854 resultados para Simulator of Performance in Error
Resumo:
The primary purpose of this study was to model the partitioning of evapotranspiration in a maize-sunflower intercrop at various canopy covers. The Shuttleworth-Wallace (SW) model was extended for intercropping systems to include both crop transpiration and soil evaporation and allowing interaction between the two. To test the accuracy of the extended SW model, two field experiments of maize-sunflower intercrop were conducted in 1998 and 1999. Plant transpiration and soil evaporation were measured using sap flow gauges and lysimeters, respectively. The mean prediction error (simulated minus measured values) for transpiration was zero (which indicated no overall bias in estimation error), and its accuracy was not affected by the plant growth stages, but simulated transpiration during high measured transpiration rates tended to be slightly underestimated. Overall, the predictions for daily soil evaporation were also accurate. Model estimation errors were probably due to the simplified modelling of soil water content, stomatal resistances and soil heat flux as well as due to the uncertainties in characterising the 2 micrometeorological conditions. The SW’s prediction of transpiration was most sensitive to parameters most directly related to the canopy characteristics such as the partitioning of captured solar radiation, canopy resistance, and bulk boundary layer resistance.
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The introduction of metrics, league tables, performance targets, research assessment exercises and a range of other pressures placed by society, funding bodies and employers on scholars, teachers and students have resulted in diminished value being placed on the essential ethical criterion of truth. The impact of reduced valuation for truth has a huge impact on the standing of science and not least horticultural science in the eyes of the general public at a time when this should be a primary concern. This contribution discusses examples of the impact of diminished valuation of truth, the causes of this phenomenon, the results that come from this situation and remedies that are needed.
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Aims: To describe the phenology and breeding success of one of the densest populations of Short-toed Eagle in Europe. Methods All nests in the Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli forest in northeast Greece were located and visited regularly throughout the 1996-98 breeding seasons. Data on every stage of the breeding cycle were collected and related to among-year variation in the weather conditions during March to June. Results: A total of 58 pairs were located during the three-year study spread across 22 territories (the same territories are usually occupied each year). The nests were evenly spaced (mean of 2.7 km between nests). Adults arrived between mid-March and mid-April. Only one egg per nest was laid. Nestlings fledged on average after 68.9 days. Eagles departed between 8 September and 2 October. Conclusions: Arrival date determines laying date. The population size appears to be stable but the species has a relatively low reproductive rate and takes three to four years to mature, consequently it may be susceptible to stochastic or human-mediated factors.
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The effects of metal contamination on natural populations of Collembola in soils from five sites in the Wolverhampton area ( West Midlands, England) were examined. Analysis revealed that metal concentrations were elevated above background levels at all sites. One location in particular (Ladymoor, a former smelting site) was highly contaminated with Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn at more than 20 times background levels. Biodiversity indices ( Shannon - Weiner, Simpson index, Margalef index, alpha index, species richness, Shaneven ( evenness) and Berger - Parker dominance) were calculated. Of these indices, estimates of species richness and evenness were most effective at highlighting the differences between the Collembola communities. Indeed, the highest number of species were found at the most contaminated site, although the Collembola population also had a comparatively low evenness value, with just two species dominating. The number of individuals per species were allocated into geometric classes and plotted against the cumulative number of species as a percentage. At Ladymoor, there were more geometric classes, and the slope of the line was shallower than at the other four sites. This characteristic is a feature of polluted sites, where a few species are dominant and most species are rare. The Ladymoor soil also had a dominance of Isotomurus palustris, and was the only site in which Ceratophysella denticulata was found. Previous studies have shown that these two species are often found in sites subject to high metal contamination. Survival and reproduction of the "standard'' test springtail, Folsomia candida (Willem), were determined in a 4 week exposure test to soils from all five sites. Mortality was significantly increased in adults and reproduction significantly lower in the Ladymoor soil in comparison to the other four sites. This study has shown that severe metal contamination can be related to the population structure of Collembola in the field, and performance of F. candida ( in soils from such sites) in the laboratory.
