished with dual-energy CT. Although the material properties of pure cocaine, pure heroin, or common drug extenders do not explain the differences in DEI, tin contamination during illicit natural cocaine production may be a possible explanation.