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This paper explores how the concept of 'social capital' relates to the teaching of speaking and listening. The argument draws on Bourdieu's notion that a common language is an illusion but posits that an understanding of the grammar of speech can be productive in the development of both an understanding of what constitutes effective speech and the development of competence in speaking. It is argued that applying structuralist notions of written grammar is an inadequate approach to understanding speech acts or enhancing the creative use of speech. An analysis is made of how typical features of speech relate to dramatic dialogue and how the meaning of what is said is contingent upon aural and visual signifiers. On this basis a competent speaker is seen as being one who produces expressions appropriate for a range of situations by intentionally employing such signifiers. The paper draws on research into the way drama teachers make explicit reference to and use of semiotics and dramatic effectiveness in order to improve students' performance and by so doing empower them to increase their social capital. Ultimately, it is concluded that helping students identify, analyse and employ the aural, visual and verbal grammar of spoken English is not an adjunct to the subject of drama, but an intrinsic part of understanding the art form. What is called for is a re-appraisal by drama teachers of their own understanding of concepts relating to speech acts in order to enhance this area of their work.
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Previous research demonstrates that dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) is characterised by deficits of episodic memory, especially in the acquisition of new material. As well as this deficit in acquisition, some researchers have also argued for a deficit in consolidation in DAT. We examined acquisition and consolidation by measuring the intertrial gained and lost access in DAT, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and controls. We report findings from a study of clinical data based on assessment of patients using three free recall trials of a word list. We found that both DAT and MCI groups showed a deficit in acquisition and consolidation of items between trials relative to controls. Moreover, the DAT group was significantly impaired relative to the MCI group for both acquisition and consolidation. Correlations within each group showed that there were strong relationships between intertrial measures and standard measures of memory function. Importantly in no group was there a significant correlation between our measures of acquisition and consolidation: we argue that these measures reflect different underlying processes, and the failure to consolidate in DAT and MCI is not related to the deficit in acquisition. Finally, we showed strong correlations between our measure and dementia severity, suggesting that acquisition and consolidation both get worse as the dementia progresses.
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Objectives: To clarify the role of growth monitoring in primary school children, including obesity, and to examine issues that might impact on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of such programmes. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to July 2005. Experts in the field were also consulted. Review methods: Data extraction and quality assessment were performed on studies meeting the review's inclusion criteria. The performance of growth monitoring to detect disorders of stature and obesity was evaluated against National Screening Committee (NSC) criteria. Results: In the 31 studies that were included in the review, there were no controlled trials of the impact of growth monitoring and no studies of the diagnostic accuracy of different methods for growth monitoring. Analysis of the studies that presented a 'diagnostic yield' of growth monitoring suggested that one-off screening might identify between 1: 545 and 1: 1793 new cases of potentially treatable conditions. Economic modelling suggested that growth monitoring is associated with health improvements [ incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of pound 9500] and indicated that monitoring was cost-effective 100% of the time over the given probability distributions for a willingness to pay threshold of pound 30,000 per QALY. Studies of obesity focused on the performance of body mass index against measures of body fat. A number of issues relating to human resources required for growth monitoring were identified, but data on attitudes to growth monitoring were extremely sparse. Preliminary findings from economic modelling suggested that primary prevention may be the most cost-effective approach to obesity management, but the model incorporated a great deal of uncertainty. Conclusions: This review has indicated the potential utility and cost-effectiveness of growth monitoring in terms of increased detection of stature-related disorders. It has also pointed strongly to the need for further research. Growth monitoring does not currently meet all NSC criteria. However, it is questionable whether some of these criteria can be meaningfully applied to growth monitoring given that short stature is not a disease in itself, but is used as a marker for a range of pathologies and as an indicator of general health status. Identification of effective interventions for the treatment of obesity is likely to be considered a prerequisite to any move from monitoring to a screening programme designed to identify individual overweight and obese children. Similarly, further long-term studies of the predictors of obesity-related co-morbidities in adulthood are warranted. A cluster randomised trial comparing growth monitoring strategies with no growth monitoring in the general population would most reliably determine the clinical effectiveness of growth monitoring. Studies of diagnostic accuracy, alongside evidence of effective treatment strategies, could provide an alternative approach. In this context, careful consideration would need to be given to target conditions and intervention thresholds. Diagnostic accuracy studies would require long-term follow-up of both short and normal children to determine sensitivity and specificity of growth monitoring.
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The iRODS system, created by the San Diego Supercomputing Centre, is a rule oriented data management system that allows the user to create sets of rules to define how the data is to be managed. Each rule corresponds to a particular action or operation (such as checksumming a file) and the system is flexible enough to allow the user to create new rules for new types of operations. The iRODS system can interface to any storage system (provided an iRODS driver is built for that system) and relies on its’ metadata catalogue to provide a virtual file-system that can handle files of any size and type. However, some storage systems (such as tape systems) do not handle small files efficiently and prefer small files to be packaged up (or “bundled”) into larger units. We have developed a system that can bundle small data files of any type into larger units - mounted collections. The system can create collection families and contains its’ own extensible metadata, including metadata on which family the collection belongs to. The mounted collection system can work standalone and is being incorporated into the iRODS system to enhance the systems flexibility to handle small files. In this paper we describe the motivation for creating a mounted collection system, its’ architecture and how it has been incorporated into the iRODS system. We describe different technologies used to create the mounted collection system and provide some performance numbers.
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This paper presents a new strategy for controlling rigid-robot manipulators in the presence of parametric uncertainties or un-modelled dynamics. The strategy combines an adaptation law with a well known robust controller proposed by Spong, which is derived using Lyapunov's direct method. Although the tracking problem of manipulators has been successfully solved with different strategies, there are some conditions under which their efficiency is limited. Specifically, their performance decreases when unknown loading masses or model disturbances are introduced. The aim of this work is to show that the proposed strategy performs better than existing algorithms, as verified with real-time experimental results with a Puma-560 robot. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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System aspects of filter radiometer optics used to sense planetary atmospheres are described. Thus the lenses, dichroic beamsplitters and filters in longwave channels of the Mars Observer PMIRR Pressure Modulator Infrared radiometer instrument are assessed individually, and as systems at 20.7µm, 31.9µm, 47.2µm wavelength. A window filter and a longwave calibration filter of the SCARAB earth observer instrument are assessed similarly.
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Background: Several authors have highlighted areas of overlap in symptoms and impairment among children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and children with specific language impairment (SLI). By contrast, loss of language and broadly defined regression have been reported as relatively specific to autism. We compare the incidence of language loss and language progression of children with autism and SLI. Methods: We used two complementary studies: the Special Needs and Autism Project (SNAP) and the Manchester Language Study (MLS) involving children with SLI. This yielded a combined sample of 368 children (305 males and 63 females) assessed in late childhood for autism, history of language loss, epilepsy, language abilities and nonverbal IQ. Results: language loss occurred in just 1% of children with SLI but in 15% of children classified as having autism or autism spectrum disorder. Loss was more common among children with autism rather than milder ASD and is much less frequently reported when language development is delayed. For children who lost language skills before their first phrases, the phrased speech milestone was postponed but long-term language skills were not significantly lower than children with autism but without loss. For the few who experienced language loss after acquiring phrased speech, subsequent cognitive performance is more uncertain. Conclusions: Language loss is highly specific to ASD. The underlying developmental abnormality may be more prevalent than raw data might suggest, its possible presence being hidden for children whose language development is delayed.
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Nineteen wheat cultivars, released from 1934 to 2000, were grown at two organic and two non-organic sites in each of 3 years. Assessments included grain yield, grain protein concentration, protein yield, disease incidence and green leaf area. The superiority of each cultivar (the sum of the squares of the differences between its mean in each environment and the mean of the best cultivar there, divided by twice the number of environments; CS) was calculated for yield, grain protein concentration and protein yield, and ranked in each environment. The yield and grain protein concentration CS were more closely correlated with cultivar release date at the non-organic sites than at organic sites. This difference may be attributed to higher yield levels with larger differences among cultivars at the non-organic sites, rather than to improved stability (i.e. similar ranks) across sites. The significant difference in the correlation of protein yield CS and cultivar age between organic and non-organic sites would support evidence that the ability to take up mineral nitrogen (N) compared to soil N has been a component of the selection conditions of more modern cultivars (released after 1989). This is supported by assessment of green leaf area (GLA), where more modern cultivars in the non-organic systems had greater late-season GLA, a trend that was not identified in organic conditions. This effect could explain the poor correlation between age and protein yield CS in organic compared to non-organic conditions where modern cultivars are selected to benefit from later nitrogen (N) availability which includes the spring nitrogen applications tailored to coincide with peak crop demand. Under organic management, N release is largely based on the breakdown of fertility-building crops incorporated (ploughed-in) in the previous autumn. The release of nutrients from these residues is dependent on the soil conditions, which includes temperature and microbial populations, in addition to the potential leaching effect of high winter rainfall in the UK. In organic cereal crops, early resource capture is a major advantage for maximizing the utilization of nutrients from residue breakdown. It is concluded that selection of cultivars under conditions of high agrochemical inputs selects for cultivars that yield well under maximal conditions in terms of nutrient availability and pest, disease and weed control. The selection conditions for breeding have a tendency to select cultivars which perform relatively better in non-organic compared to organic systems.
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A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.